S15 Preview: Round 19, Part One
It is not exactly High noon at the OK Corral, but there will be a series of shoot-outs of epic proportions looming as Super Rugby enters the final weekend of league action.
The weekend's drama starts when the Chiefs (eighth) face off against the Blues a spot below. The Chiefs can finish the weekend as high as fourth, if they win, while the Blues could sneak into sixth place with a victory.
Next up on Friday will be the Aussie derby involving the Brumbies and Western Force – both of whom can finish as high as fourth, depending on their own success and some other results.
Friday's action is completed when the Bulls host the Rebels in the only match of the day where both sides are already out of the running.
After the completion of the Regular Season, a three-week play-off series will take place involving the three conference winners and the three best-placed 'wildcards', irrespective of the conference in which they are based.
The teams ranked one and two have a bye during the first week of the play-offs with the teams ranked three to six taking part in qualifiers to secure a place in the semifinals. Teams one and two will host home semifinals against the two qualifier winners.
Tie breakers – if sides are tied on competition points, the steps to break the tie are:
* Most wins from all matches
* Highest aggregate points difference
* Most tries
* Highest aggregate try difference
* Coin toss
Jan de Koning takes a look at Friday's games!
Friday, July 11
Blues v Chiefs
(Eden Park, Auckland – Kick-off: 19.35; 07.35 GMT)
Win and stay alive. It is that simple.
For the two-time defending champion Chiefs victory at Eden Park is not going to come easy.
The Blues are unbeaten in six matches at home this season, although the Chiefs will be confident with three straight wins at New Zealand's largest stadium in recent times.
A defeat, even with a bonus point, will end the Chiefs' campaign to become just the second ever franchise to win three straight trophies.
The Blues need a bonus point victory and a winning margin of 39 points to eliminate the Chiefs and overtake the Hurricanes, who are five competition points above them.
If the Force win but the Brumbies register a losing bonus point, then even a Blues triumph might not be enough to reach the top six.
Despite this daunting challenge Blues coach John Kirwan is optimistic about his team's chances.
"I think we've improved as a team this year," Kirwan said.
"We're getting that consistency and we're still learning what it takes to be a winning franchise. If there's one team in this competition that can do it on Friday it's us.
"We scored five tries in 25 minutes against the Lions and if things bounce our way we can score points like no other team and when we're confident we're really scary. We got our bonus point after 18 minutes against the Force.
"Obviously this is a different team we're coming up against on Friday but there's a lot for us to play for.
"The boys are very disappointed that we're not in the play-offs automatically, we're one point away from just having to just win the game but we're up for the challenge."
The Chiefs are equally optimistic about achieving the three-peat of Super Rugby titles.
"Hopefully we can get that one more title before I go," said centre Bundee Aki, who is heading to Irish provincial side Connacht after the season is completed.
"There's always been a strong belief here. A lot of people have been writing us off in the last couple of weeks, saying we won't be able to make it and that our season would probably be finished by now.
"But within the boys there is a strong belief that we can keep going and take it all the way; I strongly believe that and certainly have faith in our brothers that we can put it out on the field."
Recent results:
2014: Chiefs won 32-20, Hamilton
2013: Chiefs won 26-16, Auckland
2013: Chiefs won 23-16, Mount Maunganui
2012: Chiefs won 41-34, Auckland
2012: Chiefs won 29-14, Hamilton
2011: Chiefs won 16-11, Auckland
2011: Blues won 16-13, Hamilton
Prediction: The Blues (45) and Chiefs (43) are both capable of amassing tries. Their tackle success rate also rate up there at No.1 (Chiefs) and No.3 (Blues). However, their set pieces are both well below average – the Blues second worst in scrum completion and the Chiefs holding that spot in the line-out success rate. The Chiefs' discipline has also been poor, with seven yellow cards – joint fourth. We feel the Chiefs' run is about to come to an abrupt end in Auckland – the Blues to win by 15 points or so, but won't make it into the play-offs either.
Teams:
Blues: 15 Charles Piutau, 14 Lolagi Visinia/George Moala, 13 Francis Saili, 12 Ma'a Nonu, 11 Tevita Li, 10 Ihaia West, 9 Bryn Hall, 8 Jerome Kaino, 7 Brendon O'Connor, 6 Steven Luatua, 5 Tom Donnelly, 4 Patrick Tuipulotu, 3 Charlie Faumuina, 2 Keven Mealamu (captain), 1 Sam Prattley.
