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Preview: Super Rugby - Round Two, Part Two

Preview: Super Rugby - Round Two, Part Two

ALL BLACK BRAINTEASER: New Zealand franchises must nurse their All Black players through the rigours of the protracted competition to protect them for the World Cup.

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However, the plan is already facing problems after just one round.

The New Zealand Herald reported that the national team’s coaching staff wanted All Blacks to play no more than 60 minutes in the first three rounds to ease them through the often brutal all-Kiwi derbies.

But 16 of the 26 All Blacks who played in the first round exceeded the quota, including Chiefs lock Brodie Retallick – who had to leave the field after suffering a head knock in the 67th minute.

New Zealand Rugby is also insisting franchises don’t play their internationals for more than five consecutive matches and give them at least two games off, creating a dilemma.

“Players want to play, and they want to do the right thing for their teammates, so they are often reluctant to limit their minutes or leave the field,” the Herald said.

Against this back-drop, we head into a Saturday that sees an all-South African derby where all the fit Springboks will be on display.

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The Stormers have named Springboks Frans Malherbe and Eben Etzebeth among the replacements, for their match against the Lions.

There will be 20-odd Springboks on show at Newlands on Saturday – including Bok skipper Siya Kolisi.

Everybody talks about ‘player management’, but it appears to be more challenging than coaches suggest.

In Part Two of our preview we look at the last four matches of the weekend!

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Saturday, February 23:

Brumbies v Chiefs
(GIO Stadium, Canberra – Kick-off: 19.45; 21.45 NZ time; 08.45 GMT)

For nearly three years no Australian team could beat a team from New Zealand.

From July 2016 to May 2018, 40 matches in all, Kiwi teams beat their rivals from across the Tasman Sea.

Then the Waratahs broke the drought, followed by the Rebels and Brumbies claiming Trans-Tasman victories.

Now there is a real belief within the Aussie franchises.

“We parked [talk of a New Zealand losing run] last year,” Brumbies coach Dan McKellar said.

“The Chiefs are a quality opposition, just like the Rebels were last week,” McKellar said of his team’s 27-34 opening-round loss in an all-Australian derby.

“Whether they’re from New Zealand, South Africa or Timbuktu, it doesn’t matter.

” We’ve got to front up and get our stuff right on Saturday.”

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The Brumbies are determined to “make the Canberra Stadium a fortress”.

“It hurts losing at home and we’re determined to turn that around,” the coach said about his team’s loss last week.

“We’ve got some passionate supporters and we want to make sure that when they leave [the ground], they’ve enjoyed the experience,” McKellar added.

The Chiefs arrive in Canberra with a much bigger attacking threat than they had last week – All Black playmaker Damian McKenzie, back from injury.

The game is Chiefs co-captain Brodie Retallick’s 100th Super Rugby.

“As a team we want this to be a memorable occasion for Brodie and we want to pull together a performance befitting this milestone on the field come Saturday,” coach Colin Cooper said.

Recent results:

2018: Chiefs won 24-19, Hamilton
2017: Chiefs won 28-10, Waikato
2016: Chiefs won 48-23, Canberra
2015: Chiefs won 19-17, New Plymouth
2014: Brumbies won 32-30, Canberra (preliminary knock-out match)

Brumbies-v-Chiefs-head-to-head

Prediction: The Brumbies have suffered four defeats in their last four games against the Chiefs, including a 48-23 hammering the last time they hosted the Chiefs back in 2016. The Brumbies have won just two of their last six games at home, however, they did defeat New Zealand opposition on home soil in June last year (24-12 versus Hurricanes), ending a seven-match losing streak against opponents across the Ditch. The Chiefs will be out to avoid a third-straight Super Rugby defeat for the first time since June 2014 after a 2018 quarterfinal loss and a 2019 Round One loss, each to New Zealand opposition. The Chiefs’ Anton Lienert-Brown beat a round high 10 defenders as well as making more offloads (five) than anyone else on the opening weekend. The Brumbies’ Peter Samu made four clean breaks on the opening weekend of Super Rugby 2019, more than any other player in Round One.

super rugby prediction 2019 brumbies vs chiefs

Photo: RPI

Teams:

Brumbies: 15 Tom Banks, 14 Chance Peni, 13 Tevita Kuridrani, 12 Irae Simone, 11 Andy Muirhead, 10 Christian Lealiifano (captain), 9 Joe Powell, 8 Lachlan McCaffrey, 7 Tom Cusack, 6 Rob Valetini, 5 Sam Carter, 4 Rory Arnold, 3 Allan Alaalatoa, 2 Folau Fainga’a, 1 James Slipper.
Replacements: 16 Josh Mann-Rea, 17 Scott Sio, 18 Leslie Leuluaialii-Makin, 19 Blake Enever, 20 Peter Samu, 21 Matt Lucas, 22 Wharenui Hawera, 23 Tom Wright.

