PREVIEW: Super Rugby, Round 15 - Part Two
That showdown will be decided on Friday.
However, Saturday's fixtures are all equally as critical, even though they are for the 'minor' places.
The first two matches of the day are trans-Tasman encounters involving three teams in a tight race.
The Chiefs (on 32 points from 11 matches) host the Waratahs (current Australian conference leaders – with 31 points from 11 matches).
However, with the Rebels just seven points behind, the Waratahs are by no means guaranteed top spot in the Aussie conference.
The erratic Reds may be out of the race (18 points from 11 matches), but they could have a big say. They host the Highlanders (also on 32 points from 11 matches).
The third match of the day also involves a team out of the running, but with the chance to cause a big upset.
The Bulls (24 points from 12 matches and just outside the play-off zone) host the Brumbies – who are 14th with 16th place.
And the weekend concludes with the struggling Stormers (24 points from 13 matches) hosting the South African conference leaders, the Lions – who are second overall (as a result of the conference structure) with 36 points from 13 matches.
We take a look at Saturday's matches!
Saturday, May 26:
Chiefs v Waratahs
(Waikato Stadium, Hamilton – Kick-off: 19.35; 17.35 AEST; 07.35 GMT)
The Waratahs have set their sights high after breaking Australia's Super Rugby 40-match drought against New Zealand opposition, with flyhalf Bernard Foley saying the Sydneysiders believe they can win the title for the first time since 2014.
The Waratahs lead the Australian conference, putting them in the box seat to claim a top-three spot in the play-offs, and Foley said they were capable of maintaining the form that saw them down Highlanders 41-12.
"Everyone's saying how good it was that it's finally happened [ending the losing streak]," Foley said ahead of Saturday's match against the Chiefs.
"But for us, it's something we haven't spoken about because we know we can be doing it each week.
"It's something this team is capable of.
"We have to do it regularly and we'll take the congratulations and the back-slapping at the end of the season when we've won this competition."
In the Chiefs, the Waratahs face an opponent known for their physicality.
"That's what we are expecting again this weekend,"coach Daryl Gibson said.
"The way they play the game, they are strong in contact and at the breakdown.
"They are also good with ball in hand from loose play so we cannot afford to be loose in any way.
"It is no secret that we like to play positive rugby with the ball in hand, that's a combination of what we have been doing at training.
"At the same time, we are really trying to tighten up our turnovers because with adventure comes mistakes."
Gibson said the challenge for the team this weekend is to continue the momentum from last week's win against the Highlanders.
"Our performance last week was pleasing, and on par with what we were projecting.
"This weekend we want an even more improved performance because consistency is important."
Recent results:
2017: Chiefs won 46-31, Hamilton
2016: Waratahs won 45-25, Sydney
2014: Waratahs won 33-17, New Plymouth
2013: Waratahs won 25-20, Sydney
2012: Chiefs won 30-13, Hamilton
Prediction: The Waratahs have won six of their last eight games against the Chiefs, though they will be looking to avoid successive defeats to them for the first time since a three-game drought from 2006 to 2008. The Chiefs have won 11 of their last 12 games against teams from Australia, including each of their last seven on the bounce. The 'Tahs have won just one of their last 10 games played outside Australia, picking up just two losing bonus points in that time. The Waratahs have conceded just 55 points in the final quarter of games this season; only the Hurricanes (31) and Crusaders (34) have conceded fewer in that period. Damian McKenzie has made 15 break passes this season, the second most of any player in the competition behind Elton Jantjies (17). If the game was in Sydney, you could have predicted a Waratahs win with confidence. In Hamilton, it will be a much tougher affair and the Chiefs could sneak it – by a late converted try.
Teams:
Chiefs: 15 Solomon Alaimalo, 14 Toni Pulu, 13 Anton Lienert-Brown, 12 Charlie Ngatai (captain), 11 Sean Wainui, 10 Damian McKenzie, 9 Brad Weber, 8 Liam Messam, 7 Mitch Karpik, 6 Luke Jacobson, 5 Michael Allardice, 4 Brodie Retallick, 3 Angus Ta'avao, 2 Nathan Harris, 1 Karl Tu'inukuafe.
Replacements: 16 Samisoni Taukei'aho, 17 Sam Prattley, 18 Jeff Thwaites, 19 Jesse Parete, 20 Matt Matich, 21 Te Toiroa Tahuriorangi, 22 Marty McKenzie, 23 Shaun Stevenson.
