Preview: Super Rugby, Round Five, Part One
BASEMENT BATTLE: Friday’s two matches involve four desperate teams – all based between 10th and 15th on the standings.
The Highlanders (12th) host the Rebels (11th) – with the hosts looking for their first home win of the season and the visitors looking for their first away win.
It is even more desperate in the other Friday match – where the bottom-placed Waratahs will look to record their first win of the season against a Lions team (10th place) hoping to start their four-match Australasian tour with a first away win.
All four teams know they can’t afford to drop any more points if they hope to retain their fading dreams of a play-off spot.
We look at Friday’s matches!
Friday, February 28:
Highlanders v Rebels
(Forsyth Barr Stadium, Dunedin – Kick-off: 19.05; 17.05 Melbourne time; 06.05 GMT)
The Highlanders, despite their one-point (23-22) squeaker over the Brumbies in Canberra, have not convinced the critics that they can be genuine play-off challengers this season.
However, assistant coach Tony Brown believes the Dunedin-based franchise is a lot closer to the pace than their lowly position suggests.
Brown suggested ‘key moments’ is what has cost them so far this season.
“It’s just creating awareness for our guys, the pictures that they’re seeing,” Brown told a media briefing at the team’s training base this week.
“It is just about executing in those moments.
“Against the Crusaders [a 13-33 loss in Christchurch last week] we did some really good things.
“We’re not far away from being really clinical on attack.”
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Rebels defence coach Kevin Foote said his team is also still smarting from the 12-point (24-36) loss to the Sharks last week, which came after a rousing breakthrough win over the Waratahs.
He said the Brumbies’ last round win over the Chiefs in Hamilton had given them the confidence of upsetting the Highlanders to post a rare win on NZ soil.
“The Brumbies were awesome,” Foote said.
“They had some setbacks and we did too with some late injuries.
“However, the Brumbies showed some real grit to go over there and do a job.
“We want to go to Dunedin and keep flying the flag for Australian rugby.”
Head to head
Prediction: The Highlanders have won six of their eight games against the Rebels in Super Rugby, including each of their four home games. They did lose their most recent encounter with the Melbourne franchise though, almost exactly a year ago. The Highlanders lost their last home game (v Sharks), however, they’ve not lost back to back Super Rugby games on home soil since the opening two rounds of the 2017 campaign (v Chiefs & Crusaders). The Highlanders have won their last 12 Super Rugby games when hosting Australian teams, their last such defeat coming in March 2014 against the Force. The Rebels have made 199 carries across the gainline in Super Rugby this season, more than any other side while their 58 percent gainline success rate is the best of any team this campaign. The Rebels’ Isi Naisarani has made 53 carries this season, more than any other player, while his tally of 19 defenders beaten is the most of any forward and the joint fourth-most overall. This is tough to call, especially since neither side has shown any consistency. We are going with the home ground advantage – the Highlanders to win by nine points.
Teams
Highlanders: 15 Michael Collins, 14 Josh McKay, 13 Rob Thompson, 12 Josh Ioane, 11 Jona Nareki, 10 Mitch Hunt, 9 Aaron Smith, 8 Marino Mikaele Tu’u, 7 James Lentjes (captain), 6 Teariki Ben-Nicholas, 5 Jack Whetton, 4 Jesse Parete, 3 Siate Tokolahi, 2 Ash Dixon, 1 Daniel Lienert-Brown.
Replacements: 16 Liam Coltman, 17 Ayden Johnstone, 18 Jeff Thwaites, 19 Manaaki Selby-Rickit, 20 Dillon Hunt, 21 Kayne Hammington, 22 Teihorangi Walden, 23 Scott Gregory
Rebels: 15 Dane Haylett-Petty (captain), 14 Andrew Kellaway, 13 Tom English, 12 Billy Meakes, 11 Marika Koroibete, 10 Matt Toomua, 9 Ryan Louwrens, 8 Isi Naisarani, 7 Richard Hardwick, 6 Angus Cottrell, 5 Matt Philip, 4 Gideon Koegelenberg, 3 Jermaine Ainsley, 2 Anaru Rangi, 1 Matt Gibbon.
Replacements: 16 Jordan Uelese, 17 Cameron Orr, 18 Cabous Eloff, 19 Ross Haylett-Petty, 20 Rob Leota, 21 Frank Lomani, 22 Michael Wells, 23 Andrew Deegan.
