S15 Preview: Round 17, Part One

It's the penultimate round of Super Rugby's regular season and on Friday there are two massive derbies with duels between some of the top gunslingers.

On Friday there is some heated action with the big boys colliding in matches that could make or break their seasons and in New Zealand the table-topping Chiefs host the mighty Crusaders.

Next up in Brisbane it's the defending champion Reds in action against the hardy Highlanders in what could also be a crucial encounter at this late stage of the season.

Finally, in arguably the biggest clash of the entire round, the Bulls travel to Durban for their match in the Shark Tank.

It's getting crazy up in here so hang onto your hats…

Friday, July 6:

Chiefs v Crusaders

(Waikato Stadium, Hamilton – kick-off: 19.35; 07.35 GMT)

The Chiefs have already secured a play-off spot, but their aiming high and want home advantage in the semifinals and, ultimately, the final.

The Waikato franchise will also have a point to prove that they are the top dogs in New Zealand this season, and what better way to do that than with a victory over the Crusaders?

The Crusaders, on the other hand, are reeling after their defeat to the Hurricanes last weekend and could be in danger of missing out on the top six with a loss on Friday.

With everything to play for Crusaders boss Todd Blackadder has rushed Dan Carter, Kieran Read and Israel Dagg back into a ferocious looking starting XV.

The Chiefs pack has done an excellent job this season and this will be their biggest tests against a battle-hardened Crusaders scrum who will be out for blood.

Both backlines are littered with game-breakers and any one of Carter, Aaron Cruden, Sonny Bill Williams, Robbie Fruean, Robbie Robinson or Dagg could make the difference.

There is also the intriguing matchup at the breakdowns where the apprentice must challenge the master, with Sam Cane and Richie McCaw going toe-to-toe as the two opensides.

This one is going to be a cracker!

Recent results:

2012: Chiefs won 24-19, Napier

2011: Crusaders won 25-19, Napier

2011: Crusaders won 34-16, Tauranga

2010: Crusaders won 26-19, Hamilton

2009: Crusaders won 19-13, Christchurch

rugby365.com Prediction: Incredibly tough to call as the Chiefs have home ground advantage and plenty of momentum, but the Crusaders have a point to prove and arguably more to play for. Crusaders to turn it on and edge a narrow win.

Teams:

Chiefs: 15 Robbie Robinson, 14 Tim Nanai-Williams, 13 Andrew Horrell, 12 Sonny Bill Williams, 11 Asaeli Tikoirotuma, 10 Aaron Cruden, 9 Tawera Kerr-Barlow, 8 Alex Bradley, 7 Sam Cane, 6 Liam Messam, 5 Brodie Retallick, 4 Craig Clarke (captain), 3 Ben Tameifuna, 2 Mahonri Schwalger, 1 Sona Taumalolo.

Replacements: 16 Hika Elliot, 17 Toby Smith, 18 Romana Graham, 19 Tanerau Latimer, 20 Brendon Leonard, 21 Jackson Willison, 22 Lelia Masaga.

Crusaders: 15 Israel Dagg, 14 Adam Whitelock, 13 Robbie Fruean, 12 Ryan Crotty, 11 Zac Guildford, 10 Dan Carter, 9 Andy Ellis, 8 Kieran Read, 7 Richie McCaw (captain), 6 George Whitelock, 5 Samuel Whitelock, 4 Luke Romano, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Corey Flynn, 1 Ben Franks.

Replacements: 16 Quentin MacDonald, 17 Wyatt Crockett, 18 Tom Donnelly , 19 Matt Todd, 20 Willi Heinz, 21 Tom Taylor, 22 Sean Maitland.

Referee: Steve Walsh (Australia)

Assistant referees: Garratt Williamson (New Zealand), Glen Jackson (New Zealand)

TMO: Bryce Lawrence (New Zealand)

Reds v Highlanders

(Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane – kick-off: 19.40; 09.40 GMT)

The Reds have managed to get their season back on track and are still in the running at this late stage after the wheels came off at the start of the campaign.

The Highlanders suffered a crippling blow with their defeat last weekend to the Chiefs and a place in the top six is a real long-shot for the men from Dunedin.

Neither side can afford a loss as that would make qualification for the play-offs impossible for the Highlanders and highly unlikely for the Reds, so it's backs against the wall time for everybody concerned.

The Highlanders haven't always had the best luck on the road, but they did last beat the Reds in Brisbane in 2005 and are the kind of team that certainly won't die wondering.

The Reds will be boosted by their home support and they have some lofty expectations to live up to following their success last year.

All the success the Highlanders have enjoyed this year has been built on their ability to flood the breakdown and boss the possession stats, so Reds flanks Jake Schatz and Beau Robinson will be crucial to winning the ball on the ground.

With Quade Cooper back at flyhalf the whole Reds backline looks more settled, although without Digby Ioane they still lack somebody to consistently get them over the gainline.

While the Highlanders often play a forward driven gameplan watch out for Hosea Gear in the backs, as he has been a steamroller in the last few weeks and Dom Shipperley will need to watch him closely.

