S15 Preview: Round 17

Super Rugby resumes on Friday – with just the Australasian teams in action, because South Africa face Scotland in a Test on Saturday.

However, the absence of the SA teams will not distract from the significance of  the Round 17 action, nor will the weekend's games lack entertainment value.

In fact the table-topping Sharks may well slip down the rankings dramatically – given that the Waratahs or Brumbies (they play each other), and the Crusaders are within a win of overtaking the men from Durban.

By the end of the weekend the Sharks could find themselves in third place – only because they will still be topping the SA conference.

The drama start on Friday when the fifth-placed Highlanders will be desperately defending their place in the play-off zone when they host the defending champion Chiefs (in eighth place).

We then hop across the Tasman Sea when the Rebels take on the Reds in Melbourne – a game where only pride and Aussie bragging rights are at stake.

Saturday's drama start with two New Zealand teams, both in the top six , going head-to-head – the third-placed Crusaders travelling to Wellington to play the sixth-placed Hurricanes.

Then it is the match of the weekend, a game that could go a long way towards not only deciding the Aussie conference, but probably also have an influence on the final global standings. The Waratahs (second) are at home to the Brumbies (fourth).

The weekend's action conclude with two teams desperate to stay in touch with the leading pack – the Western Force (seventh) hosting the Blues (10th) in Perth.

Jan de Koning looks at all the Round 17 action!

Friday, June 27

Highlanders v Chiefs

(Forsyth Barr Stadium, Dunedin – Kick-off: 19.35; 07.35 GMT)

Chiefs coach Dave Rennie described the game as "massive" and with good reason.

Defeat will mean it is the end of their reign as Super Rugby champions.

"We have prepared really well," Rennie said.

"We realize the importance of this fixture and from here on in every match is like a play-off."

The Highlanders, in a much better position and with their destiny very much still on their own hands, are determined not to repeat the mistakes that cost them so dearly in their loss to the Chiefs earlier in the season.

"I think we are both different teams from [the] Round Two [match]," Highlanders coach Jamie Joseph told the Otago Daily Times.

"I think in Round Two we beat ourselves a wee bit. I don't know if we actually believed we could beat them then, particularly in the dying parts of the game.

"Our season has gone a different way to the Chiefs and I'm not sure that [self believe] is a problem anymore.

"The guys are hungry and keen and certainly believe in their own abilities – but executing on the night will be the key."

The Highlanders began the season a rank outsider after finishing second to last in 2013.

They begin the final three weeks of the regular season in fifth place, three competition points ahead of the Chiefs.

"We've beaten some good teams and lost narrowly to some better teams," Joseph told the ODT, adding: "That's been part of our growth as a side which last year was second last in the competition and no one rated us."

Recent results:

2014: Chiefs won 21-19, Hamilton

2013: Chiefs won 19-7, Hamilton

2013: Chiefs won 41-27, Dunedin

2012: Chiefs won 27-21, Dunedin

2012: Highlanders won 23-19, Hamilton

2011: Chiefs won 20-7, Hamilton

2011: Highlanders won 23-13, Dunedin

Prediction: The Chiefs edge the Highlanders both in terms of tries scored and tackle success. In fact the Chiefs' currently have the best tackle success rate in the competition. However, the Chiefs' set pieces have been shocking – they are last in the line-out statistics and share mid-table with the Highlanders in terms of their scrum success. If the Highlanders can get an edge in the set pieces – and there is no reason they shouldn't – then they could edge an arm-wrestle by less than 10 points.

Teams:

Highlanders: 15 Ben Smith (co-captain), 14 Richard Buckman, 13 Malakai Fekitoa, 12 Shaun Treeby, 11 Patrick Osborne, 10 Lima Sopoaga, 9 Aaron Smith, 8 Nasi Manu (co-captain), 7 Shane Christie, 6 Elliot Dixon, 5 Joe Wheeler, 4 Tom Franklin, 3 Ma’afu Fia, 2 Brayden Mitchell, 1 Kane Hames.

