RWC play-offs: What the experts say...
Even the most astute brains in the game don’t always agree and, for most part, this was the case when rugby365.com approached a handful of experts to ask them for their Rugby World Cup quarterfinal predictions.
We spoke to people like Naas Botha, the legendary former Bok match-winner; André Joubert, the Rolls Royce of fullbacks and a 1995 RWC winner; Rob Louw, the legendary former Bok flank from the amateur era; Robbie Fleck, a former Bok centre and now the WP backline coach; and Heyneke Meyer, the Super Rugby-winning coach and current Bulls boss.
These men agreed about the outcome of just two of the weekend’s four matches – South Africa will beat Australia and New Zealand will demolish Argentina (in both of Sunday’s games).
However. they were divided in their opinions on the two Saturday matches – with Ireland getting the vote by four to one against Wales and England edging France by three votes to two.
WHAT OUR EXPERTS THINK AHEAD OF THE WEEKEND:
Naas Botha’s predictions:
Ireland v Wales: You have the youth of Wales up against the experience of Ireland. The Irish have a lot of players who have played for the British Lions and I think that the experience they have in their side will see them through. That and the form of O’Gara. He is just superb at the moment.
England v France: France are just too disorganised at the moment. We all know that they are capable of beating England but with all the disruptions in their camp, I just can’t see that happening.
South Africa v Australia: It looks like the weather will play a role in the match, which will make tactical kicking quite important. South Africa have a solid scrum and are great at the line-outs. On matchday I’d give the advantage to the Springboks as they are slightly better than Australia at the moment.
New Zealand v Argentina: Argentina might make it difficult for the All Blacks but I can’t see them upsetting New Zealand.
Rob Louw’s predictions:
Ireland v Wales: I believe that Ireland are going to win the game and win it well by at least 10 points, because of the experience they have in the team. Ireland look like a team who will do something special.
England v France: The funny thing is I think France will win! They are so unpredictable and they’ve played so badly that they can just suddenly come up with a win when you’re not expecting it. A lot of guys might laugh at me, but that’s typical French to go an beat England now.
South Africa v Australia: Australia because they don’t have great scrummagers, they suck you into what’s almost a rugby league type of game, and they want to avoid contact and get the ball out. The Springboks can use that to beat the Wallabies the same way that Ireland did – do the basics well, put pressure on the scrum and if you can put Genia and Cooper under pressure they become a very ordinary side.
New Zealand v Argentina: If things are close at half-time then Argentina will run them close, but if New Zealand take an early lead going into the second half then the Argies are in for a hiding.
André Joubert’s predictions:
Ireland v Wales: It’s going to be a very tight game and a hard game to call, but the Welsh are playing well and are on top of their game at the moment. Wales have also had a hard road to the quarterfinals, so this one will come down to the final five or ten minutes and I’ll back the Welsh.
England v France: Up to this stage the French have been dismal and they’ve had disruptions in the camp, but now it’s a big derby against their old enemy the English. If I had a bit of money I’d put it on the French.
South Africa v Australia: We are more of a defensive team than an attacking team, but if we can put some pressure on the Aussies up front and have them on the back foot then we stand a good chance of winning.
New Zealand v Argentina: Unfortunately, Argentina are no match for the All Blacks and they can probably consider themselves lucky to have found themselves there instead of Scotland.
Heyneke Meyer’s predictions:
Ireland v Wales: They are two of the teams that have played the best rugby at the World Cup, and they have produced an expansive game. The big advantage for both is that they are flexible and have the ability to adjust to wet weather conditions, which you get often this time of year in New Zealand. They they are form teams and either one of them can go all the way. They are very close and one moment can turn the game. However, the reason I feel Ireland will pull it off in the end is because Ireland have the more seasoned pack and with Ronan O’Gara there you know they will kicking their penalties. I also know their defensive coach Les Kiss very well and their defence is of the highest order – so my vote will be for Ireland.
England v France: I personally feel the French are not very well conditioned and that is why they are so poor. They are always capable of one bog performance and after the poor performance against Tonga they will be under pressure… which will make them very dangerous. England are not playing great rugby, but like South Africa they know how to play winning rugby. With Wilkinson at flyhalf they should play a tactical game. You can’t beat the French with an expansive game. I’m going for England on this one.
South Africa v Australia: If it is a dry day, with good conditions that allows Australia to speed up the game, they will be very dangerous. If they get ahead and we end up having to chase the game it will be tough – South Africa are not good at chasing games. If we [South Africa] get going then no team in the World can beat us, because we will dominate the scrums and the line-outs, while we also have a solid defence. Australia have also had goalkicking problems, but James O’Connor has showed marked improvement. If they get quick ball on the front foot, and it is a dry day, they will be very tough to beat. My patriotism will take over and I will back South Africa. However, if Australia get any momentum they will be dangerous and I am very wary of them.
New Zealand v Argentina: There is no way Argentina can stop New Zealand. The fact that Dan Carter is not playing always gives the other team a chance, but Argentina are not a shadow of the team that was so impressive at the last World Cup. They have a big, slow set of forwards, but no real magic in the backs. I feel New Zealand will give them a big hiding. If Argentina spoil and slow the game down they will have a chance to keep the score low, but if the All Blacks click they will give the Pumas a big hiding. New Zealand’s tempo will be too much for them.
Robbie Fleck’s predictions:
Ireland v Wales: Ireland to me are the dark-horses at the 2011 World Cup. Gert Smal’s experience – as a World Cup-winning assistant coach – and his nous as a forwards coach are clearly evident. There’s something about them and they have some class in the shape of O’Driscoll and O’Brien. They will have too much for Wales who, themselves, are a very good team.
England v France: Us, as South Africans, have this romantic notion about France as a team capable of upsetting anyone… but that, to me, is based on their passion and ability to bring their big guns into play. I don’t think they have those big guns this time or that passion to call upon. England, like Ireland, are a good team but they don’t seem to be playing to their strengths. They must use their pack and Wilkinson to their advantage. They will beat France.
South Africa v Australia: Australia are a smart team. They will back themselves against us having beaten us at home in the Tri-Nations, but they are not quite on top of their game at the moment. I think we will win and go on to beat New Zealand in the semifinals but it certainly won’t be easy. That (Tri-Nations) win, for the Boks, over the All Blacks in Port Elizabeth has given us our belief back and our defence is rock-solid too – another key aspect. Make no mistake, however; this will be a tough, tough game.
New Zealand v Argentina: Even without Dan Carter, I simply cannot see the All Blacks losing. They should win by about 40 points. They will, however, struggle in the semifinals without Carter.
