PREVIEW: Super Rugby, Round 16 - Part Two
END OF AN ERA: The Lions’ dominance of the game in South Africa is about to be consigned to the scrap heap.
Yes, you have witnessed the end of an era.
From a coach making hairbrained statements, to players breaching team protocols.
These events are all part of the meltdown at Ellis Park.
The Lions’ three-season dominance of the South African conference is about to come to an end and a loss to the Stormers on Saturday will see the 2016, 2017 and 2018 runners-up drop out of the 2019 play-off zone and most likely slide further into a mire of mediocrity.
The Johannesburg-based outfit lies fourth in the SA conference 30 points – just ahead of the Stormers, only on matches won – and trail the table-topping Jaguares by six points with just three rounds left.
It is the most dramatic of all the subplots in a weekend of intrigue.
We look at Saturday’s matches!
Saturday, June 1:
Sunwolves v Brumbies
(Prince Chichibu Stadium, Tokyo – Kick-off: 14.15; 15.15 Canberra time; 05.15 GMT)
The Brumbies lead the Australian conference with three rounds to go, but Dan McKellar is wary of the dangers posed by the bottom-placed, yet unpredictable, Sunwolves.
“We know they’re going to be dangerous,” McKellar said.
“They’re always tricky, especially up there in front of a good crowd in Tokyo,” the coach added.
At least McKellar knows the loss of superstar David Pocock has been partially offset by the uncovering of hidden gem Jahrome Brown.
McKellar has backed his band of unheralded back row forwards to lead the Brumbies to the finals as they continue to deliver in the absence of Pocock, who retired from Super Rugby this week.
Tom Cusack and Brown have started the past five games with Wallaby Pete Samu and McKellar said he’ll stick with them for the Brumbies clash against the Sunwolves in Tokyo on Saturday.
Young gun Rob Valetini returned off the bench last week and Lachlan McCaffrey is also back in the back-row selection frame.
McKellar says he knew the quintet were all “very good footballers” when he signed them but admits Brown’s sublime form has surpassed his expectations.
Former Junior All Blacks flank Brown was signed on a temporary deal in January as an injury replacement for Ben Hyne, who tore his anterior cruciate ligament.
“Jahrome has been the surprise package, but once we got our eyes on him and had him in the system for a couple of months we soon worked out he was going to be good enough at this level,” McKellar said.
“A lot of the time you unearth new talent off the unfortunate circumstances of others and that’s how we found Jahrome, when Ben Hyne disappointingly had another injury.
“Poey has been out, Rob was out as well, which gave Jahrome an opportunity and now we know we’ve got a really good footballer.
“The reality, all those [back row] boys have performed really well.”
Recent results:
2019: Brumbies won 33-0, Canberra
2018: Brumbies won 41-31, Canberra
2018: Brumbies won 32-25, Tokyo
2016: Brumbies won 66-5, Canberra
Prediction: The Brumbies have won all four of their previous Super Rugby matches against the Sunwolves, scoring an average of 43 points per game in that span. The Sunwolves have been kept scoreless in the first halves of three of their last four Super Rugby games, only once going on to score more than seven points by full-time in that span. The Brumbies have won their last three Super Rugby games on the bounce; the last time they won more in succession was a four-game streak from May to July in 2016 – which included a 66-5 defeat of the Sunwolves. The Brumbies have conceded just 13 turnovers per game in Super Rugby 2019, the fewest of any team in the competition and four per game fewer than the Sunwolves. Gerhard van den Heever (Sunwolves) has gained 7.2 metres per carry this Super Rugby season, the most of any player to have made at least 100 carries.