Waratahs: 15 Israel Folau, 14 Cameron Clark, 13 Curtis Rona, 12 Kurtley Beale, 11 Taqele Naiyaravoro, 10 Bernard Foley, 9 Nick Phipps, 8 Michael Wells, 7 Michael Hooper (captain), 6 Will Miller, 5 Rob Simmons, 4 Tom Staniforth, 3 Sekope Kepu, 2 Damien Fitzpatrick, 1 Tom Robertson.
Replacements: 16 Tolu Latu, 17 Harry Johnson-Holmes, 18 Paddy Ryan, 19 Jed Holloway, 20 Brad Wilkin, 21 Jake Gordon, 22 Lalakai Foketi, 23 Bryce Hegarty.
Referee: Glen Jackson (New Zealand)
Assistant referees: Angus Mabey (New Zealand), Cam Stone (New Zealand)
TMO: Aaron Paterson (New Zealand)
Reds v Highlanders
(Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane – Kick-off: 19.45; 21.45 NZ time; 09.45 GMT)
It has been a tough time for the Reds, with the news that James Slipper had joined the Brisbane outfit's 'hall of infamy'.
Slipper joined Karmichael Hunt on the list of Reds player caught for illicit drug use.
"We have had a good training week and there is a real determination amongst the group to meet the challenge on Saturday," Reds assistant coach <Mark Hammett said of the upheavals they faced.
"The Reds in Brisbane are always a difficult prospect and their performance last week demonstrates their capabilities," he added.
Reds coach Brad Thorn also spoke of the "tough challenge" that awaits them.
"The Highlanders are a good side and they'll be hurting," Thorn said.
"We have shown we can be competitive. Now we need to take it to the next level.
"The guys are pumped to be back at home this weekend.
"We haven't played in front of the Queensland faithful in four weeks and the last time we were there was a pretty special win over the Lions.
"We're hoping to replicate that great atmosphere on Saturday."
Recent results:
2017: Highlanders won 40-17, Dunedin
2016: Reds won 28-27, Brisbane
2015: Highlanders won 20-13, Dunedin
2014: Reds won 38-31, Brisbane
2013: Reds won 34-33, Dunedin
Prediction: The Reds have won five of their last seven games against the Highlanders, but just one of their last three; they haven't lost back-to-back games against the Dunedin franchise since 2004/2005. The Reds have won four of their last five games on home turf; however, their only loss in that time came in the only one of the five against New Zealand opposition (Chiefs). The Highlanders have won seven of their last nine games in Australia; they had won just one of 15 games in the country prior to that run. The Queensland side has made just six offloads per game this season, fewer than any other team in the competition and four per game fewer than the Highlanders. Three of the top four busiest tacklers in Super Rugby 2018 ply their trade for the Highlanders this season; Luke Whitelock (161), Thomas Franklin (149), and Dillon Hunt (149) are matched only by the Lions' Franco Mostert (152) thus far. It is hard to see the Reds overcome their internal turmoil. If they do, they will win. We think the Highlanders will win by 12 points.
Teams:
Reds: 15 Hamish Stewart, 14 Izaia Perese, 13 Samu Kerevi, 12 Duncan Paia'aua, 11 Jordan Petaia, 10 Jono Lance, 9 Ben Lucas, 8 Scott Higginbotham (captain), 7 George Smith, 6 Angus Scott-Young, 5 Harry Hockings, 4 Izack Rodda, 3 Taniela Tupou, 2 Brandon Paenga-Amosa, 1 Jean-Pierre Smith.
Replacements: 16 Andrew Ready, 17 Sef Fa'agase, 18 Ruan Smith, 19 Kane Douglas, 20 Caleb Timu, 21 Liam Wright, 22 Moses Sorovi, 23 Aidan Toua.
Highlanders: 15 Josh McKay, 14 Waisake Naholo, 13 Rob Thompson, 12 Teihorangi Walden, 11 Tevita Li, 10 Lima Sopoaga, 9 Kayne Hammington, 8 Marino Mikaele-Tu'u, 7 Dillon Hunt, 6 James Lentjes, 5 Tom Franklin, 4 Jackson Hemopo, 3 Tyrel Lomax, 2 Ash Dixon (captain), 1 Daniel Lienert-Brown.
Replacements: 16 Greg Pleasants-Tate, 17 Aki Seiuli, 18 Kalolo Tuiloma, 19 Josh Dickson, 20 Liam Squire, 21 Aaron Smith, 22 Josh Ioane, 23 Richard Buckman.
