Can the Springboks keep the ball?
The Springboks have proven before that they don’t need the majority of possession to win the big games, but will their territory-based approach cut it in the wind and the rain of Wellington this weekend?
The defending world champions have largely stuck with the gameplan that brought them such success in 2009, having added the tactical wiles of Rassie Erasmus and the watertight defensive system developed by defensive specialist Jacques Nienaber in recent times.
But will that approach result in victory over the Wallabies in their World Cup quarterfinal?
It may be far too late to be proposing a change of tack and some will argue that the Boks are at their best when the ball is in front of their forward pack and they are pressurising the opposition into making mistakes in their own half, but surely the Springboks have what it takes to adapt that plan slightly if the need arises?
The Boks played without the ball for most of their opening World Cup clash with Wales and were given the fright of their lives before the Welsh buckled in the big moments, when James Hook missed a penalty and Rhys Priestland yanked a drop-goal attempt wide.
Can Peter de Villiers’s charges afford to give the Wallaby backline the same amount of ball on Sunday? Probably not.
A major strength of the Springboks is their imposing physicality and forward power, the backline may not be as creative as the Wallaby hot-steppers out wide but no team does direct rugby as well as the Boks.
They have shown that in glimpses this year, with the opening exchanges of that narrow victory over Wales a perfect example of how devastating John Smit’s men can be when they make their opponents tackle in their own 22.
Kicking the ball away in the expected conditions on Sunday could make the game more of a lottery and one thing that the Springboks will be desperate for is control.
This is not a Harry Viljoen directive to never kick the ball – clever tactical kicking is crucial but at the same time must put pressure on the opposition rather than gifting them a counter-attacking opportunity with time and space.
It will be up to the halfback combination of Fourie du Preez and Morné Steyn to strike that balance, and the accuracy of their kicking may well determine whether the Boks are able to make the most of the possession that they do get.
With all the powerful ball-carriers at their disposal surely the Springboks can force the Wallabies to tackle (even if it means going the direct route using one-off runners) and put pressure on their defence in order to rack up the points?
Unfortunately the Boks seem to have more confidence in their celebrated defensive system than their ability to keep the ball for an extended period, and they have looked vulnerable at the World Cup when taking the ball up, allowing teams to compete or slow their ball down too easily.
This is reminiscent of the way the Stormers played in Super Rugby – they easily dismissed teams who could not live with their physicality and were forced into making basic errors – but in the big games, like when they faced the Reds and the Crusaders at home, they came up short.
Hopefully the Boks have taken note of how teams have managed to pressurise them at the World Cup, and are able to use their immense physicality to their advantage by forcing the Wallabies to defend and driving them back into their own territory when necessary.
By Michael de Vries
