PREVIEW: Super Rugby, Round 17 - Part Two
PACIFIC THRILLER: With just three rounds remaining before the play-offs, there are a significant number of domestic derbies that will have a decisive influence on the final pool standings.
Two of those derbies take place on Saturday.
The day starts with the much-anticipated New Zealand derby between the Highlanders and Chiefs, in the idyllic setting of Suva.
Later in the day the Sharks host the Lions in Durban.
It is against the back-drop of the mad dash into the play-offs that Saturday’s games will play themselves out.
The Chiefs, Hurricanes, Highlanders and defending champions Crusaders are all jostling for play-off berths.
The closing rounds of competition will see each New Zealand team play at least one home game, as well as a number of crucial match ups set to determine quarterfinal places next month.
The Crusaders lead the pack, currently topping the Super Rugby table, but they have another week on the sidelines – with a bye this round.
While they are almost guaranteed to host a quarterfinal, the Hurricanes are hot on their heels and could pip them for the No.1 position.
Hurricanes fans will be hoping for a strong finish to the season, with their team able to finish anywhere from first to eighth.
The good news is they will definitely be in action come quarterfinals, the even better news is that three wins on the trot could secure top spot.
The Highlanders and Chiefs – who currently hold wild card spots heading into the business end of the season – both need to secure victories in the closing rounds, with the Rebels and Jaguares hot on their tails.
There could not be a better setting the\an the Fijian capital for their thriller.
The Lions are also in the power seat in the South African conference, leading the Jaguares by six points (the latter with a game in hand) and the Sharks by 12 points (also with a game in hand).
It is stating the obvious to suggest only victory will suffice for all three.
Quarterfinals based on the current placings:
* The Crusaders would host the Rebels in Christchurch
* The Highlanders would fly to Wellington to take on the Hurricanes
* The Lions would meet the Jaguares in Johannesburg
* The Waratahs would battle the Chiefs in Sydney
Tie-breakers (if teams are tied on competition points):
a) Most wins from all matches
b) Greatest points-difference
c) Most tries from all matches
d) Greatest tries-difference
e) Coin toss
We take a look at Saturday’s matches!
Saturday, June 30:
Highlanders v Chiefs
(ANZ Stadium, Suva – Kick-off: 19.35; 19.35 NZ time; 07.35 GMT)
This was meant to be a home game for the Highlanders. To give up that privilege is a noble gesture – especially given the importance of the fixture.
The Highlanders travelled to Fiji on Thursday and only return from Fiji late on Sunday.
Then they start their build-up fir another crunch all-New Zealand derby with the Crusaders the following Friday in Christchurch.
These two matches will be critical for the Highlanders’ play-off chances.
The side plays its final regular-season game against the Rebels in Dunedin.
The Highlanders are on 40 points, five points away from the Hurricanes, who are fourth on the standings.
The Chiefs are sixth, on 37 points.
Highlanders coach Aaron Mauger was not fazed by playing in Fiji.
”To be a consistent team we have to be able to perform at any time, in any conditions, anywhere,” he told the Otago Daily Times.
”This is a great opportunity; the team is focused on delivering a good performance for our supporters and the rugby public of Fiji.”
The Chiefs received some timely good news with the return of Canadian star Tyler Ardron – who has overcome the concussion symptoms that kept him out of the previous game.
The Chiefs are still without the services of All Black superstar Brodie Retallick, sidelined with a pectoral muscle tear he picked up in the team’s final match before the international break – against the Crusaders in Hamilton on June 2.
Chiefs assistant coach Tabai Matson said this is an important game in the grand scheme.
“We’re making sure we have all hands on deck to get our campaign restarted and going in the right direction,” Matson told the Waikato Times.
The Chiefs will be in familiar surroundings, having taken games against the Crusaders to Suva for the past two years.
Matson himself is Fijian-born and played two Tests for them, while fellow assistant coach Neil Barnes is the country’s forwards coach.
“We feel like they’re supporting us,” Matson said of the public feel in Suva.
“I think it’s because of what a great job the Chiefs have done the previous years.
“There is a lot of Highlanders signage floating around the town, but hopefully it’ll be taken down by some Chiefs supporters hours.”
