Preview: S15 Round 14, Part One
It has been interesting in the world of Super Rugby this week, with at least one coach having already announced his departure and a few others under increasing pressure.
Two of those coaches, said to be on their way out, will be in action on Friday.
Blues coach John Kirwan, if media reports in New Zealand are to be believed, got very testy with journalists this week.
Having to fight fires on several fronts, one wonders how much time he had to focus on his team's opponents this week, the Bulls – whom they will meet in the opening match of Round 14.
Reds coach Richard Graham has already called in some outside help in the form of former Wallaby mentor John Connolly.
With the much-improved Rebels in Brisbane on Friday, the Reds coach will need all the help he can get.
We look at Friday's matches!
Friday, May 15
Blues v Bulls
(Eden Park, Auckland – Kick-off: 19.35; 09.35 SA time; 07.35 GMT)
While the Blues coach, John Kirwan, has made no secret of his desire to stay on beyond this season, a question mark remains over his future.
According to a report in the NZ Herald Crusaders assistant coach Tabai Matson was in Auckland this week, where he met with players and board members with a view to joining next year.
According to a Blues statement they have not made any decisions on any of the coaching positions to fill for 2016, and are continuing to "consider all of their options".
"The focus of the organisation is on the final four games of the season, ensuring our players and staff are fully supported," the statement said.
Kirwan was even less forthcoming in his exchanges with the media this week.
"I know the indecision is creating news, but I'm not prepared to talk about it," Kirwan told a media briefing in Auckland.
The build-up in the Bulls camp has been very different, coach Frans Ludeke telling the media in a conference call that the team is determined to start their four-match Australasian tour on a winning note.
He has named a powerful starting XV, including regular captain Pierre Spies, but it is his bench he hopes can make the biggest impact.
"The great thing about this team is the guys who can come off the bench for us and make a huge impact in the last 20 minutes," Ludeke said.
"They can hopefully bring pace into the game with their ball-carrying ability."
Despite the media storm surrounding the Blues, Ludeke was not willing to write them off.
"They have a very competitive set of forwards, with some quality international players," he said of a Blues team that has won just twice in 12 starts.
"In the scrums they put pressure on the opposition ball," he said, adding: "They have scored nine of their 24 tries from scrums – that says a lot about their attacking ability from set pieces."
Ludeke felt it will be a huge battle for both teams to get quality possession.
"It is such a tight competition this season and we desperately want to stay in the running.
"We know we will need a special performance to be successful at the weekend."
Recent results:
2014: Bulls won 38-22, Pretoria
2013: Bulls won 28-21, Auckland
2012: Blues won 29-23, Pretoria
2010: Blues won 32-17, Auckland
2009: Bulls won 59-26, Pretoria
2008: Blues won 23-21, Auckland
Prediction: In 19 meetings between these sides, a losing bonus point has been scored in just six encounters, though there was one draw. The Blues have lost two in a row against the Bulls, but won the two prior to that. The Bulls won on their last visit to Auckland, but lost their previous nine away to the Blues. The Blues' last two matches have produced 65 and 64 points respectively. Their 13 matches prior to that all produced under 55 in total and an average of 40. The Bulls have not won outside of their own country since defeating the Blues in their last visit to Auckland in March 2013. Since then, they have lost all seven of their matches in Australia and New Zealand. Ihaia West has kicked 30/35 this season (86 percent), Jacques-Louis Potgieter (10 from 12), Handré Pollard (48 from 60) and Tiaan Schoeman (four from five), meaning they have all kicked at 80+ percent this season. The Blues always have a chance to win and they do have the talent. They have just lacked the focus and it is obvious why. The Bulls will start favourites, but if they do pull of the win their margin will be in single digits.
Teams:
Blues: 15 Lolagi Visinia, 14 Ben Lam, 13 Francis Saili, 12 George Moala, 11 Melani Nanai, 10 Ihaia West, 9 Jamison Gibson-Park, 8 Steven Luatua (captain), 7 Brendon O'Connor, 6 Akira Ioane, 5 Culum Retallick, 4 Josh Bekhuis, 3 Charlie Faumuina, 2 James Parsons, 1 Tony Woodcock.
Replacements: 16 Keven Mealamu, 17 Ofa Tu'ungafasi, 18 Sam Prattley, 19 Will Lloyd, 20 Blake Gibson, 21 Jimmy Cowan/Jamie Booth, 22 Simon Hickey, 23 Matt Vaega.
Bulls: 15 Jesse Kriel, 14 Francois Hougaard, 13 JJ Engelbrecht, 12 Jan Serfontein, 11 Bjorn Basson, 10 Handré Pollard, 9 Rudy Paige, 8 Pierre Spies (captain), 7 Arno Botha, 6 Pieter Labuschagne, 5 Victor Matfield, 4 Flip van de Merwe, 3 Marcel van der Merwe, 2 Adriaan Strauss, 1 Trevor Nyakane.
