S15 Preview: Round 16, Part Two
Derby: A game between local sports teams. That does not even begin to do justice to what Saturday will provide.
Yes, four of the five Round 16 games on May 31 are indeed contests between teams from the same countries (i.e. intra-conference derbies).
However, the significance of the matches and the consequence of defeats will give new meaning to the term 'desperate'.
It all starts when the two-time defending champion Chiefs hope to put their faltering campaign back on track when they host the high-flying Waratahs in New Plymouth.
The Blues will then look to play party poopers when they host another team with play-off aspirations, the Hurricanes, in Auckland.
The Brumbies are also keen to get back in the title race – after losing three of their last four matches and dropping out of the top six – when they host the unpredictable Rebels in Canberra.
The Lions could be the proverbial 'wet blanket' when they host the rejuvenated Bulls in Johannesburg.
The Sharks will also hope to avoid suffering the ignominy that befell them in their last home match when they host the Stormers in Durban.
Jan de Koning looks at Saturday's matches!
Saturday, May 31
Chiefs v Waratahs
(Yarrow Stadium, New Plymouth – Kick-off: 16.35; 04.35 GMT; 14.35 AEST)
The Chiefs seem to be missing a few key ingredients that made the championship material the past two years.
Top of that list is their leaky defence, most notably against set-piece play.
Assistant coach Wayne Smith, who has played a big role in winning back-to-back titles (2012 and 2013), admitted al is not well – especially since they let in six tries in a humbling defeat against the Hurricanes last week.
And the Australian conference-leading Waratahs are just as effective with ball in hand as the Hurricanes – their 37 tries second only to the Hurricanes' 42.
"The defence coach had a good talk to himself," Smith told the New Zealand Herald about his role in last week's humiliation.
"Hopefully he's doing better this week and the team will reflect that," Smith said.
"While [the Hurricanes] had some big, fast attackers, we went walkabout and didn't apply the system.
"We didn't have people in the right places, playing the right roles. So that's been the emphasis this week."
Waratahs coach Michael Cheika is expecting a strong backlash from the home team.
"We'll be fired up too," Cheika said.
"The issue isn't about how the opposition comes out, it's how we come out.
"In the past we've worried too much about how the opposition is going to play and we've reacted to that.
"If we want to be known as the hardest working team in the competition, this is the game to do it.
"If you're going to play a grand final against a team that works hard, it's going to be against the Chiefs. It's a real test for us around our attitude, getting down and doing the job and going up against the odds.
"Not many people will think we can get it done over there [New Zealand], so we've got to make sure that we think we can do it and try and get the job done the best we can."
Recent results:
2013: Waratahs won 25-20, Sydney
2012: Chiefs won 30-13, Hamilton
2011: Waratahs won 23-16, Sydney
2010: Waratahs won 46-19, Hamilton
2009: Waratahs won 11-7, Sydney
2008: Chiefs won 20-17, Hamilton
Prediction: The Waratahs have made more carries (133) and metres (518) per match than any other side. The Chiefs make more offloads per game (13.5) than any other side, though the Waratahs have averaged the most passes (164). The Chiefs' line-out success rate (78 percent) is the worst in the competition, while they have also averaged the most penalties conceded per game (13.2). Only the Sharks (18.1) have conceded fewer points per game than the Waratahs (19) so far. The Waratahs have won three of their last four against the Chiefs, but have lost the last eight straight in New Zealand. The last time the New South Wales outfit tasted victory across the ditch was in 2010. However, we feel the Chiefs will be knocked out of the race, with the Waratahs winning by eight points.
Teams:
Chiefs: 15 Tom Marshall, 14 Dwayne Sweeney, 13 Tim Nanai-Williams, 12 Andrew Horrell, 11 Asaeli Tikoirotuma, 10 Aaron Cruden (captain), 9 Tawera Kerr-Barlow, 8 Liam Squire, 7 Sam Cane, 6 Liam Messam, 5 Brodie Retallick, 4 Matt Symons, 3 Ben Tameifuna, 2 Nathan Harris, 1 Jamie Mackintosh.
Replacements: 16 Mahonri Schwalger, 17 Pauliasi Manu, 18 Josh Hohneck, 19 Michael Fitzgerald, 20 Tanerau Latimer, 21 Brad Weber, 22 Gareth Anscombe, 23 Bundee Aki.
