S15 Preview: Round 14, Part Two
The last four Super Rugby matches this weekend are all shaping as fierce contests that could go either way, we took a closer look and tried to predict the outcomes.
There will be two fierce contests in Australia with the big derby in Canberra followed by a basement battle in Perth between the Force and the Lions, and there does not seem much between the sides in either match.
From there the focus shifts to South Africa with the clash between the similarly-placed Cheetahs and Waratahs preceding the big showdown in Durban between the Sharks and the Stormers.
Predicting the winners this weekend was not easy but we gave it our best shot.
Brumbies v Reds
(Canberra Stadium, Canberra – Kick-off: 19.40; 09.40 GMT)
The only two Australian teams in the competition with a chance of making the play-offs square off in what should be a highly physical battle in Canberra.
Jake White's team have been the surprise package of the season, and have been disciplined both on defence and through some precise attacking play, which was on display in their bonus-point victory over the Hurricanes last week.
A major question mark will be whether new flyhalf Zack Holmes can follow up his solid performance in Wellington with another controlled game against the Wallaby halfback pairing.
The Reds got the better of them in Brisbane earlier in the season so the Brumbies will be keen to show that they belong at the top of the Australian conference by getting revenge on home soil.
The Reds will know that this game could determine whether they get the opportunity to defend their title in the knock-out stages of the competition this year so they should take the game to the hosts.
Both teams have aggressive forward packs, and while the Reds may have more stars in the backline the Brumbies have performed well as a unit so it should be quite an evenly balanaced match.
Recent results:
2012: Reds won 20-13 in Brisbane
2011: Brumbies won 22-14 in Brisbane
2011: Reds won 31-25 in Canberra
2010: Brumbies won 32-12 in Canberra
2009: Brumbies won 52-13 in Brisbane
Prediction: Both teams have hit some impressive form in recent weeks and will be desperate to finish the season on top of the conference so there should be plenty of intensity and not much to seperate them. The Brumbies have home ground advantage, but the Reds have too many quality players which will prove the difference and win them the game by a few points.
Teams:
Brumbies: 15 Jesse Mogg, 14 Henry Speight, 13 Andrew Smith, 12 Pat McCabe, 11 Joe Tomane, 10 Zack Holmes, 9 Nic White, 8 Ben Mowen (captain), 7 Michael Hooper, 6 Peter Kimlin, 5 Sam Carter, 4 Scott Fardy, 3 Dan Palmer, 2 Stephen Moore, 1 Ben Alexander.
Replacements: 16 Anthony Hegarty, 17 Ruaidhri Murphy, 18 Leon Power, 19 Ita Vaea, 20 Ian Prior, 21 Robbie Coleman, 22 Tevita Kuridrani.
Reds: TBC
Referee: Steve Walsh (Australia)
Assistant referees: Angus Gardner (Australia), Andrew Lees (Australia)
TMO: George Ayoub (Australia)
Force v Lions
(nib Stadium, Perth – Kick-off: 19.40; 11.40 GMT)
It will be a battle for pride in Perth when the Lions take on the Force in their bottom of the table clash with both teams desperate for some consolation.
The Force have a bye next week ahead of the June Test window, so they will give this one a full go and look to bully the Lions who are at the end of a winless tour.
The Perth side took some heart from the way they fought back against the Rebels last week, and they will see this game against the bottom-placed team as an opportunity to prove they can put together an 80-minute performance.
The home side will look to their strong pack of forwards to drive the Lions backwards, and are likely to target set-piece dominance against the erratic and weary visitors.
Lions coach John Mitchell returns to face his former team with a battered and bruised squad that have still not managed a win since the opening round.
They will play like a side with nothing to lose, and if they avoid the crucial lapses in concentration that have held them back all season they certainly have the potential to score tries against the Force.
The Lions have called in scrumhalf Tian Meyer and Bok prop CJ van der Linde for the last game of their tour and they are likely to throw everything at the Force to salvage something from their travels.