Prediction: Brumbies
Margin: 15 points
Teams:
Sunwolves: 15 Semisi Masirewa, 14 Gerhard Van Den Heever, 13 Jason Emery, 12 Phil Burleigh, 11 Hosea Saumaki, 10 Hayden Parker, 9 Jamie Booth, 8 Ben Gunter, 7 Dan Pryor, 6 Yoshitaka Tokunaga, 5 Tom Rowe, 4 Mark Abbott, 3 Takuma Asahara, 2 Nathan Vella, 1 Alex Woonton
Replacements: 16 Jaba Bregvadze, 17 Masataka Mikami, 18 Conan O’Donnell, 19 Yuya Odo, 20 Kara Pryor, 21 Keisuke Uchida, 22 Takuya Yamasawa, 23 Timothy Lafaele.
Brumbies: 15 Tom Banks, 14 Henry Speight, 13 Tevita Kuridrani, 12 Irae Simone, 11 Toni Pulu, 10 Christian Lealiifano, 9 Joe Powell, 8 Pete Samu, 7 Jahrome Brown, 6 Tom Cusack, 5 Sam Carter, 4 Rory Arnold, 3 Allan Alaalatoa, 2 Folau Fainga’a, 1 James Slipper.
Replacements: 16 Connal Mcinerney, 17 Scott Sio, 18 Leslie Leuluaialii-Makin, 19 Darcy Swain, 20 Lachlan Mccaffrey, 21 Rob Valetini, 22 Matt Lucas, 23 Tom Wright
Referee: Federico Anselmi (Argentina)
Assistant referees: Nick Briant (New Zealand), Shuhei Kubo (Japan)
TMO: Minoru Fuji (Japan)
Chiefs v Crusaders
(ANZ Stadium, Suva, Fiji – Kick-off: 19.35; 19.35 NZ time; 07.35 GMT)
The Crusaders will look to seal top spot in the standings when they travel to the Fijian capital.
It is a ‘home’ game for the Chiefs, the third time the Chiefs host a fixture in Fiji and the fourth-consecutive year a Super Rugby game is played in Suva.
Chiefs coach Colin Cooper said they were excited about the challenge and to return to Fiji.
“The Crusaders is a quality side and will be another tough challenge for us,” Cooper said.
“We have everything to play for, we will need to make the most of any opportunities presented to us and when we are not attacking, we need to be disciplined and accurate with our defensive structures.
“We will have plenty of passionate fans behind us here in Fiji, it is certainly a home away from home for us. Once we stepped off the plane, we knew we were in Chiefs country.”
The Crusaders know one more win would guarantee a first place – which brings with it the distinct advantage of being at home in all their play-off matches.
On 53 points with three rounds remaining, only the Hurricanes (40 points) can still catch the Chiefs.
The Jaguares (36) are already too far behind to make up lost ground.
The Crusaders and Chiefs arrived in Suva with temperatures pushing 30 degrees C.
However, Crusaders assistant coach Jason Ryan is well aware that the conditions could change dramatically by Saturday.
The forecast was for lightning, thunder and rain during the game.
Ryan recalled a previous game when they warmed up in fine weather, only to have a torrential downpour start when they ran out to play.
The Chiefs, more than the weather, pose the biggest threat to the Crusaders’ goal of sealing top spot.
“What we have seen, in the past, is that games between the Crusaders and Chiefs have been extremely physical up front,” Ryan said.
He added it was great to see All Black Sam Cane back in the Chiefs team after Cane missed the last six months in the wake of his neck fracture in October last year.
“The breakdown will be key and they [the Chiefs] will have a lot of confidence,” Ryan said.
