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Preview: Super Rugby - Round One, Part Two

Preview: Super Rugby - Round One, Part Two

WORLD CUP SUB-PLOT: The season gets underway against the backdrop of a much bigger event looming large later in the year.

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In fact, Springbok lock Lodewyk de Jager suggested there will be “more brutal than usual” clashes, as the tournament becomes a 21-week trial for the World Cup.

As the competition plays out through to the Final on July 6, bubbling beneath the surface is an intriguing sub-plot.

Coaches must weigh the pressure to manage the workload of likely World Cup players.

The local derbies in each conference are typically ferocious affairs, but De Jager is relishing the fact they will be tougher than ever this year.

“They will be more brutal than usual in the lead-up to the World Cup,” De Jager, the Bulls captain, said.

“It will be like World Cup trials this season. I’m looking forward to it.”

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The Crusaders, who play the Blues on Saturday, are bidding for a third successive title under coach Scott Robertson, who has an impressive 34-3 record from two years with the All Blacks-laden side.

In 23 years of Super Rugby, the Crusaders have been victorious nine times and they are aiming for 10 with most of last year’s squad, with the notable absentee being the retired Wyatt Crockett.

But a need to ease the workload on their galaxy of stars – Kieran Read and Sam Whitelock will miss the first month – is one reason why the Crusaders have only once won the championship in a World Cup year, and that was back in 1999.

The Blues have long been under-achievers and have pinned their hopes this year on replacing coach Tana Umaga with former long-serving Crusader Leon MacDonald, and uniting blockbuster midfield pair Sonny Bill Williams and 36-year-old Ma’a Nonu – who has returned after three years in France.

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The Hurricanes need to plug the gaps left by Brad Shields and Julian Savea.

The Lions, runners-up in the last three seasons, are again seen as the biggest threat from South Africa despite forwards Jacques van Rooyen, Ruan Dreyer, Jaco Kriel and Franco Mostert heading to Europe.

Sharks coach Robert du Preez summed up his frustrations after several modest seasons by saying that with the talent at his disposal “we are running out of excuses. We have to succeed this year”.

The Bulls have bolstered by two old hands – 32-year-old back row forward Duane Vermeulen and hooker Schalk Brits, 37.

The Waratahs rate as Australia’s brightest hope, with Ashley Adam-Cooper and Karmichael Hunt joining Bernard Foley, Kurtley Beale and Israel Folau in a first-class backline.

The Jaguares, the Argentina Pumas under another name, have Gonzalo Quesada as the new coach and a new captain in Jeronimo de la Fuente, but have lost backline general Nicolas Sanchez to Stade Francais.

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We look at all the Saturday matches!

Saturday, February 16:

Blues v Crusaders
(Eden Park, Auckland – Kick-off: 19.35; 06.35 GMT)

There was much pre-season hype around the Blues and Saturday’s season-opener will be a great indication if they are indeed genuine contenders … or, yet again, pretenders.

They are up against a Crusaders team looking to make it nine consecutive wins over the Blues.

Intriguing enough the Blues have earned only one competition point from their last three home games against the defending champions.

The last time the Blues beat the Crusaders at Eden Park was in February 2014.

Much of the enthusiasm around the Blues is the result of former Crusaders stalwart Leon MacDonald – the new coach of the Auckland-based franchise.

Then there is the return of All Black veteran Ma’a Nonu, back from a stint in France.

“You guys know Ma’a reasonably well,” MacDonald said in an interview in the New Zealand Herald.

“He’s a smart guy,” the coach said about the 36-year-old All Black midfielder, adding: “He’s been around for a long time.

“He doesn’t need pep talks.

“Probably the most impressive thing with Ma’a is that he’s craving feedback and wants to make sure he’s doing well and still learning.

“He’ll probably be as nervous as the guys making their debuts in the weekend.

“It’s a big game for him and obviously there are a lot of eyes on him.

