Preview: Hurricanes v Brumbies
The Hurricanes will play the emotional card and invoke the memory of Jerry Collins when they play the Brumbies this weekend, as the Super Rugby intensity hits 'Test-match level'.
The New Zealand side goes into this trans-Tasman showdown with the better form – the Hurricanes by some distance the best performing and most consistent side in the regular season – while the Australian outfit has the greater pedigree.
The Brumbies, two-time champions in 2001 and 2004, booked a place in the semis for a third consecutive year when they knocked out South Africa's final hope, the Stormers, last week.
The Brumbies are bidding to become the first team from either Australia or South Africa to win a play-off match in New Zealand, but against them is the arduous travel they have undertaken to get to Wellington via Cape Town.
Hooker Stephen Moore saw similarities with 2013 when they went to South Africa to beat the Bulls in the semis, then flew to New Zealand to be beaten 27-22 by the Chiefs in the Final.
"I guess this time round I feel like our squad is probably a little bit stronger and more experienced," he said.
"Finals are as close as you get to Test matches and big Test matches.
"That kind of pressure goes up a level, the intensity goes up a level."
The Brumbies did not play the Hurricanes in the regular season, but Moore said they have seen plenty of video evidence to know what they are up against.
"They've been the trailblazers all year in the competition so they're a very dangerous side in a lot of different areas," he said.
The Hurricanes, who suffered a blow Thursday with All Blacks wing Cory Jane forced out by a hamstring injury, are playing the emotional card going into the match.
A giant No.6 jersey will be carried around the stadium in tribute to former Hurricanes star Collins, who was killed in a car crash in France with his partner three weeks ago.
Collins, a close friend and teammate of many present Hurricanes, wore the No.6 jersey, and "was a fantastic Hurricane," franchise Chief Executive James Te Puni said.
"We want to recognise Jerry and his contribution," he added, saying the Brumbies clash was arguably the biggest game in the Hurricanes' history.
Players to watch:
For the Hurricanes: You always start with electric wing Nehe Milner-Skudder, then you look at the stability and experience provided by the All Black midfield combination of Conrad Smith and Ma'a Nonu, the raw power of the other wing Julian Savea, the class of flyhalf Beauden Barrett and the skill of scrumhalf TJ Perenara. That is just the backline, Up front you have just as many threats – starting with No.8 Victor Vito, followed by flanks Ardie Savea and Brad Shields, the dependable locks combination of James Broadhurst and Jeremy Thrush, and the hard-working front row of Ben Franks, Dane Coles and Reggie Goodes.
For the Brumbies: Jesse Mogg is dependable, Tevita Kuridrani may want to raise the bar as he has been somewhat underwhelming, Matt Toomua is always a threat with ball in hand, Joe Tomane will look to reproduce his try-scoring feats of last week, while the halfback combination of Christian Lealiifano and Nic White will no doubt play for territory. Ita Vaea is pure power, David Pocock is without doubt one of the best breakdown exponents in the world, Scott Fardy's workrate is exceptional, while Ben Alexander, Stephen Moore and Scott Sio may have to improve their work ethic from last week – when just about everything went in their favour.
Head to head: There are exciting match-ups all over the park, but the most crucial may well be at halfback – Beauden Barrett and TJ Perenara (Hurricanes) against Christian Lealiifano and Nic White (Brumbies) – where both teams will get their direction from. While the Hurricanes appear to have the better strike power in the outside backs, it may well be in the tight forwards where the battle for possession will be decided – James Broadhurst, Jeremy Thrush, Ben Franks, Dane Coles and Reggie Goodes (Hurricanes) against Blake Enever, Rory Arnold, Ben Alexander, Stephen Moore and Scott Sio (Brumbies).