Recent results:
2019: Crusaders won 57-28, Christchurch
2018: Crusaders won 34-20, Hamilton
2018: Crusaders won 45-23, Christchurch
2017: Crusaders won 27-13, Christchurch (semifinal)
2017: Crusaders won 31-24, Suva
Prediction: The Crusaders have won their last five Super Rugby games on the bounce against the Chiefs, this after having won only one of their seven games against them prior. The Chiefs have led at half-time in four of their last five Super Rugby games at home against the Crusaders; however, they’ve gone on to pick up just two wins in that period. Eight of the Chiefs’ last nine Super Rugby games as hosts have been decided by a single-digit margin, including their last five on the bounce across which they’ve picked up three wins and a draw. The Chiefs have won only one of their last eight derbies in Super Rugby; though, that victory came in their last all-New Zealand clash as hosts. The Crusaders have conceded just one try in each of their last three games away from home in Super Rugby, scoring 14 of their own in reply in that time. The Crusaders have failed to score 20 points in either of their last two Super Rugby games; the last time they went longer without breaking the 20-point barrier was a three-game stint in March-April 2013. The Chiefs have conceded the fewest penalties per game (8) of any team this Super Rugby campaign, while their total of two yellow cards is also a joint-league-low. The Crusaders have scored more tries (59) and points (404) than any other team thus far in Super Rugby 2019. The Chiefs have had six different players attempt a place kick for goal in Super Rugby 2019, more than any other club in the competition (Damian McKenzie, Marty McKenzie, Brad Weber, Jack Debreczeni, Stephen Donald, Shaun Stevenson). George Bridge (Crusaders) is on a four-game tryless streak, his longest since a nine-game stretch in 2017; however, he has crossed for a five-pointer in each of his last two games against the Chiefs.
Prediction: Crusaders
Margin: 13 points
Teams:
Chiefs: 15 Solomon Alaimalo, 14 Shaun Stevenson, 13 Alex Nankivell, 12 Anton Lienert-Brown, 11 Sean Wainui, 10 Jack Debreczeni, 9 Brad Weber, 8 Pita Gus Sowakula, 7 Sam Cane (captain), 6 Lachlan Boshier, 5 Tyler Ardron, 4 Jesse Parete, 3 Nepo Laulala, 2 Samisoni Taukei’aho, 1 Atu Moli.
Replacements: 16 Bradley Slater, 17 Aidan Ross, 18 Angus Ta’avao, 19 Daymon Leasuasu, 20 Mitchell Jacobson, 21 Te Toiroa Tahuriorangi, 22 Marty McKenzie, 23 Tumua Manu.
Crusaders: 15 David Havili, 14 Sevu Reece, 13 Jack Goodhue, 12 Ryan Crotty, 11 Braydon Ennor, 10 Richie Mo’unga, 9 Mitchell Drummond, 8 Kieran Read, 7 Billy Harmon, 6 Whetukamokamo Douglas, 5 Sam Whitelock (captain), 4 Scott Barrett, 3 Michael Alaalatoa, 2 Andrew Makalio, 1 Joe Moody.
Replacements: 16 Ben Funnell, 17 Isi Tu’ungafasi, 18 George Bower, 19 Mitchell Dunshea, 20 Jordan Taufua, 21 Bryn Hall, 22 Mitchell Hunt, 23 George Bridge.
Referee: Ben O’Keeffe (New Zealand)
Assistant referees: Glen Jackson (New Zealand), James Munro (New Zealand)
TMO: Shane McDermott (New Zealand)
Reds v Jaguares
(Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane – Kick-off: 19.45; 06.45 Buenos Aires time; 09.45 GMT)
The Reds will look to break the Jaguares winning streak, with the Argentinian side yet to lose a match on Australian soil.
The Reds (last year), the Brumbies (2017) and Western Force (2017) have managed to beat the Jaguares.
But all those victories were in Buenos Aires.
On top of that Reds coach Brad Thorn was hopeful his side could end their three-game losing streak
Apart from ending a losing streak, there is the additional motivation of Scott Higginbotham, who will start at No.8 in his 100th game for Queensland.
“A big well done to Scott Higginbotham,” Thorn said.
“It’s an incredible achievement to play 100 games for one state.
“He joins a great list of players to do so and this will be a special moment for him and his family.
“As a group, we congratulate Scott on this milestone.”
Reds assistant coach Peter Ryan said the Queensland outfit will need to be more accurate on defence, which has been a problem in recent weeks.
