Preview: S15 Round Nine, Part One
Desperate times call for desperate measures. It may be a well-worn cliche, but it certainly rings true for a few of the teams in Round Nine.
We have just one Friday game and that includes a very desperate – winless – Blues team hosting the Australian conference leaders, the Brumbies, at Eden Park in Auckland.
The media have not let up on Blues coach John Kirwan and according to some publications in Aotearoa he has already been fired. All that must be determined is his departure date.
However, Kirwan has stood his ground and remains adamant his tem is still in with a chance of reaching the play-offs, although he admitted this week the Blues were "running out of runway".
Saturday starts with the big New Zealand South Island derby, the sixth-placed Crusaders hosting the fifth-placed Highlanders in Christchurch.
One point separates them on the standings, but even if they were poles apart, there is always plenty of feeling in these derbies and emotions tend to boil over.
The first half of our preview for this week concludes with the encounter between the defending champion Waratahs and the Stormers, desperate to break their tour duck.
We look at the first half of the weekend's matches!
Friday, April 10
Blues v Brumbies
(Eden Park, Auckland – Kick-off: 19.35; 17.35 AEST; 07.35 GMT)
The winless Blues, according to coach Kirwan, can't buy a trick.
"It's about those small moments, we had our chances and didn't take them," Kirwan said this week, after their seventh straight loss.
The Brumbies are well aware that a team as desperate as the Blues will not be holding anything back – making them a tricky hurdle.
Prop Scott Sio made no secret of the Brumbies' apprehension ahead of the trip across the Tasman Sea.
Even though the Blues are winless and stone last, they will play their first real home match this season – after Eden Park was used for the cricket World Cup and they were forced to play their other 'home' matches in Albany.
"It's a massive test this week," Sio said.
"We've got a lot of respect for them and we know we have to front up.
The scrum and the set-piece will be another big part in winning and continuing on in this competition."
Sio said dominance is what they are trying to build their game on.
"Just like back in the 1980s and 1990s, whoever was dominant on the day generally won," he added.
Recent results:
2014: Brumbies won 26-9, Canberra
2013: Brumbies won 20-13, Auckland
2012: Blues won 30-16, Canberra
2010: Blues won 39-34,Auckland
2009: Brumbies won 37-15, Canberra
2008: Brumbies won 16-11, Auckland
Prediction: The last eight meetings between the Blues and Brumbies have followed a pattern of two victories followed by two defeats for the Auckland-based side. If this run were to continue, they would win this game. The Brumbies have won the last two meetings between the sides, but have never won three on the bounce against the Blues. The Blues are currently on a nine-match losing streak; their worst-ever run of form. The Blues have averaged more rucks lost per game than any other side this season (5.3). The Brumbies have forced a worse ruck success rate (91 percent) from their opponents than any other team. The Brumbies have managed more opening quarter tries (seven) than any other side this season, while the Blues have scored the joint-fewest (one). The Blues appear to lack the belief to pull off the numerous close defeats this season. The Brumbies, in contrast, look a well-coached and structured team. They should win by about 10 points.
Teams:
Blues: 15 Charles Piutau, 14 Frank Halai, 13 Pita Ahki, 12 George Moala, 11 Melani Nanai, 10 Dan Bowden, 9 Jamison Gibson-Park, 8 Jerome Kaino (captain), 7 Brendon O'Connor, 6 Luke Braid, 5 Patrick Tuipulotu, 4 Josh Bekhuis, 3 Charlie Faumuina, 2 James Parsons, 1 Ofa Tu'ungafasi.
Replacements: 16 Keven Mealamu, 17 Sam Prattley, 18 Angus Ta'avao, 19 Hayden Triggs, 20 Steven Luatua, 21 Jamie Booth, 22 Ihaia West, 23 Francis Saili.
Brumbies: 15 Robbie Coleman, 14 Joe Tomane, 13 Henry Speight, 12 Christian Lealiifano, 11 James Dargaville, 10 Matt Toomua, 9 Nic White, 8 Jarrad Butler, 7 David Pocock, 6 Scott Fardy, 5 Sam Carter, 4 Blake Enever, 3 Ben Alexander, 2 Stephen Moore (captain), 1 Scott Sio.
