Super Rugby Aotearoa, Round Four - teams and predictions

NORTH-SOUTH DERBY: It is not often that the big North Island versus South Island clash has some gloss taken off by a losing streak.

Eden Park hosts this week’s main match, when the defending champions and unbeaten Crusaders make the trip across the Cook Strait to take on the other unbeaten team, the Blues.

However, the build-up to Round Four has been marked by the debate over the Chiefs’ losing streak.

The Hamilton-based franchise was described as “a train wreck” as they stare down the barrel of a record-breaking losing run.

It has been more than a year since the Chiefs last tasted victory, with their last win coming via a 51-14 romp over the Waratahs in Wollongong on March 6, 2020.

Since then, the two-time champions have lost 11 matches in a row in a losing streak that has encompassed a winless Super Rugby Aotearoa campaign last year and a winless start to this season.

Another loss this weekend against the Hurricanes (also winless this year) in Wellington will set the new record for most consecutive defeats suffered by a New Zealand franchise in Super Rugby history.

It is a must-win affair for both teams in Wellington.

However, the Chiefs are the more desperate of the two franchises.

Since 2017, the Chiefs have had four different head coaches – Dave Rennie, Colin Cooper, Warren Gatland and Clayton McMillan – and three different head coaches over the past three years.

The return of Gatland from this year’s British and Irish Lions tour in 2022 will represent the fourth change of coaches in as many years, and pundits believe that is partially to blame for the franchise’s record-equalling losing run.

The Chiefs are listed as underdogs at the bookmakers for this weekend’s clash, but may have reason for optimism given the Hurricanes’ lack of depth in their halfback combination.

A victory for the visitors would prevent them from breaking the Highlanders’ record of 11 winless matches – a feat the Chiefs have now equalled – between 2012 and 2013.

While the Hurricanes don’t have the forward pack of the Crusaders or even the Blues, they still have some handy operators.

Not surprising Chiefs prop Aidan Ross spoke of the need to get hat monkey off their backs.

“We know where we went wrong [in a 17-39 loss to the Crusaders] last week and we’ve done a bloody good job working hard to rectify that this week,” Ross said.

“I don’t think it’s going in there to have the mindset of they’ve got the dominant scrum – we’ve also got to back ourselves and back the players that we’ve got in the pack and take that forward.”

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* Once the argument is settled in Wellington, attention will turn to Auckland and the match between the undoubted title contenders – the Blues and Crusaders.

The Blues have been on the rise since former Crusader Leon MacDonald took over as coach from Tana Umaga ahead of the 2019 season, and will fancy their chances of a long-overdue win on their turf.

Their change in fortune doesn’t surprise the Crusaders’ assistant coach Andrew Goodman, who worked under MacDonald at Tasman, before replacing him when he moved to Auckland.

“He’s a great coach,” Goodman said.

“I’ve got a lot of respect for Leon, he did an amazing job with Tasman, bringing us through to where we are now. He’s gone up there and done a similar job with the Blues.

“First and foremost, he’s a smart operator, he knows the game really well.

“He motivates his team really well, he will lead them and connect them as a group, and have them driving towards the same goal.”

We look at the Round Four action below the video!

Saturday, March 20

Hurricanes v Chiefs
(Wellington Regional Stadium, Wellington – Kick-off: 19.05; 06.05 GMT)

The Hurricanes are undefeated in their last six Super Rugby encounters with the Chiefs (five wins and a draw).

Their last loss to them came in Round 19, 2018.

The Chiefs’ last Super Rugby win against a New Zealand opponent came in Round Two of the 2020 Super Rugby campaign. They have since lost 11 consecutive games against fellow New Zealand teams.

The Hurricanes have conceded just one try in the final quarters of their games in the 2021 Super Rugby Aotearoa campaign, fewer than any other team in the competition.

Du’Plessis Kirifi (Hurricanes) has won four turnovers throughout the 2021 Super Rugby Aotearoa season, more than any other player in the competition and twice as many as any Chiefs player.

Ardie Savea (Hurricanes) has beaten eight defenders this Super Rugby Aotearoa campaign, more than any other forward in the competition.