“I know he’ll be pretty excited about playing in New Zealand again and doing himself proud.”

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Recent results:

2018: Crusaders won 54-17, Christchurch
2018: Crusaders won 32-24, Auckland
2017: Crusaders won 33-24, Christchurch
2016: Crusaders won 26-21, Auckland
2016: Crusaders won 28-13, Christchurch

Prediction: The Crusaders have won their last eight games on the bounce against the Blues, restricting the Auckland side to fewer than 20 points on five occasions in that time. The Blues have earned just one competition point from their last three home games against the Crusaders; their last home victory against the Christchurch side coming in February 2014. The Blues ran out to a 39-16 victory over the Reds in their final home fixture of the 2018 campaign and will now be searching for back-to-back home victories for the first time since April 2017. No team scored as many tries in the opening 20 minutes of the match last season as the Crusaders (24) – the Blues managed just seven tries in this period, the fewest of any team. Akira Ioane (Blues) scored eight tries last season, the second-most of any forward behind only Malcolm Marx (12).

blues vs crusaders prediction
Photo: Rugby Pass Index

Teams:

Blues: 15 Michael Collins, 14 Melani Nanai, 13 Ma’a Nonu, 12 Thomas Faiane, 11 Rieko Ioane, 10 Otere Black, 9 Jonathan Ruru, 8 Akira Ioane, 7 Dalton Papalii, 6 Tom Robinson, 5 Josh Goodhue, 4 Patrick Tuipulotu (captain), 3 Sione Mafileo, 2 James Parsons, 1 Alex Hodgman.
Replacements: 16 Matt Moulds, 17 Karl Tu’inukuafe, 18 Ofa Tu’ungafasi, 19 Gerard Cowley-Tuioti, 20 Matt Matich, 21 Augustine Pulu, 22 Harry Plummer, 23 Sonny Bill Williams.

Crusaders: 15 David Havili, 14 Manasa Mataele, 13 Braydon Ennor, 12 Ryan Crotty, 11 George Bridge, 10 Richie Mo’unga, 9 Bryn Hall, 8 Whetukamokamo Douglas, 7 Matt Todd (captain), 6 Jordan Taufua, 5 Quinten Strange, 4 Scott Barrett, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Andrew Makalio, 1 Joe Moody.
Replacements: 16 Ben Funnell, 17 Tim Perry, 18 Michael Alaalatoa, 19 Luke Romano, 20 Tom Sanders, 21 Mitchell Drummond, 22 Mitchell Hunt, 23 Will Jordan.

Referee: Nick Briant (New Zealand)
Assistant referees: Federico Anselmi (Argentina), Dan Waenga (New Zealand)
TMO: Ben Skeen (New Zealand)

Waratahs v Hurricanes
(Brookvale Oval, Sydney – Kick-off: 19.45; 21.45 NZ time; 08.45 GMT)

The Waratahs, the best of the Australian sides in 2018, spoke about “experience” as the key to their season-opening encounter with the dangerous Hurricanes.

The Tahs were Australia’s only representatives in the play-offs last year and beat the Highlanders 30-23 in Sydney in the first knockout round – before going down 26-44 to the Lions in a semifinal in Johannesburg.

Waratahs coach Daryl Gibson signalled his intent when he named Karmichael Hunt and Adam Ashley-Cooper in a midfield that has a look of brutality about it.

“It brings a lot of experience and a lot of defensive quality,” Gibson said.

Veteran prop Sekope Kepu also pointed to the experience in the team as a reason why they can go further than last year.

“Definitely [we can repeat 2014],” Kepu told the Sydney Morning Herald in an interview.

“The over-28s, as we put it the other day, there’s a whole heap of us, there’s a lot of experience there,” Kepu added.

“We’ve got Adam Ashley-Cooper to come back, Karmichael has been added to the group, there’s a wealth of experience just there, not to mention the guys that are already there.

“I think we have a good balance of youth and older guys.