Replacements: 16 Josh Mann-Rea, 17 JP Smith, 18 Ruan Smith, 19 Jordan Smiler, 20 Ita Vaea, 21 Michael Dowsett, 22 Lausii Taliauli, 23 Nigel Ah Wong.
Referee: Andrew Lees
Assistant referees: Nick Briant, Brendon Pickerill
TMO: Ben Skeen
Saturday, April 11
Crusaders v Highlanders
(AMI Stadium, Christchurch – Kick-off: 19.35; 07.35 GMT)
Were the Sharks really that bad, or were the Crusaders that good?
That has been the question asked since the seven-time champions put 50-odd points past the Sharks in Durban last week.
The Highlanders will provide the answer to that, as they are a team capable of testing the resolve of even the most powerful outfits.
While the Crusaders had to make the long trek across the Indian Ocean – a well documented fact that the east-to-west trip takes more out of teams – the Highlanders come off a bye.
Highlanders coach Jamie Joseph said the side was looking forward to the derby.
'The guys are jumping around getting ready for a tough challenge against the Crusaders,'' Joseph told the Otago Daily Times.
''The Crusaders are coming off a 50-point win over the Sharks. They really smashed them, so we know we are going to be up against it.
"Obviously, their confidence should be high so that basically means we are going up there and are going to have to play very well.''
The Highlanders, who have already had their two byes, are one point and a position above the Crusaders.
Joseph said the next phase of the season was the coming four weeks when the side had two games away from home and two in Dunedin.
They travel to Christchurch, then return to Dunedin to play the Blues, nip over to Australia and play the Brumbies, before returning home to play the Sharks at home before heading overseas.'
Recent results:
2015: Crusaders won 26-20, Dunedin
2014: Crusaders won 34-8, Christchurch
2014: Crusaders won 32-30, Dunedin
2013: Crusaders won 40-12, Dunedin
2013: Crusaders won 24-8, Christchurch
2012: Crusaders won 51-18, Christchurch
2012: Highlanders won 27-24, Dunedin
Prediction: The Crusaders have won their last six against the Highlanders; another victory would equal their best run of seven wins on the bounce against the Dunedin-based side. The Highlanders have failed to reach double figures in their last two away games against the Crusaders. The Highlanders are playing away from home for just the second time this season. The Crusaders boast the best scrum success rate (95 percent) in the competition. The Highlanders' line-out success rate (91 percent) is the second-best this year behind the Brumbies (92 percent). Eleven of the Crusaders' 25 tries this year have been in the third quarter of matches, no other side has scored more than seven in the same period. Only the Waratahs (six) have conceded more five-pointers in the same timeframe than the Highlanders (five). You can never discount the Highlanders, but the smart money will be on the Crusaders to win – by less than 10 points.
Teams:
Crusaders: 15 Israel Dagg, 14 David Havili, 13 Kieron Fonotia, 12 Ryan Crotty, 11 Nemani Nadolo, 10 Colin Slade, 9 Andy Ellis, 8 Kieran Read (captain), 7 Matt Todd, 6 Jordan Taufua, 5 Sam Whitelock, 4 Jimmy Tupou, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Ben Funnell, 1 Joe Moody.
Replacements: 16 Codie Taylor, 17 Alex Hodgman, 18 Nepo Laulala, 19 Scott Barrett, 20 Richie McCaw, 21 Mitchell Drummond, 22 Dan Carter, 23 Nafi Tuitavake.
Highlanders: 15 Ben Smith (co-captain), 14 Waisake Naholo, 13 Malakai Fekitoa, 12 Shaun Treeby, 11 Patrick Osborne, 10 Lima Sopoaga, 9 Aaron Smith, 8 Nasi Manu (co-captain), 7 James Lentjes, 6 Elliot Dixon, 5 Joe Wheeler, 4 Tom Franklin, 3 Josh Hohneck, 2 Ash Dixon, 1 Brendon Edmonds.
Replacements: 16 Liam Coltman, 17 Daniel Lienert-Brown, 18 Pingi Tala'apitaga, 19 Mark Reddish, 20 Dan Pryor, 21 Fumiaki Tanaka, 22 Marty Banks, 23 Jason Emery.
Referee: Glen Jackson (New Zealand)
Assistant referees: Kane McBride (New Zealand), Shane McDermott (New Zealand)
TMO: Glenn Newman (New Zealand)
Waratahs v Stormers
(Allianz Stadium, Sydney – Kick-off: 19.40, 11.40 SAST; 10.40 GMT)
The defending champion Waratahs will get their first taste of South African opposition this season.
