The All Blacks: Chokers or champions?

We’re 14 months away from the next Rugby World Cup and New Zealand are sweeping all before them… Heard this story before? Think you know the ending? Jan de Koning investigates whether the All Blacks really are chokers… or not.

Richie McCaw and his All Blacks team will hear this a 100 times – but, in reality, they won’t be able to provide a definitive answer for another 14 months.

The Kiwis are unwavering in their denial that they are, once again, peaking too early – ahead of the World Cup, in New Zealand, next year.

“A lot of people are saying we’re peaking too early, and I think that’s a load of rubbish,” All Blacks assistant coach Steve Hansen told a media gathering in Christchurch this week – when the question was put to him.

“I think you’re only peaking too early if you’ve reached your full potential, and this team hasn’t reached its full potential. So we’ve just got to keep working hard at what we’re trying to do and perfect it even better.”

Hansen might well be right and there is no denying that McCaw’s team is a class act – especially based on present form – having beaten all comers in 2010 thus far and recording an average winning margin of 42-17 in the process.

But, that impressive form aside, there has been a long history of World Cup flops by the Men in Black.

The Kiwis won the inaugural World Cup, on home soil, in 1987.

They have since lost in a final (1995), the semifinals three times (1991, 1999 and 2003), as well as getting knocked out in the quarterfinals in 2007. It clearly rankles in The Land of the Long White Cloud – a proud rugby nation – as it should…

But were they always outright favourites at every tournament? And, one has to ask, how did New Zealand perform the year before each RWC tournament – in 1986, 1990, 1994, 1998, 2002 and 2006?

Strange as it might seem, their best World Cup performance, outside of 1987 – of course, was preceded by one of NZ’s poorest run of results the year before the tournament.

Sean Fitzpatrick’s Class of 1995 lost to the Springboks in the final. However, in 1994 they managed to win just two of their six Tests (a 33 percent success rate). Ironically, both those victories were against South Africa, the team that beat them in the dramatic final – which went into extra-time – the following year.

This ‘choking’ business, or talk, began in 1991 when the defending champions lost to their trans-Tasman rivals – and eventual winners – Australia in the semifinals; that after many had expected them to simply arrive in Europe and defend their title.

Of course, who will forget the 2003 semifinal between the Aussies and the Kiwis, with Wallabies skipper George Gregan barking, “Four more years, four more years”, as the hosts caused a shock in their Last Four fixture? That after the All Blacks had put 50 points past the Aussies and the Boks in the 2003 Tri-Nations.

So, are they chokers?

Well, to make sense of it all, we will look at the All Blacks’ performances in every Rugby World Cup (right up until 2007), comparing it to their form the season before the tournament:

– 1987:
At the World Cup: New Zealand beat France (29-9) in the final.
1986 form: The All Blacks won just three of their six official Tests (a 50 percent record), but the New Zealand Cavaliers also lost the rebel series against the Springboks 1-3. All but two of the 30 players selected for the cancelled 1985 All Black tour of South Africa took part in that series. The two who stayed at home were scrumhalf David Kirk, who captained the All Blacks in the 1987 RWC Final, and wing John Kirwan.

– 1991:
At the World Cup: New Zealand lost to Australia (6-16) in the semifinals.
1990 form: The All Blacks won six of their seven Tests (86 percent success rate). Their only loss was to Australia – 9-21.

– 1995:
At the World Cup: New Zealand lost to South Africa (12-15) in the final.
1994 form: The All Blacks won just two of their six Tests (33 percent success rate). The only team the All Blacks beat in 1994 was the Springboks.

– 1999:
At the World Cup: New Zealand lost to France (31-43) in the semifinals.
1998 form: The All Blacks won just two of their seven Tests (29 percent success rate). They beat England, twice, in the June internationals, but then lost all five their Tri-Nations matches against the Wallabies (who went on to win the World Cup in ’99) and the Springboks.

– 2003:
At the World Cup: New Zealand lost to Australia (10-22) in the semifinals.
2002 form: The All Blacks won eight of their 11 Tests (73 percent success rate). They lost a Tri-Nations match to the Wallabies, then lost to England on the year-end tour (with an under-strength team) and drew with France on the same trip.

– 2007:
At the World Cup: New Zealand lost to France (18-20) in the quarterfinals.
2006 form: The All Blacks won 12 of their 13 Tests (92 percent success rate). Their only loss was to the Springboks, who went on to become the 2007 World Cup champions in France.

What do YOU think – are the All Blacks chokers? Let us know your thoughts below!