S15 Preview: Round Fifteen, Part One

 

Things kick-off on Friday when the Crusaders take on Kiwi rivals the Highlanders in a match that could have a major impact on the title hopes of wither side.

 

Next up the Rebels count their walking wounded as they head home to Melbourne, where they must tackle Aussie conference leaders the Brumbies.

 

Saturday begins with another all-Kiwi battle between the struggling Blues and the high flying Chiefs in Auckland.

 

In the immortal words of George Lucas – may the force be with us…

 

 

 

The Crusaders will have a score to settle when they meet the Highlanders, following their narrow defeat earlier in the season.

 

The Highlanders have a rare privilege of being on a hat-trick against the Crusaders, which would be an achievement few Super Rugby teams could claim against the might of the Christchurch franchise.

 

The 'Saders come into the match fresh off a bye and picked up a moral boosting victory over the Bulls a week earlier, while the return of Kieran Read at the back of the scrum is another major positive.

 

The Highlanders brushed aside the Blues last weekend to keep their playoff hopes alive, but will need a victory to keep up with the other sides congested in mid-table.

 

A loss would also come as major blow to the Crusaders, who can ill-afford to get caught in the tight battle for the final playoff spot that's happening just below them.

 

The Highlanders have their own big gun back in the No.8 jersey, as Nasi Manu returns to the fray, with his ability to pick and go and take on the advantage line a major asset.

 

The match is also an interesting test at scrumhalf, with Andy Ellis and Aaron Smith going toe-to-toe in what could be the race for the All Black No.9 jersey this year.

 

There are a number of individual battles for New Zealand coach Steve Hansen to keep an eye on, as Zac Guildford and Hose Gear will both range up the touchlines, while Israel Dagg and Ben Smith attack from deep – making the kicking game of the flyhalves key to not give the ball away cheaply to those dangerous runners.

 

The Crusaders are as dangerous as ever when they get some momentum going forward, but a few sides have shown that if you can force them onto the back foot they are vulnerable.

 

The Highlanders like to take you on up front and uses their strong men at first receiver to bash their way forward, but if the defence holds them back they can also find themselves in a pickle.

 

2012: Highlanders won 27-24, Dunedin

2011: Highlanders won 26-18, Nelson

2011: Crusaders won 44-13, Dunedin

2010: Crusaders won 32-17, Christchurch

2009: Highlanders won 6-0, Dunedin

 

rugby365.com Prediction: This one should be very tight, but as things start to wind down to the end the Crusaders will show their class and close out the game. Crusaders by about three.

 

 

Crusaders: 15 Israel Dagg, 14 Adam Whitelock, 13 Robbie Fruean, 12 Ryan Crotty, 11 Zac Guildford, 10 Dan Carter, 9 Andy Ellis, 8 Kieran Read, 7 Richie McCaw (captain), 6 George Whitelock, 5 Samuel Whitelock, 4 Luke Romano, 3 Ben Franks, 2 Corey Flynn, 1 Wyatt Crockett.

Replacements: 16 Quentin MacDonald, 17 Owen Franks, 18 Tom Donnelly, 19 Matt Todd, 20 Willi Heinz, 21 Tom Taylor, 22 Tom Marshall.

 

Highlanders: 15 Ben Smith, 14 Kurt Baker, 13 Tamati Ellison, 12 Phil Burleigh, 11 Hosea Gear, 10 Chris Noakes, 9 Aaron Smith, 8 Nasi Manu, 7 James Haskell, 6 Adam Thomson, 5 Josh Bekhuis, 4 Jarrad Hoeata, 3 Chris King, 2 Andrew Hore, 1 Jamie Mackintosh (captain).

Replacements: 16 Jason Rutledge, 17 Bronson Murray, 18 Nick Crosswell, 19 Tim Boys, 20 Jimmy Cowan, 21 Mike Delany, 22 Kade Poki.

 

Referee: Steve Walsh (Australia)

Assistant referees: Mike Fraser (New Zealand), Kane McBride (New Zealand)

TMO: Vinny Munro (New Zealand)

 

 

Injuries have torn through the Rebels camp ahead of their clash with the Brumbies, with the break for the June Tests coming a week too late for the Melbourne outfit.

 

The loss of Kurtley Beale completely changes the dynamic in the Rebels backline, and with him and James O'Connor injured there are no playmakers capable of bossing the match.

 

The Brumbies are far from happy with their pivotal options either, as with Matt Toomua and Christian Lealiifano both sidelines Zack Holmes is the first choice. To be fair to the young flyhalf he hasn't done a bad job in the No.10 jersey, but his missed penalty in the dying moments of last weekend's match cost the Brumbies the game.

 

With the Reds now hot on their heels in the Aussie conference, the Brumbies need to take full advantage of the Rebels injury woes and go for the jugular and pick up five points.

 

The Rebels forwards are still tough enough to keep things tight up front, but in the backs the Brumbies have a clear advantage and should easily have the upper hand.

 

For the Rebels to have a shot it will be up to veteran Stirling Mortlock to be an inspirational leader, and James Hilgendorf has massive boots to fill at flyhalf.