“It’s going to be a hell of a year but a whole-of-squad mentality that we [will] go through it with.”

The Hurricanes were the second best team in 2018, but lost to the Crusaders in the semifinals.

However, it was their form away from home that seemed to trip them up. They lost five of their eight games on the road.

The Canes can no longer call on the services of the likes of Brad Shields and Julian Savea and they have injury problems, with lock Sam Lousi ruled out.

Beauden Barrett is one of many All Blacks put on ice in the early rounds.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C3pRC_2fZjk

Recent results:

2017: Hurricanes won 38-28, Wellington
2016: Hurricanes won 28-17, Sydney
2015: Waratahs won 29-24, Wellington
2014: Waratahs won 39-30, Sydney
2013: Hurricanes won 41-29, Wellington

Prediction: The Hurricanes have won four of their last six games against the Waratahs, including their last two on the bounce; the last time they won more was a three-game stretch in 2005/06. The Waratahs have won their last two games at home against New Zealand opposition – both against the Highlanders – including a come-from-behind qualifying final victory in their last such fixture. The Hurricanes have won nine of their last 11 games in Australia; however, they’ll be aiming to avoid back-to-back defeats in the country for the first time since May 2014 after a 12-24 defeat to the Brumbies in their most recent fixture there. Only the Crusaders (51) conceded fewer points in the last 20 minutes of matches last season than the Hurricanes (90), while the Waratahs conceded the fourth-fewest in this period (101). No flyhalf made more clean breaks last season than the Waratahs’ Bernard Foley (19).

tahs vs canes prediction
Photo: Rugby Pass Index

Teams:

Waratahs: 15 Israel Folau, 14 Alex Newsome, 13 Adam Ashley-Cooper, 12 Karmichael Hunt, 11 Curtis Rona, 10 Bernard Foley, 9 Jake Gordon, 8 Jack Dempsey, 7 Michael Hooper, 6 Ned Hanigan, 5 Rob Simmons, 4 Jed Holloway, 3 Sekope Kepu, 2 Damien Fitzpatrick, 1 Harry Johnson-Holmes.
Replacements: 16 Tolu Latu, 17 Rory O’Connor, 18 Chris Talakai, 19 Lachlan Swinton, 20 Will Miller, 21 Mitch Short, 22 Mack Mason, 23 Cam Clark.

Hurricanes: 15 Jordie Barrett, 14 Vince Aso, 13 Matt Proctor, 12 Ngani Laumape, 11 Ben Lam, 10 Fletcher Smith, 9 Thomas Perenara (captain), 8 Gareth Evans, 7 Ardie Savea, 6 Reed Prinsep, 5 Liam Mitchell, 4 James Blackwell, 3 Jeff To’omaga-Allen, 2 Ricky Riccitelli, 1 Chris Eves.
Replacements: 16 Dane Coles, 17 Xavier Numia, 18 Ben May, 19 Isaia Walker-Leawere, 20 Du’Plessis Kirifi, 21 Finlay Christie, 22 James Marshall, 23 Wes Goosen.

Referee: Angus Gardner (Australia)
Assistant referees: Ben O’Keeffe (New Zealand), Damon Murphy (Australia)
TMO: Ian Smith (Australia)

Sunwolves v Sharks
(Singapore National Stadium – Kick-off: 18.55; 12.55 SA time; 10.55 GMT)

The Sharks, rated as one of the fancied teams for 2019, are determined to get the season off to a positive and successful start on against the lowly Sunwolves Saturday.

At least the visitors will not be at a disadvantage in the muggy conditions, as Singapore has similar weather conditions to that which plague Durban around this time of year.

Coach Robert du Preez said a judicious approach will be key.

While the Sunwolves revel in an unstructured, fast-paced game, the Sharks will not get into a high-paced, high-risk game.

“The conditions will be tough with the humidity which make rugby difficult, so we’re going to have to do the basics really well,” the coach said.