Recent results:
2018: Chiefs won 27-22, Hamilton
2017: Chiefs won 24-15, Dunedin
2016: Highlanders won 25-15, Dunedin
2016: Highlanders won 26-13, Hamilton
2015: Highlanders won 24-14, Dunedin (quarterfinal)
2015: Highlanders won 36-9, Dunedin
2015: Highlanders won 20-17, Hamilton
Prediction: The Chiefs have won their last two games against the Highlanders, though they had lost six games on the bounce against them prior to that set. The Highlanders have won four of their last five games at home against the Chiefs, with three of those four wins coming after having trailed at half-time. The Highlanders have won 10 of their last 12 New Zealand derbies on home turf, including their last four in succession. The Highlanders have endured the highest defensive workload of any team this season, making a competition-high 146 tackles per game this season. Chiefs’ Solomona Alaimalo has gained the most metres (1,109) and clean breaks (36) of any player so far this season. This is a tough call to make, as both teams will be desperate and have the same motivation. Maybe the Chiefs will have ‘home ground’ advantage and will sneak the game by one score – three points.
Teams:
Highlanders: 15 Ben Smith (co-captain), 14 Waisake Naholo, 13 Rob Thompson, 12 Teihorangi Walden, 11 Tevita Li, 10 Lima Sopoaga, 9 Aaron Smith, 8 Luke Whitelock, 7 Dillon Hunt, 6 Elliot Dixon, 5 Tom Franklin, 4 Jackson Hemopo, 3 Siate Tokolahi, 2 Ash Dixon (co-captain), 1 Daniel Lienert-Brown.
Replacements: 16 Liam Coltman, 17 Aki Seiuli, 18 Tyrel Lomax, 19 Alex Ainley, 20 Shannon Frizell, 21 Kayne Hammington, 22 Josh Ioane, 23 Richard Buckman.
Chiefs: 15 Solomon Alaimalo, 14 Toni Pulu, 13 Anton Lienert-Brown, 12 Charlie Ngatai (co-captain), 11 Sean Wainui, 10 Damian McKenzie, 9 Brad Weber, 8 Liam Messam, 7 Sam Cane (co-captain), 6 Luke Jacobson, 5 Tyler Ardron, 4 Michael Allardice, 3 Angus Ta’avao, 2 Liam Polwart, 1 Karl Tu’inukuafe.
Replacements: 16 Samisoni Taukei’aho, 17 Sam Prattley, 18 Jeff Thwaites, 19 Jesse Parete, 20 Mitch Karpik, 21 Te Toiroa Tahuriorangi, 22 Marty McKenzie, 23 Shaun Stevenson.
Referee: Paul Williams (New Zealand)
Assistant referees: Jamie Nutbrown (New Zealand), James Doleman (New Zealand)
TMO: Shane McDermott (New Zealand)
Brumbies v Hurricanes
(GIO Stadium, Canberra – Kick-off: 19.45; 21.45 NZ time; 09.45 GMT)
The Brumbies, who are a statistical long shot at making the play-offs, haven’t beaten a New Zealand side since they toppled the Hurricanes in the first game of the 2016 campaign.
They also lost two matches against the Wellington side last year.
Effectively they are playing for pride only.
“It’s not too much about the Hurricanes this week,” injured co-captain Sam Carter told the Canberra Times.
“You only get a limited amount of opportunities against them, so we need to make sure we take them,” Carter added.
“You don’t get many opportunities against the Hurricanes or Kiwi teams.
“We have to make sure we’re right on our game.
“There will be chances, we just have to be good enough to take them.
“The last time we played the Hurricanes at home, we went down in a quarterfinal. So you don’t need extra motivation for this one.”
Brumbies coach Dan McKellar made four changes to the pack – which will see hooker Folau Fainga’a, prop Ben Alexander, lock Rory Arnold and flank Tom Cusack all return to the starting XV.
The Hurricanes were 35-16 winners in last year’s quarterfinal against the Brumbies in Canberra, but haven’t always excelled there.
As recently as 2016 the Brumbies dismantled the Hurricanes 52-10 in Canberra.