Replacements: 16 James Parsons, 17 Ofa Tu'ungafasi, 18 Angus Ta'avao, 19 Hayden Triggs, 20 Peter Saili, 21 Jamison Gibson-Park, 22 Jackson Willison, 23 George Moala/Albert Nikoro.
Chiefs: 15 Tom Marshall, 14 Asaeli Tikoirotuma, 13 Tim Nanai-Williams, 12 Bundee Aki, 11 James Lowe, 10 Aaron Cruden (captain), 9 Tawera Kerr-Barlow, 8 Liam Squire, 7 Tanerau Latimer, 6 Liam Messam, 5 Brodie Retallick, 4 Mike Fitzgerald, 3 Ben Tameifuna, 2 Mahonri Schwalger, 1 Jamie Mackintosh.
Replacement: 16 Nathan Harris, 17 Pauliasi Manu, 18 Nick Barrett, 19 Matt Symons, 20 Tevita Koloamatangi, 21 Augustine Pulu, 22 Gareth Anscombe, 23 Dwayne Sweeney.
Referee: Glen Jackson (New Zealand)
Assistant referees: Nick Briant (New Zealand), Brendan Pickerill (New Zealand)
TMO: Ben Skeen (New Zealand)
Brumbies v Western Force
(GIO Stadium, Canberra – Kick-off: 19.40; 09.40 GMT)
There is an air of desperation in Canberra, as the Brumbies look to end a decade-long drought.
Despite finishing runners up last year, the Brumbies are keen to add to their two previous titles – 2001 and 2004.
The ACT-based franchise need a victory against the Western Force and can finish as high as fourth.
A loss will knock the side out, unless they take at least one bonus point and the Blues beat the Chiefs, which would be enough to sneak in to sixth spot.
Two losing bonus points could, by a quirk of maths, knock the Highlanders out as well – unless they defeat the Crusaders.
The equation is simple for the Force. If they win in Canberra for the first time since 2011, they will create Western Australian history and play in the knock-out stages of Super Rugby for the first time.
Defeat could be fatal, although they could still sneak in with losing bonus point(s) on account of holding the primary tie-breaker (total wins) over the Hurricanes.
The Brumbies will farewell 17 players and staff, headed by captain Ben Mowen, when their season comes to and end.
However, the skipper said there was no room for sentiment if the team wanted to break a decade-long championship drought.
"Being near enough doesn't get you a piece of silverware," Mowen told the Canberra Times.
"This group deserves something substantial for the work we have put in. I honestly believe there is a real opportunity in the next couple of weeks to give ourselves a crack of opening that up."
Recent results:
2014: Brumbies won 27-14, Perth
2013: Force won 21-15, Perth
2013: Brumbies won 41-7, Canberra
2012: Brumbies won 28-17, Perth
2012: Brumbies won 19-17, Canberra
2011: Brumbies and Force drew 13-all, Perth
2011: Force won 27-19, Canberra
Prediction: The Brumbies average more points per game this season (24.3) than the Force (21.2), despite their poor goal-kicking success rate (64 percent), the lowest ratio in the competition. Worryingly for the Brumbies, they also possess the lowest tackling (85 percent) and scrum (76 percent) success rates; given the Force have a decent set-piece. The Brumbies will find some resolve and end the Force's dream of a first-ever play-off appearance. Brumbies by 10 or more.
Teams:
Brumbies: 15 Jesse Mogg, 14 Henry Speight, 13 Tevita Kuridrani, 12 Christian Lealiifano, 11 Clyde Rathbone, 10 Matt Toomua, 9 Nic White, 8 Ben Mowen (captain), 7 Jarrad Butler, 6 Scott Fardy, 5 Leon Power, 4 Sam Carter, 3 Ben Alexander, 2 Josh Mann-Rea, 1 Scott Sio.
Replacements: 16 Ruaidhri Murphy, 17 Ruan Smith, 18 JP Smith, 19 Fotu Auelua, 20 Tom McVerry, 21 Michael Dowsett, 22 Joe Tomane, 23 Pat McCabe.
Western Force: 15 Jayden Hayward, 14 Dane Haylett-Petty, 13 Solomoni Rasolea, 12 Chris Tuatara-Morrison, 11 Nick Cummins, 10 Zack Holmes, 9 Ian Prior, 8 Ben McCalman, 7 Matt Hodgson (captain), 6 Brynard Stander, 5 Wilhelm Steenkamp, 4 Sam Wykes, 3 Kieran Longbottom, 2 Nathan Charles, 1 Pek Cowan.