Referee: Rasta Rasivhenge (South Africa)
Assistant referees: Jordan Way (Australia), Graham Cooper (Australia)
TMO: Damien Mitchelmore (Australia)
Bulls v Brumbies
(Loftus Versfeld, Pretoria – Kick-off: 15.05; 23.05 AEST; 13.05 GMT)
The Brumbies may have taken their eye off the ball and it could cost them.
The Canberra franchise is desperate to get back to winning ways and are looking at their next home game – and crowd support – to achieve it.
After a paltry 5,283 spectators turned up for their last game in Canberra – their second-worst turnout ever – they are now appealing to fans' charitable side.
In a bid to get more people through the turnstiles, the franchise will donate AU$15,000 to three charities if 15,000 fans brave the winter weather on Sunday week against the Sunwolves.
Brumbies hooker Josh Mann-Rea said the target was achievable despite dwindling interest in Super Rugby and the Brumbies, who have won just three from 11 this season.
"I know what it's like in winter down here, you're not just fighting a bad performance – you're fighting winter and the cold winds," he said.
"I've played in games here where we have cracked 20,000 so I think it is achievable, for sure."
Even though they are looking past this coming weekend's encounter with the Bulls, the men from Pretoria are looking for a more immediate resolution to their headaches.
"We know that our effort last weekend [a 24-54 loss to the Jaguares in Buenos Aires] was not good enough," Bulls coach John Mitchell said.
"It was a setback in our efforts and ambitions for the season.
"We do get another opportunity a week later and we are playing at home, so we have a great chance to redeem ourselves in front of our home support," Mitchell added.
Captain Burger Odendaal admitted that the Brumbies all-round game could prove a handful.
"They are certainly well-balanced and we need to be sharp in execution and finishing off if we want to secure a win," Odendaal said.
"The guys are keen to embrace this opportunity though, especially at home in front of our supporters."
Recent results:
2016: Brumbies won 23-6, Canberra
2015: Brumbies won 22-16, Canberra
2014: Bulls won 44-23, Pretoria
2013: Brumbies won 26-23, Pretoria (semifinal)
2013: Brumbies won 23-20, Canberra
Prediction: The Brumbies have won four of their last five games against the Bulls, including each of their last two; the last time they won more was a five-game streak from 1999 to 2003. The Bulls have won four of their last six games on home turf as well as picking up one losing bonus point in that time. The Brumbies have won the second game of each of their last two multi-game tours of South Africa in Super Rugby, while the last time they lost multiple games in a single tour of the country was in 2014. The Bulls (91 percent) boast the best line-out success rate of any team in the competition this season, winning a league-high 14 line-outs per game. David Pocock has won 2.4 turnovers per game this season, no other player in the competition has won more than 1.6. The Bulls have the ability to bounce back from poor performances, while the Brumbies' lack of discipline has been a costly issue. The Bulls should win by eight points.
Teams:
Bulls: 15 Warrick Gelant, 14 Travis Ismaiel, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Burger Odendaal, 11 Johnny Kotze, 10 Handre Pollard, 9 Ivan van Zyl, 8 Marco van Staden, 7 Nic de Jager, 6 Roelof Smit, 5 Rudolph Snyman, 4 Jason Jenkins, 3 Conraad van Vuuren, 2 Jaco Visagie, 1 Trevor Nyakane.
Replacements: 16 Adriaan Strauss, 17 Nqobisizwe Mxoli, 18 Matthys Basson, 19 Ruben van Heerden, 20 Thembelani Bholi, 21 Andre Warner, 22 Manie Libbok, 23 Divan Rossouw.
Brumbies: 15 Tom Banks, 14 Henry Speight, 13 Tevita Kuridrani, 12 Kyle Godwin, 11 Andrew Muirhead, 10 Christian Lealiifano, 9 Joe Powell, 8 Isi Naisarani, 7 David Pocock, 6 Lachlan Mccaffrey, 5 Sam Carter, 4 Blake Enever, 3 Allan Alaalatoa, 2 Folau Fainga'a, 1 Scott Sio.
Replacements: 16 Connal Mcinerney, 17 Nick Mayhew, 18 Leslie Leuluaialii-Makin, 19 Richie Arnold, 20 Tom Cusack, 21 Matt Lucas, 22 Wharenui Hawera, 23 Andrew Smith.
