Predictions and teams - Super Rugby AU, Round 10
WALLABY TRIAL: The Queensland Reds will host the Brumbies in what could effectively be a Wallaby trial and also a preview of a possible Final two weeks later.
One of the positions that new Wallaby coach Dave Rennie will pay close attention to is No.2.
Brandon Paenga-Amosa’s rise from garbage man to Wallabies representative came and went in a flash but, two years on, his Queensland Reds coach Brad Thorn believes he has earned another crack.
The charismatic hooker played four Tests in his debut professional season, picked alongside another former Sydney garbage man Folau Fainga’a to face Ireland.
Brumbies No.2 Fainga’a went on to play in last year’s World Cup, while the discarded Paenga-Amosa was plunged into a battle for Super Rugby game time as Thorn turned to Alex Mafi.
However, Paenga-Amosa has been a shining light since returning from an early-season ankle injury and, up against Fainga’a and the Brumbies on Saturday at Suncorp Stadium, can take another step towards selection for possible Tests against New Zealand in October.
“He got thrown into that in his first season and did remarkably well, was good in his areas against the Irish,” Thorn, who plucked Paenga-Amosa from obscurity three years ago to play NRC, said.
“But it’s three years of going to South Africa, Argentina, Japan, playing for the Reds since then [to improve].
“He’s an important guy in our team, he’s been doing really well and in a really positive state of mind.
“He’s been leading the team in the scrums and you’d like to think if he keeps putting in he can push for higher honours.”
Like Fainga’a, Paenga-Amosa has dominated in general play and at scrums this season.
Just how straight his line-out throws are could be the simple key to a recall, with question marks surrounding the Reds’ set-piece before next weekend’s preliminary final against either the Melbourne Rebels or the NSW Waratahs.
A bye has allowed the 24-year-old to work overtime on his accuracy though, Thorn content with the improvements made since the Brumbies last-gasp win in their previous meeting.
“We’ll get tested again and hopefully we’re testing the Brumbies as well,” Thorn said.
The Brumbies are guaranteed a spot in the grand final with the Reds to host next week’s stand-alone qualifier.
Bullocking Reds centre Hunter Paisami (knee) will push for a Wallabies squad berth off the bench, while Jordan Petaia comes in from the wing to the centres and prop Harry Hoopert returns to the starting side.
Chris Feauai-Sautia (calf) and JP Smith (neck) are back from injury for the Reds while JP’s twin brother Ruan has rejoined the side after being released from his Rebels contract.
The Brumbies will go in at full strength, with Australian halfback Nic White starting for them for the first time in five years after two games off the bench since returning from England’s Exeter Chiefs.
Saturday’s predictions
Saturday, September 5:
Rebels v Western Force
(Newcastle International Sports Centre, New South Wales – Kick-off: 15.00; 05.00 GMT)
Thirteen of the previous 14 Super Rugby matches between the Rebels and Force have been decided by a single-figure margin.
The Rebels have won the majority of the games in that span – 10.
The Force have lost their last seven Super Rugby matches in succession. The last time they endured a longer losing run was a franchise-record 10-match stretch in the 2015 season.
The Force have made 153 tackles per game in Super Rugby AU, the most of any team and one of two sides with an average of 150+ (Reds – 151 per game).
Isi Naisarani (Rebels) has made more carries per game (15.3) than any other player in Super Rugby AU, as well as the most offloads per game (1.3) of any forward.
Jeremy Thrush (Force) has won 37 lineouts in Super Rugby AU (Inc. 4 steals), more than any other player in the tournament.
Prediction
@rugby365com: Rebels by 15 points
Teams
Western Force: 15 Jack McGregor, 14 Byron Ralston, 13 Kyle Godwin, 12 Henry Taefu, 11 Marcel Brache, 10 Jono Lance, 9 Ian Prior (captain), 8 Henry Stowers, 7 Brynard Stander, 6 Fergus Lee Warner, 5 Ollie Atkins, 4 Jeremy Thrush, 3 Kieran Longbottom, 2 Andrew Ready, 1 Pek Cowan.
Replacements: 16 Heath Tessmann, 17 Chris Heiberg, 18 Dominic Hardman, 19 Johan Bardoul, 20 Kane Koteka, 21 Nick Frisby, 22 Nick Jooste, 23 Jake Strachan
Melbourne Rebels: 15 Dane Haylett-Petty (captain), 14 Tom Pincus, 13 Reece Hodge, 12 Bill Meakes, 11 Marika Koroibete, 10 Matt To’omua, 9 James Tuttle, 8 Isi Naisarani, 7 Richard Hardwick, 6 Michael Wells, 5 Trevor Hosea, 4 Matt Philip, 3 Jermaine Ainsley, 2 Jordan Uelese, 1 Cameron Orr.
Replacements: 16 Efitusi Ma’afu, 17 Cabous Eloff, 18 Matt Gibbon, 19 Michael Stolberg, 20 Brad Wilkin, 21 Frank Lomani, 22 Andrew Deegan, 23 Lachie Anderson
Referee: Angus Gardner
Assistant referees: Graham Cooper & Amy Perrett
TMO: James Leckie
Reds v Brumbies
(Lang Park, Brisbane – Kick-off: 19.20; 09.20 GMT)
The Reds have won their last three Super Rugby home matches on the bounce against the Brumbies, more than they won in their 12 such meetings prior.
The Brumbies have won nine of their last 10 Super Rugby matches.
However, that lone defeat came in their most recent away game (12-30 v Rebels – Round Six, Super Rugby AU).
The Brumbies (96.4 percent) and the Reds (96.2 percent) boast the highest and second-highest ruck success rates respectively of all teams in Super Rugby AU.
Tate McDermott (Reds) has beaten 26 defenders in Super Rugby AU, more than any other player in the campaign and seven more than Brumbies’ best Irae Simone (19).
Joe Powell (Brumbies) has made 1.5 break passes per game in Super Rugby AU – the most of any player and the only player with an average of more than one per game.
Prediction
@rugby365com: Brumbies by five points
Teams
Queensland Reds: 15 Jock Campbell, 14 Chris Feauai-Sautia, 13 Jordan Petaia, 12 Hamish Stewart, 11 Filipo Daugunu, 10 James O’Connor, 9 Tate McDermott, 8 Harry Wilson, 7 Fraser McReight, 6 Liam Wright, 5 Lukhan Salakaia-Loto, 4 Angus Blyth, 3 Taniela Tupou, 2 Brandon Paenga-Amosa, 1 Harry Hoopert.
Replacements: 16 Josh Nasser, 17 JP Smith, 18 Ruan Smith, 19 Tuaina Taii Tualima, 20 Angus Scott-Young, 21 Moses Sorovi, 22 Bryce Hegarty, 23 Hunter Paisami.
Brumbies: 15 Tom Banks, 14 Andy Muirhead, 13 Tevita Kuridrani, 12 Irae Simon, 11 Tom Wright, 10 Bayley Kuenzle, 9 Nic White, 8 Pete Samu, 7 Will Miller, 6 Rob Valetini, 5 Cadeyrn Neville, 4 Darcy Swain, 3 Allan Alaalatoa, 2 Folau Fainga’a, 1 Scott Sio.
Replacements: 16 Connal McInerney, 17 James Slipper, 18 Tom Ross, 19 Nick Frost, 20 Lachlan McCaffrey, 21 Ryan Lonergan, 22 Len Ikitau, 23 Solomone Kata.
Referee: Nic Berry
Assistant referees: Damon Murphy
TMO: Jordan Way
Bye: Waratahs
* Stats provided by Opta Sports