The Stormers, desperate to end the three-match losing streak that has seen them drop from first to ninth in the last month, are just one-point and one spot on the table behind the Waratahs.
Not even the absence of captain Duane Vermeulen – rested in accordance with a request from Springbok coach Heyneke Meyer – can convince the Waratahs that the Stormers are a soft touch.
Waratahs defence coach Nathan Grey, said that the Stormers would still provide a serious challenge for the defending champions.
"They're a very physical side," Grey said.
"Yes, Vermeulen's not playing, but they're getting back Juan De Jongh, another starting player, their vice-captain who has been named as their captain [in replace of Vermeulen]," Grey said.
"You lose a bit somewhere you gain somewhere else. They played very well against the Hurricanes last week and were a little bit unlucky not to get a result there. But they provide a lot of firepower across the park and they've got good skills so we're very much aware of that."
Stormers assistant coach Robbie Fleck was equally complimentary of the opposition this week.
"The Waratahs are a quality outfit," Fleck said in a teleconference call from Sydney.
"They've proven it over the past few years, having taken on the best teams in Super Rugby and beating them.
"They're big, they ask a lot of questions of you defensively and their defence is accurate too.
"We need to be at our best against them, but we have taken confidence from the ‘Canes match and will use that on Saturday," he said.
Recent results:
2014: Waratahs won 22-11, Cape Town
2013: Waratahs won 21-15, Sydney
2012: Stormers won 19-13, Cape Town
2010: Stormers won 25-6, Cape Town (semifinal)
2010: Stormers won 27-6, Cape Town
2009: Waratahs won 12-6, Sydney
Prediction: The Waratahs have won 12 of their last 13 at home in Super Rugby; their average margin of victory in those 12 wins is
18.5 points. The Tahs have won the last two meetings between the sides, but have never won three games in a row against the Stormers. None of the last eight meetings between the sides have seen 40+ points on the board. The Waratahs have won fewer turnovers per game (5.2) than any other side this season, while opponents of the Stormers have averaged fewer turnovers won (5.4) than vs any other opponent. The Stormers have managed more scrum steals than any other side this season and have forced a lower success rate (74 percent) at the opposition feed than any other team. Only Damian de Allende (29) has beaten more defenders than Israel Folau (26) so far this season. This is probably the game of the weekend, so much at stake for two quality teams just outside the play-off zone. The Stormers are close to breaking that drought, but the Waratahs may just have the edge on them – and will win by less than 10 points.
Teams:
Waratahs: 15 Israel Folau, 14 Taqele Naiyaravoro, 13 Matt Carraro, 12 Kurtley Beale, 11 Rob Horne, 10 Bernard Foley, 9 Nick Phipps, 8 Wycliff Palu, 7 Michael Hooper, 6 Jacques Potgieter, 5 David Dennis (captain), 4 Will Skelton, 3 Sekope Kepu, 2 Tolu Latu, 1 Benn Robinson.
Replacements – from: Tatafu Polota-Nau, Jeremy Tilse, Paddy Ryan, Mitchell Chapman, Pat McCutcheon, Stephen Hoiles, Brendan McKibbin, Adam Ashley-Cooper, Jono Lance, Peter Betham.
Stormers: 15 Cheslin Kolbe, 14 Kobus van Wyk, 13 Juan de Jongh (captain), 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Dillyn Leyds, 10 Demetri Catrakilis, 9 Nic Groom, 8 Nizaam Carr, 7 Michael Rhodes, 6 Schalk Burger, 5 Manuel Carizza, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Frans Malherbe, 2 Siyabonga Ntubeni, 1 Steven Kitshoff.
Replacements: 16 Mbongeni Mbonambi, 17 Oliver Kebble, 18 Vincent Koch, 19 Jean Kleyn, 20 Siya Kolisi, 21 Louis Schreuder, 22 Kurt Coleman, 23 Huw Jones.
Referee: Mike Fraser (New Zealand)
Assistant referees: Angus Gardner, James Leckie (New Zealand)
TMO: Peter Marshall
Compiled by Jan de Koning
@King365ed
@rugby365com
Statistical information provided by Opta Sports