“Our set-piece will have to function, breakdown work is extremely important and we need to be really physical.

“For us, it’s about going there to win.”

Captain Louis Schreuder said they are ‘eager and keen’ to get started.

He spoke of every game being a ‘must-win’ this year, especially against the unpredictable Japanese outfit.

“I know a lot of the foreigners in their squad and they are quality players,” Schreuder said.

“I am very excited to see what we can do after winning the Currie Cup last year.

“It is important that we start well and build momentum.”

Meanwhile, two South African-born players – Gerhard van den Heever (fullback) and centre Shane Gates (centre) – have been named in the Japanese side’s starting XV.

Van den Heever is a former Bulls and Stormers player, while Gates previously played for the Southern Kings.

https://www.facebook.com/TheSharks/videos/629207037531197/

Recent results:

2018: Sharks won 50-22, Durban
2017: Sharks won 38-17, Singapore
2016: Sharks won 40-29, Durban

Prediction: The Sharks have won each of their three games against the Sunwolves thus far by an average margin of 20 points per game. The Sunwolves have won their last three games on the bounce at home, including come-from-behind victories against both the Stormers and Bulls in that time. Each of the Sharks’ last eight fixtures has been won by the home team on the day, with the Durban squad picking up four wins and four losses in that time. The Sunwolves successfully converted 89 percent of their kicks at goal into points last season, the best rate of any side in Super Rugby, with Hayden Parker landing 48/50 kicks for the Japanese outfit. Jean-Luc du Preez (Sharks), who is out injured, made 31 offloads last season, the most of any player.

sunwolves vs sharks prediction
Photo: Rugby Pass Index

Teams:

Sunwolves: 15 Gerhard van den Heever, 14 Semisi Masirewa, 13 Shane Gates, 12 Phil Burleigh, 11 Rene Ranger, 10 Hayden Parker, 9 Kaito Shigeno, 8 Rahboni Warren Vosayaco, 7 Ed Quirk, 6 Hendrik Tui, 5 James Moore, 4 Luke Thompson, 3 Asaeli Valu, 2 Jaba Bregvadze, 1 Craig Millar (captain).
Replacements: 16 Atsushi Sakate, 17 Sam Prattley, 18 Hiroshi Yamashita, 19 Awe Helu, 20 Shuhei Matsuhashi, 21 Keisuke Uchida, 22 Rikiya Matsuda, 23 Michael Little.

Sharks: 15 Aphelele Fassi, 14 Sibusiso Nkosi, 13 Lukhanyo Am, 12 Andre Esterhuizen, 11 Makazole Mapimpi, 10 Robert du Preez, 9 Louis Schreuder (captain), 8 Daniel du Preez, 7 Tyler Paul, 6 Jacques Vermeulen, 5 Ruan Botha, 4 Hyron Andrews, 3 Coenie Oosthuizen, 2 Armand van der Merwe, 1 Tendai Mtawarira.
Replacements: 16 Kerron van Vuuren, 17 Juan Schoeman, 18 Khutha Mchunu, 19 Gideon Koegelenberg, 20 Phendulani Buthelezi, 21 Cameron Wright, 22 Rhyno Smith, 23 Jeremy Ward.

Referee: Nic Berry
Assistant referees: Marius van der Westhuizen, AJ Jacobs
TMO: Minoru Fuji

Bulls v Stormers
(Loftus Versfeld, Pretoria – Kick-off: 17.15; 15.15 GMT)

Playing the underdog seems to be a favourite pastime for coaches ahead of big domestic derbies.

And they don’t come much bigger than the north-south showdown between these two arch-rivals.

Bulls coach Pote Human was happy to claim the underdog tag.

“Recent history shows how formidable the Stormers have been,” Human told a media briefing in Pretoria.

“They have won seven of their last nine games against us, so will have more than enough confidence coming here.

“That said, we did beat them here last year, so if we apply what we trained, I firmly believe we can do that again.”

