Preview: S15 Round 17, Part One
It doesn't get any bigger. It doesn't get any better.
The Highlanders, the only team that can still overtake the Hurricanes at the top of Super Rugby's standings, travel to Napier for an epic all-New Zealand derby and the opening match of the penultimate weekend of league action.
Given the importance of the match and the quality of the rugby produced by these two teams this season, it is not a surprise McLean Park is set for a sell-out.
Hurricanes Chief executive James Te Puni said it was exciting to be able to take a game of this magnitude to Napier.
"There's a lot riding on this game for both teams – it will go a long way to determining the placings for the final six," Te Puni said.
Friday's other match – which happens to be an all-Australia derby across the Tasman see – will see a determined Brumbies team travel to Perth to take on the Western Force.
Victory will see the Brumbies reclaim the lead in the Australian conference and a top three spot. They will be determined to make it a bonus-point win to pile pressure on the Waratahs.
We look at Friday's matches!
Friday, June 5
Hurricanes v Highlanders
(McLean Park, Napier – Kick-off: 19.35; 07.35 GMT)
Hurricanes coach Chris Boyd described last week's loss to the Crusaders as a "horrible" performance and knows his team can't afford another horror show like that against the Highlanders.
The Hurricanes require just two points to ensure they finish the regular season at the top of the standings. That will book them a home semifinal and more importantly a bye in the preliminary round of play-offs.
They can do this by winning, playing to a draw or even two bonus points. As they say in the classics: 'The ball is in their court.'
"I'm not sure of the reason why [we lost last week], but we're determined it won't happen again," he told NZ Newswire.
However, the Highlanders have the same motivational forces driving them.
A win could provide the Dunedin-based franchise with a shot at winning the New Zealand conference.
However, they will have to do it without the All Black trio of Ben Smith, Aaron Smith and Malakai Fekitoa. They are all being rested in accordance to an agreement with the New Zealand Rugby Union.
The the last time coach Jamie Joseph rested his All Blacks the Highlanders slumped to and 18-31 loss to the Brumbies, back in April.
"Good teams learn from their lessons and that was a lesson we learned [against the Brumbies]," Joseph told The Southland Times.
"Following the Brumbies game I think we won by 30 or 40 points against the Sharks," Joseph added.
"But no doubt that is what we are going to come up against this weekend against the Hurricanes.
"They were well beaten by the Crusaders so there could be a backlash against us, so we need to prepare properly.
"We've done that as best we can and we are going to Napier knowing we are up against the best team in the competition."
Recent results:
2015: Hurricanes won 20-13, Dunedin
2014: Highlanders won 18-16, Wellington
2014: Highlanders won 35-31, Dunedin
2013: Highlanders won 49-44, Wellington
2013: Hurricanes won 23-19, Dunedin
2012: Hurricanes won 26-20, Dunedin
2012: Highlanders won 19-17, Wellington
Prediction: Waisake Naholo (nine) and TJ Perenara (eight) rank first and second respectively for tries scored this term. The Hurricanes boast the best scrum success rate (96 percent) this year, but the Highlanders have averaged the most scrums won on their own feed (7.8). The Highlanders rank second (27.6) and Hurricanes third (27.2) for points per game this year. The last two fixtures between these sides have seen 34 and 33 points scored respectively. The previous four averaged 62. Eleven of the last 15 games between these sides have seen an away win. The Landers are aiming for four consecutive victories for the first time since the first four rounds of the 2012 season. The last 13 meetings between these two sides have all been settled by seven points or fewer. The Hurricanes have looked vulnerable at times, but the Highlanders more so. The Hurricanes have one key All Black out, Ma'a Nonu. The Highlanders three – Ben and Aaron Smith, as well as Malakai Fekitoa. Advantage Hurricanes – who should win by at least a converted try in and an exciting encounter.
Teams:
Hurricanes: 15 James Marshall, 14 Nehe Milner-Skudder, 13 Conrad Smith (captain), 12 Rey Lee-Lo, 11 Julian Savea, 10 Beauden Barrett, 9 TJ Perenara, 8 Victor Vito, 7 Ardie Savea, 6 Blade Thomson, 5 James Broadhurst, 4 Jeremy Thrush, 3 Ben Franks, 2 Dane Coles, 1 Reggie Goodes.
Replacements: 16 Brayden Mitchell, 17 Chris Eves, 18 Jeffery Toomaga-Allen, 19 Mark Abbott, 20 Brad Shields, 21 Chris Smylie, 22 Callum Gibbins/Willis Halaholo, 23 Cory Jane/Ma'a Nonu.
