Rugby Aotearoa - predictions and teams: Round Nine
THOSE STILL IN THE RUNNING: The Highlanders hold the key to the hopes of the Hurricanes and Blues catching the Crusaders.
The Crusaders are in the driving seat, with a big advantage at the top of the ladder.
With only two rounds left, the Hurricanes and Blues need a huge favour from the Highlanders this weekend.
The Crusaders sit in first place on the standings with 24 and need to win one of their last two games – against the Highlanders this Sunday or the Blues in Round 10 and the title is theirs.
The Blues, second on 22 points, have just one game remaining. They need the Highlanders to knock over the Crusaders in Christchurch this Sunday to set-up a virtual Final at Eden Park in Round 10.
The Hurricanes are third on 16 points and you will need a calculator.
Firstly, the Hurricanes need the Highlanders to beat the Crusaders this Sunday.
Then comes the even harder part. The Hurricanes need to pick up bonus-point wins over the Chiefs this week and the Highlanders in round Round 10 to have any chance.
That will put them on 26 points.
If the Hurricanes can do that, then everything hinges on the final game between the Blues and Crusaders.
If the Blues beat the Crusaders without a bonus point they will go to 26 points.
In which case it will come down to points differential between the Blues and Hurricanes (and potentially the Crusaders who could end on 26 points with two losing bonus points in their final two games).
* Report above courtesy of allblacks.com
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This week’s predictions
Saturday, August 8
Hurricanes v Chiefs
(Wellington Regional Stadium, Wellington – Kick-off: 19.05; 07.05 GMT)
The Hurricanes are undefeated in their last five Super Rugby games against the Chiefs, including wins in their last three meetings.
The last and only time they won more in succession against them was a four-game stretch from 2005 to 2008.
The Hurricanes have won their last four Super Rugby games on the bounce, each by a margin of seven points or fewer on the day.
The Chiefs’ club-record losing streak is extended to eight games after their Round Eight defeat to the Crusaders; although, they have lost by an average margin of just six points per game across that period.
The Hurricanes have made a competition-high 13 clean breaks per game in Super Rugby Aotearoa, while no team has made fewer per game than the Chiefs (seven).
Lachlan Boshier (Chiefs) has crossed for a try in five of his last six Super Rugby games against the Hurricanes, including his last four on the bounce against them. He’s also not missed a single tackle in any of his last eight games against them (67 attempts).
Predictions
@rugby365com: Hurricanes by nine points
Teams
Hurricanes: 15 Jordie Barrett, 14 Kobus van Wyk, 13 Peter Umaga-Jensen, 12 Vince Aso, 11 Wes Goosen, 10 Jackson Garden-Bachop, 9 Thomas Perenara (co-captain), 8 Ardie Savea, 7 Du’Plessis Kirifi, 6 Reed Prinsep, 5 Scott Scrafton, 4 James Blackwell, 3 Tyrel Lomax, 2 Dane Coles (co-captain), 1 Ben May.
Replacements: 16 Asafo Aumua, 17 Tevita Mafileo, 18 Pouri Rakete-Stones, 19 Kane Le’aupepe, 20 Devan Flanders, 21 Jamie Booth, 22 Billy Proctor, 23 Jonah Lowe.
Chiefs: 15 Damian McKenzie, 14 Shaun Stevenson, 13 Anton Lienert-Brown, 12 Alex Nankivell, 11 Sean Wainui, 10 Kaleb Trask, 9 Brad Weber, 8 Pita Gus Sowakula, 7 Sam Cane (captain), 6 Luke Jacobson, 5 Mitchell Brown, 4 Naitoa Ah Kuoi, 3 Nepo Laulala, 2 Samisoni Taukei’aho, 1 Ollie Norris.
Replacements: 16 Bradley Slater, 17 Rob Cobb, 18 Angus Ta’avao, 19 Tupou Vaa’i, 20 Mitchell Karpik, 21 Lisati Milo-Harris, 22 Quinn Tupaea, 23 Kini Naholo.
Referee: James Doleman
Assistant referees: Ben O’Keeffe, Brendon Pickerill
TMO: Mike Fraser
Sunday, August 9
Crusaders v Highlanders
(Addington Showgrounds, Christchurch – Kick-off: 15.35; 03.35 GMT)
The Crusaders have won their last five completed Super Rugby games on the bounce against the Highlanders, each time by a margin of 20 points or more.
The Crusaders’ succumbed to a 34-32 defeat to the Hurricanes in their last home game (Round Seven – Super Rugby Aotearoa) and will be out to avoid back-to-back home losses for the first time since April 2015.
The Highlanders are on the hunt for back-to-back away wins for the first time since April 2018 after snatching a come-from-behind 33-31 win over the Chiefs in their last away game (Round Six).
The Highlanders (89 percent) boast the highest line-out success rate on their own throw of any team in Super Rugby Aotearoa, while their 12 line-out wins per game are the second-most of any team (Chiefs -15 per game).
Will Jordan (Crusaders) has gained 8.2 metres per carry in Super Rugby Aotearoa (74 carries, 606 metres), the most of any player to have made at least 20 carries this campaign.
Predictions
@rugby365com: Crusaders by 18 points
Teams
Crusaders: 15 Will Jordan, 14 Sevu Reece, 13 Braydon Ennor, 12 Jack Goodhue, 11 George Bridge, 10 Richie Mo’unga, 9 Bryn Hall, 8 Whetukamokamo Douglas, 7 Tom Christie, 6 Tom Sanders, 5 Quinten Strange, 4 Samuel Whitelock, 3 Michael Alaalatoa, 2 Codie Taylor (captain), 1 Joe Moody.
Replacements: 16 Andrew Makalio, 17 George Bower, 18 Oliver Jager, 19 Luke Romano, 20 Sione Havili, 21 Mitchell Drummond, 22 Brett Cameron, 23 Leicester Fainga’anuku.
Highlanders: 15 Mitch Hunt, 14 Josh McKay, 13 Michael Collins, 12 Sio Tomkinson, 11 Jona Nareki, 10 Josh Ioane, 9 Aaron Smith (co-captain), 8 Marino Mikaele-Tu’u, 7 Dillon Hunt, 6 Shannon Frizell, 5 Jack Whetton, 4 Pari Pari Parkinson, 3 Jeff Thwaites, 2 Ash Dixon (co-captain), Ayden Johnstone.
Replacements: 16 Liam Coltman, 17 Daniel Lienert-Brown, 18 Siate Tokolahi, 19 Manaaki Selby-Rickit, 20 Jesse Parete, 21 Folau Fakatava, 22 Ngane Punivai, 23 Teariki Ben-Nicholas.
Referee: Paul Williams
Assistant referees: Mike Fraser, Brendon Pickerill
TMO: Ben O’Keeffe
Bye: Blues
* Stats provided by Opta Sports
