Preview: S15 Round 15, Part One
To say it is crunch time is to state the obvious. With just four rounds of the Super Rugby competition to go, every loss now is a killer blow.
That is why it is a 'must win' situation for the Chiefs and Bulls in the opening match of the weekend – at the Rotorua International Stadium on Friday.
Both are still comfortable in the top six, but a loss this week could see them drop out of the play-off zone and then left with the arduous task of travelling during the knock-out stages.
The second match on Friday is between two teams playing for pride – the Reds hosting the Sharks in Brisbane.
While the Reds have ended their horror run – seven defeats in eight matches – with an impressive win over the Rebels last week, the Sharks are desperately seeking to end their record six-match losing streak.
Don't expect anything fancy. It will be brutal, with lost of 'feeling'.
We look at Friday's matches!
Friday, May 22
Chiefs v Bulls
(Rotorua International Stadium, Rotorua – Kick-off: 19.35; 09.35 SA time; 07.35 GMT)
Questions have been asked about the Chiefs' ability to go all the way, coming off back-to-back defeats that saw them lose valuable ground to the table-topping Hurricanes.
Sandwiched in between their defeats to the Rebels (15-16) and Hurricanes (18-22) was a bye.
However, there is no doubt they will be in much better shape this week – having had enough time to reflect of the errors of the last few weeks.
Japan captain Michael Leitch, who has settled very nicely into the Chiefs' No.8 jersey, is expecting the Bulls to be hurting just as much the home team – after the men from Pretoria were upset 23-18 by the Blues in their opening tour match in Auckland last week.
He also feels the Bulls are very "predictable" in what they will do.
"They've been pretty consistent over the past couple of games with their maul and kicking game, so we're not expecting any surprises," Leitch told NZ Newswire.
"But if they do try and do something different, I'm sure we'll be able to adapt."
Bulls coach Frans Ludeke this week spoke at length about the need for his team to be more clinical in their execution.
They are likely to get fewer opportunities this week and will need to make them all count.
The Chiefs have been one of the most miserly teams on defence this year – having conceded just 17 tries in 12 outings, with only the Brumbies, on 14, doing better.
The Bulls' attack has showed promising signs at times, but has simply not been consistent. The men from Pretoria's attack have them in mid-table, with 27 tries scored in their 12 matches, while the Chiefs are only marginally more productive – 31 in 12.
"We've had so many opportunities and we didn't convert a lot of them after we squeezed them [the Blues] into turnovers and we created opportunities to score tries," Ludeke said in a teleconference call from Rotorua.
"We can say a lot, but our execution wasn't good enough for our standards. We felt that we let ourselves down and we hope to bounce back this weekend," he added.
The Bulls coach said they made a lot of "adjustments" in training this week, as they look towards Friday's outing.
"They [the Chiefs] are a quality side and they are definitely one of the contenders again this season.
"They bring an intensity to the breakdown and workrate.
"We know we need to work hard this weekend to get the points on the board and there are obviously some areas that we can capitalise on, but it will be a tough contest."
Recent results:
2014: Chiefs and Bulls drew 34-all, Pretoria
2012: Chiefs won 28-22, Hamilton
2011: Bulls won 43-27, Pretoria
2010: Bulls won 33-19, Hamilton
2009: Bulls won 61-17, Pretoria (Final)
2009: Bulls won 33-27, Pretoria
Prediction: The Chiefs have won just one of their last six games against the Bulls, conceding an average of 38 points per game in this run. However, the Chiefs have won their last 10 home games against South African opposition, with their last defeat coming back in 2010 against the Stormers. Conversely the Bulls are on a run of eight consecutive Super Rugby defeats outside of South Africa. The Chiefs have averaged 17.2 offloads per game this season, a tournament-high, whilst the Bulls have averaged the fewest (5.3). Jesse Kriel (1,044 metres) is one of just two players to have gained over 1,000 metres in this year's competition (Israel Folau – 1,217). It will be a brutal arm-wrestle and we can only hope the match officials don't spoil what could be an intriguing and entertaining game. The Chiefs should sneak, but by less than 10 points.
Teams:
Chiefs: 15 Tom Marshall, 14 Hosea Gear, 13 Charlie Ngatai, 12 Anton Lienert-Brown, 11 Bryce Heem, 10 Damian McKenzie, 9 Augustine Pulu, 8 Michael Leitch, 7 Sam Cane, 6 Liam Messam (captain), 5 Johan Bardoul, 4 Michael Fitzgerald/Ross Filipo, 3 Ben Tameifuna, 2 Hika Elliot, 1 Mitchell Graham.
Replacements: 16 Quentin MacDonald, 17 Siate Tokolahi, 18 Pauliasi Manu, 19 Brian Alainu'uese, 20 Maama Vaipulu, 21 Brad Weber, 22 Andrew Horrell, 23 Tim Nanai-Williams.
Bulls: 15 Jesse Kriel, 14 Francois Hougaard, 13 JJ Engelbrecht, 12 Jan Serfontein, 11 Bjorn Basson, 10 Handré Pollard, 9 Rudy Paige, 8 Pierre Spies (captain), 7 Jacques du Plessis, 6 Deon Stegmann, 5 Victor Matfield, 4 Flip van de Merwe, 3 Marcel van der Merwe, 2 Callie Visagie, 1 Trevor Nyakane.
