Preview - New Zealand v Ireland
All Blacks limbering and lining up tired Irish
Last week in Hamilton you would have expected the Irish to crack after the ease with which Mils Muliaina got past Ronan O'Gara to set up the All Blacks' 43-second try. But it did not happen.
There was no sign of an Irish loss of composure and O'Gara stood firm from then on, so much so that the Irish led 16-8 at the break after a great try when Brian O'Driscoll scooted round Ma'a Nonu – not the first time that the great centre has beaten his man!
Well into the second half Ireland were ahead 23-15 after another great try, this time a real team effort of many phases ended by Trimble.
It is worth recording that to remind ourselves that this Irish side is a good and professional outfit, capable of beating the best.
All that said, the modern All Blacks are startlingly good. They have players, from 15 to 1, who can score tries and they can do it from anywhere on the field.
The All Blacks have made three changes to last week's starting team. Strong, direct Casey Laulala comes in for aggressive Ma'a Nonu at centre, joining his Crusaders' team-mate Aaron Mauger in the midfield. Marty Holah, who was replaced early in the second half last week, yields his position to the man who took his place then, tall Jerome Kaino who is more of a blindside flank than Holah is and could help the line-outs. A second Blues forward, the combative, versatile Troy Flavell, who replaced Greg Rawlinson last week, starts in Rawlinson's place this week. Nonu and Rawlinson are on the bench where Andrew Hore and Craig Newby will also be.
Ireland have no intention of changing their team. They do not have the individual pressure points that the All Blacks have but they do have the most potent individual of them all in O'Driscoll and they have O'Gara to boot points and ground.
The Irish are likely to suffer in the scrums again where their uneven front row will meet a strong and tight All Black trio. Marcus Horan could suffer again.
In the line-outs the Irish would have an edge but not an vastly significant one. Last week they won 4 out of 18 New Zealand throws, while the All Blacks won 2 out of 9 Irish throws. What is most significant in that is the difference in the number of line-outs. That could well be the same this week even if the Auckland weather is inclement. And New Zealand have Kaino to add to their line-out ability – giving them four jumpers.
The All Blacks are likely to have the better of the loose forward battle with Richie McCaw and Rodney So'oialo such outstanding players, though when it comes to forward smash-and-grab the Irish have toughies in Paul O'Connell, Donncha O'Callaghan, Denis Leamy and Jerry Flannery..
The Irish look to have the smoother halfback combinations but muscular Luke McAlister could make life tough for veteran O'Gara and any minders he may have to shore up that early channel.
The theory is that the All Black wings are better but, judged on recent form, Joe Rokocoko and Doug Howlett may not have all that much of an advantage – not at all.
Both fullbacks, Mils Muliaina and Geordan Murphy (if he is over his illness and plays), are men of great talent and sense of adventure. Last week Muliaina was considerably more active, which could be the same this week.
It is interesting that New Zealand's press has started a bit of remote preparation on the referee, Jonathan Kaplan, trying to do to him what the Waratahs did. The Waratahs pointed to their long line of defeats under Kaplan and the New Zealanders have pointed out that the All Blacks have lost more often with Kaplan as referee than with most other referees though the figures (four defeats in nine matches) are less dramatic than those of the Waratahs.
Daniel Gilhooly made a remarkable statement: "The All Blacks lost three of their first four Kaplan tests but have performed better in recent times, including the 45-7 hammering of Ireland in Dublin and the 38-19 third test defeat of the British and Irish Lions last year." So the referee's performance is determined by victory and defeat! He may as well call it a handi-Kaplan.
It is, of course, the players, who are judged by this, and New Zealand, having shaken off the rust last week, should win again, this time with a bit more swagger.
Players to Watch: You will watch Brian O'Driscoll (Ireland), and when you do you will be aware that you are watching an all-time great, a skilful and competitive player able to make much out of little. You will also watch Riche McCaw (New Zealand) who is so much to his team. You will want to see if the Irish do actually cheat to contain him, as has been suggested in some New Zealand quarters.
Head to Head: Scrumhalves always seem to be the perky bantams of the rugby field. Here we have too many who will clash in different ways – smaller Peter Stringer (Ireland) with nagging guile and bigger Byron Kelleher (New Zealand) with aggressive physicality.
There may also be a confrontation at lock between Paul O'Connell (Ireland) one of the best in the world and uncompromising Troy Flavell (New Zealand) as he fights two battles, one to get back into the side and two to contain his wayward inclinations.
Prediction: At least in theory the home side is always better for the second Test of the series – cobwebs swept away and rust removed whereas the visitors have focus perhaps not always game-directed as the eye the warmth of home. In 1992 and 2002 the All Blacks had huge second-Test wins. Let's accept that this professional Irish side will maintain focus and say that the All Blacks will win by more than 15 points.
Results down the years:
2006: New Zealand won 34-23 at Waikato Stadium, Hamilton
2005: New Zealand won 45-7 at Lansdowne Rd, Dublin
2002: New Zealand won 40-8 at Eden Park, Auckland
2002: New Zealand won 15-6 at Carisbrook, Dunedin
2001: New Zealand won 40-29 at Lansdowne Rd, Dublin
1997: New Zealand won 63-15 at Lansdowne Rd, Dublin
1995: New Zealand won 43-19 at Ellis Park, Johannesburg
1992: New Zealand won 59-6 at Athletic Park, Wellington
1992: New Zealand won 24-21 at Carisbrook, Dunedin
1989: New Zealand won 23-6 at Lansdowne Rd, Dublin
1978: New Zealand won 10-6 at Lansdowne Rd, Dublin
1976: New Zealand won 11-3 at Athletic Park, Wellington
1974: New Zealand won 15-6 at Lansdowne Rd, Dublin
1973: draw 10-10 at Lansdowne Rd, Dublin
Teams:
New Zealand: 15 Mils Muliaina, 14 Doug Howlett, 13 Casey Laulala, 12 Aaron Mauger, 11 Joe Rokocoko, 10 Luke McAlister, 9 Byron Kelleher, 8 Rodney So'oialo, 7 Richie McCaw, 6 Jerome Kaino, 5 Troy Flavell, 4 Chris Jack, 3 Carl Hayman, 2 Keven Mealamu, 1 Clarke Dermody.
Replacements: 16 Andrew Hore, 17 Neemia Tialata, 18 Greg Rawlinson, 19 Craig Newby, 20 Jimmy Cowan, 21 David Hill, 22 Ma'a Nonu.
Ireland: 15 Geordan Murphy, 14 Shane Horgan, 13 Brian O'Driscoll (captain), 12 Gordon D'Arcy, 11 Andrew Trimble, 10 Ronan O'Gara, 9 Peter Stringer, 8 Denis Leamy, 7 David Wallace, 6 Neil Best, 5 Paul O'Connell, 4 Donncha O'Callaghan, 4 John Hayes, 2 Jerry Flannery, 1 Marcus Horan.
Replacements: 16 Rory Best, 17 Bryan Young, 18 Mick O'Driscoll, 19 Keith Gleeson, 20 Isaac Boss, 21 Girvan Dempsey, 22 AN Other (The choice of player will depend on Murphy's health)
Date: Saturday, June 11
Kick-off: 19.30 (07.35 GMT)
Venue: Eden Park, Auckland
Expected weather conditions: 70% chance of rain with a high of 17°C and a westerly wind of 32 km/h.
Referee: Jonathan Kaplan (South Africa)
Touch judges: Matt Goddard (Australia), Brett Bowden (Australia)
Television match official: Paul Marks (Australia)
Assessor: Stuart Beissel (New Zealand)
