Wales v Scotland - teams and prediction
SIX NATIONS ROUND TWO: Wales may be the reigning champions, but it is easy to forget that fact as they prepare for Saturday’s match against Scotland in Cardiff.
The Welsh were physically overwhelmed when starting their title defence with a thumping 7-29 loss away to Ireland last weekend – something that could not be explained alone by the ongoing absence of several injured senior players, including captain Alun Wyn Jones.
Wales coach Wayne Pivac has made four alterations to his side, including giving a debut to Ospreys flanker Jac Morgan.
Pivac, explaining a lack of “wholesale changes”, said: “We know a lot of the players who were by their own admission below their own standards, deserve another opportunity. I certainly believe there will be more to come from this team.”
Wales’ Under-20 team was thrashed 53-5 by their Irish counterparts last week – a result that followed the failure of any Welsh club to qualify for the last 16 of Europe’s elite Champions Cup.
But structural issues and arguments over the terms of a £20-million (US$27-million, €24-million) loan negotiated by the Welsh Rugby Union to help the four professional regions cope with the economic impact of the COVID-19, have nothing to do with Pivac’s tactics in Dublin.
The former Scarlets boss deployed Josh Adams at outside centre, only for the wing to be exposed repeatedly when defending in his new role.
Adams’ leg injury, however, means Owen Watkin will line up in the No.13 shirt on Saturday, with flyhalf Dan Biggar retaining the captaincy.
Pivac has won 10 Tests out of 23 since succeeding Warren Gatland, a fellow New Zealander, as Wales coach following the 2019 World Cup.
His supporters point to last season’s Six Nations title as proof of success, but Pivac’s critics note that wins over Ireland and Scotland came against opponents reduced to 14 men.
Scotland, with just two professional teams (Edinburgh and Glasgow) to Wales’ four, started this edition with a 20-17 win at home to England.
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‘Challenge of Cardiff’
Last weekend’s Calcutta Cup victory prompted Pivac to say the Dark Blues were “rightly” favourites to beat Wales, although it is 20 years since Scotland last won in Cardiff, when head coach Gregor Townsend was their flyhalf.
Scotland did defeat Wales in Llanelli two years ago, but COVID-19 restrictions meant the match was played behind closed doors.
Even though the WRU will be serving weaker beer and shutting the Principality Stadium’s bars during the second half, in a bid to reduce alcohol-related disorder following two pitch invasions by fans in November, a capacity crowd of 74,000 is still expected to get behind Wales.
Nevertheless, Townsend said: “We should be better equipped to deal with the challenge of going to Cardiff.”
Townsend has made five changes, including a new front row, but only one has been enforced, with Sam Skinner replacing Jamie Ritchie following the flanker’s tournament-ending hamstring injury.
“I maybe have said it is the strongest (Scotland) squad as well, so the noise isn’t just external,” added Townsend of the growing expectations surrounding his team.
Scotland conceded just one try against England at Murrayfield in another example of the impact their Welsh defence coach Steve Tandy has had since Townsend brought him on board in 2019.
“More New South Wales’ loss is Scotland’s gain, because he was at the Waratahs at the time, he wasn’t in Wales,” said Townsend of former Ospreys boss Tandy.
“His knowledge of the game is outstanding and he really connects with the player. The players enjoy defending and his influence is a big part of that.”
Players to watch
For Wales: Jac Morgan is set to make his Wales debut, with the 22-year-old replacing Ellis Jenkins at openside flanker in a reshaped back row. Ross Moriarty starts at No.8 instead of Aaron Wainwright, with Taine Basham on the blindside. Alex Cuthbert gets a first Six Nations appearance in five years on the wing, in preference to Johnny McNicholl. Fellow wing Josh Adams, who struggled after being selected at outside centre, has been ruled out because of a calf muscle injury, with Owen Watkin taking over at No.13. Captain Dan Biggar is set to make his 100th Test match appearance for Wales and the British and Irish Lions, becoming the ninth Welshman to achieve that feat.
For Scotland: Grant Gilchrist will make his 50th appearance for Scotland. Captain Stuart Hogg will mark the occasion with his 90th cap for his country. Sam Skinner will start the match in place of Jamie Ritchie in one of five changes from last weekend’s starting line-up. Ritchie has received surgery on a hamstring injury and will be out for the rest of the 2022 Six Nations Championship. However, the most significant is the three changes in the front row – with Edinburgh’s Pierre Schoeman and Willem Nel starting alongside hooker Stuart McInally. There is only one change in the backline, with Glasgow Warriors’ midfielder Sione Tuipulotu set to make his third Scotland appearance at inside centre. Glasgow Warriors’ flank Rory Darge will make his debut for his country if he comes off the bench, following an impressive season so far for the Scotstoun side.
Head to head
Prediction
@rugby365com: Wales by five points
Teams
Wales: 15 Liam Williams, 14 Alex Cuthbert, 13 Owen Watkin, 12 Nick Tompkins, 11 Louis Rees-Zammit, 10 Dan Biggar (captain), 9 Tomos Williams, 8 Ross Moriarty, 7 Jac Morgan, 6 Taine Basham, 5 Adam Beard, 4 Will Rowlands, 3 Tomas Francis, 2 Ryan Elias, 1 Wyn Jones.
Replacements: 16 Dewi Lake, 17 Gareth Thomas, 18 Dillon Lewis, 19 Seb Davies, 20 Aaron Wainwright, 21 Gareth Davies, 22 Callum Sheedy, 23 Jonathan Davies.
Scotland: 15 Stuart Hogg (captain), 14 Darcy Graham, 13 Chris Harris, 12 Sione Tuipulotu, 11 Duhan van der Merwe, 10 Finn Russell, 9 Ali Price, 8 Matt Fagerson, 7 Hamish Watson, 6 Sam Skinner, 5 Grant Gilchrist, 4 Jonny Gray, 3 WP Nel, 2 Stuart McInally, 1 Pierre Schoeman.
Replacements: 16 George Turner, 17 Rory Sutherland, 18 Zander Fagerson, 19 Magnus Bradbury, 20 Rory Darge, 21 Ben White, 22 Blair Kinghorn, 23 Cameron Redpath.
Date: Saturday, February 12
Venue: Millennium Stadium, Cardiff
Kick-off: 14.15 (14.15 GMT)
Expected weather: Light rain. There is a 90 percent chance of precipitation. High of 10°C and low of 8°C
Referee: Nic Berry (Australia)
Assistant referees: Wayne Barnes (England), Chris Busby (Ireland)
TMO: Brett Cronan (Australia)