Waratahs: 15 Israel Folau, 14 Alofa Alofa, 13 Adam Ashley-Cooper, 12 Kurtley Beale, 11 Rob Horne, 10 Bernard Foley, 9 Nick Phipps, 8 Wycliff Palu, 7 Michael Hooper, 6 Dave Dennis (captain), 5 Kane Douglas, 4 Jacques Potgieter, 3 Paddy Ryan, 2 Tatafu Polota Nau, 1 Benn Robinson.
Replacements 16 Hugh Roach, 17 Jeremy Tilse, 18 Sekope Kepu , 19 Will Skelton, 20 Stephen Hoiles, 21 Brendan McKibbin, 22 Jono Lance, 23 Matt Carraro.
Referee: Chris Pollock (New Zealand)
Assistant referees: Richard Kelly (New Zealand), Grant Stuart (New Zealand)
TMO: Ben Skeen (New Zealand)
Blues v Hurricanes
(Eden Park, Auckland – Kick-off: 17.35; 07.35 GMT)
The Blues are not enjoying the fact that they are propping up the New Zealand conference table and already out of the running for a play-off spot.
And Hurricanes coach Mark Hammett is well aware of the potential backlash awaiting his team in Auckland – where only one team has won this year, the table-topping Sharks.
"Oh, we haven't written them off, I'll tell you that right now," Hammett told the Wellington-based Dominion Post newspaper.
"We're deadly serious about the threats they pose [and] the fact that they probably had the better of the Sharks game, certainly possession-wise, and it was a close game."
Despite consecutive defeats to the Chiefs and Sharks in recent weeks – which has left the bottom-placed Blues 11 points adrift of the rest of the New Zealand Conference – Blues coach John Kirwan believes his side is not far away from clicking.
"We're [just] five percent off," Kirwan said in what was a veiled warning that there will be no freebies at Eden Park.
"The team is heading in the right direction, we're just not winning games – which has put us under pressure," he added.
In stark contrast to the struggling Blues, the Hurricanes have overcome an iffy start and are now one of the form outfits in the competition.
However, Hammett is cautious about any talk of favourites tags being attached to his team – despite their demolition job on the Chiefs last week.
"Look, you've got to be careful about that," the Hurricanes mentor said.
"We finished some opportunities and scored some really good set-piece tries and I think that probably exaggerated the score [against the Chiefs]," he told the Dominion Post.
"There's certainly still areas that we weren't overly happy with," Hammett added.
Recent results:
2014: Hurricanes won 39-20, Wellington
2013: Blues won 28-6, Auckland
2013: Blues won 34-20, Wellington
2012: Hurricanes won 35-19, Wellington
2012: Hurricanes won 26-25, Auckland
2011: Blues won 17-11, Wellington
2011: Blues won 41-17, Auckland
Prediction: The Hurricanes have scored more points (29.5) and tries (3.2) per game than any other team. They also top the charts for breaks, defenders beaten, ruck success and time in possession. The Hurricanes have scored nine tries from possessions which originated with kick-returns, only the Chiefs have scored more in this fashion (10). The Hurricanes' set pieces are far superior to that of the Chiefs – winning 88 percent of their scrums (the Blues sit at 83 percent) and 87.7 percent of their line-outs (Blues are at 83 percent). That, and their clinical finishing, is where the Hurricanes laid the platform for last week's fine win and where they will lay the platform for another victory this week – by 15 points.
Teams:
Blues: 15 Lolagi Visinia, 14 Frank Halai, 13 Pita Ahki, 12 Ma'a Nonu, 11 George Moala, 10 Ihaia West, 9 Bryn Hall, 8 Jerome Kaino, 7 Luke Braid, 6 Peter Saili, 5 Tom Donnelly, 4 Patrick Tuipulotu, 3 Charlie Faumuina, 2 Keven Mealamu, 1 Tony Woodcock.
Replacements: 16 James Parsons, 17 Ofa Tu'ungafasi, 18 Angus Ta'avao, 19 Hayden Triggs, 20 Steven Luatua, 21 Piri Weepu, 22 Simon Dickey, 23 Albert Nikoro.
Hurricanes: 15 Matt Proctor, 14 Cory Jane, 13 Conrad Smith (captain), 12 Alapati Leiua, 11 Julian Savea, 10 Beauden Barrett, 9 TJ Perenara, 8 Victor Vito, 7 Jack Lam, 6 Faifili Levave, 5 James Broadhurst, 4 Jeremy Thrush, 3 Jeffery Toomaga-Allen, 2 Dane Coles, 1 Ben Franks/Reggie Goodes.