Replacements: 16 Callie Visagie, 17 Dean Greyling, 18 Werner Kruger, 19 Jacques du Plessis, 20 Deon Stegmann, 21 Burger Odendaal, 22 Jacques-Louis Potgieter, 23 Travis Ismaiel.
Referee: Mike Fraser
Assistant referees: Nick Briant, Aki Aso
TMO: Glenn Newman
Reds v Rebels
(Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane – Kick-off: 19.40; 09.40 GMT)
The home team is just hoping to salvage some pride in the closing stages of the season, but the Rebels still hold out genuine hope of making the play-offs.
However, most of the focus this week has been on the coaching set-up in Brisbane, especially with the arrival of former Wallaby mentor John Connolly – who signed on in an 'advisory' capacity with the Queensland-based franchise.
It is uncertain how much of a role Connolly played in the selection of the squad, but it is interesting that the Reds will field a specialist flyhalf this week after using a scrumhalf in the No.10 channel in recent weeks.
The other significant selections are moving James O'Connor to fullback and Karmichael Hunt to outside centre – all moves designed to sharpen the Reds' rather blunt attack.
"He is a genuine No.10 and he understands how to control the team," Reds coach Richard Graham said, when asked about young McIntyre making his debut.
"He shifts the ball very well through his hands, while his general play and kicking is very good."
Graham also made it clear they want Hunt closer to the ball and O'Connor more involved.
"In the last couple of weeks we haven't demonstrated enough continuity in terms of our attack," the coach said, adding: "We will look to see if we can get him involved in the game a bit more."
The Rebels, who are in 10th place but just five points off the sixth-placed Bulls, have made no secret of their desire to break their drought and reach the play-offs.
A bonus-point win in Brisbane will go a long way towards realising that dream.
However, the Rebels – coming off a 42-22 victory against the Blues – are cautious about the threat posed by a Reds team that has enormous potential.
Rebels lock Luke Jones warned of the risk of underestimating an opposition with lots of Super Rugby and international experience.
The Wallaby said his side will need to be on their game to get the result!
"The Reds are a quality side, [with] a whole lot of international players," Jones said.
"I think they will take us on through the forwards.
"We just have to stick to what we have been doing [all season] and deliver in an away game.
"No doubt we have to bring our A-game."
Recent results:
2015: Rebels won 23-15, Melbourne
2014: Reds won 36-20, Melbourne
2014: Rebels 30-27, Brisbane
2013: Reds won 33-20, Brisbane
2013: Reds won 23-13, Melbourne
2012: Reds won 32-17, Melbourne
2012: Reds won 11-6, Brisbane
Prediction: The Reds' largest Super Rugby victory, both in terms of winning margin and points scored, came against the Rebels in March 2011 (53-3). The Melbourne-based outfit has won two of the three meetings between these sides since the start of last year. The first six meetings between the franchises were won by the Reds. A losing bonus point has been scored in two of nine meetings between these franchises. The Rebels have won four of their last five; a run which is their best ever in this competition. Their 42-22 win over the Blues last week equalled their highest points haul in a match and was their second largest victory in terms of margin. The Reds rank second for line-out success rate (90 percent) this term while the Rebels place last in this regard (78 percent). If you look at the Reds' team sheet, you have to think that they can knock over any team. Then you look at their results and see a team in disarray. The Rebels have been more composed and structured and should win by about 12 points.
Teams:
Reds: 15 James O'Connor, 14 Chris Feauai-Sautia, 13 Karmichael Hunt, 12 Samu Kerevi, 11 Lachie Turner, 10 Jake McIntyre, 9 Will Genia, 8 Jake Schatz, 7 Liam Gill, 6 Adam Thomson, 5 James Horwill, 4 Rob Simmons, 3 Greg Holmes, 2 James Hanson, 1 James Slipper (captain).
Replacements: 16 Andrew Ready, 17 Pettowa Paraka, 18 Sam Talakai, 19 Ed O'Donoghue, 20 Lolo Fakaosilea, 21 Nick Frisby/Scott Gale, 22 Sam Greene, 23 Ben Tapuai.
Rebels: 15 Mike Harris, 14 Dom Shipperley, 13 Tamati Ellison, 12 Mitch Inman, 11 Sefanaia Naivalu, 10 Jack Debreczeni, 9 Nic Stirzaker, 8 Scott Higginbotham (captain), 7 Jordy Reid, 6 Sean McMahon, 5 Lopeti Timani, 4 Luke Jones, 3 Paul Alo-Emile, 2 Pat Leafa, 1 Toby Smith.
Replacements: 16 Tom Sexton, 17 Cruze Ah-Nau, 18 Laurie Weeks, 19 Cadeyrn Neville, 20 Colby Fainga’a, 21 Luke Burgess, 22 Bryce Hegarty, 23 Tom English.
Referee: Andrew Lees
Assistant referee: James Leckie, Michael Hogan
TMO: Ian Smith
Compiled by Jan de Koning
@King365ed
@rugby365com
Statistical information provided by Opta Sports