Referee: Paul Williams (New Zealand)
Assistant referees: James Doleman (New Zealand), James Munro (New Zealand)
TMO: Chris Hart (New Zealand)
Waratahs v Lions
(Western Sydney Stadium, Parramatta – Kick-off: 19.15; 10.15 SA time; 08.15 GMT)
Waratahs coach Rob Penney has questioned his winless team’s defensive work ahead of a clash against a team renowned for their attacking mindset.
Penney admitted more setbacks for a team that has already recorded the franchise’s worst start in history might force him to start choosing more experienced players.
“I’ve got a side of me that is nurturing, that has a degree of empathy for the young blokes and the position that they are in, but that’s not bottomless,” the Tahs mentor said.
“There will be a point if things don’t improve that changes will need to be made,” said Penney, aware his side have already conceded 14 tries and 99 points – a match average of 16-33.
While poor ball retention and decision making has hurt them, Penney said there were moments in games where he questioned his team’s work ethic and their commitment to each other.
“There are times when the talentless tasks of working hard and committing yourself totally to whatever you’re involved in at the time isn’t happening,” Penny said.
“That’s reflected in being opened up a few times in defence, and that’s caused a large degree of frustration on both sides, players and management
“You can make a whole lot of excuses for those things but if you don’t work really hard and put your body in a position to be able to make a defensive effort, or carry the ball hard and look after the pill, then there’s a whole lot of guys out in franchise land that could do that effectively and with passion,” Penney warned.
“They are the sort of tasks that we’re really disappointed that we’re not able to achieve more consistently. There’s some pretty basic stuff around our defence that we’ve just got to get right.”
Lions coach Ivan van Rooyen said the Tahs will be “extremely desperate” to end their losing streak.
He said complacency won’t be an issue for his team, expecting a “physical onslaught” from a team with several seasoned internationals – like Kurtley Beale, Karmichael Hunt, Michael Hooper and Rob Simmons.
“We are under no illusion that it will be a tough contest, for 80 minutes,” Van Rooyen said.
Head to head
Prediction: The Waratahs have lost their last five Super Rugby games against the Lions. They had won six in a row against the Johannesburg franchise prior to that run. The Waratahs have lost their last five games, their longest winless run in Super Rugby since losing nine in a row across the 2012 and 2013 campaigns. The Lions have conceded 24 penalties so far this Super Rugby campaign, fewer than any other side, while the Waratahs have conceded the second-fewest after four rounds (27). The Lions have spent an average of 18 minutes and eight seconds per game in possession of the ball this season, longer than any other side, while only the Crusaders (122) have averaged more carries than the side from Johannesburg (119). Lions scrum half Morné van den Berg has a gainline success rate of 82 percent, the best rate of any player to make 10+ carries this campaign. Two desperate teams will make for an intriguing and entertaining encounter. Home ground advantage count for plenty – with the Waratahs to score a late winner and sneak past the Lions by five points.
Teams
Waratahs: 15 Kurtley Beale, 14 Mark Nawaqanitawase, 13 Alex Newsome, 12 Karmichael Hunt, 11 Jack Maddocks, 10 Will Harrison, 9 Jake Gordon, 8 Jack Dempsey, 7 Michael Hooper, 6 Lachlan Swinton, 5 Rob Simmons (captain), 4 Tom Staniforth, 3 Harry Johnson-Holmes, 2 Robbie Abel, 1 Angus Bell.
Replacements: 16 Damien Fitzpatrick, 17 Tom Robertson, 18 Tetera Faulkner, 19 Ryan McCauley, 20 Jed Holloway, 21 Mitch Short, 22 Lalakai Foketi, 23 James Ramm.
Lions: 15 Andries Coetzee, 14 Tyrone Green, 13 Manuel Rass, 12 Daniel Kriel, 11 Jamba Ulengo, 10 Elton Jantjies (captain), 9 Andre Warner, 8 Len Massyn, Vincent Tshituka, 6 Marnus Schoeman, 5 Marvin Orie, 4 Ruben Schoeman, 3 Carlu Sadie, 2 Jan-Henning Campher, 1 Dylan Smith.
Replacements: 16 Pieter Jansen, 17 Sithembiso Sithole, 18 Frans Van Wyk, 19 Willem Alberts, 20 Wilhelm van der Sluys, 21 Hacjivah Dayimani, 22 Morné van den Berg, 23 Wandisile Simelane.
Referee: Angus Gardner (Australia)
Assistant referees: Jordan Way (Australia), James Quinn (Australia)
TMO: Ian Smith (Australia)
Compiled by Jan de Koning; with additional reporting by AAP
* Stats provided by Opta Sports
