Preview: S15 Round 12, Part One
The opening day of Super Rugby's round 12 is divided between winners and losers.
First up is two teams desperate to stay in the play-off race after defeats in their last outings.
The sixth-placed Highlanders host the 10th-placed Sharks in Dunedin.
The Sharks, with just five matches remaining after this week, are coming off their first bye of the season. However, they lost their last three matches. The Highlanders, who lost to the Brumbies last week, have followed up each defeat this season with three consecutive victories.
We then head across the Tasman Sea for the all-Australia derby between two teams that recorded impressive wins last week – the Brumbies hosting the Waratahs in Canberra.
The Brumbies showed some real championship potential in their demolition of the Highlanders, while the Waratahs were less convincing in their victory over the Rebels.
We look at Friday's matches!
Friday, May 1
Highlanders v Sharks
(Forsyth Barr Stadium, Dunedin – Kick-off 19.35; 09.35 SAST; 07.35 GMT)
Personnel movements have formed a crucial part of the build-up of both teams this week.
The Highlanders, who have stacked up the injuries and are without 11 squad members, lost lock Joe Wheeler this week.
His season appears to be over after he injured his medial knee ligament against the Brumbies last week and is set to go under the surgeon's knife.
Having been a key part of the team in the past two or three seasons and having played every game for the Highlanders this season, his absence is a huge blow.
The Sharks, in contrast, welcomed back three internationals – hooker Bismarck du Plessis, having served a four-match ban, lock Stephan Lewies and utility back JP Pietersen, the latter two returning from injury.
The return of Du Plessis and Lewies gives the Sharks a physical edge the Highlanders are very wary of.
''They're a pretty physical team, from what we've seen," centre Richard Buckman told the Otago Daily Times.
"They will look at our last game and attack with the rolling maul.
"But if we stick to our game plan and keep them away from line-outs and penalties and get it out the back, then we should be right.''
Buckman admitted the next few games will be vital to the Highlanders' cause, as they look to cement their place in the play-off zone.
''The boys have done the job in the first half of the season and we just have to bring on the second half of the season," he said.
"Just keep on bringing those performances together.''
Sharks Director of Rugby Gary Gold also spoke of the importance of starting the four-match Australasian tour with a win.
"I'm not into predictions, but at the end of the day we realise that, mathematically, we still have a chance to resurrect this season and give ourselves a chance to get into play-off contention," he said, adding that their focus though is on this game ahead.
"We've prepared well for Friday, we have some very tough games on tour, we know this."
He said the return of the Bok trio is a huge boost for the team.
"It's a boost in strength and depth to have people like Bismarck [du Plessis] and Stefan Lewies back with us.
"It will be a tough contest in Dunedin, but if we play well on the weekend we can pick up a good result and get a nice head of steam and have a good, successful tour; that's the goal."
Recent results:
2014: Sharks won 31-27, Durban (preliminary play-off match)
2014: Highlanders won 34-18, Durban
2013: Highlanders won 25-22, Dunedin
2012: Sharks won 28-16, Durban
2010: Sharks won 30-16, Dunedin
2009: Sharks won 23-15, Durban
2008: Sharks won 19-17, Dunedin
Prediction: The Highlanders have won their last four at home against South African sides, but three of those wins via a margin of a converted try or less. Twelve of the Highlanders' last 14 home games have been settled by losing bonus point margins (they won 10 and lost four) and just one of these matches has seen a final points difference hit double figures. The Sharks have won four of their last five away games against the Highlanders, but the blemish in this run came in their last visit. The Sharks are coming off three consecutive defeats; their worst run of form since losing five on the trot in April and May 2013. Only the Sharks (21.8) and Cheetahs (21.5) have averaged more missed tackles than the Highlanders (21.2). The Sharks have a very realistic chance of winning. They certainly have the personnel to do so. However, the lack of cohesion shown so far this season by the Sharks suggest the Highlanders will have just too much in the tank and win by seven points.
Teams:
Highlanders: 15 Ben Smith (co-captain), 14 Waisake Naholo, 13 Malakai Fekitoa, 12 Richard Buckman, 11 Patrick Osborne, 10 Lima Sopoaga, 9 Aaron Smith, 8 Nasi Manu (co-captain), 7 Dan Pryor, 6 Gareth Evans, 5 Mark Reddish, 4 Tom Franklin, 3 Josh Hohneck, 2 Liam Coltman, 1 Kane Hames.
Replacements: 16 Ash Dixon, 17 Brendon Edmonds, 18 Pingi Tala’apitaga, 19 Joe Latta, 20 Elliot Dixon, 21 Fumiaki Tanaka, 22 Marty Banks, 23 Jason Emery.
Sharks: 15 Odwa Ndungane, 14 Sibusiso Sithole, 13 JP Pietersen, 12 Andre Esterhuizen, 11 Lwazi Mvovo, 10 Fred Zeilinga, 9 Cobus Reinach, 8 Willem Alberts, 7 Renaldo Bothma, 6 Marcell Coetzee, 5 Marco Wentzel (captain), 4 Stephan Lewies, 3 Lourens Adriaanse, 2 Bismarck du Plessis, 1 Tendai Mtawarira.
Replacements: 16 Franco Marais, 17 Dale Chadwick, 18 Matt Stevens, 19 Mouritz Botha, 20 Etienne Oosthuizen, 21 Conrad Hoffmann, 22 Lionel Cronje, 23 Waylon Murray.