Recent results:

2010: Reds won 38-36, Brisbane

2009: Highlanders won 24-19, Ivercargill

2008: Reds won 22-16, Brisbane

2007: Highlanders won 33-17, Dunedin

2006: Reds won 22-16, Townsville

rugby365.com Prediction: The Highlanders have more firepower to dominate the physical encounters and without James Horwill the Reds scrum looks vulnerable. Highlanders to take it by about eight points.

Teams:

Reds: 15 Luke Morahan, 14 Dom Shipperley, 13 Anthony Faingaa, 12 Mike Harris, 11 Chris F'Sautia, 10 Quade Cooper, 9 Will Genia (captain), 8 Scott Higginbotham, 7 Beau Robinson, 6 Jake Schatz, 5 Adam Wallace-Harrison, 4 Rob Simmons, 3 James Slipper, 2 Saia Faingaa, 1 Greg Holmes.

Replacements: 16 James Hanson, 17 Ben Daley, 18 Radike Samo, 19 Jarrad Butler, 20 Ben Lucas, 21 Ben Tapuai, 22 Nick Frisby.

Highlanders: 15 Ben Smith, 14 Kade Poki, 13 Siale Piutau, 12 Phil Burleigh, 11 Hosea Gear, 10 Mike Delany, 9 Jimmy Cowan, 8 Nasi Manu, 7 James Haskell, 6 Adam Thomson, 5 Nick Crosswell, 4 Josh Bekhuis, 3 Ma'afu Fia, 2 Andrew Hore, 1 Jamie Mackintosh (captain).

Replacements: 16 Jason Rutledge, 17 Chris King, 18 Jarrad Hoeata, 19 Tim Boys, 20 Aaron Smith, 21 Chris Noakes, 22 Kenny Lynn.

Referee: Jonathan Kaplan (South Africa)

Assistant referees: Angus Gardner (Australia), James Leckie (Australia)

TMO: Steve Lesczcynski (Australia)

Sharks v Bulls

(Kings Park, Durban – kick-off 19.10; 17.10 GMT)

This is the big one in South Africa this weekend, as two heavyweights collide in what should be an epic encounter.

There are Springboks all over the place in the two teams that are both in the running for the title this year. There is no shortage of memorable Super Rugby clashes between the two, with the Sharks winning a bruising decisive match to reach the play-offs last year, while the Bulls snatched a last-gasp victory when they met in the 2007 Final.

The Sharks desperately need a win following their shock defeat to the Lions just before the June break, but they go into the match without star duo Willem Alberts and Patrick Lambie. However, there are still several key internationals in their line-up that includes Frans Steyn.

The Bulls bullied the Cheetahs last week in a crunching encounter and will look to build on that momentum, while the Sharks come in almost cold having not played together for more than a month.

Interestingly both teams employ similar gameplans using big ball carriers to crash the ball up and build through the forwards, while the kicking games of the halfback parings are vital to gain valuable territory.

The key areas could be who wins the physical battle at the breakdowns to get quick ball out on attack, and in the midfield where Frans Steyn and Wynand Olivier square-off.

Recent results:

2012: Bulls won 18-13, Pretoria

2011: Sharks won 26-23, Pretoria

2011: Bulls won 32-23, Durban

2010: Bulls won 27-19, Pretoria

2009: Bulls won 27-26, Durban

rugby365.com Prediction: Expect some massive tackles and some strong defensive work at a Test-match intensity and the result could come down to the goal-kickers or one moment of magic for a decisive try. There is nothing in it and you might as well flip a coin when calling this one. Bulls to snatch it by three.

Teams:

Sharks: 15 Louis Ludik, 14 JP Pietersen, 13 Tim Whitehead, 12 Francois Steyn, 11 Lwazi Mvovo, 10 Frederic Michalak, 9 Charl McLeod, 8 Ryan Kankowski, 7 Marcell Coetzee, 6 Keegan Daniel (captain), 5 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 4 Anton Bresler, 3 Jannie du Plessis, 2 Bismarck du Plessis, 1 Tendai Mtawarira.

Replacements: 16 Craig Burden, 17 Wiehahn Herbst, 18 Jandré Marais, 19 Jean Deysel, 20 Cobus Reinach, 21 Meyer Bosman, 22 Odwa Ndungane.

Bulls: 15 Zane Kirchner, 14 Akona Ndungane, 13 JJ Engelbrecht, 12 Wynand Olivier, 11 Bjorn Basson, 10 Mornè Steyn, 9 Francois Hougaard, 8 Pierre Spies (captain), 7 Jacques Potgieter, 6 Dewald Potgieter, 5 Juandrè Kruger, 4 Flip van der Merwe, 3 Werner Kruger, 2 Chiliboy Ralepelle, 1 Dean Greyling.

Replacements: 16 Willie Wepener, 17 Frik Kirsten, 18 Wilhelm Steenkamp, 19 CJ Stander, 20 Jano Vermaak, 21 Louis Fouchè, 22 Francois Venter.

Referee: Jaco Peyper (South Africa)

Assistant referees: Marius Jonker (South Africa), Tiaan Jonker (South Africa)

TMO: Shaun Veldsman (South Africa)

By Timmy Hancox