“Defence is about attitude,” Ryan said, adding: “They [the players] have come with the right attitude this week.”
Previous results:
2018: Reds won 18-7, Buenos Aires
2017: Jaguares won 22-8, Buenos Aires
Prediction: This will be the third Super Rugby meeting between the Reds and Jaguares – and the first in Queensland – with the spoils split evenly at one win apiece from their previous encounters. The Reds have won six of their last nine Super Rugby games on home turf against teams from outside Australia, including their last two on the bounce. The Jaguares have won six of their last seven Super Rugby games, including their last two on the bounce. No team has scored more tries within the final quarter of games this Super Rugby season than the Jaguares (15). Queensland Reds’ Samu Kerevi is the only player to have scored 5+ tries and provided 5+ try assists in Super Rugby 2019 – he’s currently registered five of each.
Prediction: Jaguares
Margin: Three points
Teams:
Reds: 15 Bryce Hegarty, 14 Jock Campbell, 13 Chris Feauai-Sautia, 12 Samu Kerevi (captain), 11 Filipo Daugunu, 10 Matt McGahan , 9 Tate McDermott, 8 Scott Higginbotham, 7 Liam Wright, 6 Angus Scott-Young, 5 Lukhan Salakaia-Loto, 4 Angus Blyth, 3 Taniela Tupou, 2 Brandon Paenga-Amosa, 1 JP Smith
Replacements: 16 Alex Mafi, 17 Ruan Smith, 18 Gav Luka, 19 Harry Hockings, 20 Adam Korczyk, 21 Scott Malolua, 22 Duncan Paia’aua, 23 Hamish Stewart
Jaguares: 15 Juan Cruz Mallia, 14 Santiago Carreras, 13 Matias Moroni, 12 Matias Orlando (captain), 11 Ramiro Moyano, 10 Joaquin Diaz Bonilla, 9 Felipe Ezcurra, 8 Javier Ortega Desio, 7 Tomas Lezana, 6 Guido Petti, 5 Tomas Lavanini, 4 Lucas Paulos, 3 Lucio Sordoni, 2 Agustin Creevy, 1 Nahuel Tetaz Chaparro.
Replacements: 16 Julian Montoya, 17 Mayco Vivas, 18 Enrique Pieretto, 19 Marcos Kremer, 20 Juan Manuel Leguizamon , 21 Pablo Matera, 22 Tomas Cubelli, 23 Jeronimo De La Fuente.
Referee: Jaco Peyper (South Africa)
Assistant referees: Egon Seconds (South Africa), Paul Williams (New Zealand)
TMO: James Leckie (Australia)
Sharks v Hurricanes
(Kings Park, Durban – Kick-off: 15.05; 13.05 GMT; 01.05, Sunday, June 2 NZ time)
Brawn versus brains. That, in a nutshell, is how this crucial encounter will pan out.
The Sharks have a tricky run-in to the play-offs – with games against the Hurricanes (in Durban this week), the Jaguares (in Buenos Aires) and the Stormers (in Cape Town).
The Hurricanes, after Saturday’s outing at Kings Park, face the hapless Lions in Johannesburg and the Blues back home in Wellington.
Hurricanes coach John Plumtree said the Sharks had been improving as the season progressed.
“They’re still in the hunt for their conference and still in the hunt for the top eight,” he said.
The former Sharks mentor, Plumtree, said he expected the Durban-based franchise to take the visitors on up front.
“The boys know that and we will look forward to that challenge,” he said of the Sharks’ abrasive pack.
“If we can work hard up front and get some ball, then put them under pressure, we’ll see how it goes.
“Certainly there’s going to be times during the game when they will put us under pressure with their pack and we’ll have to look after those moments,” he added.
“We will have to be very good with the technical side of our game – around our carrying and cleanout work.
“To break it down, we’re going to have to get the ball that we want – that’s obviously fast ball – and our physicality has to be right up there as well.”