Referee: Marius van der Westhuizen (South Africa)
Assistant referees: AJ Jacobs (South Africa), Jaco Pretorius (South Africa)
TMO: Willie Vos (South Africa)
Stormers v Lions
(Newlands, Cape Town – Kick-off: 17.15; 15.15 GMT)
Lions coach Swys de Bruin has jokingly cursed' Tokyo outfit 'the Sunwolves for beating the Stormers last weekend.
He suggested it would make it harder for his team to win in Cape Town, despite topping the South African conference.
"The Stormers will be desperate to restore pride, after losing to Sunwolves in Hong Kong," De Bruin said of a side that has won five matches and lost one at home this season.
"It is going to be a typical South African derby in Cape Town, a real arm-wrestle," predicted the coach.
Lions, the 2016 and 2017 runners-up, are unbeaten in 20 matches against South African opponents since losing 33-35 away to Bulls three years ago.
The Stormers are still holding out hope of making the play-offs.
"We had this chat on Monday," Stormers captain Siyamthanda Kolisi said.
"I think our main focus is to focus on this game and what we have to do because we can't really be hoping teams lose – we are not even worried about that.
"If we make it, then we make it.
"We want to finish strong in the next three games and that is the important thing because you don't want to be in-between – you either going to be in or out and our goal is to finish strong in the last three games, that is our main focus."
Stormers coach Robbie Fleck said that his team are intent on delivering a complete performance at Newlands.
“It is great to be back at Newlands this weekend for what should be another big game," Fleck said.
"Our focus is to be as accurate as possible and execute our plans so that we are able to impose ourselves," he added.
Recent results:
2018: Lions won 52-31, Johannesburg
2017: Lions won 29-16, Cape Town
2016: Lions won 29-22, Johannesburg
2015: Stormers and Lions drew 19-all, Cape Town
2015: Stormers won 22-19, Johannesburg
Prediction: The Lions have won their last three games on the bounce against the Stormers by an average margin of 14 points; they had previously earned just one win in 13 games against the Cape Town outfit. A 15-9 loss to the Chiefs in Round 13 snapped a five-game winning run at home for the Stormers, who will now be looking to avoid consecutive home defeats for the first time since losing three in succession in 2011. Seven of the last nine South African derbies have been won by the home team on the day, including each of the last three. The Lions make 1.5 line-out steals per game this season, more than any other franchise in the competition. Damian de Allende has made 147 carries this campaign, the second most of any player, while also having beaten the third most defenders (48) of any player. At Newlands, the Stormers always have a realistic chance. The Lions have also been far too erratic this season and we expect a motivated Stormers team to win by 15 points … perhaps even more.
Teams:
Stormers: 15 Sarel Marais, 14 Dillyn Leyds, 13 Johannes Engelbrecht, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Raymond Rhule, 10 Jean-Luc du Plessis, 9 Dewaldt Duvenage, 8 Sikhumbuzo Notshe, 7 Kobus van Dyk, 6 Siyamthanda Kolisi (captain), 5 Chris van Zyl, 4 Jan de Klerk, 3 Wilco Louw, 2 Ramone Samuels, 1 Jacobus Janse van Rensburg.
Replacements: 16 Mbongeni Mbonambi, 17 Steven Kitshoff, 18 Frans Malherbe, 19 Cobus Wiese, 20 Nizaam Carr, 21 Paul de Wet, 22 EW Viljoen, 23 Craig Barry.
Lions: 15 Andries Coetzee, 14 Ruan Combrinck, 13 Rohan Janse Van Rensburg, 12 Harold Vorster, 11 Aphiwe Dyantyi, 10 Elton Jantjies, 9 Nic Groom, 8 Albertus Smith, 7 Franco Mostert (captain), 6 Marnus Schoeman, 5 Marvin Orie, 4 Lourens Erasmus, 3 Ruan Dreyer, 2 Robbie Coetzee, 1 Jacques Van Rooyen.
Replacements: 16 Corne Fourie, 17 Dylan Smith, 18 Jacobie Adriaanse, 19 Rhyno Herbst, 20 Hacjivah Dayimani, 21 Ross Cronje, 22 Madosh Tambwe, 23 Sylvian Mahuza.
Referee: Nick Briant (New Zealand)
Assistant referees: Quinton Immelman (South Africa), Stephan Geldenhuys (South Africa)
TMO: Christie du Preez (South Africa)
Compiled by Jan de Koning, additional reporting by AFP
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* Statistics provided by Opta Sports
