Preview: Final - Waratahs v Crusaders

History versus the present. That is the reality of the 19th Super Rugby Final – when the Waratahs host the Crusaders in Sydney on Saturday.

The hosts, the Tahs, represent the present – this year's form team. The visitors have history on their side – a proven track record of winning finals, seven titles in all.

It is that proven ability to cope with pressure in big games that many pundits feel will give the Crusaders the edge over a team the have beaten twice before in Super Rugby finals.

All Black captain Richie McCaw, who knows all about big finals, admitted that teams tend to "get a bit tight "when the pressure comes on in play-offs.

"We just have to make sure we don't give them space and put the pressure on them," McCaw told a media scrum this week, when he was asked how they would counter the in-form Waratahs on Saturday.

"You allow them to get their tails up and confidence, because of what they have done all year, they will be a tough animal."

He felt that teams showed at times this year you can put pressure on the Tahs.

There has been suggestions that the forwards are the "soft underbelly" of the Waratahs, but both McCae and coach Todd Blackadder disagree with this assertion.

"Every week we put a fair bit of work into how and where it happened, also how we will defend," McCaw said, when asked about possible weaknesses in the opposition.

"Certainly we will have a look as the week goes on at how we can limit their supply of ball," the All Black skipper added, without giving too much away.

Blackadder told a media briefing that it would be a "huge mistake" to regard the Tahs pack as a weakness.

"We're too smart," the Crusaders coach said.

"We know that the Waratahs aren't the side that they are because they've got a soft underbelly. They haven't shown that all year.

"I think if you respect your opponent you will prepare well."

While the Waratahs have a proven attacking ability – they have scored 58 tries, 12 more than the Crusaders – the visitors are not about to roll out the welcome matt at their tryline.

"A symptom of whether they can do that [play an expansive game] will be down to what options we take and how good [the quality of] ball we give them," McCaw said.

Players to watch:

For the Waratahs: Every week you will start at fullback, with game-breaker Israel Folau, then throw in other proven attackers like Alofa Alofa, Adam Ashley-Cooper and Kurtley Beale. There will again be the brute for of players like Wycliff Palu and Jacques Potgieter, to go with the finesse of a Michael Hooper  and the workrate of Tatafu Polota Nau.

For the Crusaders: Dan Carter is again at inside centre, because Colin Slade has been a key player in the No.10 jersey all season. However, the real threat is Kieran Read as captain and No.8. Now throw in the evergreen Richie McCaw, hard-working Samuel Whitelock and Dominic Bird's towering presence and you have a team with threats all over the park.

Head to head: We are salivating at the prospect of seeing the creative skills of Kurtley Beale (Waratahs) up against the proven match-winning ability of Dan Carter (Crusaders) at inside centre. In the second row the Waratahs' Springbok wildman JacquesPotgieter more than makes up for what he lacks in size with his raw energy, when he goes up against the Crusaders' tall timber Dominic Bird.

Recent results:

2013: Crusaders won 23-22, Christchurch

2012: Crusaders won 37-33, Sydney

2011: Crusaders won 33-18, Nelson

2010: Crusaders won 20-13, Christchurch

2009:  Crusaders won 17-13, Sydney

2008: Crusaders won 20-12, Christchurch (Final)

2008: Crusaders won 34-7, Christchurch

2007: Crusaders won 34-33, Sydney

2006: Crusaders won 17-11, Christchurch

2005: Crusaders won 35-25, Christchurch (Final)

2005: Crusaders won 33-27, Sydney

Prediction: This will be the first time these sides have met this year. Since the inauguration of Super 14 in 2006, the Crusaders have won all nine meetings between these trans-Tasman rivals – including twice in 2008 and twice in 2005, which include their previous meetings in finals. You'd need to go back to February 2004 for the Waratahs' last success against the New Zealand outfit. Only the Waratahs (29.8) have a better points per game average than the Crusaders (28.4) this year. Indeed, the Waratahs have averaged fewer points conceded (16.5) than any other side, with the Crusaders boasting the second best defence (19.3 points conceded per game). The NSW side continue to top the charts for average tries, carries, metres, passes, breaks and offloads. They have also missed the fewest number of tackles this year, an average of 14.1 per week. The Crusaders have averaged the most line-out steals (2.4) per game this year, with their opponents' success rate of 78 percent being the lowest in the competition.  While the Waratahs top the charts for offloads, opponents of the Crusaders have produced fewer per game (eight) than any other side. Bernard Foley has landed 78 percent of his shots at goal this year, while Colin Slade has notched 79 percent. Dan Carter has kicked 12 from 20, a success rate of just 60 percent. Kurtley Beale (225) and Israel Dagg (201) are the only men to make 200+ carries this season. Both Nemani Nadolo and Israel Folau have accrued 50 defenders beaten this year, only two others can better this. Folau has scored the most tries this year (12), with Nadolo the only other player to hit double figures with 11. Both players have made 13 appearances. Nadolo leads the way for clean breaks with 26, with Folau on 25 and Adam Ashley-Cooper 21. The Crusaders have scored more first phase tries (25) than any other side this year and nine more than the Sydney side. Thirteen 13 of the 58 tries the Waratahs have scored this season have originated from turnovers, more than any other side in the competition. The statistics may suggest the Waratahs will start as favourites, and rightly so, but we know games are not won by statistics, but by the desire of players and their ability to cope with the pressure of the occasion. We feel this is where the Crusaders may have the edge – to steal a narrow win, by about five points.

Teams:

Waratahs: 15 Israel Folau, 14 Alofa Alofa, 13 Adam Ashley-Cooper, 12 Kurtley Beale, 11 Rob Horne, 10 Bernard Foley, 9 Nick Phipps, 8 Wycliff Palu, 7 Michael Hooper (captain), 5 Kane Douglas, 6 Stephen Hoiles, 4 Jacques Potgieter, 3 Sekope Kepu, 2Tatafu Polota Nau, 1 Benn Robinson.

Replacements (two to be omitted): 16 Tolu Latu, 17 Jeremy Tilse, 18 Paddy Ryan, 19 Will Skelton, 20 Mitchell Chapman, 21 Pat McCutcheon, 22 Brendan McKibbin, 23 Taqele Naiyaravoro,  24 Matt Carraro, 25 Peter Betham.

Crusaders: 15 Israel Dagg, 14 Kieron Fonotia, 13 Ryan Crotty, 12 Dan Carter, 11 Nemani Nadolo, 10 Colin Slade, 9 Andy Ellis, 8 Kieran Read (captain), 7 Matt Todd, 6 Richie McCaw, 5 Samuel Whitelock, 4 Dominic Bird, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Corey Flynn, 1 Wyatt Crockett.

Replacements: 16 Ben Funnell, 17 Joe Moody, 18 Nepo Laulala, 19 Jimmy Tupou, 20 Jordan Taufua, 21 Willi Heinz, 22 Tom Taylor, 23 Johnny McNicholl.

Date: Saturday, August 2

Venue:  ANZ Stadium, Sydney

Kick-off: 19.40 (09.40 GMT, 21.40 NZT, 11.40 SAST)

Expected weather: It will be mostly clear, but there is a slight chance showers in the afternoon. High of 15°C, dropping to 11°C by match time – with a South to South-West wind of 28km/h.

Referee: Craig Joubert (South Africa)

Assistant referees: Steve Walsh (Australia), James Leckie (Australia)

TMO: George Ayoub (Australia)

By Jan de Koning