Chiefs: 15 Shaun Stevenson, 14 Ataata Moeakiola, 13 Tumua Manu, 12 Anton Lienert-Brown, 11 Etene Nanai-Seturo, 10 Damian McKenzie, 9 Te Toiroa Tahuriorangi, 8 Tyler Ardron, 7 Lachlan Boshier, 6 Mitchell Brown, 5 Michael Allardice, 4 Brodie Retallick (captain), 3 Nepo Laulala, 2 Nathan Harris, 1 Aidan Ross.
Replacements: 16 Samisoni Taukei’aho, 17 Tevita Mafileo, 18 Sosefo Kautai, 19 Taleni Seu, 20 Mitchell Karpik, 21 Jonathan Taumateine, 22 Orbyn Leger, 23 Bailyn Sullivan.

Referee: Angus Gardner (Australia)
Assistant referees: Damon Murphy (Australia), Graham Cooper (Australia)
TMO: Ian Smith (Australia)

Sharks v Blues
(Kings Park, Durban – Kick-off: 15.05; 13.05 GMT; 02.05, Sunday, February 24 NZ time)

The Sharks host the Blues in their first home match of the season and they will be confident of adding a second win – following last week’s opening round demolition of the Sunwolves.

Having beaten the Blues in 11 of their last 12 games, the Sharks also won three of their five against New Zealand teams in 2018.

However, it has not gone unnoticed in Durban that the Blues are a different beast this year – coming within one penalty kick of beating the Crusaders last week.

“They are obviously a formidable side,” Sharks coach Robert du Preez told a media briefing in Durban.

“You all saw how well they played against the Crusaders,” the coach added.

“We can’t focus too much on them. We spent a lot of time on our own game this week.”

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The coach admitted that the “hot and humid” conditions should work in his team’s favour, as they are accustomed to it.

He said it is “massive” that the Sharks win all their home games.

“If we want to be in contention to be in the play-offs, we have to win all our home games.”

The Blues arrive in Durban without All Black superstar Ma’a Nonu.

The two-time World Cup winner has returned to Super Rugby – after three years in France – in the hope of winning a place in the All Blacks’ World Cup squad.

The blockbusting centre, who will be 37 when this year’s tournament rolls around, played in the Blues’ narrow loss to Crusaders last weekend.

However, Nonu’s dream suffered a blow Thursday when the Blues left him out of the 23-man squad to play the Sharks.

Recent results:

2018: Sharks won 63-40, Auckland
2016: Blues won 23-18, Auckland
2014: Sharks won 29-23, Albany
2013: Sharks won 22-20, Durban
2012: Sharks won 29-23, Auckland

Sharks-v-Blues-head-to-head

Prediction: The Sharks have won 11 of their last 12 games against the Blues, those victories coming by an average margin of 10 points per game. The Sharks have won their last five games on the bounce at home, despite leading at half-time just twice in this span. The Blues have fallen to three defeats in their last three matches – they have not lost four on the bounce since April 2015 when they lost nine in a row. The Sharks were the top scorers in Round 1, crossing for six converted tries, they also missed fewer tackles (nine) than any other side. Akira Ioane has now gained 100+ metres in two of his last four games for the Blues – his 20 carries last week was the second most he has made in a Super Rugby match, whilst his 100 metres was the most by any forward in Round One.

super rugby prediction 2019 sharks vs blues

Photo: RPI

Teams:

Sharks: 15 Aphelele Fassi, 14 Sibusiso Nkosi, 13 Lukhanyo Am, 12 Andre Esterhuizen, 11 Makazole Mapimpi, 10 Robert du Preez, 9 Louis Schreuder (captain), 8 Daniel du Preez, 7 Tyler Paul, 6 Jacques Vermeulen, 5 Ruan Botha, 4 Hyron Andrews, 3 Coenie Oosthuizen, 2 Armand van der Merwe, 1 Tendai Mtawarira.
Replacements: 16 Kerron van Vuuren, 17 Juan Schoeman, 18 Thomas du Toit, 19 Gideon Koegelenberg, 20 Phepsi Buthelezi, 21 Cameron Wright, 22 Jeremy Ward, 23 Curwin Bosch.

