Preview: Waratahs v Highlanders
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The Waratahs and Highlanders round off the semifinals with the Sydneysiders determined to prove that regular-season points, where they finished behind the Highlanders, were an aberration.
The Highlanders go into the trans-Tasman showdown with the better form – they were the better-performing side in the regular season – while the Waratahs, like the Brumbies, have the greater pedigree.
The Waratahs are the defending champions and are bidding to become the first team from Australia to successfully defend their title by winning back to back tournaments. The only teams to have accomplished that feat are the Blues, the Crusaders, the Bulls and the Chiefs.
The Waratahs, given a week off and a home semi against the Highlanders under a quirk of the conference system, have taken lessons from the way the Brumbies beat the Otago franchise earlier in the year by slowing the game down.
"They are a very impressive team, they play a high-speed, high-tempo game, they have plenty of threats, and I think [scrumhalf] Aaron Smith is playing some of the best rugby of his career," Waratahs assistant coach Daryl Gibson said.
"We need to try and put the brakes on them to try and slow them down, and try and dictate the tempo of the game that we want to play."
Although Kurtley Beale is ruled out for the big clash with a quadricep injury and wing Rob Horne has
been raced into the team after overcoming an injury, Gibson said his other stars were coming into form, particularly Israel Folau who is "looking particularly dangerous".
Waratahs coach Michael Cheika is sure to encourage his forwards to tease the New Zealanders to see whether they have the appetite for what could be a rugged encounter.
Highlanders flank Elliot Dixon says that whatever happens the Highlanders are determined to not flip their lids and give away needless penalties.
"We had a chat about that. At this time of the year three points can make the difference. It's pretty much Test-match rugby from here on in," said Dixon.
"We don't really want to give away any penalties and sometimes there is a bit of niggle because it is such a physical game and both sides want to win. It happens and you just want to get on with it."
The Highlanders produced a strong finish to beat the Waratahs 26-19 in Dunedin in Round Four this year, but playing in Sydney is another matter.
They have only won there twice, the last time was eight years ago, and both games with claimed by a one-point margin.
Players to watch:
For the Waratahs: The obvious one here is fullback Israel Folau who can tear up any defence with his strong runs, lethal step, and diverse Rugby League, Australian Rules Football and Rugby Union skill set. Adam Ashley-Cooper has a wealth of experience and flyhalf Bernard Foley is a points machine for the Tahs – he will be dictating play. Looking at the forwards, Michael Hooper is an energized specimen, he wont stop running and will be all over the park making tackles and providing support while flank partner Jacques Potgieter will be making heavy carries. Big burly lock Will Skelton should be prominent in carries and in the tight-loose.
For the Highlanders: The backline is riddled with talent – Ben Smith will be composed as ever at the back looking to slice some gaps whilst also linking up with try-machine Waisake Naholo. In the midfield Malakai Fekitoa is dangerous from broken play and a demon defender. Halfback's Lima Sopoaga and Aaron Smith have been key members in the team and they will unite again as a combo. In the forwards Nasi Manu will be a threat in carries and support play, while Elliot Dixon will always get through a mountain of work. Watch out for hooker Liam Coltman for some dynamic running and linking play.
Head to head: The battle at the back will be a classic duel between Israel Folau and Ben Smith and it will be interesting to see what game plan they each adopt. The youth of Malakai Fekitoa vs the experience of Adam Ashley-Cooper at No.13 will be a contest to watch while both flyhalves are the leading point-scorers in the competition. The Highlanders have been physical this season and the Waratahs are a known bullying outfit so the battle at the breakdown will something spectacular. Michael Hooper, Wycliff Palu, Jacques Potgieter (all Waratahs) taking on Elliot Dixon, James Lentjes and Nasi Manu (all Highlanders).
Recent results:
2015: Highlanders won 26-19, Dunedin
2014: Waratahs won 44-16, Sydney
2012: Highlanders won 18-17, Dunedin
2011: Waratahs won 33-7, Sydney
2010: Highlanders won 26-10, Dunedin
2009: Waratahs won 34-14, Sydney
2008: Waratahs won 15-12, Dunedin
2007: Highlanders won 26-25, Sydney
2006: Waratahs won 20-3, Dunedin
2005: Waratahs won 41-20, Dunedin
Prediction: The home side on the day has won each of the last six instances of this fixture (three wins apiece). The Waratahs’ three victories in that sequence came by an aggregate margin of 72 points, while the Highlanders’ three wins came by a combined 24 points. The New Zealand side has won six of their last eight matches and those six victories have been by a combined margin of 148 points. Similarly, the Waratahs have won four of their last five and their four wins came by a total 76 points. The Waratahs have an even record of three wins and three losses in semifinals. They have averaged just 18 points and have never scored more than 28. The Highlanders have won one of four matches at this stage of the season but have not featured in the semifinals since 2002. Only the Sharks (26.1) have averaged more kicks from hand than the Highlanders (24.8) this season. The Waratahs have produced the fewest, an average of 15.6. The Highlanders have also been the recipients of the fewest kicks from hand, an average of 18.4. The Highlanders have won the most turnovers this season (151), while the ‘Tahs have won the fewest (88). Israel Folau (1606) and Waisake Naholo (1310) have gained more metres than any other player this year. Bernard Foley (175) and Lima Sopoaga (173) are the top point-scorers this season, however they have kicked goals at 69% and 71% success rates respectively. The Highlanders to continue their rich run of form and upset the Waratahs by 10 points.
Teams:
Waratahs: 15 Israel Folau, 14 Taqele Naiyaravoro, 13 Adam Ashley-Cooper, 12 Matt Carraro, 11 Rob Horne, 10 Bernard Foley, 9 Nick Phipps, 8 Wycliff Palu, 7 Michael Hooper, 6 Jacques Potgieter, 5 David Dennis (captain), 4 Will Skelton, 3 Sekope Kepu, 2 Tatafu Polota-Nau, 1 Benn Robinson.Replacements from – Tolu Latu, Jeremy Tilse, Paddy Ryan, Mitchell Chapman , Stephen Hoiles, Patrick McCutcheon, Brendan Mckibbin, Jono Lance, Peter Betham
Highlanders: 15 Ben Smith (co-captain), 14 Waisake Naholo, 13 Malakai Fekitoa, 12 Richard Buckman, 11 Patrick Osborne, 10 Lima Sopoaga, 9 Aaron Smith, 8 Nasi Manu (co-captain), 7 James Lentjes, 6 Elliot Dixon, 5 Mark Reddish, 4 Alex Ainley, 3 Josh Hohneck, 2 Liam Coltman, 1 Brendon Edmonds.Replacements: 16 Ash Dixon, 17 Daniel Lienert-Brown, 18 Ross Geldenhuys, 19 Joe Wheeler, 20 Gareth Evans, 21 Fumiaki Tanaka, 22 Trent Renata, 23 Shaun Treeby.
Date: Saturday June 27
Venue: Allianz Stadium, Sydney
Kick-off: 19.55 (21.55 NZST; 09.55 GMT)
Expected weather: Clear skies, plenty of sunshine with no rain. A high of 19 degrees Celsius and a low of 8.
Referee: Craig Joubert (South Africa)
Assistant referees: Andrew Lees (Australia), James Leckie (Australia)
TMO: George Ayoub (Australia)
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