Head to head

Prediction

@rugby365com: Hurricanes by 11 points

Teams

Hurricanes: 15 Jordie Barrett, 14 Julian Savea, 13 Billy Proctor, 12 Ngani Laumape, 11 Salesi Rayasi, 10 Orbyn Leger, 9 Luke Campbell, 8 Ardie Savea (captain), 7 Du’Plessis Kirifi, 6 Reed Prinsep, 5 Isaia Walker-Leawere, 4 James Blackwell, 3 Tyrel Lomax, 2 Ricky Riccitelli, 1 Xavier Numia.
Replacements: 16 James O’Reilly, 17 Fraser Armstrong, 18 Tevita Mafileo, 19 Liam Mitchell, 20 Devan Flanders, 21 Jonathan Taumateine, 22 Peter Umaga-Jensen, 23 Wes Goosen.

Chiefs: 15 Damian McKenzie, 14 Jonah Lowe, 13 Anton Lienert-Brown, 12 Quinn Tupaea, 11 Etene Nanai-Seturo, 10 Kaleb Trask, 9 Brad Weber (co-captain), 8 Luke Jacobson, 7 Sam Cane (co-captain), 6 Mitchell Brown, 5 Naitoa Ah Kuoi, 4 Tupou Vaa’i, 3 Angus Ta’avao, 2 Samisoni Taukei’aho, 1 Aidan Ross.
Replacements: 16 Bradley Slater, 17 Ollie Norris, 18 Joe Apikotoa, 19 Samipeni Finau, 20 Simon Parker, 21 Te Toiroa Tahuriorangi, 22 Alex Nankivell, 23 Chase Tiatia.

Referee: Ben O’Keeffe
Assistant referees: Mike Fraser, James Doleman
TMO: Glen Newman

Sunday, March 21

Blues v Crusaders
(Eden Park, Auckland – Kick-off: 15.35; 02.35 GMT)

The Crusaders have won their last 12 consecutive completed Super Rugby games against the Blues, including a come-from-behind win when they last met (Round Five 2020 in Super Rugby Aotearoa).

The Blues have won their last five completed home games in Super Rugby.

The last time they won more was a seven-game streak across the 2010 and 2011 campaigns.

The Blues have gained an average of 501 metres per game in the 2021 Super Rugby Aotearoa season after not having gained 500+ metres in any of their 14 games played in 2020.

Otere Black (Blues) has kicked 11/12 goals in the 2021 Super Rugby Aotearoa season, the highest success rate (92 percent) of any player to have made multiple attempts.

Tom Christie (Crusaders) has made 42 tackles this Super Rugby Aotearoa season, the most of any player, while teammate Ethan Blackadder (20/20) has made the most tackles of any player yet to miss a single attempt.

Head to head

Prediction

@rugby365com: Crusaders by five points

Teams

Blues: 15 Stephen Perofeta, 14 Bryce Heem, 13 Rieko Ioane, 12 Harry Plummer, 11 Caleb Clarke, 10 Otere Black, 9 Jonathan Ruru; 8 Hoskins Sotutu, 7 Blake Gibson, 6 Akira Ioane, 5 Josh Goodhue, 4 Patrick Tuipulotu (Captain), 3 Nepo Laulala, 2 Luteru Tolai, 1 Alex Hodgman.
Replacements: 16 Kurt Eklund, 17 Karl Tu’inukuafe, 18 Ofa Tuungafasi, 19 Gerard Cowley-Tuioti, 20 Tom Robinson, 21 Adrian Choat, 22 Finlay Christie, 23 TJ Faiane.

Crusaders: 15 Will Jordan, 14 Sevu Reece, 13 Jack Goodhue, 12 David Havili, 11 Leicester Fainga’anuku, 10 Richie Mo’unga, 9 Bryn Hall, 8 Cullen Grace, 7 Sione Havili Talitui, 6 Ethan Blackadder, 5 Sam Whitelock, 4 Scott Barrett (captain), 3 Michael Alaalatoa, 2 Codie Taylor, 1 Joe Moody
Replacements: 16 Brodie McAlister, 17 George Bower, 18 Oli Jager, 19 Quinten Strange, 20 Whetukamokamo Douglas, 21 Mitchell Drummond, 22 Fergus Burke, 23 Dallas McLeod

Referee: Paul Williams
Assistant referees: Mike Fraser & James Doleman
TMO: Brendon Pickerill

Bye: Highlanders

* Additional reporting by RugbyPass
* Statistical information provided by Stats Perform