Recent results:
2014: Brumbies won 29-21, Wellington
2013: Brumbies won 30-23, Canberra
2012: Brumbies won 37-25, Wellington
2011: Brumbies won 17-16, Canberra
2010: Hurricanes won 23-13, Canberra
2009: Hurricanes won 56-7, Wellington
2008: Hurricanes won 33-15, Canberra
2007: Hurricanes won 11-10, Wellington
2006: Brumbies won 21-16, Canberra
2005: Hurricanes won 49-37, Wellington
Prediction: Since suffering defeat to the Brumbies in their first home game of the 2014 season, the Hurricanes have lost just two of 15 in Wellington. The Canes' largest ever win (56-7) was also the Brumbies' heaviest ever defeat and came when these sides met in Wellington in 2009. The Brumbies defeated the Hurricanes in the 1997 Super 12 semifinals. The Brumbies have won the last four contests between the sides, this after losing the previous four. Just one of the last eight meetings between these sides in New Zealand has seen a final points margin of a converted try or less. The Hurricanes have lost five of six Super Rugby semifinals, with four of those defeats coming by margins greater than 10 points. In contrast, the Brumbies have won six of eight appearances at this stage. The Hurricanes boast the best scrum in terms of ball retention (95 percent) this season, while the Brumbies' figure is the second worst (82 percent). The Canes have averaged the highest gain (560 metres) this season, while the Brumbies have averaged the second lowest (347 metres). Opponents of the Brumbies also gain fewer metres (360) per game than any other side. The Hurricanes' average of 11.6 clean breaks per game is a tournament high, though the Brumbies' average of 5.4 breaks conceded per game is a season low. The Brumbies have averaged fewer line-outs lost on their throw (1.2) than any other side, while the Canes have thrown the most away, an average of 2.8 per game. They rank second best and third last for line-out success rates respectively. Only the Brumbies (16.5) have shipped fewer points per game than the Hurricanes (18) this year. The Hurricanes lead the way for final quarter tries this season with 18 after the hour mark. That is twice as many as the Brumbies who have scored the joint-second fewest in the same timeframe. Only Waisake Naholo (11), who has played two games more, has scored more tries than TJ Perenara (10) this year. Opposite number Nic White has assisted 15 tries, at least four more than any other player. Play-offs are notoriously tough to predict, but the Hurricanes seem to have the kind of grid that could see them go all the way and they should into the Final – beating the Brumbies by less than 10 points.
Teams:
Hurricanes: 15 James Marshall, 14 Nehe Milner-Skudder, 13 Conrad Smith (captain), 12 Ma'a Nonu, 11 Julian Savea, 10 Beauden Barrett, 9 TJ Perenara, 8 Victor Vito, 7 Ardie Savea, 6 Brad Shields, 5 James Broadhurst, 4 Jeremy Thrush, 3 Ben Franks, 2 Dane Coles, 1 Reggie Goodes.
Replacements: 16 Brayden Mitchell, 17 Chris Eves, 18 Jeffery Toomaga-Allen, 19 Mark Abbott, 20 Blade Thomson, 21 Chris Smylie, 22 Rey Lee-Lo, 23 Matt Proctor.
Brumbies: 15 Jesse Mogg, 14 Lausii Taliauli, 13 Tevita Kuridrani, 12 Matt Toomua, 11 Joe Tomane, 10 Christian Lealiifano, 9 Nic White, 8 Ita Vaea, 7 David Pocock, 6 Scott Fardy, 5 Blake Enever, 4 Rory Arnold, 3 Ben Alexander, 2 Stephen Moore (captain), 1 Scott Sio.
Replacements: 16 Josh Mann-Rea, 17 Allan Alaalatoa, 18 Ruan Smith, 19 Jordan Smiler, 20 Jarrad Butler, 21 Michael Dowsett, 22 Nigel Ah Wong, 23 Robbie Coleman.
Date: Saturday, June 27
Venue: Westpac Stadium. Wellington
Kick-off: 19.35 (17.35 AEST; 07.35 GMT)
Expected weather: Sun giving way to increasing clouds; breezy in the evening. High of 12°C and a low of 7°C.
Referee: Glen Jackson (New Zealand)
Assistant referees: Chris Pollock (New Zealand), Nick Briant (New Zealand)
TMO: Ben Skeen (New Zealand)
Compiled by Jan de Koning
@King365ed
@rugby365com
Statistical information provided by Opta Sports