Recent results:
2011: Force won 27-15 in Johannesburg
2010: Force won 33-12 in Johannesburg
2009: Force won 55-14 in Perth
2008: Force won 18-16 in Johannesburg
2007: Lions won 25-24 in Perth
Prediction: Both teams are coming off a series of disappointing losses so there will be everything to prove. The Lions have shown fighting spirit on their tour but the Force have home advantage so we are backing them to win by about five points.
Teams:
Western Force: 15 Alfie Mafi, 14 Nick Cummins, 13 Will Tupou, 12 Rory Sidey, 11 Napolioni Nalaga, 10 Ben Seymour, 9 Brett Sheehan, 8 Ben McCalman, 7 David Pocock (captain), 6 Matt Hodgson, 5 Nathan Sharpe, 4 Toby Lynn, 3 Salesi Ma'afu, 2 Nathan Charles, 1 Pek Cowan.
Replacements: 16 Elvis Taione, 17 Salesi Manu, 18 Phoenix Battye, 19 Richard Brown, 20 Lachlan McCaffrey, 21 Josh Holmes, 22 David Harvey.
Lions: 15 Andries Coetzee, 14 Deon Van Rensburg, 13 Lionel Mapoe, 12 Jaco Taute, 11 Michael Killian, 10 Elton Jantjies, 9 Tian Meyer, 8 Joshua Strauss (captain), 7 Grant Hattingh, 6 Derick Minnie, 5 Ruan Botha, 4 Franco Van der Merwe, 3 Patric Cilliers, 2 Callie Visagie, 1 CJ Van der Linde.
Replacements: 16 Martin Bezuidenhout, 17 JC Janse van Rensburg, 18 Cobus Grobbelaar, 19 Jaco Kriel, 20 Ross Cronje, 21 Ruan Combrinck, 22 James Kamana.
Referee: Garratt Williamson (New Zealand)
Assistant referees: James Leckie (Australia), Matt O'Brien (Australia)
TMO: Matt Goddard (Australia)
Cheetahs v Waratahs
(Free State Stadium, Bloemfontein – Kick-off: 17.05; 15.05)
Both the Cheetahs and the Waratahs have had underwhelming campaigns so far, and have been plagued by a series of narrow losses which have taken them out of contention for a place in the play-off.
The hard ground of the Free State Stadium could well provide the perfect platform for both teams to cut loose and put on a display of running rugby as neither side have anything to lose.
The home team have to shake off the effects of a brutal clash with the Sharks last week but they will be keen to follow up on their famous win in Sydney last year by condemning the Waratahs to a winless tour.
The Waratahs welcome back Wallaby speedster Drew Mitchell, and they will be keen get their talented backline in some space against the vulnerable Cheetahs defence, but their first priority will be establishing dominance up front.
Both teams have some exciting ball-carriers and with Ashley Johnson back in the starting line-up the Cheetahs are set to test the Waratahs' defensive commitment.
The visitors will attack the Cheetahs in the set-pieces and try to force them to run the ball from their own half, so tactical kicking could play a vital role.
Recent results:
2011: Cheetahs won 23-3 in Sydney
2010: Waratahs won 40-17 in Sydney
2009: Waratahs won 18-10 in Bloemfontein
2008: Waratahs won 32-19 in Sydney
2007: Cheetahs won 30-26 in Kimberley
Prediction: The Waratahs have lost narrowly to South African teams for the last two weks and that trend will continue as although both teams will fire shots the Cheetahs should have enough to win at home by about six points.
Teams:
Cheetahs: 15 Hennie Daniller, 14 Rocco Jansen, 13 Robert Ebersohn, 12 Andries Strauss, 11 Willie le Roux, 10 Riaan Smit, 9 Piet van Zyl, 8 Philip van der Walt, 7 Ashley Johnson, 6 Heinrich Brüssow, 5 Andries Ferreira, 4 Izak van der Westhuizen, 3 WP Nel, 2 Adriaan Strauss (captain), 1 Coenie Oosthuizen.
Replacements: 16 Hercu Liebenberg, 17 Trevor Nyakane, 18 Francois Uys, 19 Justin Downey, 20 Tewis de Bruyn, 21 Sias Ebersohn, 22 Philip Snyman.