Replacements: 16 Ged Robinson, 17 Matias Diaz, 18 Chris King, 19 Josh Bekhuis, 20 Lee Allan, 21 Fumiaki Tanaka, 22 Hayden Parker, 23 Phil Burleigh.

Chiefs: 15 Gareth Anscombe, 14 Dwayne Sweeney, 13 Robbie Fruean, 12 Bundee Aki, 11 Tom Marshall, 10 Aaron Cruden (captain), 9 Augustine Pulu, 8 Liam Squire, 7 Tanerau Latimer, 6 Liam Messam, 5 Brodie Retallick, 4 Michael Fitzgerald, 3 Ben Tameifuna, 2 Mahonri Schwalger, 1 Pauliasi Manu.

Replacements: 16  Nathan Harris, 17 Jamie Mackintosh, 18 Josh Hohneck, 19 Matt Symons, 20 Tevita Koloamatangi, 21 Tawera Kerr-Barlow, 22 Tim Nanai-Williams, 23 James Lowe.

Referee: Garratt Williamson (New Zealand)

Assistant referees: Kane McBride (New Zealand), Mike Lash (New Zealand)

TMO: Chris Wratt (New Zealand)

Rebels v Reds

(AAMI Park, Melbourne – Kick-off: 19.40; 09.40 GMT)

Round 17 will be celebrated as 'indigenous round' in Melbourne, with both the Rebels and the Reds wearing their limited edition jerseys.

However, in rugby terms there is little more than pride at stake. Neither team is still in the running to make the play-offs.

It is the final chance for the Rebels to show their home fans just how far they have come this season, despite limited victories.

The Melbourne crowd will have a couple of new Wallabies to celebrate – with Laurie Weeks and Luke Jones having made their international debuts during the Test series against France.

Scott Higginbotham, Luke Burgess, Tom English and Cadeyrn Neville were also involved in that series, with Higginbotham returning to international duty for the first time in two years and the other three all involved in training camps.

Japanese duo Shota Horie and Male Sau also return from a winning campaign, extending the Brave Blossoms' winning run to 10 in a row with victory over Italy in Tokyo over the weekend.

Reds coach Richard Graham said his team was looking forward to a fierce contest against the Rebels, as both sides look to improve their overall standings in the competition.

"We were very disappointed with the outcome of our previous encounter with the Rebels," Graham said of a loss in Brisbane in Week 14, back in May.

"We felt we needed to deliver a better performance in that match and the team are highly motivated to ensure we deliver something considerably different this time around.

"We have had a strong focus on improving our game throughout the past few weeks.

"The win against the Highlanders prior to the June Test break was important as it demonstrated to the squad that if we continue to work hard the results will come our way.

"Whilst a number of the boys have been involved in the Tests, the remainder of the squad have had a good mix of active rest, training and club rugby throughout June in preparation for this next block of games.

"Our focus this week is solely on a strong performance and getting the right outcome down in Melbourne."

Recent results:

2014: Rebels won 30-27, Brisbane

2013: Reds won 33-20, Brisbane

2013: Reds won 23-13, Melbourne

2012: Reds won 32-17, Melbourne

2012: Reds won 11-6, Brisbane

2011: Reds won 33-18, Melbourne

2011: Reds won 53-3, Brisbane

Prediction: The Rebels and Reds have not set the stage alight with their try-scoring prowess, while the Rebels can lay claim to being third on the table for most successful defence. discipline has also been an issue for the Reds, still one of the most penalised teams in the competition. The Rebels finally secured their first ever victory against the Reds, with that Round 14 win. The Rebels are likely to add to that historic win with a first-ever season double over the Reds – winning by between 10 and 15 points.

Teams:

Rebels: 15 Jack Debreczeni, 14 Jason Woodward,13 Tamati Ellison, 12 Mitch Inman , 11 Tom English, 10 Bryce Hegarty, 9 Luke Burgess, 8 Scott Higginbotham (captain), 7 Colby Fainga'a, 6 Sean McMahon, 5 Luke Jones, 4 Cadeyrn Neville, 3 Laurie Weeks, 2 Pat Leafa, 1 Toby Smith.