Referee: Angus Gardner (Australia)
Assistant referees: Kane McBride, Mike Lash
TMO: Vinny Munro
Brumbies v Waratahs
(GIO Stadium, Canberra – Kick-off: 19.40; 09.40 GMT)
Both the Brumbies and Waratahs this week spoke of the need to dominate "physically" in this vitally important conference derby.
It was just six-weeks ago that the Waratahs knocked the Brumbies from the top of the Super Rugby standings in Sydney and since that point in time the Brumbies have ridden a bumpy road, winning just two from four matches.
On that sunny afternoon in March the Waratahs won by 15 points and while the eventual scoreline didn't reflect the tightness in the match, what was clear was that the Waratahs were physically superior to the Brumbies.
With that in mind, Brumbies forward Jordan Smiler said that the team's training throughout the week would be centred on physicality.
"We definitely need to front up physically, because that's where they beat us last time so that's our big area of focus this week in training," Smiler said in an interview on the Brumbies' website.
Test prop Ben Alexander also said that the team needed to come out firing so that they could reduce the impact of the Waratahs' outside backs.
"Yeah they definitely won the collisions last time," Alexander said.
"We'll obviously take lessons from that and look at why that was and work on areas to make sure that we up it because they definitely got the ascendency which then gave guys like Izzy [Israel] Folau good ball and we saw he eventually got man of the match.
"Their backs definitely rely on good front foot ball and their forwards did a good job of doing that last time."
The Waratahs identified the importance of dominating the set pieces.
Last Friday, against the Highlanders, the Brumbies scored three first-half tries from rolling mauls.
And while the Waratahs' Michael Hooper also scored a try from the rolling maul against the Rebels, Waratahs second row forward Mitch Chapman said that his side would need to nullify and be proactive against his former side's set-piece pet play.
"Yeah obviously their rolling maul is going to be a big point – they scored three tries from it over the weekend – and that's definitely a point that we'll have to nullify," Chapman said on the Waratahs' website.
"I think once the maul is set up really well it's hard to stop. Either defending it in the air or stopping it before it gets going is very crucial. They've got a very technically good maul so once they get set-up we'll be in a bit of trouble so we'll have to look at getting stuck in early."
Chapman's teammate Paddy Ryan also commented about the importance of winning the set pieces and said that with the injury to Scott Sio, the Waratahs would look to exploit his absence in the scrum.
"Yeah they'd be up there [with the best scrums in the competition]," Ryan said.
"But I think they'll be missing Sio, who's obviously been scrummaging very well this year and I think in terms of penalties this year, he's been one of the best."
Recent results:
2015: Waratahs won 28-13, Sydney
2014: Waratahs won 26-8, Sydney (semifinal)
2014: Waratahs won 39-8, Sydney
2014: Brumbies won 28-23, Canberra
2013: Waratahs won 28-22, Sydney
2013: Brumbies won 35-6, Canberra
2012: Brumbies won 19-15, Sydney
2012: Brumbies won 23-6, Canberra
Prediction: The Waratahs have won the last three meetings between these sides, each by margins greater than two converted tries. The Tahs restricted the Brumbies to an aggregate of 29 points scored in this run. The Brumbies have won their last three home games against the ‘Tahs and have lost just twice at home to the NSW outfit in Super Rugby. The Brumbies have won 12 of their last 13 home games, however their last two defeats in Canberra both came at the hands of fellow Australian Conference opposition. The Waratahs have won six of their last seven away from home, with five of these wins coming by margins of at least 10 points. The reigning champions have won two in a row but have not won three straight in 2015. The Brumbies are the only side yet to score a try from a possession that originated within their own half but have scored the most (18) when starting out with the ball in the opposition 22. The Tahs have scored 13 tries when starting with the ball in the attacking half, but more than 22-metre from the try line, a competition high. The Brumbies have looked vulnerable against teams that take them on physically and the Waratahs are one of the most physical outfits in the competition. They may well repeat their dominance of earlier in the season and win by 15 points.
Teams:
Brumbies: 15 Jesse Mogg, 14 Henry Speight, 13 Tevita Kuridrani, 12 Robbie Coleman, 11 Joe Tomane, 10 Christian Lealiifano, 9 Michael Dowsett, 8 Ita Vaea, 7 David Pocock, 6 Scott Fardy, 5 Sam Carter, 4 Jordan Smiler, 3 Ben Alexander, 2 Stephen Moore (captain), 1 JP Smith.
Replacements: 16 Josh Mann-Rea, 17 Allan Alaalatoa, 18 Ruan Smith, 19 Blake Enever, 20 Jarrad Butler, 21 Joe Powell, 22 James Dargaville, 23 Nigel Ah Wong.
Waratahs: 15 Israel Folau, 14 Peter Betham, 13 Adam Ashley-Cooper, 12 Kurtley Beale, 11 Rob Horne, 10 Bernard Foley, 9 Nick Phipps, 8 Wycliff Palu, 7 Michael Hooper, 6 Jacques Potgieter, 5 Dave Dennis (captain), 4 Will Skelton, 3 Sekope Kepu, 2 Tatafu Polota-Nau, 1 Benn Robinson.
Replacements – from: Tolu Latu, Jeremy Tilse, Paddy Ryan, Mitch Chapman, Stephen Hoiles, Pat McCutcheon, Brendan McKibbin, Taqele Naiyaravoro, Matt Carraro.
Compiled by Jan de Koning
@King365ed
@rugby365com
Statistical information provided by Opta Sports
