S15 Preview: Round Sixteen, Part One
The international Test window has opened and closed again so it's time to get our teeth sunk into some more Super Rugby action.
The extended break is a new addition to the competition format and adds a an element of uncertainty with teams having time to back off and reflect on their season thus far. Head coaches might have been able to establish new improved battle plans with their break, while the players who missed out on Test match selection will be fresh.
There is also the danger that some teams could have been victims of their own success, where a host of players received Test match call-ups and are therefore in need of some rest, or worse were injured while doing duty for their country.
The Super Rugby actions gets back underway on Friday when the Highlanders tackle the table-topping Chiefs in Dunedin, while a little later the defending champion Reds travel to Melbourne to take on the Rebels.
Saturday's matches kick off with the Hurricanes looking to cause a stir when they blow into Christchurch for a clash with the Crusaders.
Oh the joys of this competition. They had me at Super…
Friday, June 29
Highlanders v Chiefs
(Forsyth Barr Stadium, Dunedin – kick-off: 19.35; 07.35 GMT)
The Highlanders have been none too pleased this week having to train in the mud and snow in preparations for their home match in their ultra-modern indoor stadium.
The bizarre turn of events has left coach Jamie Joseph fuming, but that could also have been misleading photographs as he exhaled in the icy cold air of Dunedin. However, training in freezing conditions used to be what made the men of the South Island so tough and Joseph's bunch will need to be battle hardened against the Chiefs.
The Chiefs did show a moment of vulnerability towards the back end of the first part of the season with a defeat to the Reds, but victories over the Bulls and Blues patched over that result.
The exciting news for Chiefs fans is that flyhalf Aaron Cruden has been passed fit after he left the field injured last weekend while playing for the All Blacks. Cruden has had a great season and his influence can easily be the difference between winning and losing. The fact that Cruden, Sonny Bill Williams and Brodie Retallick are all starting rather than resting after their All Blacks workload points out that the Chiefs mean business.
An interesting move is that starlet Sam Cane might be making waves in the All Blacks setup, but he still finds himself on the bench for the Chiefs with the tried and trusted partnership of Liam Messam and Tanerau Latimer preferred.
The Highlanders have rested James Haskell and Andrew Hore both warming the bench, while Adam Thomson, Hosea Gear, Ben Smith and Aaron Smith are all deemed too valuable to leave out.
The team that is able to click back into gear fastest should find themselves in the driving seat what should be an exciting match.
Recent results:
2012: Highlanders won 23-19, Hamilton
2011: Chiefs won 20-7, Hamilton
2011: Hihlanders won 23-13, Dunedin
2010: Chiefs won 27-21, Mount Maunganui
2009: Chiefs won 14-10, Ivercargill
rugby365.com Prediction: In the comfort of the fancy stadium the Chiefs backs should have perfect conditions to express themselves and run the ball from everywhere, although it will be the Highlanders pack who must try to control the game. The home team should be up for this clash and could cause an upset with their big scrum. Highlanders by less than five.
Teams:
Highlanders: 15 Ben Smith, 14 Kade Poki, 13 Tamati Ellison, 12 Phil Burleigh, 11 Hosea Gear, 10 Chris Noakes, 9 Aaron Smith, 8 Nasi Manu, 7 Tim Boys, 6 Adam Thomson, 5 Nick Crosswell, 4 Jarrad Hoeata, 3 Ma'afu Fia, 2 Jason Rutledge, 1 Jamie Mackintosh (captain).
Replacements: 16 Andrew Hore, 17 Chris King, 18 Josh Bekhuis, 19 James Haskell, 20 Jimmy Cowan, 21 Mike Delany, 22 Buxton Popoali'i.
Chiefs: 15 Robbie Robinson, 14 Tim Nanai-Williams, 13 Jackson Willison, 12 Sonny Bill Williams, 11 Asaeli Tikoirotuma, 10 Aaron Cruden, 9 Tawera Kerr-Barlow, 8 Kane Thompson, 7 Tanerau Latimer, 6 Liam Messam, 5 Brodie Retallick, 4 Craig Clarke (captain), 3 Ben Tameifuna, 2 Mahonri Schwalger, 1 Toby Smith.
Replacements: 16 Hika Elliot, 17 Sona Taumalolo, 18 Michael Fitzgerald, 19 Sam Cane, 20 Brendon Leonard, 21 Andrew Horrell, 22 Lelia Masaga.
Referee: Garratt Williamson (New Zealand)
Assistant referees: Nick Briant (New Zealand), Kane McBride (New Zealand)
TMO: Vinny Munro (New Zealand)
Melbourne Rebels v Reds
(AAMI Park, Melbourne – kick-off: 19.40; 09.40 GMT)
The break from Super Rugby has done wonders for the Rebels and coach Damien Hill must have been touching wood all week with the news that James O'Connor, Kurtley Beale and Stirling Mortlock are all fit.
The interesting decision Hill has made is to select O'Connor at flyhalf after he had been more effective at inside centre, while Beale has been at hi best in the No.10 jersey this season. However, no matter where the play any backline containing both stars will be dangerous.
The Reds are still in the hunt for the playoffs and can't afford to let their flawless record against the Rebels slip this weekend. The team has more of a resemblance to the side that was crowned champions a year ago than it has at any other stage of this campaign. Having Quade Cooper back at pivot could make a world of difference with Digby Ioane and Will Genia the other two massive backline threats.