Replacements: 16 Shota Horie, 17 Cruze Ah-Nau, 18 Paul Alo-Emile, 19 Hugh Pyle, 20 Scott Fuglistaller, 21 Nic Stirzaker, 22 Telusa Veainu, 23 Tom Kingston.

Reds: 15 Mike Harris, 14 Rod Davies, 13 Ben Tapuai, 12 Anthony Fainga'a, 11 Dom Shipperley, 10 Ben Lucas, 9 Nick Frisby, 8 Jake Schatz, 7 Beau Robinson, 6 Curtis Browning, 5 James Horwill (captain), 4 Rob Simmons, 3 Greg Holmes, 2 James Hanson, 1 James Slipper.

Replacements: 16 Saia Fainga'a, 17 Albert Anae, 18 Ben Daley, 19 Dave McDuling, 20 Liam Gill, 21 Samuela Kerevi, 22 Jamie-Jerry Taulagi .

Referee: Angus Gardner (Australia)

Assistant referees: Matt O'Brien (Australia), Damien Mitchelmore (Australia)

TMO: George Ayoub (Australia)

Saturday, June 28

Hurricanes v Crusaders

(Westpac Stadium, Wellington – Kick-off: 19.35; 07.35 GMT)

The Hurricanes know they have to in both their remaining games – the Crusaders on Saturday and the Chiefs in Hamilton a week later – to keep alive their play-off hopes.

The Hurricanes and the Crusaders will both have a host of All Blacks returning from the three-week international period, in which leading players from both squads played in the All Blacks' three-Test series clean sweep over England.

And the Hurricanes must overcome the Crusaders without centre and captain Conrad Smith, whose thumb injury in the Dunedin Test has ended his Super Rugby campaign.

The Hurricanes and the Crusaders are meeting for the second time this year, with the Hurricanes winning their last match 29-26 in Christchurch in April.

The Hurricanes are coming off a 24-37 defeat to the Blues at Eden Park in their last match on May 31, while the Crusaders beat the Force 30-7 in Christchurch to register their fourth win their previous five matches.

With both sides chasing play-off spots, Saturday's encounter looms as a crucial one in the New Zealand conference, which sees a series of local derby matches over the next three weeks.

Heading into the last part of the round-robin season, the Hurricanes are third in the New Zealand Conference on 37 points and must finish ahead of three of their four local rivals.

The New Zealand conference is headed by the Crusaders on 41, followed by the Highlanders on 38, the Hurricanes, the Chiefs on 35 and the Blues on 31.

With several All Blacks backing up and all other players fresh and raring to go again, Saturday's Super Rugby match promises to be high quality and super-charged.

Recent results:

2014: Hurricanes won 29-26, Christchurch

2013: Crusaders won 25-17, Christchurch

2013: Hurricanes won 29-28, Wellington

2012: Hurricanes won 23-22, Christchurch

2012: Crusaders won 42-14, Wellington

2011: Crusaders won 16-9, Wellington

Prediction: The Hurricanes and the Crusaders are the competition's two leading attacking teams. Both are averaging 29 points per game, the Hurricanes having scored 407 points in 14 matches and the Crusaders 381 points in 13 fixtures. The Hurricanes are the tournament's leading try scorers with 46 team tries, with the Crusaders having dotted down 35 times. The Hurricanes have made the most clean breaks of any team (135), ahead of the Waratahs (117) and then the Crusaders (105), and have also beaten the most defenders of any team (324), compared to the Crusaders (216). The Crusaders have shown their championship potential in the last month before the break and are likely to record a win that could shatter the Hurricanes' play-off dream – the Crusaders by about five points.

Teams:

Hurricanes:  15 Matt Proctor, 14 Cory Jane, 13 Tim Bateman, 12 Alapati Leiua, 11 Julian Savea, 10 Beauden Barrett, 9 TJ Perenara, 8 Victor Vito, 7 Ardie Savea, 6 Brad Shields, 5 Blade Thomson, 4 Jeremy Thrush (captain), 3 Jeffery Toomaga-Allen, 2 Dane Coles, 1 Ben Franks.