“It’s always been a difficult place to play and it was minus-6 degrees there last night and it’s just on the border of being high-altitude, so it’s a tough place to play,” Hurricanes coach Chris Boyd told the Dominion Post.
The Hurricanes will be hoping that their backline is firing on all cylinders.
It the Chiefs and Highlanders play to a draw in Fiji, the Hurricanes will be one step closer to a home quarterfinal.
The Chiefs, Hurricanes, and Highlanders are all in with a chance of hosting a quarterfinal.
The top finisher of these three teams will host, and the other two will likely either travel to Wellington or Sydney/Melbourne.
Just three points separates the Jaguares, Chiefs, Waratahs and Rebels on the table with three games to play.
This could present several possibilities for who hosts and who travels.
Recent results:
2017: Hurricanes won 35-16, Canberra (quarterfinal)
2017: Hurricanes won 56-21, Napier
2016: Brumbies won 52-10, Canberra
2015: Hurricanes won 29-9, Wellington (semifinal)
2014: Brumbies won 29-21, Wellington
Prediction: The last time these sides met in the regular season the Hurricanes picked up a 56-21 victory, snapping a five-game losing streak in such fixtures against the Brumbies. The Brumbies will be hunting for back-to-back wins at home for the first time since 2016 after snaring a 41-31 win against the Sunwolves in their most recent fixture as hosts. The Hurricanes have won their first game back after the June Test window in each of their last three attempts, including two wins after trailing at half-time. The Hurricanes boast a points differential of +55 in the opening quarter of games this season, better than any other team in the competition. Thomas Banks has crossed for four tries in his last three appearances for the Brumbies; however, he is yet to score in five games against New Zealand opposition. The Brumbies will be competitive for long periods in the game, but the Hurricanes have too much class and should win by 12 points.
Teams:
Brumbies: 15 Tom Banks, 14 Henry Speight, 13 Tevita Kuridrani, 12 Kyle Godwin, 11 Andy Muirhead, 10 Christian Lealiifano, 9 Joe Powell, 8 Isi Naisarani, 7 David Pocock, 6 Tom Cusack, 5 Blake Enever, 4 Rory Arnold, 3 Ben Alexander, 2 Folau Fainga’a, 1 Scott Sio.
Replacements: 16 Connal McInerney, 17 Nic Mayhew, 18 Les Leuluaialii-Makin, 19 Richie Arnold, 20 Darcy Swain, 21 Matt Lucas, 22 Wharenui Hawera, 23 Lausii Taliauli.
Hurricanes: 15 Nehe Milner-Skudder, 14 Julian Savea, 13 Jordie Barrett, 12 Ngani Laumape, 11 Ben Lam, 10 Jackson Garden-Bachop, 9 Thomas Perenara (captain), 8 Gareth Evans, 7 Sam Henwood, 6 Reed Prinsep, 5 Sam Lousi, 4 Michael Fatialofa, 3 Jeff Toomaga-Allen, 2 Ricky Riccitelli, 1 Toby Smith.
Replacements: 16 James O’Reilly, 17 Chris Eves, 18 Marcel Renata, 19 Isaia Walker-Leawere, 20 Blade Thomson, 21 Jamie Booth, 22 Ihaia West, 23 Wes Goosen.
Referee: Nick Briant (New Zealand)
Assistant referees: William Houston (Australia), James Leckie (Australia)
TMO: Ian Smith (Australia)
Sunwolves v Bulls
(National Stadium, Singapore – Kick-off: 19.55; 13.55 SA time; 11.55 GMT)
The Bulls may be out of the running for a play-off spot, but they will have plenty of motivation.
They will be looking for revenge against the resurgent Sunwolves, following their defeat last year to the Japanese side – the first South African team to lose against the Sunwolves.
“We had a good [June] break, but also had some time together to sort out elements in our play that lacked consistency,” Bulls coach John Mitchell said.
“The Sunwolves are always dangerous, especially on home turf, and we will have to be very principled in our approach and execution if we want to stay in the contest.”
Former All Black flyhalf Tony Brown has taken over the Sunwolves coaching reins – from fellow All Black Jamie Joseph – until the end of the season.
Joseph has returned to New Zealand for a back operation.