Highlanders: 15 Marty Banks, 14 Waisake Naholo, 13 Jason Emery, 12 Richard Buckman, 11 Ryan Tongia, 10 Lima Sopoaga, 9 Fumiaki Tanaka, 8 Elliot Dixon, 7 John Hardie, 6 Gareth Evans, 5 Tom Franklin, 4 Alex Ainley, 3 Josh Hohneck, 2 Ash Dixon (captain), 1 Brendon Edmonds.
Replacements: 16 Liam Coltman, 17 Daniel Lienert-Brown, 18 Ross Geldenhuys, 19 Joe Latta, 20 Dan Pryor, 21 Scott Eade, 22 Shaun Treeby, 23 Kurt Baker.
Referee: Jaco Peyper
Assistant referees: Shane McDermott, Paul Williams
TMO: Aaron Paterson
Western Force v Brumbies
(nib Stadium, Perth – Kick-off: 19.00 AWST; 21.00 AEST; 11.00 GMT)
The Western Force have been a bitter disappointment this season. However, they can be party spoilers – as they twice did against the defending champion Waratahs, which just so happens to be their only victories of the season.
The best news to come out of Perth this week was the three-year contract extension for Wallaby loose forward Ben McCalman.
The deal, which includes an Australian Rugby Union clause that allows him one season in Japan after the World Cup, means the Force will have some stability in terms of their player resources going forward.
The Force play their last home game of the season against the Brumbies on Friday.
The Brumbies, who are on a hit and run trip only arriving in Perth on Thursday, are chasing a home semifinal.
"It's a very important game," McCalman told The West Australian.
"It's out last home game and they will be desperate for the win – being in a race against the Tahs to guarantee first place in the Australian conference."
The Brumbies are coming off a hard-earned win over the Bulls in Canberra last week.
With their season on the line, the Brumbies have posted back-to-back victories for the first time since back in mid-March and a bonus-point win against the Force will put them back to the top of the Aussie totem pole – while also booking them a top six spot and a guaranteed place in the play-offs.
The Brumbies are well aware of the threat posed by the lowly Force outfit.
"Our attitude this week is to win," fullback Jesse Mogg said in an interview on the Brumbies website.
"I think that hurt us a couple of years ago, we went over there and played really poorly and from memory I think we lost that game.
"The Force, although I guess they're sitting poorly on the table, they're still a fantastic team – hard at the breakdown and a good defensive team.
"It's going to be really tough for us, but we're going to aim up this week and hopefully finish the regular season strong."
Recent results:
2015: Brumbies won 27-15, Canberra
2014: Brumbies won 47-25, Canberra
2014: Brumbies won 27-14, Perth
2013: Force won 21-15, Perth
2013: Brumbies won 41-7, Canberra
2012: Brumbies won 28-17, Perth
2012: Brumbies won 19-17, Canberra
Prediction: The Force have won one of their last eight against the men from Canberra. The Force's last three wins have been against fellow Australian Conference opponents, but these have stretched out over a run of 18 matches. The Brumbies have lost two of their last four at home. Prior to that,
they had lost just one of 15 in Canberra. The Force have scored the fewest points this season (212) and the Brumbies have conceded the fewest (204). The Brumbies (two) and Force (three) have scored the fewest number of tries when starting out with the ball from within their own half in 2015. The smart money is on a big Brumbies win – by 15 points or more.
Teams:
Western Force: 15 Dane Haylett-Petty, 14 Luke Morahan, 13 Marcel Brache, 12 Kyle Godwin, 11 Nick Cummins, 10 Zack Holmes, 9 Alby Mathewson, 8 Ben McCalman, 7 Matt Hodgson (captain), 6 Angus Cottrell, 5 Adam Coleman, 4 Sam Wykes, 3 Guy Millar, 2 Nathan Charles, 1 Pekahou Cowan.
Replacements: 16 Heath Tessmann, 17 Chris Heiberg, 18 Tetera Faulkner, 19 Steve Mafi, 20 Kane Koteka, 21 Ryan Louwrens, 22 Luke Burton, 23 Patrick Dellit.
Brumbies: 15 Jesse Mogg, 14 Henry Speight, 13 Tevita Kuridrani, 12 Robbie Coleman, 11 Joe Tomane, 10 Christian Lealiifano, 9 Nic White, 8 Ita Vaea, 7 David Pocock, 6 Scott Fardy, 5 Blake Enever, 4 Rory Arnold, 3 Ben Alexander, 2 Stephen Moore (captain), 1 Scott Sio.
Replacements: 16 Josh Mann-Rea, 17 Allan Alaalatoa, 18 Ruan Smith, 19 Jordan Smiler, 20 Jarrad Butler, 21 Michael Dowsett, 22 Nigel Ah Wong, 23 James Dargaville.
Referee: Angus Gardner
Assistant referees: Damien Mitchelmore, Graham Cooper
TMO: Peter Marshall
Compiled by Jan de Koning
@King365ed
@rugby365com
Statistical information provided by Opta Sports