Replacements: 16 Jaco Visagie, 17 Dean Greyling, 18 Arno Botha, 19 Pieter Labuschagne, 20 Jacques-Louis Potgieter, 21 Burger Odendaal, 22 Travis Ismaiel, 23 Werner Kruger.
Referee: Chris Pollock (New Zealand)
Assistant referees: Glen Jackson (New Zealand), Aki Aso (Japan)
TMO: Glenn Newman (New Zealand)
Reds v Sharks
(Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane – Kick-off: 19.40; 11.40 SA time; 09.40 GMT)
We can only hope that the rain hovering around Brisbane has cleared by Friday. With nothing but pride to play for, these two teams may just throw of the shackles and entertain.
Reds coach Richard Graham admitted his team will need to replicate last week's form – a 46-29 demolition of the Rebels.
"We need to prepare for this game with the same mental approach as we did the Rebels," Graham said.
"We were urgent, abrasive and full of running.
"Anything short of that will negate the efforts of last week."
The Reds mentor admitted the visitors this week will bring a different challenge.
"The Sharks will be desperate to finish their [Australasian] tour with a win," he said, adding: "They have copped a fair bit of criticism recently and we know all too well how that stings.
"There is a lot of quality in their squad and they will want to return to South Africa with some wind in their sails for the remaining few games.
"Over the past few seasons it has been the Sharks' set piece that has given them some ascendancy.
"The forwards understand fully that it is their responsibility to dominate that area of the game. That will go a long way towards determining the outcome Friday."
Sharks Director of Rugby Gary Gold was just as complimentary of the opposition in the calm before the storm.
"You look at the players in their team – [James] Slipper, [James] Horwill, [Will] Genia, [James] O'Connor – these are really good rugby players, highly experienced internationals and this is a team going through a similar season to us," Gold said from the team's base in Australia.
"A couple of injuries, a couple of poor performances and they've found themselves on the end of a couple of bad results.
"But credit to them, they turned the corner last weekend against a good Rebels team and we know we're going to have our hands full this weekend."
Reds and Wallaby scrumhalf Will Genia said it will be a 'brutal' battle in the tight exchanges and like his coach he believes the game will be won or lost up front.
"They have some big boys, so we have to make sure we front up physically again," Genia said of the Sharks.
"It has been a massive point made throughout the week."
Recent results:
2014: Sharks won 35-20, Durban
2013: Reds won 32-17, Brisbane
2012: Sharks won 30-17, Brisbane (preliminary play-off match)
2012: Sharks won 27-22, Durban
2010: Sharks won 30-28, Durban
2009: Reds won 25-13, Brisbane
Prediction: The Reds have won just two of their last nine Super Rugby fixtures against the Sharks. The Sharks have lost six games on the bounce, it is only the second time they have lost six on the spin in a single campaign (2000). The Reds have held a half-time lead in just one of their last 14 Super Rugby games, they went on to win that game (versus the Western Force) and have turned two other half-time deficits into victories in that period. Only the Lions (109) have conceded more point in the 20 minutes before half-time than the Sharks (99) and the Reds (94). The Sharks' Marco Wentzel has won the most line-outs this season (58 – including steals), while the Reds' Jake Schatz is equal fourth in that regard (44). The Sharks are due a bit of good luck (especially from the match officials) and they could sneak this one – with single digits.
Teams:
Reds: 15 James O'Connor, 14 Chris Feauai-Sautia, 13 Karmichael Hunt, 12 Samu Kerevi, 11 Chris Kuridrani, 10 Jake McIntyre, 9 Will Genia, 8 Jake Schatz, 7 Liam Gill, 6 Adam Thomson, 5 James Horwill, 4 Rob Simmons, 3 Greg Holmes, 2 James Hanson, 1 James Slipper (captain).
Replacements: 16 Andrew Ready, 17 Pettowa Paraka, 18 Sam Talakai, 19 Ed O'Donoghue, 20 Lolo Fakaosilea, 21 Nick Frisby, 22 Sam Greene, 23 Ben Tapuai.
Sharks: 15 Lwazi Mvovo, 14 Odwa Ndungane, 13 JP Pietersen, 12 Frans Steyn, 11 Sibusiso Sithole, 10 Lionel Cronje, 9 Stefan Ungerer, 8 Renaldo Bothma, 7 Willem Alberts, 6 Marcell Coetzee, 5 Marco Wentzel (captain), 4 Stephan Lewies, 3 Jannie du Plessis, 2 Bismarck du Plessis, 1 Tendai Mtawarira.
Replacements: 16 Franco Marais, 17 Dale Chadwick, 18 Lourens Adriaanse, 19 Mouritz Botha, 20 Etienne Oosthuizen, 21 Conrad Hoffmann, 22 Fred Zeilinga, 23 Andre Esterhuizen.
Referee: Angus Gardner (Australia)
Assistant referees: Matt O'Brien (Australia), Damien Mitchelmore (Australia)
TMO: Peter Marshall (Australia)
Compiled by Jan de Koning
@King365ed
@rugby365com
Statistical information provided by Opta Sports