Reserves: 16 Ash Dixon/Motu Matu'u/Goodes/Mike Kainga, 17 Chris Eves, 18 Reggie Goodes/Brendon Edmonds, 19 Brad Shields, 20 Ardie Savea, 21 Chris Smylie, 22 Tim Bateman, 23 James Marshall.
Referee: Garratt Williamson
Assistant referees: Brendon Pickerill (New Zealand), Mike Lash
TMO: Glenn Newman
Brumbies v Rebels
(GIO Stadium, Canberra – Kick-off: 19.40; 09.40 GMT)
Given the desperation in the Brumbies camp, this is going to be a sizzling Aussie derby.
After a great win in round six, the Rebels will be looking for a first-ever season double over the Brumbies – a result that will almost certainly derail the Brumbies' charge for a play-off spot.
The Brumbies are well aware of what is at stake and the risk of facing a team with nothing to lose.
"The Rebels have played the spoilers in the later stages of the last couple of seasons and will be focussed on knocking us out," Brumbies captain Ben Mowen said.
"Last time we played they managed to control the game and strangled us out of the contest.
"It's vital for us to make sure that doesn't happen again on Saturday."
The Brumbies have been overtaken at the top of the Aussie conference by both the Waratahs and the Western Force – after losing both their matches in South Africa.
Last week's demolition at the hands of the Bulls will have stung the most.
When the Rebels beat them a few weeks ago they were very much in control of the conference, but now they find themselves in a rut and with their season in the balance.
The Rebels are also coming off a bad loss and have just one win from their last four starts.
A trip to Canberra is always a stern assignment for any team.
The Brumbies haven't lost in the capital since Round One.
Recent results:
2014: Rebels won 32-24, Melbourne
2013: Brumbies won 39-17, Canberra
2013: Brumbies won 30-13, Melbourne
2012: Brumbies won 27-19, Melbourne
2012: Brumbies won 37-6, Canberra
2011: Brumbies won 32-17, Canberra
Prediction: The Brumbies have the lowest scrum (76 percent) and tackling (85 percent) success rates in Super Rugby. The Rebels' tackling success rate this season is 88.1 percent. The Rebels have forced their opponents into the least amount of time in possession (14 minutes and 32 seconds) this season. Scott Higginbotham has conceded more penalties than any other player this season (24), while Scott Fardy has produced the third-most infringements (19). Of the seven times the Brumbies and Rebels have faced off, the Victorians have managed two wins – the first (2011) and the last (2014), with neither of those in Canberra. It is a tough call, but we feel the Brumbies have enough class to edge it by less than 10 points.
Teams:
Brumbies: 15 Pat McCabe, 14 Henry Speight, 13 Tevita Kuridrani, 12 Christian Lealiifano, 11 Clyde Rathbone, 10 Matt Toomua, 9 Nic White, 8 Ben Mowen (captain), 7 Jarrad Butler, 6 Fotu Auelua, 5 Scott Fardy, 4 Sam Carter, 3 Ruan Smith, 2 Stephen Moore, 1 Scott Sio.
Replacements: 16 Josh Mann-Rea, 17 JP Smith, 18 Ben Alexander, 19 Leon Power, 20 Jordan Smiler, 21 Michael Dowsett, 22 Andrew Smith, 23 Jesse Mogg.
Rebels: 15 Jason Woodward, 14 Male Sau, 13 Tamati Ellison, 12 Mitch Inman, 11 Tom English, 10 Bryce Hegarty, 9 Ben Meehan, 8 Scott Higginbotham (captain), 7 Scott Fuglistaller, 6 Colby Fainga'a, 5 Luke Jones, 4 Cadeyrn Neville, 3 Laurie Weeks, 2 Pat Leafa, 1 Toby Smith.
Replacement: 16 Shota Horie, 17 Cruze Ah-Nau, 18 Paul Alo-Emile, 19 Hugh Pyle, 20 Jordy Reid, 21 Josh Holmes, 22 Jack Debreczeni, 23 Tom Kingston.
