Preview - South Africa v Scotland

The weight of expectation

Damned if you do, damned if you don't. This is the situation Springbok coach Jake White, and in fact the entire team, find themselves in ahead of the second test against Scotland in Port Elizabeth on Saturday.

After their comprehensive 36-16 (four tries to one) drubbing of Scotland in Durban last week, the weight of expectation is going to be enormous this week.

The unforgiving South African public will demand nothing less than another comprehensive win … maybe even by a bigger margin.

But such a win will bring out calls of a "poor" Scottish team, weak opposition. It is the nature of the beast that calls itself South African rugby.

And should the Boks fail to deliver an equally compelling performance – a win by less than last week's margin of 20 points – the outcry will be even bigger.

It is the proverbial catch-22 situation.

But there is an escape hatch for White and his Boks.

They should focus on the quality of the rugby they play, reproducing the at times awesome performance that they delivered in the first half in Durban last week.

They had plenty of good structure and some really exciting creative moments.

As they say in the classics, do the simple things right and the result will take care of itself.

For Scotland the issue is a lot more simple. They need to improve on last week's showing and reproduce the form that saw them upstage France and England in the Six Nations this year.

The Bok coach, White, is certainly expecting a backlash from the Scots. He feels they are capable of repeating the form they produced at home (in beating England and France) on the road in South Africa.

"We have too much experience to underestimate Scotland," White said. "Scotland is a proud rugby nation and it will be a huge challenge."

White, having left his pack unchanged, expects a far bigger challenge from the visitors up front.

"The forwards will aim to live up to the expectations created by the Scottish challenge," he said.

In order to remove any possibility of an upset and a drawn series, White has urged his backs to be more ruthless.

"We also want to improve our finishing, because we failed to take at least three try-scoring opportunities in the first Test," he said.

Scotland coach Frank Hadden took a gamble and made several changes to his team. However, he is hopeful the experiment will pay dividends.

After being overpowered by the Springboks in Durban last week, Hadden made six changes to the side.

The most significant changes are up front – Alastair Kellock coming in for veteran lock Scott Murray to partner Nathan Hines in the second row. Jon Petrie will start at No.8, which allowed Allister Hogg to move to the openside flank.

The front-row pair of Bruce Douglas and Scott Lawson also made way for Craig Smith and Dougie Hall.

But Hadden insists the alterations will not deter his team from attempting to claim an historic first win on South African soil.

"There was a time not so long ago when Scotland might have been happy coming here and losing by four tries to one, doing better than England did in Australia. But not this group," Hadden said.

"The standard has gone up and there is no doubt we have come here prepared to play and cause an upset.

"I am always tinkering with the starting line-up, but I do believe in continuity.

"I think this is the first time I have made such sweeping changes."

Players to watch:

For the Springboks: Without doubt the spotlight will be firmly on South Africa's new midfield combination of André Snyman and Wynand Olivier. Not only is this their chance to stake a claim for more permanent places in the starting XV (in the absence of injured duo Jean de Villiers and Jaque Fourie), but it will also be an indication of the midfield depth available to Jake White. There will be extra pressure on Snyman, following his poor performance on the wing last week. He will hope his hands don't let him down again. Another combination that has a chance of getting the jump on their rivals in the battle for permanent starting places is the halfback duo of Jaco van der Westhuyzen (No.10) and Fourie du Preez (No.9). Van der Westhuyzen, in the absence of injured André Pretorius, is a good bet, but the competition for the scrum-half spot is far more intense.

For Scotland: The performance of the tight five is going to be vital in the battle for overall honours, and locks Alastair Kellock and Nathan Hines have a huge battle on their hands against a team that include the line-out master Victor Matfield and the very physical Danie Rossouw. But also crucial is how the front row of Craig Smith, Dougie Hall and Gavin Kerr cope with the Boks' improved scrumming ability. No matter what changes the Scots made to their backs, if they are again beaten in the set pieces and the battle for possession like last week, they will not have much of a chance of living with the Boks. In the battle at the point of breakdown Jon Petrie, a surprise inclusion this week, will play a crucial role … even from No.8.

Head to head: Decision making in these games are crucial and here Jaco van der Westhuyzen (South Africa's) showdown against Gordon Ross (Scotland) at fly-half will be vital. Van der Westhuyzen enjoyed a clear advantage on the back of a dominant pack last week. But he still has some fundamental flaws in his game. He needs to keep improving and maturing as a test fly-half and against Ross he could certainly answer a few of those questions.

Prediction: It is not surprising to find that the bookmakers are giving Scotland a 20-point head start, the exact margin of last week's win by the Boks. It is logical to think that South Africa should win by at least that margin again. We expect Scotland to put up some stern resistance, initially at least, but for the Boks to pull away in the end. We think the margin might be even bigger this week – the Boks by 20 points or more.

Recent results:

2006: South Africa won 36-16 in Durban
2004: South Africa won 45-10 in Edinburgh
2003: South Africa won 28-19 in Johannesburg
2003: South Africa won 29-25 in Durban
2002: Scotland won 21-6 in Edinburgh
1999: South Africa won 46-29 in Edinburgh
1998: South Africa won 35-10 in Edinburgh
1997: South Africa won 68-10 in Edinburgh
1994: South Africa won 34-10 in Edinburgh
1969: Scotland won 6-3 in Edinburgh
1965: Scotland won 8-5 in Edinburgh

Teams:

South Africa: 15 Percy Montgomery, 14 Breyton Paulse, 13 André Snyman, 12 Wynand Olivier, 11 Bryan Habana, 10 Jaco van der Westhuyzen, 9 Fourie du Preez, 8 Joe van Niekerk, 7 Juan Smith, 6 Schalk Burger, 5 Victor Matfield, 4 Danie Rossouw, 3 Eddie Andrews, 2 John Smit (captain), 1 Os du Randt.
Replacements: 16 Hanyani Shimange, 17 CJ van der Linde, 18 Albert van den Berg, 19 Jacques Cronjé, 20 Ricky Januarie, 21 Wayne Julies, 22 Gaffie du Toit.

Scotland: 15 Hugo Southwell, 14 Chris Paterson, 13 Marcus Di Rollo, 12 Andrew Henderson, 11 Simon Webster, 10 Gordon Ross, 9 Mike Blair, 8 Jon Petrie, 7 Allister Hogg, 6 Jason White (captain), 5 Alastair Kellock, 4 Nathan Hines, 3 Craig Smith, 2 Dougie Hall, 1 Gavin Kerr.
Replacements: 16 Scott Lawson, 17 Bruce Douglas, 18 Scott Macleoad, 19 Kelly Brown, 20 Donnie MacFadyen, 21 Sam Pinder, 22 Ben MacDougall.

Date: Saturday, June 17
Kick-off: 15:00 (13:00 GMT)
Venue: EPRFU Stadium, Port Elizabeth
Conditions: Scattered clouds. High 21°C, low 12°C
Referee: Tony Spreadbury (England)
Touch judges: Stuart Dickinson (Australia), Simon MacDowell (Ireland)
Television match official: Rob Debney (England)
Assessor: Jim Bailey (Wales)