 

2012: Brumbies won 37-6, Canberra

2011: Brumbies won 32-17, Canberra

2011: Rebels won 25-24, Melbourne

 

rugby365.com Prediction: The Brumbies will dominate this match and go for the kill. Brumbies by about 15.

 

 

Rebels: 15 Julian Huxley, 14 Mark Gerrard, 13 Mitch Inman, 12 Stirling Mortlock (captain), 11 Cooper Vuna, 10 James Hilgendorf, 9 Nick Phipps, 8 Gareth Delve, 7 Hugh Perrett, 6 Luke Jones, 5 Hugh Pyle, 4 Cadeyrn Neville, 3 Jono Owen, 2 Adam Freier, 1 Nic Henderson. 

Replacements: 16 Ged Robinson, 17 Rodney Blake, 18 Alister Campbell, 19 Tom Chamberlain, 20 Tim Davidson, 21 Richard Kingi, 22 Nic Stirzaker.

 

Brumbies: 15 Robbie Coleman, 14 Jesse Mogg, 13 Andrew Smith, 12 Pat McCabe, 11 Joe Tomane, 10 Zack Holmes, 9 Nic White, 8 Ben Mowen (captain), 7 Michael Hooper, 6 Peter Kimlin, 5 Leon Power, 4 Scott Fardy, 3 Ben Alexander, 2 Stephen Moore, 1 Ruaidhri Murphy.

Replacements: 16 Anthony Hegarty, 17 Scott Sio, 18 Fotu Auelua, 19 Colby Faingaa, 20 Ian Prior, 21 Henry Speight, 22 Tevita Kuridrani.

 

Referee: Keith Brown (New Zealand)

Assistant referees: Ian Smith (Australia), Simon Moore (Australia)

TMO: Steve Lesczcynski (Australia)

 

 

 

The Blues tackle the Chiefs in what is a battle between two sides on such different ends of the log that the Chiefs won't be able to see the Blues down below.

 

The Auckland side have had more than their fair share of injuries this season, but that would be a poor excuse to hide behind, because they're not alone on that front. The truth is they have been rubbish for the majority of the season with a few fleeting moments of mediocrity.

 

The chiefs on the other hand have been exceptional for vast portions of the campaign, with is emphasised by their lofty position at the top of the Super Rugby table. While that is very impressive they have been far from faultless and things can turn around rapidly if you take your foot off the pedal in this competition.

 

The Blues have called back a number of their All Blacks for this match, and Ma'a Nonu could be starting to find his feet after making a big impact late in the game last weekend.

 

The Blues will need something special from their quality game-breakers Nonu, Rene Ranger and Rudi Wulf to stand a chance against the Chiefs juggernaut on Saturday.

 

The Chiefs look strong across the board and should overpower the Blues up front, with a deadly backline to capitalise on any mistakes.

 

The big match-up is in midfield, where Nonu and Sonny Bill Williams are likely to test each other in an effort to get a hold on the All Blacks No.12 jersey. Expect both these big units to put in some big tackles and go crash-ball into their opposite number.

 

2012: Chiefs won 29-14, Hamilton

2011: Chiefs won 16-11, Auckland

2011: Blues won 16-13, Hamilton

2010: Blues won 30-20, Auckland

2009: Chiefs won 63-34, Hamilton

 

rugby365.com Prediction: The Blues have made far too many mistakes this season and you simply can't afford to do that against the Chiefs. This will be one-way traffic and a big Chiefs victory.

 

 

Blues: 15 Rudi Wulf, 14 Lachie Munro, 13 Francis Saili, 12 Ma'a Nonu, 11 Rene Ranger, 10 Michael Hobbs, 9 Alby Mathewson, 8 Luke Braid (captain), 7 Daniel Braid, 6 Steven Luatua, 5 Ali Williams, 4 Liaki Moli, 3 Tevita Mailau, 2 James Parsons, 1 Tony Woodcock.

Replacements: 16 Tom McCartney, 17 Angus Ta'avao, 18 Filo Paulo, 19 Peter Saili, 20 Piri Weepu, 21 Hadleigh Parkes, 22 David Raikuna.

 

Chiefs: 15 Andrew Horrell, 14 Maritino Nemani, 13 Jackson Willison, 12 Sonny Bill Williams, 11 Asaeli Tikoirotuma, 10 Aaron Cruden, 9 Tawera Kerr-Barlow, 8 Kane Thompson, 7 Sam Cane, 6 Liam Messam (Captain), 5 Brodie Retallick, 4 Michael Fitzgerald (captain), 3 Ben Afeaki, 2 Mahonri Schwalger, 1 Arizona Taumalolo.

Replacement: 16 Hika Elliot, 17 Ben Tameifuna, 18 Romana Graham, 19 Scott Waldrom, 20 Brendon Leonard, 21 Robbie Robinson, 22 Lelia Masaga.

 

Referee: Chris Pollock (New Zealand)

Assistant referees: Mike Fraser (New Zealand), Nick Briant (New Zealand)

TMO: Ben Skeen