Sharks centre Lukhanyo Am spoke about the confidence they gained from their Australasian tour and last week’s win over the Lions.
A win over the Waratahs, followed by a draw with the Crusaders and a close loss to the Chiefs saw then take away seven league points from the three-match trip.
The win last week ensured the Sharks remain in the race.
“It was an important win [against the Lions] for us,” Am said.
“All local derbies are tough and we’ll take a win any day.
“However, the Hurricanes will be a tough challenge.
“It’s a game where we will really need to step up. On the day, if you don’t pitch you will get a hiding.”
Springbok loose forward Dan du Preez will make his 50th Super Rugby appearance.
Recent results:
2018: Hurricanes won 38-37, Napier
2016: Hurricanes won 41-0, Wellington (quarterfinal)
2016: Sharks won 32-15, Durban
2015: Hurricanes won 32-24, Wellington
2014: Sharks won 27-9, Durban
Prediction: The Hurricanes have won four of their previous six Super Rugby games against the Sharks, including their last two on the bounce; they have never won three successive games against the Durban outfit. The Sharks have won their last four home games on the bounce against New Zealand teams in Super Rugby, only once conceding more than 15 points in that span. The Hurricanes have won their last three Super Rugby games on the bounce away from home; the last time they won more in succession was a six-game spread to open the 2015 campaign. Only the Crusaders (25) have conceded fewer total tries than the Sharks (31) in Super Rugby 2019, though the Sharks have conceded a joint-league-low 16 second-half tries. Wes Goosen (Hurricanes) has crossed for a try in every one of his previous three Super Rugby games in South Africa; though, this will be his first visit to Durban.
Prediction: Hurricanes
Margin: Four points
Teams:
Sharks: 15 Aphelele Fassi, 14 Sibusiso Nkosi, 13 Lukhanyo Am, 12 Andre Esterhuizen, 11 Makazole Mapimpi, 10 Curwin Bosch, 9 Louis Schreuder (captain), 8 Daniel du Preez, 7 Jean-Luc du Preez, 6 Jacques Vermeulen, 5 Ruan Botha, 4 Ruben van Heerden, 3 Coenie Oosthuizen, 2 Kerron van Vuuren, 1 Mzamo Majola.
Replacements: 16 Craig Burden/Cullen Collopy, 17 Juan Schoeman, 18 Thomas du Toit, 19 Hyron Andrews, 20 Tyler Paul, 21 Cameron Wright, 22 Robert du Preez, 23. Kobus van Wyk.
Hurricanes: 15 Jordie Barrett, 14 Wes Goosen, 13 Matt Proctor, 12 Ngani Laumape, 11 Ben Lam, 10 Beauden Barrett, 9 Thomas Perenara (captain), 8 Reed Prinsep, 7 Ardie Savea, 6 Vaea Fifita, 5 Isaia Walker-Leawere, 4 James Blackwell, 3 Jeff To’omaga-Allen, 2 Asafo Aumua, 1 Toby Smith.
Replacements: 16 Dane Coles, 17 Fraser Armstrong, 18 Ross Geldenhuys, 19 Kane Le’aupepe, 20 Du’Plessis Kirifi, 21 Gareth Evans, 22 Richard Judd, 23 James Marshall.
Referee: Nic Berry (Australia)
Assistant referees: AJ Jacobs (South Africa), Divan Uys (South Africa)
TMO: Willie Vos (South Africa)
Lions v Stormers
(Ellis Park, Johannesburg – Kick-off: 17.15; 15.15 GMT)
Both teams are literally on the edge of a precipice.
With three rounds remaining the Lions are in eighth place (30 Points) and the Stormers in ninth (30).
The Lions have won a game more, thus earning the higher placing.
However, with two New Zealand teams, the Highlanders (29) and Chiefs 27), filling the next two places down, defeat at Ellis Park is not an option.