For added spice, there is the inclusion of veteran Springboks Duane Vermeulen and Schalk Brits – who will make a return to Super Rugby.

The twist: They are both former Stormers stalwarts.

Stormers coach Robbie Fleck said they are focused on making a convincing start to the 2019 season.

“Our preparations have gone well, so we are really excited to see what this combination will be able to do this weekend,” Fleck said.

“We would obviously like to make a strong start to the season and will look to deliver in some of the areas we have been focused on in pre-season in order to do that.”

Bulls captain Lodewyk de Jager spoke about the need for an 80-minute effort.

“We held the lead at half-time in three of our [pre-season] matches and only won once,” De Jager said.

“It is imperative that we not only start well, but sustain our efforts for the full 80 minutes.

“There is massive excitement and expectation amongst the squad this year and we are keen to go out and play the best rugby we can,” the captain added.

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Recent results:

2018: Stormers won 29-17, Cape Town
2018: Bulls won 33-23, Pretoria
2017: Stormers won 41-33, Pretoria
2017: Stormers won 37-24, Cape Town
2016: Bulls won 17-13, Pretoria
2016: Stormers won 33-9, Cape Town

Prediction: The Stormers have won seven of their last nine games against the Bulls, earning a losing bonus point in one of their two defeats in that time. The Bulls have led at half-time in three of their last four games; however, they’ve gone on to win only once in that time. The Stormers were winless from three South African derbies played away from home during the 2018 campaign, including a 33-23 loss to the Bulls. Only the Sunwolves (89 percent) had a better goal kicking accuracy rate last season than the Bulls (84 percent), while the Stormers kicked at a conversion rate of 81 percent. Handre Pollard (Bulls) missed just eight kicks at goal last season, the fewest of any player to kick more than 50 (53/61 goals).

bulls vs stormers prediction
Photo: Rugby Pass Index

Teams:

Bulls: 15 Warrick Gelant, 14 Johnny Kotze, 13 Jessie Kriel, 12 Burger Odendaal, 11 Rosko Specman, 10 Handré Pollard, 9 Embrose Papier, 8 Duane Vermeulen, 7 Hanro Liebenberg, 6 Ruan Steenkamp, 5 Lodewyk de Jager (captain), 4 Jason Jenkins, 3 Trevor Nyakane, 2 Schalk Brits, 1 Lizo Gqoboka.
Replacements: 16 Corniel Els, 17 Simphiwe Matanzima, 18 Dayan van der Westhuizen, 19 Eli Snyman, 20 Thembelani Bholi, 21 Ivan van Zyl, 22 Manie Libbok, 23 Dylan Sage.

Stormers: 15 Dillyn Leyds, 14 JJ Engelbrecht, 13 Ruhan Nel, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 SP Marais, 10 Damian Willemse, 9 Jano Vermaak, 8 Sikhumbuzo Notshe, 7 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 6 Siya Kolisi (captain), 5 John Schickerling, 4 Salmaan Moerat, 3 Wilco Louw, 2 Bongi Mbonambi, 1 Ali Vermaak.
Replacements: 16 Siyabonga Ntubeni, 17 Corne Fourie, 18 Neethling Fouche, 19 Chris van Zyl, 20 Kobus van Dyk, 21 Herschel Jantjies, 22 Jean-Luc du Plessis, 23 Dan du Plessis.

Referee: Jaco Peyper
Assistant referees: Paul Williams, Egon Seconds
TMO: Marius Jonker

Jaguares v Lions
(Estadio Velez Sarsfield, Buenos Aires – Kick-off: 18.40; 23.40 SA time; 21.40 GMT)

Springbok No.8 Warren Whiteley will provide the experience and leadership as the Lions will need to rewrite history in Argentina.

Each of the previous seven meetings between the Jaguares and Lions was won by the home team on the day.

The Argentineans will provide a tough test at home, where they have won eight of their last 10 games against South African opposition – including their last four in a row.

