S15 Preview: Round 16, Part One
The must-win madness has taken full flight in Super Rugby in what is the last round of league action before the June break.
In what is one of the most fiercely contested seasons for many years, eight teams – from second to ninth – are within six points of each other, with only the table-topping Sharks enjoying some breathing space in being five points ahead of their nearest rival.
It means every Round 16 match has at least one team in a 'must-win' situation.
The mania is epitomised by the New Zealand conference, where four of the five teams are separated by just two points.
The Crusaders, who start the weekend's drama when they host the Western Force in Christchurch on Friday, are on 37 points – followed by the Hurricanes, Highlanders (both 36) and Chiefs (35).
Highlanders coach Jamie Joseph, speaking to the Otago Daily Times ahead of his team's trip to Brisbane for a Friday showdown with the Reds, said the goal is to keep your destiny in your own hands and not rely on other teams to do you any favours.
"In terms of the competition, and where we sit and who we are playing, the guys that win go forward, as we are playing each other," Joseph told the Dunedin-based newspaper.
Jan de Koning looks at Friday's matches!
Friday, May 30
Crusaders v Western Force
(AMI Stadium, Christchurch – Kick-off: 19.35; 07.35 GMT; 15.35 AWST)
These are two teams on top of their game and on hot streaks – the Crusaders with six wins in their last seven starts and the Western Force just one victory less from the same number of outings.
They are also separated by just one point, the Crusaders third on 37 and the Force a place and a point behind.
Crusaders coach Todd Blackadder hopes home crowd could be of some help to his team against what is the most improved team in the competition.
"We are up against another very tough team this week and this win is so important for both of us," Blackadder said.
"We need to make the most of every advantage we've got, and the home crowd is one of the big ones," the coach added.
Western Force coach Michael Foley also acknowledged the importance of going into the June break in a positive frame of mind on the back of an important victory.
"Being in the [top] six at the moment, it means that if we can control the things we can control, we should remain in the six," the Force coach told WAtoday.
He said they must "keep their eye on the ball" and not start thinking about the possibility of making the play-offs for the first time.
"The Crusaders are going to be a real challenge and then we finish the season with the Blues, Reds and the Brumbies, so we've got four tough games, with every one of those teams either chasing finals or with a point to prove.
"So we have to just keeping turning up and playing for each other and I think the rest will take care of itself."
Recent results:
2013: Force won 16-14, Perth
2012: Crusaders won 38-24, Christchurch
2011: Crusaders won 42-30, Perth
2010: Force won 24-16, Perth
2009: Crusaders and Force drew 23-all, Christchurch
2008: Crusaders won 29-24, Perth
Prediction: The Crusaders (32 tries) and Force (28) are well of the competition's pace setters when it comes to converting opportunities into five-pointers. The Hurricanes have scored 42 tries. The Force, however, are slightly better on defence than the Crusaders – making 87.5 percent of their tackles, as opposed to the 85.3 of the home team. The Crusaders have a clear edge in the set pieces – where they complete 88 percent of their scrums (the Force sit at 85 percent) and 88.4 percent of their line-outs (the Force are at 83.1). The factors that count in favour of the Crusaders winning are their homeground advantage, their set-piece superiority and the return of Kieran Read. We suggest it will be an arm-wrestle and the Crusaders to sneak in by five points.
Teams:
Crusaders: 15 Israel Dagg, 14 Johnny McNicholl, 13 Tom Taylor, 12 Ryan Crotty, 11 Nemani Nadolo, 10 Colin Slade, 9 Andy Ellis, 8 Kieran Read (captain), 7 Richie McCaw, 6 Jordan Taufua, 5 Samuel Whitelock, 4 Dominic Bird, 3 Nepo Laulala, 2 Ben Funnell, 1 Tim Perry.
Replacements: 16 Corey Flynn, 17 Wyatt Crockett, 18 Owen Franks, 19 Jimmy Tupou, 20 Luke Whitelock, 21 Willi Heinz, 22 Adam Whitelock, 23 Nafi Tuitavake.
Western Force: 15 Jayden Hayward, 14 Dane Haylett-Petty, 13 Patrick Dellit, 12 Chris Tuatara-Morrison, 11 Nick Cummins, 10 Sias Ebersohn, 9 Ian Prior, 8 Angus Cottrell, 7 Matt Hodgson (captain), 6 Brynard Stander, 5 Wilhelm Steenkamp, 4 Sam Wykes, 3 Kieran Longbottom, 2 Nathan Charles, 1 Pek Cowan.