Blues: 15 Melani Nanai, 14 Caleb Clarke, 13 Thomas Faiane, 12 Sonny Bill Williams, 11 Rieko Ioane, 10 Otere Black, 9 Jonathan Ruru; 8 Akira Ioane, 7 Dalton Papalii, 6 Tom Robinson, 5 Josh Goodhue, 4 Patrick Tuipulotu (captain), 3 Ofa Tu’ungafasi, 2 James Parsons, 1 Karl Tu’inukuafe.
Replacements: 16 Matt Moulds, 17 Alex Hodgman, 18 Sione Mafileo, 19 Gerard Cowley-Tuioti, 20 Matt Matich, 21 Augustine Pulu, 22 Harry Plummer, 23 Tanielu Tele’a.

Referee: Paul Williams (New Zealand)
Assistant referees: Cwengile Jadezweni, Griffon Colby (South Africa)
TMO: Marius Jonker (South Africa)

Stormers v Lions
(Newlands, Cape Town – Kick-off: 17.15; 15.15 GMT)

The Lions spoke all week about expecting a chastened Stormers side to hit back hard in Cape Town.

The Newlands-based team’s (3-40) loss to the Bulls has been seen as a ‘disaster’.

However, the Lions made it clear they are not going to underestimate their hosts.

“Not even close,” Lions coach Swys de Bruin said, adding: “It is Newlands, it is Cape Town, it is a very proud franchise and they will bounce back like never before.

“We are under no illusion [that they will bounce back].”

Stormers coach Robbie Fleck said it is important that they play well.

“We have had some tough discussions this week and a bit of honesty,” the coach said.

“That [the loss at Loftus] wasn’t our standard.

“If we play better, the win will come.”

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Fleck said one loss is not a disaster.

“It is a long season and we have a chance to rectify that.

“It is about getting the small things right, because it was the small things that let us down.

“We had a bad day and we need to rectify it and it starts on Saturday.

“We started picking up the pieces already [last] Saturday night.

“The Lions are very strong at the breakdown and their maul.”

De Bruin spoke about the tough trip back from Argentina and the influence it could have on his team.

“You leave at 07.00 in the morning, spend three to four hours in São Paulo and then only do you get on an 11-hour flight back [to South Africa].

“You leave there 07.00 on a Sunday morning and arrive here at 08.00 on a Monday morning.”

Recent results:

2018: Lions won 26-23, Cape Town
2018: Lions won 52-31, Johannesburg
2017: Lions won 29-16, Cape Town
2016: Lions won 29-22, Johannesburg
2015: Stormers and Lions drew 19-all, Cape Town

Stormers-v-Lions-head-to-head

Prediction: The Lions have won their past four matches against the Stormers, averaging 34 points per match in this span. The Stormers have won six of their last eight games at Newlands, but have not defeated the Lions here since April 2014. The Lions are undefeated in 22 of their last 23 matches against South African opposition, with an average margin of victory of 20 points per game in that span for them. Four players won a round-high three turnovers on the opening weekend, two of which were Lions players (Malcolm Marx and Carlu Sadie). Marnus Schoeman (Lions) scored three tries in Round One – he’s just the 10th different forward to score a Super Rugby hat trick since 2011 and the first ever forward to score one for the Lions.

super rugby prediction 2019 stormers vs lions

Photo: RPI

Teams:

Stormers: 15 Damian Willemse, 14 Sergeal Petersen, 13 Ruhan Nel, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 SP Marais, 10 Jean-Luc du Plessis, 9 Jano Vermaak, 8 Sikhumbuzo Notshe, 7 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 6 Siya Kolisi (captain), 5 JD Schickerling, 4 Chris van Zyl, 3 Wilco Louw, 2 Bongi Mbonambi, 1 Ali Vermaak.
Replacements: 16 Scarra Ntubeni, 17 Corne Fourie, 18 Frans Malherbe, 19 Eben Etzebeth, 20 Jaco Coetzee, 21 Herschel Jantjies, 22 Joshua Stander, 23 Dan du Plessis.

Lions: 15 Andries Coetzee, 14 Ruan Combrinck, 13 Lionel Mapoe, 12 Harold Vorster, 11 Courtnall Skosan, 10 Elton Jantjies, 9 Nic Groom, 8 Warren Whiteley (captain), 7 Kwagga Smith, 6 Marnus Schoeman, 5 Stephan Lewies, 4 Marvin Orie, 3 Carlu Sadie, 2 Malcolm Marx, 1 Dylan Smith.
Replacements: 16 Pieter Jansen, 17 Sti Sithole, 18 Jacobie Adriaanse, 19 Rhyno Herbst, 20 Hacjivah Dayimani, 21 Gianni Lombard, 22 Aphiwe Dyantyi, 23 Sylvian Mahuza.