Brown is also assistant to Joseph with Japan, as attack coach.
“Although it was a very difficult decision to be unable to accompany the last three games of the season, it is necessary to make the best choice to achieve the goal of Japanese rugby,” Joseph said.
“I’m confident the Sunwolves will continue to evolve under the talented coach Tony Brown and support staff. I want to see their evolution tightly until the end of the 2018 season.”
Springbok flyhalf Handré Pollard captains the Bulls against the Sunwolves, in the injury-enforced absence of regular skipper Burger Odendaal. A
part from their returning Springboks, the Pretoria side also welcome back Jamba Ulengo, who gets a first start this year at wing, Hanro Liebenberg at No.8 and Jannes Kirsten, who is due for his first appearance this year at flank.
The Sunwolves, who will be captained by Willie Britz, have included three former Bulls players in their matchday squad – Gerhard van den Heever (fullback), Grant Hattingh (reserve lock) and Hencus van Wyk (prop).
Previous results:
2017: Sunwolves won 21-20, Tokyo
2017: Bulls won 34-21, Pretoria
2016: Bulls won 50-3, Pretoria
2016: Bulls won 30-27, Singapore
Prediction: The Sunwolves earned a 21-20 home win in their last game against the Bulls, and were beaten by just three points in their previous home game against them. The Sunwolves have won their last two games on home turf, including a come-from-behind victory in Round 14 against the Stormers. The Bulls have lost their last 10 games on the bounce outside South Africa, scoring just 15 points per game across that time. The Bulls boast a line-out success rate of 91% this campaign, better than any other team in the competition. Semisi Masirewa beat a joint round-high 10 defenders in Round 16, the second most ever by a Sunwolves player in a Super Rugby game. It won’t be easy, but the Bulls should win – by eight points.
Teams:
Sunwolves: 15 Gerhard van den Heever, 14 Semisi Masirewa, 13 Jason Emery, 12 Michael Little, 11 Akihito Yamada, 10 Hayden Parker, 9 Keisuke Uchida, 8 Yoshitaka Tokunaga, 7 Shunsuke Nunomaki, 6 Willem Britz (captain), 5 Uwe Helu, 4 James Moore, 3 Takuma Asahara, 2 Jaba Bregvadze, 1 Craig Millar.
Replacements: 16 Yusuke Niwai, 17 Shintaro Ishihara, 18 Hencus van Wyk, 19 Grant Hattingh, 20 Rahboni Warren Vosayako, 21 Fumiaki Tanaka, 22 Rikiya Matsuda, 23 Ryoto Nakamura.
Bulls: 15 Warrick Gelant, 14 Jamba Ulengo, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Johnny Kotze, 11 Divan Rossouw, 10 Handre Pollard (captain), 9 Embrose Papier, 8 Hanro Liebenberg, 7 Jannes Kirsten, 6 Marco van Staden, 5 Rudolph Snyman, 4 Jason Jenkins, 3 Conraad van Vuuren, 2 Jaco Visagie, 1 Pierre Schoeman.
Replacements: 16 Edgar Marutlulle, 17 Simphiwe Matanzima, 18 Morné Smith, 19 Thembelani Bholi, 20 Nic de Jager, 21 Andre Warner, 22 Manie Libbok, 23 Dries Swanepoel.
Referee: Ben O’Keeffe (New Zealand)
Assistant referees: Shuhei Kubo (Japan), Tasuku Kawahara (Japan)
TMO: Minoru Fuji (Japan)
Sharks v Lions
(Kings Park, Durban – Kick-off: 17.15; 15.15 GMT)
There is no need for any hype around this fixture. Both teams ‘must’ win.
The Lions may have a six-point lead on the second-placed Jaguares (in the South African conference) and 12 points on the Sharks.
However, defeat will have dire consequences for either side.
Lions coach Swys de Bruin spoke of a “good feeling” in the camp, as the Springboks returned from the June internationals and a few others are back from injury.
“We can’t afford to slip now,” De Bruin said.
De Bruin said he expects the Sharks to have the same brutal approach to the game as they have displayed in previous encounters with the Lions.
