Preview: S15 Round Four, Part One
Hold onto your seats, this ride could get scary. Yes, we may only have two Friday matches, but they are derbies and those are as unpredictable as they come.
The underperforming Highlanders know they will have to be much more clinical if they are to have a chance of beating the unbeaten Chiefs in Hamilton in Friday's Round Four opener.
The Highlanders had not quite clicked in their first two matches, while the Chiefs showed some ominous form in putting 40 points past the Crusaders last week.
It is almost an exact replica in the day's other game – when we head across the Tasman sea for the all-Australian derby between the Brumbies and Western Force in Canberra.
The hosts, the Brumbies, are Australia's form team. The Western Force, after knocking over the defending champion Waratahs, have lost their way somewhat.
We look at Friday's games!
Friday, March 6
Chiefs v Highlanders
(Waikato Stadium, Hamilton – Kick-off: 19.35; 06.35 GMT)
The Chiefs will have been buoyed by the 40-16 belting they handed the seven-time champion Crusaders last week.
Not surprising then to find Highlanders coach Jamie Joseph in an apprehensive mood.
Joseph described the Chiefs as the form team of the competition.
"They punished the Crusaders last weekend and that's a wake-up call for everyone," he told the Otago Daily Times.
"Their off-loading ability, led by Sonny Bill Williams and Liam Messam, is a big threat."
Like all coaches he believes there is a way to nullify the threat posed by Williams.
"We need to make our tackles on Sonny Bill and deny him time and space," the Highlanders coach said.
Joseph said the Highlanders had to ensure they got enough territory and ball in hand at Waikato Stadium.
"Our skill level under pressure hasn't been great so far," he said.
"We need to make players accountable for the execution of their skill levels even though we may not have the depth of the Chiefs."
Joseph said his squad were looking forward to heading on the road after opening their season with two matches in Dunedin.
Recent results:
2014: Highlanders won 29-25, Dunedin
2014: Chiefs won 21-19, Hamilton
2013: Chiefs won 19-7, Hamilton
2013: Chiefs won 41-27, Dunedin
2012: Chiefs won 27-21, Dunedin
2012: Highlanders won 23-19, Hamilton
Prediction: The Chiefs won their first three games of the season in 2010 and 2014, but went on to lose their fourth game in each of those years. The Highlanders (94.1 percent) and Chiefs (93.8 percent) rank first and second respectively when it comes to line-out success rate in 2015. No side has shipped more penalties per game than the Chiefs this season (12.7) and they have benefitted from fewer opposition penalties per game (8.7) than any other team as well. The Highlanders rank second for turnovers won this season, with an average of nine per game so far. The Dunedin-based side has seen their opponents maintain a ruck success rate of 91 percent; no team in Super Rugby has had their opponents average a lower success rate at the ruck. Charlie Ngatai and Waisake Naholo are two of only six players in Super Rugby to beat at least 10 defenders so far this season. The Highlanders are likely to make life unpleasant for the home team, but the Chiefs should take it by at least 10 points.
Teams:
Chiefs: 15 Tom Marshall, 14 Hosea Gear, 13 Charlie Ngatai, 12 Sonny Bill Williams, 11 James Lowe, 10 Aaron Cruden, 9 Augustine Pulu, 8 Liam Messam (captain)/Maama Vaipulu, 7 Sam Cane, 6 Johan Bardoul, 5 Michael Fitzgerald, 4 Matt Symons, 3 Ben Tameifuna, 2 Hika Elliot, 1 Pauliasi Manu.
Replacements: 16 Quentin MacDonald, 17 Siate Tokolahi, 18 Mitchell Graham, 19 Michael Allardice, 20 Michael Leitch/Maama Vaipulu, 21 Brad Weber, 22 Damian McKenzie, 23 Andrew Horrell.
Highlanders: 15 Ben Smith (co-captain), 14 Waisake Naholo, 13 Malakai Fekitoa, 12 Shaun Treeby, 11 Patrick Osborne, 10 Lima Sopoaga, 9 Aaron Smith, 8 Nasi Manu (co-captain), 7 Elliot Dixon, 6 Gareth Evans, 5 Joe Wheeler, 4 Mark Reddish, 3 Ma'afu Fia, 2 Liam Coltman, 1 Josh Hohneck.
Replacements: 16 Ash Dixon, 17 Brendon Edmonds, 18 Ross Geldenhuys, 19 Tom Franklin, 20 Dan Pryor, 21 Fumiaki Tanaka, 22 Marty Banks, 23 Jason Emery.