Lions coach Swys de Bruin admitted it travelling to South America is fraught with danger.

“We had a strong team last year and still lost,” he said about a Jaguares outfit that is the national team in all but name.

“It is a similar line-up to the one which played against the Springboks [in the Rugby Championship last year],” the Lions coach said.

“You are basically facing the Los Pumas team.

“No doubt we will have to bring our A Game. It is a massive challenge for us.”

De Bruin said they are not going to put pressure on the young members of the squad by making the play-offs one of their pre-determined goals.

“We have a very experienced backline and a few experienced guys up front,” the coach said.

“The loss of players like Ruan Dreyer [to Gloucester], Jaco Kriel [Gloucester], Franco Mostert [Gloucester] and Jacques van Rooyen [Bath] up front means the real test will be how the forwards cope.

“We’ll rely heavily on our juniors and young imports like Carlu Sadie [on loan from the Stormers].”

He said they expect another tough and physical battle against the Jaguares.

https://youtu.be/9PW9zEj-8Yw

Recent results:

2018: Lions won 40-23, Johannesburg (quarterfinal)
2018: Jaguares won 49-35, Buenos Aires
2018: Lions won 47-27, Johannesburg
2017: Lions won 24-21, Johannesburg
2017: Jaguares won 36-24, Buenos Aires

Prediction: Each of the previous seven meetings between the Jaguares and Lions has been won by the home team on the day, with the Lions currently holding the edge with four wins to the Jaguares’ three. The Jaguares have won eight of their last 10 games at home against South African opposition, including their last four on the bounce across which they’ve scored an average of 39 points per game. The Lions have lost their last four games in a row outside South Africa; the last time they lost more was a nine-game stretch from 2011 to 2014. The Jaguares kicked 15 penalty goals in the opening 20 minutes of their matches last season, the most of any team, while the Lions kicked just two, with no team converting fewer. Lions duo Kwagga Smith (31) and Malcolm Marx (27) won more turnovers than anyone else in Super Rugby 2018.

jaguares v lions prediction
Photo: Rugby Pass Index

Teams:

Jaguares: 15 Joaquin Tuculet, 14 Bautista Delguy, 13 Matias Orlando, 12 Jeronimo de la Fuente (captain), 11 Ramiro Moyano, 10 Joaquin Diaz Bonilla, 9 Gonzalo Bertranou, 8 Javier Ortega Desio, 7 Rodrigo Bruni, 6 Pablo Matera, 5 Tomas Lavanini, 4 Guido Petti, 3 Santiago Medrano, 2 Agustin Creevy, 1 Mayco Vivas.
Replacements: 16 Julian Montoya, 17 Juan Pablo Zeiss, 18 Enrique Pieretto, 19 Matias Alemanno, 20 Marcos Kremer, 21 Martin Landajo, 22 Juan Cruz Mallia, 23 Matias Moroni.

Lions: 15 Andries Coetzee, 14 Courtnall Skosan, 13 Lionel Mapoe, 12 Harold Vorster, 11 Aphiwe Dyantyi, 10 Elton Jantjies, 9 Nic Groom, 8 Warren Whiteley (captain), 7 Hacjivah Dayimani, 6 Marnus Schoeman, 5 Marvin Orie, 4 Rhyno Herbst, 3 Carlu Sadie, 2 Malcolm Marx, 1 Dylan Smith.
Replacements: 16 Pieter Jansen, 17 Frans Van Wyk, 18 Jacobie Adriaanse, 19 Ruan Vermaak, 20 Robert Kruger, 21 Gianni Lombard/Dillon Smit, 22 Wandisile Simelane, 23 Ruan Combrinck.

Referee: Mike Fraser
Assistant referees: Brendon Pickerill, Rasta Rasivhenge
TMO: Santiago Borsani

Compiled by Jan de Koning, additional reporting by AFP
@king365ed
@rugby365com

* Stats courtesy of Opta Sports

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