“With the Du Preez brothers [Daniel and Jean-Luc], along with the likes of Tank [Thomas du Toit], Akker [Armand van der Merwe} and Beast [Tendai Mtawarira], the bring it physically.
“They have strong backs as well – like Robert [du Preez, at flyhalf], [centre] Andre [Esterhuizen] and [fellow midfielder Lukhanyo] Am].
They are big guys and the best way for us to get to [counter] those big guys to ensure we win [the battle] up front.”
As expected, Sharks coach Robert du Preez included all his returning Springboks.
Lions captain Warren Whiteley, star hooker Malcolm Marx and strong running wing Ruan Combrinck, as well as all of the Highvelders’ Springboks that did international duty in June, are all included in an experienced starting line-up.
Whiteley returns from a lengthy lay-off with a troublesome knee while Marx – who will run out for his 50th match at this level – has recovered from his hamstring strain.
Sharks assistant coach Braam van Straaten said the returning Springboks have slotted in seamlessly after the June break.
“There are a number of similarities in the way we play between the Sharks and Springbok teams, we are quite direct and Springbok defence coach Jacques Nienaber has spent time here, so there is some synergy,” Van Straaten said.
“And the boys who haven’t played for some time will be nice and fresh and raring to go.
“The key during the June break has been to keep those players fresh and get lots of work done and the past few weeks have been good in that regard. Last Saturday some of the players got the opportunity to play in the Super Sport Rugby Challenge which was also really good for us.
“What’s been wonderful is the process that’s in place that got these players to perform to a level that got them selected for the Springbok team.
“We haven’t had the results we would have liked, there’s been some inconsistency, as a group, but it is something that we are addressing to see how we can be better, week in and week out. It’s a tough competition, but we are really happy to have given those players the opportunity to play at a higher level. Not only is it a personal accolade for them, but they bring a huge amount of energy back into the camp when they return.”
Recent results:
2018: Lions won 26-19, Johannesburg
2017: Lions won 23-21, Johannesburg (quarterfinal)
2017: Lions 27-10, Durban
2017: Lions won 34-29, Johannesburg
2016: Lions won 37-10, Johannesburg
2016: Lions won 24-9, Durban
Prediction: The Lions have won their last seven games on the bounce against the Sharks, three of which came after trailing at half-time. The Sharks have lost just one of their last six games on home turf, including wins in each of their last three. The Lions are undefeated in their last 21 South African derbies; their last derby loss was a 33-35 defeat at the hands of the Bulls in Round 12, 2015. The Sharks (13) have made the most offloads per game this season, while the Lions (six) have made the fewest. The Lions’ Elton Jantjies (1,120) has played more minutes than any other player this campaign, while he has kicked the third most goals in 2018 (55). In Durban the Sharks will be a tall order for the Lions, but with their all-action, expansive game the Johannesburg-based franchise will always be in the game. The Lions to sneak a late winner – by five points.
Teams:
Sharks: 15 Curwin Bosch, 14 Sibusiso Nkosi, 13 Lukhanyo Am, 12 Andre Esterhuizen, 11 Makazole Mapimpi, 10 Robert du Preez, 9 Cameron Wright, 8 Daniel du Preez, 7 Jean-Luc du Preez, 6 Philip van der Walt, 5 Ruan Botha (captain), 4 Tyler Paul, 3 Thomas du Toit, 2 Armand van der Merwe, 1 Tendai Mtawarira.
Replacements: 16 Mahlatse Ralepelle, 17 Juan Schoeman, 18 Ross Geldenhuys, 19 Hyron Andrews, 20 Jacques Vermeulen, 21 Louis Schreuder, 22 Marius Louw, 23 Lwazi Mvovo.
Lions: 15 Andries Coetzee, 14 Ruan Combrink, 13 Lionel Mapoe, 12 Harold Vorster, 11 Aphiwe Dyantyi, 10 Elton Jantjies, 9 Ross Cronje, 8 Warren Whiteley (captain), 7 Cyle Brink, 6 Albertus Smith, 5 Francois Mostert, 4 Marvin Orie, 3 Ruan Dreyer, 2 Malcolm Marx, 1 Dylan Smith.