The loss of skipper James Horwill is the problem for the Reds and the Rebels could gain the upper hand in the forwards, which is an area the Melbourne outfit has made a big improvement this year.
Expect a few moments of magic from the top Wallaby backline stars scattered between the two sides.
Recent results:
2012: Reds won 11-6, Brisbane
2011: Reds won 33-18, Melbourne
2011: Reds won 53-3, Brisbane
rugby365.com Prediction: The Rebels will come hard and have the quality to make life very tough for the Reds, who will rely heavily on Jake Schatz and Liam Gill to steal ball on the ground. This should be a tight match with the Reds coming away with a narrow win.
Teams:
Melbourne Rebels: 15 Kurtley Beale, 14 Mark Gerrard, 13 Mitch Inman, 12 Stirling Mortlock (captain), 11 Cooper Vuna, 10 James O'Connor, 9 Nick Phipps, 8 Gareth Delve, 7 Hugh Perrett, 6 Tom Chamberlain, 5 Hugh Pyle, 4 Cadeyrn Neville, 3 Jono Owen, 2 Adam Freier, 1 Nic Henderson.
Replacements: 16 Ged Robinson, 17 Rodney Blake, 18 Al Campbell, 19 Tim Davidson, 20 Nic Stirzaker, 21 Lachie Mitchell, 22 Julian Huxley.
Reds: 15 Luke Morahan, 14 Dom Shipperley, 13 Anthony Faingaa, 12 Mike Harris, 11 Digby Ioane, 10 Quade Cooper, 9 Will Genia (captain), 8 Scott Higginbotham, 7 Liam Gill, 6 Jake Schatz, 5 Adam Wallace-Harrison, 4 Rob Simmons, 3 James Slipper, 2 Saia Faingaa, 1 Greg Holmes.
Replacements: 16 James Hanson, 17 Ben Daley, 18 Radike Samo, 19 Beau Robinson, 20 Ben Lucas, 21 Chris F'Sautia, 22 Nick Frisby.
Referee: Keith Brown (New Zealand)
Assistant referees: Andrew Lees (Australia), Angus Gardner (Australia)
TMO: Matt Goddard (Australia)
Saturday, June 30
Crusaders v Hurricanes
(AMI Stadium, Christchurch – kick-off 19.35; 07.35 GMT)
One of New Zealand's biggest local rivalries comes into play when the Crusaders get the chance to host the Hurricanes after the earthquake last year robbed them of the privilege.
The Crusaders have lost playmakers Dan Carter and Israel Dagg to injury during the Test window, while the 'Canes must survive without TJ Perenara and Victor Vito.
Even without the excellent service provided by Perenara the 'Canes backline still looks very dangerous and capable of launching a counter-attack from anywhere on the park. However, they often struggle up front when Vito isn't in the pack.
The 'Saders forwards on the other hand should expect to dominate with a host of All Blacks in the scrum, while captain Richie McCaw is starting to get comfortable in the No.8 jersey.
The the home team should have the majority of the possession with their superior forwards, they will need to find a creative spark in the backs with Carter and Dagg both out.
Recent results:
2012: Crusaders won 42-14, Wellington
2011: Crusaders won 16-9, Wellington
2011: No result because of Christchurch earthquake
2010: Match drawn 26-26, Wellington
2009: Hurricanes won 30-24, Christchurch
rugby365.com Prediction: The 'Canes will be exciting to watch and their backs will run at every opportunity, while the Crusaders might want to playa tighter more organised system building through the forwards. Crusaders to narrowly put the 'Canes away on home turf.
Teams:
Crusaders: 15 Sean Maitland, 14 Adam Whitelock, 13 Robbie Fruean, 12 Ryan Crotty, 11 Zac Guildford, 10 Tom Taylor, 9 Andy Ellis, 8 Richie McCaw (captain), 7 Matt Todd, 6 George Whitelock, 5 Samuel Whitelock, 4 Luke Romano, 3 Ben Franks, 2 Corey Flynn, 1 Wyatt Crockett.
Replacements: 16 Quentin MacDonald, 17 Owen Franks, 18 Tom Donnelly/Ross Kennedy, 19 Luke Whitelock, 20 Willi Heinz, 21 Tyler Bleyendaal, 22 Patrick Osborne.
Hurricanes: 15 Andre Taylor, 14 Alapati Leiua, 13 Conrad Smith (captain), 12 Tim Bateman, 11 Julian Savea, 10 Beauden Barrett, 9 Chris Eaton, 8 Brad Shields, 7 Jack Lam/Karl Lowe, 6 Faifili Levave, 5 Jason Eaton, 4 Jeremy Thrush, 3 Ben May, 2 Dane Coles, 1 Reg Goodes.
Replacements: 16 Motu Matu'u, 17 Jeffery Toomaga-Allen, 18 James Broadhurst, 19 Karl Lowe/Mark Reddish, 20 Frae Wilson, 21 Tusi Pisi, 22 Jayden Hayward.
Referee: Bryce Lawrence (New Zealand)
Assistant referees: Nick Briant (New Zealand), Kane McBride (New Zealand)
TMO: Vinny Munro (New Zealand)
By Timmy Hancox