Replacements: 16 Motu Matu’u/Reggie Goodes, 17 Chris Eves, 18 Reggie Goodes/Brendon Edmonds, 19 James Broadhurst, 20 Jack Lam, 21 Chris Smylie, 22 Hadleigh Parkes, 23 James Marshall.

Referee: Mike Fraser (New Zealand)

Assistant referees: Brendon Pickerill (New Zealand), Richard Kelly (New Zealand)

TMO: Aaron Paterson (New Zealand)

Waratahs v Brumbies

(ANZ Stadium, Sydney – Kick-off: 19.40; 09.40 GMT)

There is now doubting the importance of this match – with not only Australian conference honours at stake, but the likelihood of topping the global table heading into the home stretch before the play-offs.

The second-placed Waratahs are two points adrift of the table-topping Sharks, but with a game in hand on the South Africans. They are also three points ahead of the Brumbies, and the Tahs also have a game in hand on their ACT-based arch rivals.

Victory in Sydney can all but clinch the Australian conference for the Tahs this weekend.

With three rounds remaining before the play-offs, the Waratahs' destiny is in their own hands.

Not surprising then to hear Waratahs and Wallaby utility Kurtley Beale speaking of the need to get into the right frame of mind.

"Physically we've done all the work, now it's just up in the mind," Beale told the Sydney Morning Herald.

"Having that attitude each week, turning up on time, doing the little things to get us in a good frame of mind for each game. It starts from the Monday all the way to the captain's run and game.

"From my experience, getting myself mentally right will help us achieve the goal we want to achieve."

That means taking the lessons from their 28-23 loss to the Brumbies more than three months ago and using them to cement their spot above last year's finalists.

The Brumbies come into the game having lost a host of senior players – hooker Stephen Moore (knee), Siliva Siliva (ankle and knee), Josh Mann-Rea (hamstring) and Matt Toomua (groin) all sidelined with injuries.

Recent results:

2014: Brumbies won 28-23, Canberra

2013: Waratahs won 28-22, Sydney

2013: Brumbies won 35-6, Canberra

2012: Brumbies won 19-15, Sydney

2012: Brumbies won 23-6, Canberra

2011: Waratahs won 41-7, Sydney

2011: Waratahs won 29-22, Canberra

Prediction: The Brumbies (41) and Waratahs (40) are right up there with the Hurricanes (46) as the competition's most prolific try-scorers. However, the Brumbies' defence has been as leaky as sieve at times – a tackle success rate of just 85 percent seeing them sitting rock bottom in that department. The Brumbies are much more effective (second best at 90 percent) in the line-outs, but bottom in the scrums – although the Waratahs are barely better, sitting second from last. The Waratahs have been the more consistent of the two teams and will sneak victory in a brutal arm-wrestle, by less than 10 points.

Teams:

Waratahs: 15 Israel Folau, 14 Alofa Alofa, 13 Adam Ashley-Cooper, 12 Kurtley Beale, 11 Rob Horne, 10 Bernard Foley, 9 Nick Phipps, 8 Wycliff Palu, 7 Michael Hooper, 6 Dave Dennis (captain), 5 Kane Douglas, 4 Jacques Potgieter, 3 Sekope Kepu, 2 Tatafu Polota Nau, 1 Benn Robinson.

Replacements – from: 16 Tolu Latu, 17 Jeremy Tilse, 18 Paddy Ryan, 19 Will Skelton, 20 Stephen Hoiles, 21 Brendan McKibbin, 22 Jono Lance, 23 Taqele Naiyaravoro, 24 Cam Crawford.

Brumbies: 15 Jesse Mogg 14 Henry Speight, 13 Tevita Kuridrani, 12 Andrew Smith, 11 Robbie Coleman, 10 Christian Lealiifano, 9 Nic White, 8 Ben Mowen, 7 Jarrad Butler, 6 Jordan Smiler, 5 Leon Power, 4 Scott Fardy, 3 Ben Alexander, 2 Ruaidhri Murphy, 1 Scott Sio.

