PREVIEW: Super Rugby, Round 16 - Part One
FRIDAY FRENZY: It may well be the theme for the next three weeks – desperation. That is certainly the case for all four teams in the two Friday matches.
The level of desperation may vary.
The Blues (in 13th place with 26 points) will be more desperate than the Bulls (seventh, 32).
However, with just three rounds remaining, the Bulls know that only victory will suffice.
The same applies to the Rebels (fifth, 33 points) and Waratahs (12th, 26).
Injuries and World Cup resting protocols will also play important roles in the final run-in to the play-offs.
We look at Friday’s matches!
Friday, May 31:
Blues v Bulls
(Eden Park, Auckland – Kick-off: 19.35; 09.35 SA time; 07.35 GMT)
The Blues may have lost five of their last six matches, but they were not blown away in any of those matches.
In fact, the Blues have scored 15 tries in those outings – suggesting they are not that far off the pace.
Against the table-topping Crusaders last week they showed intent and intensity in an 11-19 loss in Christchurch.
Blues coach Leon MacDonald said he wants to see the same level of commitment and want his team to convert their attacking chances on Friday.
“We want to show our fans a top-quality performance,” MacDonald said.
“While it is our last regular competition game at home, we would love to be back here in the play-offs,” he added.
That means they have to win their remaining games – against the Bulls, Reds (in Brisbane) and Hurricanes (in Wellington).
MacDonald said the side is not watching the table, but rather fully focused on the remaining three regular-season games.
“We are taking them one at a time and want to finish each really strongly,” the Blues coach said.
“Then we add up the points and see if we continue into the play-offs.
“We’ve done a lot of things well in recent weeks and we have trained impressively.
“We are ready to produce a complete performance, and there’s no better opportunity than at Eden Park in front of our fans, friends and family.”
Bulls coach Pote Human is well aware of the dire nature of their situation – with games against Blues, Highlanders (in Dunedin) and Lions (Pretoria) to come.
“We are with our backs to the wall,” he said, adding that it is a ‘must-win’ situation and they approach the game like a final.
He said his side need to start well against the Blues, who have won 11 of their 12 home games against the Bulls.
“We need to get a good start and sustain that throughout the match,” Human said.
“They have some quality players, but the real test will be in the set-pieces.
“The Blues have the best scrum success rate [97 percent] in the competition, so that will be a critical area for us.
“That said, the Blues is the team that has conceded the most tries against driving mauls and that will be a focus for us.”
Stand-in captain Burger Odendaal said they have clear objectives in this match.
“We are the underdogs, no doubt about that,” Odendaal said.
“That is good for us, as we can only concentrate on our own game and that we want to achieve.”
Recent results:
2017: Blues won 38-14, Auckland
2015: Blues 23-18, Auckland
2014: Bulls won 38-22, Pretoria
2013: Bulls won 28-21, Auckland
2012: Blues won 29-23, Pretoria
Prediction: The Blues have won four of their last six Super Rugby games against the Bulls, the two losses sandwiched in between back-to-back victories. The Blues have won 11 of their 12 home games against the Bulls in Super Rugby history, over half of those wins (seven) have seen a final margin of 13+. The Blues have won five of their last six Super Rugby games on home turf, including a 23-8 win over the Chiefs in their last home fixture. The Blues boast the best scrum success rate (97 percent) of any team this Super Rugby season and have also lost a league-low total of three scrums. The Bulls’ Duane Vermeulen has won 20 turnovers thus far in Super Rugby 2019, more than any other player in the competition and eight more than Blues’ best Dalton Papali’i.
Prediction: Blues
Margin: 10 points
Teams:
Blues: 15 Melani Nanai, 14 Caleb Clarke, 13 Thomas Faiane, 12 Ma’a Nonu, 11 Rieko Ioane, 10 Harry Plummer, 9 Jonathan Ruru, 8 Akira Ioane, 7 Blake Gibson, 6 Tom Robinson, 5 Scott Scrafton, 4 Patrick Tuipulotu, 3 Ofa Tu’ungafasi, 2 James Parsons, 1 Alex Hodgman.
Replacements: 16 Leni Apisai, 17 Lua Li, 18 Marcel Renata, 19 Gerard Cowley-Tuioti, 20 Hoskins Sotutu, 21 Augustine Pulu, 22 Otere Black, 23 Tanielu Tele’a.
Bulls: 15 Warrick Gelant, 14 Cornal Hendricks, 13 John-Ben Kotze, 12 Burger Odendaal (captain), 11 Rosko Specman, 10 Manie Libbok, 9 Ivan van Zyl, 8 Paul Schoeman, 7 Hanro Liebenberg, 6 Marco van Staden, 5 Rudolph Snyman, 4 Jason Jenkins, 3 Trevor Nyakane, 2 Schalk Brits, 1 Lizo Gqoboka.
Replacements: 16 Jaco Visagie, 17 Simphiwe Matanzima, 18 Wiehahn Herbst, 19 Jannes Kirsten, 20 Ruan Steenkamp, 21 Andre Warner, 22 John Jackson, 23 Divan Rossouw.