Referee: Steve Walsh (Australia)
Assistant referees: James Leckie (Australia), Will Houston (Australia)
TMO: Peter Marshall (Australia)
Lions v Bulls
(Ellis Park, Johannesburg – Kick-off: 17.05; 15.05 GMT)
In this trans-Jukskei derby one team is playing for pride, the other is chasing a spot in the play-offs.
While Lions mentor Johan Ackermann spoke of the need for his young charges to stay calm, Bulls counterpart Frans Ludeke made no secret of the fact that his team will remain in a 'must-win' mode to keep alive their dream of reaching the play-offs.
"We knew when we came back from tour, that we would have to win every remaining match – so are keen to keep on the winning track," Ludeke told rugby365, adding: "It will also be important for us to go into the [June Test] break with some momentum."
Ludeke described the Lions as a team that has played some "great" rugby this year, even though they are not always getting the results.
Back from a winless Australasian tour, the Lions will have taken heart from the fact that a few glaring blunders by match officials cost them possible victories against the Highlanders and Western Force.
And the Bulls have taken note of their talent, not their position on the scoreboard.
"Their forwards are always very competitive," the Bulls coach said, adding: "They are also a team that enjoys carrying the ball from anywhere on the field. The challenge for us will be to ensure our defence is accurate."
The Lions' scrum has been the most effective in the competition and they have been successful in putting the opposition under pressure.
"The last few seasons we have played each other it was always a very tough battle among the forwards. The key will be to create a solid foundation [in the set pieces] from which to attack."
Ackermann also spoke to the set pieces as being key, adding that the Bulls – with or without Victor Matfield – always have solid set pieces and are very physical.
The last time the two teams met, back in early March, the Bulls won the aerial battle.
"They have guys like Jurgen Visser, Akona [Ndungane] and Bjorn [Basson], who are all very good in the air," Ackermann told rugby365.
"We were not up to par in our match against them earlier in the season, so we will have to work hard to win the aerial battle."
Recent results:
2014: Bulls won 25-17, Pretoria
2012: Bulls won 37-20, Pretoria
2012: Bulls won 32-18, Johannesburg
2011: Bulls won 30-23, Pretoria
2011: Bulls won 24-20, Johannesburg
2010: Bulls won 51-11, Pretoria
Prediction: The Lions do have the best scrum success rate (92 percent) in the competition, but the worst breakdown success rate (91 percent). They have averaged the most line-outs won per game (13.8), but also the most lost (2.8). Their line-out success rate (82 percent) is the third lowest in the competition. The Bulls' line-out success rate (91 percent) is the best in Super Rugby 2014. Half of the Lions' 18 tries have come after the hour-mark this season. It will be tight, at least for the first hour, but then the Bulls will sneak ahead for a vital win – by 10 to 15 points.
Teams:
Lions: 15 Coenie van Wyk, 14 Courtnall Skosan, 13 Nicolaas Hanekom, 12 Alwyn Hollenbach, 11 Chrysander Botha, 10 Marnitz Boshoff, 9 Ross Cronje, 8 Warren Whiteley (captain), 7 Warwick Tecklenburg, 6 Jaco Kriel, 5 Franco Mostert, 4 Rudi Mathee, 3 Julian Redelinghuys, 2 Robbie Coetzee, 1 Schalk van der Merwe.
Replacements: 16 Armand van der Merwe, 17 Corne Fourie, 18 Ruan Dreyer, 19 Willie Britz , 20 Derick Minnie, 21 Francois de Klerk, 22 Elton Jantjies, 23 Deon van Rensburg.
Bulls: 15 Jurgen Visser, 14 Akona Ndungane, 13 JJ Engelbrecht, 12 Jan Serfontein, 11 Bjorn Basson, 10 Jacques-Louis Potgieter, 9 Francois Hougaard, 8 Jacques Engelbrecht, 7 Jacques du Plessis, 6 Jono Ross, 5 Grant Hattingh, 4 Flip van der Merwe (captain), 3 Marcel van der Merwe, 2 Callie Visagie, 1 Dean Greyling.
Replacements: 16 Bongi Mbonambi, 17 Werner Kruger, 18 Morné Mellett, 19 Paul Willemse, 20 Wimpie van der Walt), 21 Piet van Zyl, 22 Louis Fouché, 23 William-Small Smith.