Replacements: 16 Heath Tessmann, 17 Tetera Faulkner, 18 Oliver Hoskins, 19 Adam Coleman, 20 Chris Alcock, 21 Alby Mathewson, 22 Luke Burton, 23 Dillyn Leyds/Sias Ebersohn.
Referee: Steve Walsh (Australia)
Assistant referees: Angus Gardner (Australia), Andrew Lees (Australia)
TMO: Steve Leszczynski (Australia)
Bulls v Rebels
(Loftus Versfeld, Pretoria – Kick-off: 19.10; 17.10 GMT; 03.10 Saturday AEST)
With nothing but pride at stake the Bulls will at least take the opportunity to give a few guys some Super Rugby exposure, with a view to the Currie Cup season – which gets underway on August 8.
For the Rebels this match presents them with the opportunity to demonstrate what they are truly capable of.
If they could win against one of the most established and coveted teams in the competition – albeit a team performing well below par – it will set the tone for next season.
Both sides are out of contention for the play-offs and both suffered demoralising defeats in their most recent outings.
Loftus Versfeld presents a tough challenge for the Rebels.
A passionate and fanatical crowd will undoubtedly turn out for their last outing of the regular season and rev their team into gear on the pitch.
With no pressure or fear of failure the Bulls are determined to finish well.
"We had great momentum at times [this season], but at the end of the day consistency cost us," Bulls coach Frans Ludeke told rugby365.
"After our bad start we came back well, then on tour when we couldn't get a win, then we got our campaign back on tract again. That last game just before the June break, when we look back that will reflect that our standards were not on par in that game and the Lions played well.
"This past weekend against the Stormers we again created opportunities, but couldn't turn them into points."
Ludeke also spoke of the bitter disappointment of not making the play-offs.
"We will take a lot of positives from the competition, that is why it is important to finish on a high."
Rebels coach Tony McGahan said they will need a massive "momentum shift" against the Bulls.
"Certainly the effort and intent was there, which was well evident," the Rebels mentor said.
"However, we move forward to the Bulls, who have played a pretty attacking style this year, and certainly been strong through the set piece and maul.
"They've played with the ball in hand a lot this year, and certainly they did in the first half against the Stormers on the weekend, but they just had a few errors in their game. I think that they have really evolved, and they're obviously keen to finish off with a good result on the weekend."
Previous results:
2012: Bulls won 41-35, Melbourne
2011: Bulls won 47-10, Pretoria
Prediction: The Rebels (28) and Bulls (24) have struggled to score tries this season, while the Bulls' tackle success rate also leaves them hovering around mid-table. The Rebels, however, are second best with their tackle completion rate. The set pieces are where the Bulls could have a decisive edge – their line-outs the best in the competition ( the Rebels are just mid-table) and their scrums also better than average. At the breakdown the Reels have a distinct advantage over the Bulls. The Bulls are likely to win a try-feast, by about 12 points.
Teams:
Bulls: 15 Jurgen Visser, 14 Bjorn Basson, 13 JJ Engelbrecht, 12 Jan Serfontein, 11 Francois Hougaard, 10 Handré Pollard, 9 Piet van Zyl, 8 Jacques Engelbrecht, 7 Jono Ross, 6 Roelof Smit, 5 Victor Matfield, 4 Paul Willemse, 3 Marcel van der Merwe, 2 Bandise Maku, 1 Morné Mellett.
Replacements: 16 Callie Visagie, 17 Werner Kruger, 18 Dean Greyling, 19 Nicolaas Janse van Rensburg, 20 Marvin Orie, 21 Jesse Kriel, 22 Jacques-Louis Potgieter, 23 William-Small Smith.
Rebels: 15 Telusa Veainu, 14 Alex Rokobaro, 13 Tamati Ellison, 12 Mitch Inman, 11 Tom English, 10 Jack Debreczeni, 9 Luke Burgess, 8 Colby Fainga'a, 7 Scott Fuglistaller (captain), 6 Luke Jones, 5 Cadeyrn Neville, 4 Hugh Pyle, 3 Laurie Weeks, 2 Shota Horie, 1 Toby Smith.
Replacements: 16 Pat Leafa, 17 Cruze Ah-Nau, 18 Paul Alo-Emile, 19 Sam Jeffries, 20 Lopeti Timani, 21 Jordy Reid, 22 Nic Stirzaker, 23 Lalakai Foketi.
Referee: Rohan Hoffmann
Assistant referee: Stuart Berry, Sieg van Staden
TMO: Johan Greeff