Referee: Mike Fraser (New Zealand)
Assistant referees: Nick Briant (New Zealand), Shane McDermott (New Zealand)
TMO: Chris Wratt (New Zealand)
Brumbies v Western Force
(GIO Stadium, Canberra – Kick-off: 19.40; 16.40 AWST; 08.40 GMT)
There is a good reason why the Brumbies are leading the Australian conference.
They have star quality in their team and as they showed a fortnight ago (suffering a two-point loss) are one of the few outfits who can live with the high-riding Chiefs.
TheBrumbies were a touch below par when they ground out a 20-15 win on the road against the Rebels last week, but it may just have been the wake-up call required.
The Western Force, in stark contrast, seem to have reverted to their most erratic form – a fine win over the Waratahs in week one undone by two defeats – including a 42-13 trashing at the hands of the Hurricanes.
The Brumbies are confident they can overcome the pitfalls come with these Australian derbies – which more often than not become a drag-out, beat-down arm-wrestle.
"It's massive," Brumbies flyhalf Matt Toomua told the Canberra Times.
"You top your conference you go into the finals, so any local derbies are always big ones.
"We don't want to look too far ahead, but we know we've got three to go then we're on a break," he said of a game that is the second of four straight games against Australian team – which will also seem them take on the Reds and Waratahs.
"Four points you get is four points you take off them, which is important in the conference, it's much more than just a normal game."
The Force will welcome back iconic Wallaby wing Nick Cummins for his first game of the season after recovering from ankle surgery.
Brumbies fullback Robbie Coleman said the Force was renowned for its tough play in the forwards.
"They can really get you caught in that grindy style of rugby and they've had a really good start to the season," Coleman told the Canberra Times.
"They can force you into a sloppy game, so we want to play our style no matter how they're doing it.
"It's a huge game for us and we want to put in a good performance."
Recent results:
2014: Brumbies won 47-25, Canberra
2014: Brumbies won 27-14, Perth
2013: Force won 21-15, Perth
2013: Brumbies won 41-7, Canberra
2012: Brumbies won 28-17, Perth
2012: Brumbies won 19-17, Canberra
Prediction: The first 12 meetings between these sides yielded an average aggregate score of 39 points with only one game in this run seeing more than 41 points scored. However, their most recent clash in July 2014 saw 72 points scored in a 47-25 win for the Brumbies. The Force rank last when it comes to tackling (82 percent) and scrum (58 percent) success rates so far in 2015. The Brumbies have averaged fewer metres (281) and breaks (four) per game than any other side this season, despite kicking from hand less often than any other side on average (17.3). The Canberra-based side has been awarded more penalties per game (15) than any other team so far, as well as conceding the fewest (9 per game). No player was won more line-outs than the Brumbies' Sam Carter (20) so far, whilst Rory Arnold and the Force's Steve Mafi rank joint fifth in this regard (13). With the Force and upset is always likely, but the smart money will be on the Brumbies to win by 10 to 15 points.
Teams:
Brumbies: 15 Robbie Coleman, 14 Henry Speight, 13 Tevita Kuridrani, 12 Christian Lealiifano, 11 Joe Tomane, 10 Matt Toomua, 9 Nic White, 8 Ita Vaea, 7 Jarred Butler, 6 Scott Fardy, 5 Sam Carter, 4 Rory Arnold, 3 Ben Alexander, 2 Stephen Moore (captain), 1 Scott Sio.
Replacements: 16 Josh Mann-Rea, 17 JP Smith, 18 Ruan Smith, 19 Jordan Smiler, 20 Blake Enever, 21 Michael Dowsett, 22 James Dargaville, 23 Jesse Mogg.
Western Force: 15 Luke Morahan. 14 Marcel Brache. 13 Kyle Godwin, 12 Solomoni Jnr Rasolea, 11 Nick Cummins, 10 Zack Holmes, 9 Alby Mathewson, 8 Ben McCalman, 7 Chris Alcock, 6 Brynard Stander, 5 Steve Mafi, 4 Sam Wykes (captain), 3 Tetera Faulkner, 2 Nathan Charles, 1 Pekahou Cowan.
Replacements: 16 Heath Tessmann, 17 Chris Heiberg, 18 Oliver Hoskins, 19 Wilhelm Steenkamp, 20 Kane Koteka, 21 Ian Prior, 22 Sias Ebersohn, 23 Luke Burton.
Referee: Marius van der Westhuizen (South Africa)
Assistant referees: Angus Gardner (Australia), Andrew Lees (Australia)
TMO: Ian Smith (Australia)
Compiled by Jan de Koning
@King365ed
@rugby365com
Statistical information provided by Opta Sports