Waratahs: 15 Bernard Foley, 14 Tom Kingston, 13 Rob Horne, 12 Adam Ashley-Cooper, 11 Drew Mitchell, 10 Berrick Barnes, 9 Brendan McKibbin
8 Wycliff Palu, 7 Chris Alcock, 6 Dave Dennis, 5 Kane Douglas, 4 Sitaleki Timani, 3 Sekope Kepu, 2 Tatafu Polota-Nau, 1 Benn Robinson (captain)
Replacements: 16 John Ulugia, 17 Jeremy Tilse, 18 Richard Stanford, 19 Lopeti Timani, 20 Sarel Pretorius, 21 Daniel Halangahu, 22 Tom Carter.
Referee: Craig Joubert (South Africa)
Assistant referees: Sindile Mayende (South Africa), Stefan Breytenbach (South Africa)
TMO: Gerrie Coetzee (South Africa)
Sharks v Stormers
(Kings Park, Durban – Kick-off: 19.10; 17.10 GMT)
The coastal derby in Durban on Saturday will have a major influence of the campaigns of both sides involved and comes two weeks before the first Test against England at the same venue which only heightens the tension.
Matches between these two sides in recent times have been strained, low-scoring affairs and we appear set for yet another brutally physical battle as both teams have picked two blindside flanks and are loaded with ball-carriers.
The battle of the gainline will be immense as the Sharks have produced incredible momentum on attack while the Stormers thrive on their ability to shut the opposition down quickly and drive them back in the tackle.
Both teams have been forced to make changes to their backline, with injuries to Tim Whitehead and Joe Pietersen giving each side a slightly different complexion out wide.
The Sharks front row may be able to give their side the upper hand in the scrums, but the imposing Stormers second row should give the visiting team an advantage at line-out time.
Both sides have developed some good winning momentum which they will be desperate to carry into the upcoming break so there should be no holding back as they tear into one another.
Each side seems to possess what the other lacks as the Sharks have the ability to devastate the opposition and win four-try bonus points – something that has eluded the more consistent and disciplined Stormers.
The table-topping Stormers have won the last couple of clashes between the teams, but not by much, and the Sharks have home advantage so this one really is evenly poised.
Recent results:
2012: Stormers won 15-12 in Cape Town
2011: Stormers won 32-12 in Cape Town
2011: Stormers won 16-6 in Durban
2010: Sharks won 20-14 in Durban
2009: Sharks won 20-15 in Cape Town
Prediction: With so little to choose between the teams and their contrasting strengths this is a tough one to predict so we are going to sit on the fence and call a tense draw.
Teams:
Sharks: 15 Patrick Lambie, 14 JP Pietersen, 13 Paul Jordaan, 12 Meyer Bosman, 11 Lwazi Mvovo, 10 Frederic Michalak, 9 Charl McLeod, 8 Keegan Daniel (captain), 7 Willem Alberts, 6 Marcell Coetzee, 5 Anton Bresler, 4 Steven Sykes, 3 Jannie du Plessis, 2 Bismarck du Plessis, 1 Tendai Mtawarira.
Replacements: 16 Craig Burden, 17 Wiehahn Herbst, 18 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 19 Ryan Kankowski, 20 Jacques Botes, 21 Odwa Ndungane, 22 Louis Ludik.
Stormers: 15 Gio Aplon, 14 Gerhard van den Heever, 13 Juan de Jongh, 12 Jean de Villiers (captain), 11 Bryan Habana, 10 Peter Grant, 9 Dewaldt Duvenage, 8 Jebb Sinclair, 7 Rynhardt Elstadt, 6 Siya Kolisi, 5 Andries Bekker, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Brok Harris, 2 Tiaan Liebenberg, 1 Steven Kitshoff.
Replacements: 16 Deon Fourie, 17 Frans Malherbe, 18 De Kock Steenkamp, 19 Don Armand, 20 Nick Fenton-Wells, 21 Louis Schreuder, 22 Burton Francis.
Referee: Jaco Peyper (South Africa)
Assistant referees: Lourens van der Merwe (South Africa), Reuben Rossouw (South Africa)
TMO: Johann Meuwesen (South Africa)
By Michael de Vries