Referee: Egon Seconds (South Africa)
Assistant referees: Divan Uys (South Africa), Aimee Barret-Theron (South Africa)
TMO: Christie du Preez (South Africa)

Jaguares v Bulls
(Jose Amalfitani Stadium, Buenos Aires – Kick-off: 18.40; 23.40 SA time; 21.40 GMT)

The last match of the weekend will be between two of the most physical teams and the word “brutal” is an apt description of what can be expected.

The Bulls started their campaign in the most impressive way, demolishing the Stormers.

However, the South American team will not roll over so easily.

The Argentine franchise wants to avoid back-to-back losses on home soil for the first time since March 2018, after their defeat to the Lions last week.

Bulls defence coach Pine Pienaar said they have a lot of “fundamentals” to work on, despite their impressive opening round win.

“It is a work in progress for us,” Pienaar said.

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He added that the hot and humid conditions, with the possibility of rain, will make it a much bigger challenge.

Pienaar said “playing in the right areas” of the field will be key.

“We are blessed with great decision-makers,” the assistant coach said.

“It comes down to physicality, on either defence or attack, to back those decisions.”

He pointed out that the Jaguares are blessed with a team full of international players and some world-class players in key positions.

Each of the previous four meetings in this fixture has been won by the home team on the day, with each side having won twice.

Recent results:

2018: Bulls won 43-34, Pretoria
2018: Jaguares won 54-24, Buenos Aires
2017: Bulls won 26-13, Pretoria
2016: Jaguares won 29-11, Buenos Aires

Jaguares-v-Bulls-head-to-head

Prediction: Each of the previous four meetings between the Jaguares and Bulls has been won by the home team on the day, with each side having won two fixtures. The Jaguares will be out to avoid back-to-back losses on home soil for the first time since March 2018 after a 25-16 loss to the Lions last week. The Bulls have won just two of their last 15 games away from home, despite leading at half-time in five of their last nine such matches. The Jaguares have lost just one line-out across their last six matches (67/68), including winning 12/12 last week against the Lions. The Bulls completed 92 percent of their tackles in Round 1, the best rate of any side, the Jaguares completed just 83 percent of their hits.

super rugby prediction 2019 jaguares vs bulls

Photo: RPI

Teams:

Bulls: 15 Warrick Gelant, 14 Cornal Hendricks, 13 Jessie Kriel, 12 Burger Odendaal, 11 Rosko Specman, 10 Handré Pollard, 9 Embrose Papier, 8 Duane Vermeulen, 7 Hanro Liebenberg, 6 Ruan Steenkamp, 5 Lodewyk de Jager (captain), 4 Jason Jenkins, 3 Trevor Nyakane, 2 Schalk Brits, 1 Lizo Gqoboka.
Replacements: 16 Corniel Els, 17 Simphiwe Matanzima, 18 Dayan van der Westhuizen, 19 Eli Snyman, 20 Thembelani Bholi, 21 Ivan van Zyl, 22 Manie Libbok, 23 Dylan Sage.

Jaguares: 15 Joaquin Tuculet, 14 Bautista Delguy, 13 Matias Orlando, 12 Jeronimo De La Fuente, 11 Ramiro Moyano, 10 Joaquin Diaz Bonilla, 9 Tomas Cubelli, 8 Javier Ortega Desio, 7 Marcos Kremer, 6 Pablo Matera, 5 Tomas Lavanini, 4 Guido Petti, 3 Santiago Medrano, 2 Agustin Creevy, 1 Mayco Vivas.
Replacements: 16 Julian Montoya, 17 Juan Pablo Zeiss, 18 Enrique Pieretto Heilan, 19 Matias Alemanno, 20 Rodrigo Bruni, 21 Martin Landajo, 22 Juan Cruz Mallia, 23 Matias Moroni.

Referee: Brendon Pickerill (New Zealand)
Assistant referees: Rasta Rasivhenge (South Africa), Mike Fraser (New Zealand)
TMO: Santiago Borsani (Argentina)

Compiled by Jan de Koning, additional reporting by AFP
@king365ed
@rugby365com

* Stats courtesy of Opta Sports

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