Referee: Mike Fraser (New Zealand)
Assistant referees: Brendon Pickerill (New Zealand), Dan Waenga (New Zealand)
TMO: Ben Skeen (New Zealand)
Rebels v Waratahs
(AAMI Park, Melbourne – Kick-off: 19.45; 09.45 GMT)
The desperation in the Waratahs camp is so intense that coach Daryl Gibson is willing to risk a potential showdown with Wallaby coach Michael Cheika, again declining to rest his Test stars for this must-win encounter.
Under Rugby Australia protocols, driven by Cheika, all state coaches are obliged to rest their Wallabies hopefuls for at least one game, if not two, during the Super Rugby season to ensure they are not over-worked before this year’s World Cup in Japan.
Gibson is still required to give backline linchpins Kurtley Beale and Bernard Foley, Wallabies captain Michael Hooper and fellow forwards Rob Simmons and Sekope Kepu spells.
But with the Waratahs’ play-off hopes hanging by a thread, Gibson is running out of time and the coach all but conceded he had no plans on resting his Wallabies from crunch matches with the Rebels in Melbourne on Friday and the Brumbies next week in Sydney.
“Obviously the opportunity for our boys to have those match-ups out of these next two games, they’re derby games that are essentially Australian trials in my eyes,” Gibson said.
“These guys are not only playing hard for the Waratahs but they are also putting their hands up for further selection.
“So [there’s] plenty at stake for them, a lot of meaning in these games, so I want to give them the opportunity.”
Gibson was coy when asked if he’d be prepared to run the gauntlet and not rest his Wallabies should they need to beat the Highlanders in the final round in three weeks to make the play-offs.
“Hypothetically it would nice to be in that situation and wouldn’t that be a good conversation to have,” he said.
With just three games to play before finals, Rebels coach Dave Wessels knows his team also needs to keep on winning if they are to keep the pressure on the conference-leading Brumbies and stay in the play-off zone.
The last time the teams met, in Round 10, the Rebels blew a big lead to fall to a 20-23 defeat, but the coach said his team had improved a lot since then.
He said spirits were high in the camp following their record 52-7 win over the Sunwolves, while his players were physically in great shape.
“I feel like the last couple of weeks there’s been a lot of growth in the group,” Wessels said.
“We learnt some hard lessons in that Waratahs game.
“One thing we’ve improved on a lot is how to control moments in the game when things don’t go your way and not letting one bad moment become two.”
Recent results:
2019: Waratahs won 23-20, Sydney
2018: Waratahs won 31-26, Melbourne
2018: Waratahs won 51-27, Sydney
2017: Waratahs won 50-23, Sydney
2017: Waratahs won 32-25, Melbourne
Prediction: The NSW Waratahs have won 14 of their 16 matches against the Rebels in Super Rugby history, including their last five matches on the bounce. Six of the last eight Australian derbies in Super Rugby have been won by the home team on the day, with two of the last three won by the team trailing at half-time on the day. The Rebels have won four games on home soil thus far in Super Rugby 2019; they have never won five home games within the span of a single season. The Rebels have stolen 19 line-outs thus far in Super Rugby 2019, more than any other team in the competition. Michael Hooper (NSW Waratahs) has made 15 tackles per game this Super Rugby season, more than any other player in the competition and four per game more than Rebels’ best Luke Jones (11).
Prediction: Rebels
Margin: Eight points
Teams:
Melbourne Rebels: 15 Dane Haylett-Petty (captain), 14 Jack Maddocks, 13 Reece Hodge, 12 Matt To’omua, 11 Marika Koroibete, 10 Quade Cooper, 9 Will Genia, 8 Isi Naisarani, 7 Richard Hardwick, 6 Luke Jones, 5 Adam Coleman, 4 Matt Philip, 3 Jermaine Ainsley, 2 Anaru Rangi, 1 Tetera Faulkner.
Replacements: 16 Hugh Roach, 17 Matt Gibbon, 18 Sam Talakai, 19 Ross Haylett-Petty, 20 Angus Cottrell, 21 Michael Ruru, 22 Billy Meakes, 23 Tom English.
Waratahs: 15 Kurtley Beale, 14 Alex Newsome, 13 Adam Ashley-Cooper, 12 Lalakai Foketi, 11 Curtis Rona, 10 Bernard Foley, 9 Nick Phipps, 8 Michael Wells, 7 Michael Hooper, 6 Lachlan Swinton, 5 Rob Simmons, 4 Ned Hanigan, 3 Sekope Kepu, 2 Damien Fitzpatrick, 1 Tom Robertson.
Replacements: 16 Andrew Tuala, 17 Harry Johnson-Holmes, 18 Chris Talakai, 19 Jed Holloway, 20 Will Miller, 21 Jake Gordon, 22 Mack Mason, 23 Cameron Clark.
Referee: Paul Williams (New Zealand)
Assistant referees: Egon Seconds (South Africa), Jaco Peyper (South Africa)
TMO: James Leckie (Australia)
Compiled by Jan de Koning, additional reporting by AAP
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* Statistics provided by Opta Sports