Replacements: 16 Luke Holmes, 17 Jean-Pierre Smith, 18 Ruan Smith, 19 Jack Whetton, 20 Fotu Auelua, 21 Michael Dowsett, 22 Lionel Cronje, 23 Clyde Rathbone.

Referee: Steve Walsh (Australia)

Assistant referees: Andrew Lees (Australia), Ian Smith (Australia)

TMO: Peter Marshall (Australia)

Western Force v Blues

(nib Stadium, Perth – Kick-off: 19.45; 11.45 GMT; 21.45 NZ time)

The Western Force, the surprise package of 2014, are still very much in the hunt for a play-off spot.

They can give their chances a significant boost if they knock over a Blues team that has not won away from home since February last year – 13 consecutive defeats on the road.

Victory by the Force over the Blues will set up a crunch final-round clash for the Perth-based franchise with the Brumbies in Canberra – where they may just require one, or possibly even two, bonus points to qualify for the play-offs.

Crucially, they already have eight wins – one more than both the Hurricanes and Highlanders – as the number of victories is the first measure used to separate teams that finish on equal points.

The Blues still have a mathematical chance of reaching the play-offs.

However, their dreadful away record in the past two years may suggest their race is run.

The long trip to Perth is likely to be the beginning of the end for the Blues, who are in 10th place and with matches against the Force, Crusaders and Chiefs to come.

A boost is the form of All Blacks Tony Woodcock, Jerome Kaino, Ma'a Nonu and Patrick Tuipulotu will give them hope of an upset.

Recent results:

2012: Blues won 32-9, Auckland

2011: Force and Blues drew 22-all, Perth

2010: Blues won 38-17, Auckland

2009: Blues won 25-19, Perth

2008: Force won 27-17, Albany

2007: Blues won 33-6, Perth

Prediction: The Blues (38) have a far better try-scoring record than the Force (29), but they have conceded as many as they scored (38). The Force, in contrast, have leaked just 25 tries. The Force and Blues both hover around the 83 percent mark in line-out success and 84 percent in scrums. The Force's real success has been their collective (team) effort when the chips are down. That is likely to secure them a win of more than 10 points over the Blues.

Teams:

Western Force:  15 Jayden Hayward, 14 Dane Haylett-Petty, 13 Marcel Brache, 12 Chris Tuatara-Morrison, 11 Nick Cummins, 10 Sias Ebersohn, 9 Alby Mathewson, 8 Ben McCalman, 7 Matt Hodgson (captain), 6 Hugh McMeniman, 5 Adam Coleman, 4 Sam Wykes, 3 Kieran Longbottom, 2 Nathan Charles, 1 Pek Cowan.

Replacments: 16 Heath Tessmann, 17 Tetera Faulkner, 18 Oliver Hoskins, 19 Wilhelm Steenkamp, 20 Brynard Stander, 21 Ian Prior, 22 Zack Holmes, 23 Solomoni Rasolea

Blues:  15 Lolagi Visinia, 14 Frank Halai, 13 Pita Ahki, 12 Ma'a Nonu, 11 George Moala, 10 Ihaia West, 9 Bryn Hall, 8 Jerome Kaino, 7 Luke Braid (captain), 6 Steven Luatua, 5 Patrick Tuipulotu, 4 Tom Donnelly, 3 Charlie Faumuina/ Angus Ta'avao, 2 Keven Mealamu, 1 Tony Woodcock.

Replacements: 16 James Parsons, 17 Angus Ta'avao/ Tom McCartney, 18 Ofa Tu'ungafasi, 19 Hayden Triggs, 20 Peter Saili, 21 Piri Weepu, 22 Francis Saili, 23 Tevita Li.

Referee: Rohan Hoffmann (Australia)

Assistant referees: James Leckie (Australia), Michael Hogan (Australia)

TMO: Steve Leszczynski (Australia)