It’s safe to say the vanquished will join the ‘also-rans’ club and write the season off as a failure.
Lions coach Swys de Bruin suggested his team’s race is not run.
He pointed to last year, when they won their last three games and a couple of results went their way, allowing them to get into the play-offs and eventually reach the Final.
“It [reaching the play-offs] is still realistic,” the Lions coach said, adding: “The ball is still in our court.
“We are still aiming to make the play-offs.”
However, the Stormers have similar ambitions, which makes the Ellis Park showdown an intriguing and crucial contest.
“The Stormers have a number of Springboks,” De Bruin said.
“I was fortunate to work with them [at the national team] during the Rugby Championship and the end-of-year tour [last year].
“They have a massive pack and [are] strong in the midfield with [Damian] de Allende.
“They are a very good team they showed it against the Crusaders.”
Stormers coach Robbie Fleck said that the focus this week has been on ensuring the players are in the right space physically and mentally for the challenge.
“We want to keep building on our performances every week and this is another great opportunity for us to show what we are capable of,” Fleck said.
“The focus has been to assemble a playing group that is primed and ready both physically and mentally for what we will face on Saturday. There is no doubting the motivation within the group.
“There is no doubting the motivation within the group,” he added.
Recent results:
2019: Stormers won 19-17, Cape Town
2018: Lions won 26-23, Cape Town
2018: Lions won 52-31, Johannesburg
2017: Lions won 29-16, Cape Town
2016: Lions won 29-22, Johannesburg
Prediction: The Lions have won four of their last six Super Rugby matches against the Stormers, dipping to a two-point defeat in their last encounter. The Lions have won nine of their last 11 Super Rugby games at Emirates Airlines Park, with two of those last three wins coming after having trailed at the half-time interval. The Stormers have won their last three South African derbies on the bounce in Super Rugby, each by a margin of no more than five points. The Lions have been awarded 12 penalties per game thus far in Super Rugby 2019, the most of any team in the competition. Pieter-Steph du Toit (Stormers) has made 13 tackles per game this Super Rugby campaign, the third most of any player in the competition and more than any other South African.
Prediction: Stormers
Margin: Three points
Teams:
Lions: 15 Andries Coetzee, 14 Courtnall Skosan, 13 Lionel Mapoe, 12 Harold Vorster, 11 Aphiwe Dyantyi, 10 Shaun Reynolds, 9 Ross Cronje, 8 Kwagga Smith, 7 Vincent Tshituka, 6 Cyle Brink, 5 Marvin Orie, 4 Stephan Lewies, 3 Carlu Sadie, 2 Malcolm Marx (captain), 1 Dylan Smith.
Replacements: 16 Jan-Henning Campher, 17 Sti Sithole, 18 Johannes Jonker, 19 Reinhard Nothnagel, 20 Marnus Schoeman, 21 Hacjivah Dayimani, 22 Nic Groom, 23 Tyrone Green.
Stormers: 15 Damian Willemse, 14 Seabelo Senatla, 13 Johannes Engelbrecht, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Dillyn Leyds, 10 Joshua Stander, 9 Herschel Jantjies, 8 Sikhumbuzo Notshe, 7 Johan du Toit, 6 Jaco Coetzee, 5 Cobus Wiese, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Wilco Louw, 2 Siyabonga Ntubeni, 1 Steven Kitshoff (captain).
Replacements: 16 Chad Solomon, 17 Corne Fourie, 18 Frans Malherbe, 19 Ernst van Rhyn, 20 Marno Redelinghuys, 21 Justin Phillips, 22 Jean-Luc du Plessis, 23 Dan Kriel.
Referee: Marius van der Westhuizen (South Africa)
Assistant referees: Cwengile Jadezweni (South Africa), Stefan Geldenhuys (South Africa)
TMO: Marius Jonker (South Africa)
Compiled by Jan de Koning, additional reporting by AAP
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* Statistics provided by Opta Sports
