Double D the key in the play-offs

Discipline and defence, according to experts, are the two key elements going into the play-offs of the World Cup. rugby365.com’s Jan de Koning delves a bit deeper ahead of the RWC quarterfinals.

Last week we looked at discipline, the teams that conceded the least number of penalties and the most penalised teams. (To read the article on discipline, click here.)

However, discipline does not just mean not giving away penalties, it includes being disciplined on defence – keeping the structures and not letting opponent over your tryline.

In this regard, hosts New Zealand are again one of the standout teams, while the defending champions, South Africa, are also near the top of the pile.

There are some major anomalies, or as they say in the classics: ‘Lies, damned lies, and statistics.’

Yes, numbers/statistics can indeed be used to bolster weak arguments, and then there is the tendency of people to disparage statistics that do not support their positions.

However, a look at the defensive statistics of the World Cup, more particularly those eight teams who made it to the play-offs, does make for some interesting reading.

Firstly, the hosts, New Zealand have scored the most points and have the best points differential (points for and against). They also top the pile when it comes to tries scored and conceded. Even their tackle count makes for interesting reading.

However, the most interesting ‘fact’ to come out of analysing the defensive statistics is that some of the teams who came into the tournament with poor form – such as Ireland and South Africa – have emerged unbeaten from the pool stages and are among the best on the defensive ladder.

Ireland lost all four their World Cup warm-up matches and South Africa won just one of their Tri-Nations games, yet they have gone unbeaten through the pool stages at RWC 2011. They are also second and third, respectively, on the list of least tries conceded, while Ireland’s tackle completion count is the best of all teams.

Bizarrely, one of the biggest anomalies is that John Smit’s Springboks are second worst – of the eight teams in the play-offs – when it comes to tackle completion.

However, they have conceded just two tries, with only England (one try) having a better ‘defensive’ record.

Ireland, who are third last on the list for points and tries scored, are still the only outfit to have gone through an entire game without slipping a single tackle.

The main reason why the Boks can miss an extraordinary number of first-time tackles, yet still keep their lines clean is the change in their defensive system. The Jacques Nienaber (Western Province/Stormers defensive guru) system is based on scrambling and with that the Boks have done exceptionally well.

A good case in point is the Boks’ 17-16 win over Wales on the opening weekend of the tournament. South Africa were forced to make 145 tackles, slipping 10 of those. Wales had to make just 88 tackles. However, the Boks still outscored them by two tries to one.

The teams who topped their pools – England (one), South Africa (two), New Zealand (six) and Ireland (three) – have conceded the least number of tries.

The French, perhaps as one would expect, are on the opposite end of the scale.

Of the teams in the play-offs they have the worst tackle completion rate, scored the least points, have the worst points differential and scored the least number of tries. It is probably not surprising that they are also the only side to have lost two games in the pool stages.

With that all in mind, we took a look at some defensive statistics for the teams in the quarterfinals (all teams have played four matches):

Points:
(Under headings for, against and difference)
New Zealand 240 – 49 – 191
Wales 180 – 34 – 146
South Africa 166 – 24 – 142
Australia 173 – 48 – 125
England 137 – 34 – 103
Ireland 135 – 34 – 101
Argentina 90 – 40 – 50
France 124 – 96 – 28

Tries:
(Under headings for, against and difference)
New Zealand 36 – 6 – 30
Australia 25 – 4 – 21
Wales 23 – 4 – 19
South Africa 21 – 2 – 19
England 18 – 1 – 17
Ireland 15 – 3 – 12
Argentina 10 – 3 – 7
France 13 – 9 – 4

Tackles:
(Under headings attempted and missed)
Ireland 248 – 14 (94.4 percent completion rate – missed no tackles in the 36-6 win over Italy)
New Zealand 329 – 19 (94.2 percent)
Australia 327 – 19 (94.2 percent)
Wales 424 – 30 (92.9 percent)
England 373 – 32 (91.4 percent)
Argentina 320 – 31 (90.3 percent)
South Africa 480 – 52 (89.2 percent)
France 391 – 47 (88 percent)

Compiled by Jan de Koning