Predictions and Teams - Super Rugby AU, Semifinal
JUST ONE-SHOT: Queensland Reds captain Liam Wright knows his side’s desperate line defence won’t be enough if they are to navigate past the Melbourne Rebels on Saturday and into the Super Rugby AU final.
The Reds were monumental in a shutout of the Rebels when they last met, holding them up over the line five times and making 204 tackles to the try-less Rebels’ 66.
The win shot them from fourth to second, the Reds conceding just one try in each of their two games since to earn preliminary final hosting rights at Suncorp Stadium.
Wright is wary though, believing a first finals win since 2011 won’t come in similar fashion on Saturday.
“If you look at our last few games it’s evident we can defend our line well, but didn’t make the most of capitalising on their errors and put ourselves deep in their half,” the back-row said.
“Come finals footy you can’t do that, because the pressure ticks over into points.”
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The Reds aren’t short of attack though, with in-form fullback Jock Campbell firing, James O’Connor creating at No.10 and probing scrumhalf Tate McDermott pushing incumbent Wallabies No.9 Nic White with his strong form.
Much fuss has been made of powerhouse prop Taniela Tupou’s scrum strategy, Brumbies coach Dan McKellar challenging officials to watch closely before a potential rematch in the final next weekend.
The Rebels have gone down a similar path but the Reds haven’t engaged in the by-play, coach and finals expert Brad Thorn stressing how important it is to stay in the moment before a do-or-die clash.
Wright admitted there was a buzz around Ballymore with so many first-time finalists but that there would be no reflection just yet.
“It’s human nature to get ahead of ourselves, get a bit excited,” he said.
“But there is no grand final without us beating the Rebels and that’s come across pretty well for the boys.
“We’re not ready to reflect just yet … we do that at the end of the season.”
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The game also presents as the last chance to impress for a spots in new Wallabies coach Dave Rennie’s Rugby Championship squad, due to be announced on Sunday.
Melbourne’s Jordan Uelese says they have a plan to limit the damage of Queensland bull Taniela Tupou as the teams compete for a Super Rugby AU grand-final berth.
Uelese is backing his Rebels to cause a boilover at Suncorp Stadium on Saturday night, with the winner to take on the Brumbies for the title in Canberra on September 19.
It’s Melbourne’s first final in their 10-year history and comes after playing the entire season out of Victoria.
Rebels coach Dave Wessels earlier this week pointed out Test prop Tupou’s penalty tally and said he wanted to “paint a picture” for referee Nic Berry.
But the Rebels forwards are taking it into their own hands to stop the “Tongan Thor”, a renowned scrummager who can also cause havoc around the field.
Uelese said the addition of Wallaby Jermaine Ainsley and Matt Gibbon to the Melbourne pack is a major boost.
“Taniela is a good scrummager, we’re not going to lie,” Uelese said.
“He’s a powerful athlete but we’ve played against him enough to know how he scrummages and his tendencies.
“We definitely have a plan to attack that.”
Saturday’s prediction
Saturday, September 12
Reds v Rebels
(Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane – Kick-off: 19:15; 09.15 GMT)
The Reds are undefeated against the Rebels in Super Rugby AU (W1, D1) and picked up a 19-13 win in their last encounter (Rd 7); they’ll be out to clinch back-to-back wins against the Rebels for the first time since winning their first six meetings in the competition from 2011 to 2013.
This will be the Rebels’ first appearance in a Super Rugby finals campaign, while the Reds have reached the knockout stage for the first time since 2013; though, they’ve not won a finals game since their triumph over the Crusaders in the 2011 Final (18-13).
The Reds have won their last five Super Rugby games on the bounce at Suncorp Stadium; the last time they enjoyed a longer streak at the venue within a single season was a seven-game stretch in 2011.
The Reds have made 92 offloads throughout the 2020 Super Rugby AU campaign, 20 more than any other team in the competition.
The Melbourne Rebels have gained 137 metres from mauls thus far in Super Rugby AU, the most of any team in the competition and 101 metres more than the last-ranked Reds (36m).
The Reds have won 64 turnovers throughout the regular season in Super Rugby AU, the most of any team in the competition and 16 more than the Rebels (48).
The Rebels have scored the opening try of the game in three of their last five away games against the Reds, striking within the opening five minutes of the game on two occasions in that span.
Tate McDermott (Reds) has scored three tries in his last two Super Rugby appearances and has been directly involved in five tries in his last four games (3 tries, 2 try assists).
Filipo Daugunu (Reds) has provided three break assists via off load this Super Rugby AU campaign, more than any other player in the competition; he’s also provided one try assist via this method.
Dane Haylett-Petty (Rebels) has scored three tries and made one try assist in his last four Super Rugby games against the Reds, as well as making seven clean breaks, beating 16 defenders, and gaining 442 metres in that span
Prediction
@rugby365com: Reds by 15 points
Teams
Reds: 15 Jock Campbell, 14 Chris Feauai-Sautia, 13 Jordan Petaia, 12 Hamish Stewart, 11 Filipo Daugunu, 10 James O’Connor, 9 Tate McDermott, 8 Harry Wilson, 7 Fraser McReight, 6 Liam Wright, 5 Lukhan Salakaia-Loto, 4 Angus Blyth, 3 Taniela Tupou, 2 Brandon Paenga-Amosa, 1 Harry Hoopert.
Replacements: 16 Alex Mafi, 17 JP Smith, 18 Jack Straker, 19 Tuaina Taii Tualima, 20 Angus Scott-Young, 21 Moses Sorovi, 22 Bryce Hegarty, 23 Hunter Paisami.
Melbourne Rebels: 15 Dane Haylett-Petty, 14 Andrew Kellaway, 13 Reece Hodge, 12 Bill Meakes, 11 Marika Koroibete, 10 Matt Toomua (captain), 9 Frank Lomani, 8 Isi Naisarani, 7 Richard Hardwick, 6 Brad Wilkin, 5 Trevor Hosea, 4 Matt Philip, 3 Jermaine Ainsley, 2 Jordan Uelese, 1 Cameron Orr.
Replacements: 16 Efi Ma’afu, 17 Matt Gibbon, 18 Cabous Eloff, 19 Michael Stolberg, 20 Rob Leota, 21 Theo Strang, 22 Andrew Deegan, 23 Campbell Magnay.
Referee: Nic Berry
Assistant referees: Damon Murphy, Jordan way
TMO: Brett Cronan