Replacements: 16 Heath Tessmann, 17 Francois van Wyk, 18 Ollie Hoskins, 19 Adam Coleman, 20 Ryan Hodson, 21 Justin Turner, 22 Zack Holmes, 23 Dillyn Leyds.
Referee: Mike Fraser (New Zealand)
Assistant referees: Mike Lash (New Zealand), Richard Kelly (New Zealand)
TMO: Vinny Munro (New Zealand)
Reds v Highlanders
(Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane – Kick-off: 19.40; 09.40 GMT; 21.40 NZ time)
The Highlanders may not be as consistent as they would like, but last week's indoor thriller against the Crusaders showed just how dangerous they can be.
The debate over the last Highlanders try in a two-point defeat rages on.
However, if they show the same resoluteness in Brisbane on Friday the bottom-feeding, injury-riddled Reds are in for a long, very long day at the office.
Reds coach Richard Graham is well aware of the threat posed by the visitors.
"The Highlanders were unlucky not to get a result last weekend," Graham said of the Highlanders' 30-32 loss to the Crusaders.
"They play at a high pace and it'll be a very physical match," he added.
It has not been smooth sailing for the Highlanders this week, as the weather played havoc with their preparations.
Already with a tight six-day turnaround, the Highlanders were plagued by snow and ice in Dunedin – not to mention the absence of four players at the All Blacks' training camp.
However, coach Jamie Joseph thought it was a blessing in disguise.
"Sometimes you can over-train," Joseph told NZ Newswire.
"The bad weather has affected our training, but maybe that's not necessarily a bad thing."
Joseph warned against complacency, saying the Reds' last place on the standings is not a reflection on their potential.
"They've got a lot of things to prove," the Highlanders mentor said.
"They've had a disappointing season and I think their desire levels will be really high."
Recent results:
2013: Reds won 34-33, Dunedin
2012: Reds won 19-13, Brisbane
2010: Reds won 38-36, Brisbane
2009: Highlanders won 24-19, Ivercargill
2008: Reds won 22-16, Brisbane
2007: Highlanders won 33-17, Dunedin
Prediction: The Highlanders and Reds are pretty even when it comes to attack – with 31 and 29 tries respectively. Their tackle success rates are just as even – the Highlanders at 86.8 percent and the Reds at an even 86 percent. There is not much in the set pieces either, although the Reds' scrums have been a bit more successful – 88 percent completion rate, to the 86 percent of the Highlanders. However, it is worth noting that four of the Highlanders' defeats were bonus-point losses (finishing within seven points), while in two of those they also recorded a four-try bonus point. In contrast the Reds have not won since March and four of their six defeats in that losing streak were at home. We feel the Highlanders have the drive and confidence to pull off a win against a Reds team that lack composure and discipline – the Highlanders by 15 points.
Teams:
Reds: 15 Mike Harris, 14 Dom Shipperley, 13 Ben Tapuai, 12 Anthony Fainga'a, 11 Rod Davies, 10 Ben Lucas, 9 Will Genia, 8 Jake Schatz, 7 Beau Robinson, 6 Curtis Browning, 5 James Horwill (captain), 4 Rob Simmons, 3 Greg Holmes, 2 James Hanson, 1 James Slipper.
Replacements: 16 Andrew Ready, 17 Albert Anae, 18 Sef Faagase, 19 Dave McDuling, 20 Liam Gill, 21 Nick Frisby, 22 Samu Kerevi, 23 Jamie-Jerry Taulagi.
Highlanders: 15 Ben Smith (co-captain), 14 Richard Buckman, 13 Malakai Fekitoa, 12 Shaun Treeby, 11 Patrick Osborne, 10 Lima Sopoaga, 9 Aaron Smith, 8 Nasi Manu (co-captain), 7 Shane Christie, 6 Gareth Evans, 5 Joe Wheeler, 4 Jarrad Hoeata, 3 Ma'afu Fia, 2 Liam Coltman, 1 Kane Hames.
Replacements: 16 Ged Robinson, 17 Matias Diaz, 18 Chris King, 19 Tom Franklin, 20 Elliot Dixon, 21 Fumiaki Tanaka, 22 Hayden Parker, 23 Phil Burleigh.
Referee: Andrew Lees (Australia)
Assistant referees: Rohan Hoffmann (Australia), Graham Cooper (Australia)
TMO: Steve Leszczynski (Australia)