Replacements: 16 Corné Fourie, 17 Jacques van Rooyen, 18 Johannes Jonker, 19 Lourens Erasmus, 20 Hacjivah Dayimani, 21 Marnus Schoeman, 22 Nicholas Groom, 23 Courtnall Skosan.
Referee: Jaco Peyper (South Africa)
Assistant referees: AJ Jacobs (South Africa), Stuart Berry (South Africa)
TMO: Marius Jonker (South Africa)
Jaguares v Stormers
(Estadio Jose Amalfitani, Buenos Aires – Kick-off: 14.40; 19.40 SA time; 17.40 GMT)
The Jaguares and Los Pumas (Argentina national team) are essentially the same outfit.
However, there are two significant changes.
The Los Pumas coach was Daniel Hourcade, until he was worked out by the players. The captain was Agustin Creevy.
The attitude and discipline were poor.
Mario Ledesma is the Jaguares coach and Pablo Matera the captain.
Their are an enthusiastic outfit and their discipline exemplary.
Stormers coach Robbie Fleck said that his team is determined to make an impression in Buenos Aires.
“We know that it will be a big challenge here in Argentina, but both the players and management are looking forward to it,” Fleck said.
“We want to show what we are capable of under pressure away from home and will be going all-out to come away with a win,” he added.
Jaguares replacement prop Santiago Medrano, who made his debut for Argentina in June, said they will need to “win the point of contact”.
“The Stormers is a very physical team that base their game on winning and prevailing in that contact.”
Although the Jaguares have never beaten the Stormers, they believe being on home ground will give them a real chance.
Previous results:
2018: Stormers won 28-20, Cape Town
2017: Stormers won 32-25, Cape Town
2016: Stormers won 13-8, Buenos Aires
Prediction: The Stormers have won each of their previous three games against the Jaguares, though none by a margin of more than eight points. The Jaguares have won their last six Super Rugby games on the bounce, a streak twice as long as their previous best in the competition. The Stormers have won just two of their last 13 games away from home, and are winless on the road so far in 2018. The Jaguares have scored 10 tries after winning possession via a turnover this season, only the Chiefs (11) have scored more tries via this method. The Stormers’ Siyamthanda Kolisi has made 13 clean breaks this campaign, the equal most of any forward in the competition alongside Kwagga Smith and Akira Ioane. The Stormers have been horrendous on the road this year and the Jaguares should win by 15 points.
Teams:
Jaguares: 15 Emiliano Boffelli, 14 Bautista Delguy, 13 Matias Orlando, 12 Jeronimo De La Fuente Jeronimo, 11 Ramiro Moyano, 10 Nicolas Sanchez, 9 Gonzalo Bertranou, 8 Javier Ortega Desio, 7 Tomas Lezana, 6 Pablo Matera (captain), 5 Tomas Lavanini, 4 Guido Petti, 3 Nahuel Tetaz Chaparro, 2 Agustin Creevy, 1 Santiago Garcia Botta.
Replacements: 16 Diego Fortuny, 17 Javier Manuel Diaz, 18 Santiago Medrano, 19 Matias Alemanno, 20 Juan Manuel Leguizamon, 21 Martin Landajo, 22 Joaquin Diaz Bonila, 23 Matias Moroni.
Stormers: 15 Dillyn Leyds, 14 Craig Barry, 13 Johannes Engelbrecht, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Raymond Rhule, 10 Jean-Luc du Plessis, 9 Dewaldt Duvenage, 8 Sikhumbuzo Notshe, 7 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 6 Siyamthanda Kolisi (captain), 5 Jan de Klerk, 4 Cobus Wiese, 3 Wilco Louw, 2 Mbongeni Mbonambi, 1 Steven Kitshoff.
Replacements: 16 Ramone Samuels, 17 Jacobus Janse van Rensburg, 18 Frans Malherbe, 19 Salmaan Moerat, 20 Nizaam Carr, 21 Kobus van Dyk, 22 Justin Phillips, 23 EW Viljoen.
Referee: Angus Gardner (Australia)
Assistant referees: Pablo Deluca (Argentina), José Covasi (Argentina)
TMO: Santiago Borsani (Argentina)
Compiled by Jan de Koning
@king365ed
@rugby365com
* Statistics provided by Opta Sports