Referee: Craig Joubert (South Africa)
Assistant referees: Lourens van der Merwe (South Africa), Sieg van Staden (South Africa)
TMO: Marius Jonker (South Africa)
Sharks v Stormers
(Kings Park, Durban – Kick-off: 19.10; 17.10 GMT)
The Sharks are not the current Super Rugby log-leaders for nothing. They displayed their championship credentials with a clean sweep on the New Zealand leg of their tour.
And they are up against a Stormers outfit with almost an entire team sidelined through injuries – players like Tiaan Liebenberg, Schalk Burger, Siyabonga Ntubeni, Eben Etzebeth, Steven Kitshoff and Jean de Villiers, to name but a few.
However, the biggest threat to the visitors is not so much their extensive injury list, but rather the quality of the players the Sharks will field.
Stormers coach Allister Coetzee admitted the Sharks' historic and dramatic win over the Crusaders in Christchurch a fortnight ago says a lot about their character and state of mind.
"They're a physical side who are strong at the breakdown and who boast a good kicking game," Coetzee said.
"This is, without doubt, our biggest challenge of the year."
The plaudits were flowing just as fast from inside the Durban-based franchise's camp.
Sharks Director of Rugby Jake White felt that the Stormers are beginning to hit the kind of form most expected them to display in the early parts of the season.
"If you had asked, at the start of the season, which teams were going to be dangerous, everyone would have backed the Stormers," White said.
"They didn't have a good run early on but they are definitely improving, they're playing better now and their confidence will be much higher now that it was three or four weeks ago."
White concluded that the Sharks are in for a big and brutal derby.
The Stormers' biggest challenge will be to overcome one of the competition's most feared sets of forwards.
"They have got a big pack, they have got one of the most physical packs in the competition, a pack that is loaded with international players," Coetzee said.
"However, one of our things we pride ourselves on is to turn up and be physical and that is what the game requires first and foremost.
"If you don't pitch up with physicality you will come off second best."
Recent results:
2013: Stormers won 22-15, Cape Town
2013: Sharks won 12-6, Durban
2012: Sharks won 26-19, Cape Town (semifinal)
2012: Sharks won 25-20, Durban
2012: Stormers won 15-12, Cape Town
2011: Stormers won 32-12, Cape Town
2011: Stormers won 16-6, Durban
Prediction: The Sharks have made (31) and been on the receiving end of (31) more kicks from hand per game than any other side. The Stormers’ goal-kicking success rate (66 percent) is the lowest this season. The Sharks have averaged the most turnovers conceded (17.8) per game this season. The Stormers have conceded fewer clean breaks per game (4.1) than any other team. Despite scoring just 23 tries themselves (joint fourth fewest) the Sharks have conceded fewer than any other side this season. The Sharks know how to win, they have showed that in the last fortnight. They know how to come from behind. It will not be a rout, but the Sharks should win by at least 10 points.
Teams:
Sharks: 15 SP Marais, 14 JP Pietersen, 13 Sibusiso Sithole, 12 Paul Jordaan, 11 Lwazi Mvovo, 10 Francois Steyn, 9 Cobus Reinach, 8 Willem Alberts, 7 Lubabalo Mtembu, 6 Marcell Coetzee, 5 Stephan Lewies, 4 Etienne Oosthuizen, 3 Jannie du Plessis, 2 Bismarck du Plessis (captain), 1 Tendai Mtawarira.
Replacements: 16 Kyle Cooper, 17 Dale Chadwick, 18 Lourens Adriaanse, 19 Ryan Kankowski, 20 Keegan Daniel, 21 Charl McLeod, 22 Tim Swiel, 23 Heimar Williams.
Stormers: 15 Jaco Taute, 14 Cheslin Kolbe, 13 Juan de Jongh, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Sailosi Tagicakibau, 10 Kurt Coleman, 9 Nic Groom, 8 Duane Vermeulen (captain), 7 Siya Kolisi, 6 Nizaam Carr, 5 Ruan Botha, 4 Michael Rhodes, 3 Pat Cilliers, 2 Stephan Coetzee, 1 Alistair Vermaak.
Replacements: 16 Michael Willemse, 17 Sithembiso Sithole, 18 Martin Dreyer, 19 Jean Kleyn, 20 Manuel Carizza, 21 Dylon Frylinck, 22 Demetri Catrakilis, 23 Peter Grant.
Referee: Jaco Peyper
Assistant referees: Stuart Berry, Stefan Breytenbach
TMO: Johan Greeff
