S15 Preview: Waratahs v Brumbies

The Waratahs, the one team that can rival the Sharks as the most successful side never to have won a title, are desperate to host their first Final.

That, being at home in the grand finale, they feel is the best way to end a nearly two-decade long Super Rugby drought.

Michael Cheika's men, the Waratahs, host the Brumbies in Sydney on Saturday in one of the two semifinals.

Victory over their domestic arch rivals will mean they host the winner of he Crusaders versus Sharks semifinal in the Final in Sydney next week.

Should they advance, it will be the Tahs' third appearance in a grand finale.

Their two previous Final appearances saw them lose to the Crusaders, in Christchurch on both occasions, 25-35 (in 2005) and 12-20 (2008).

Apart from having been runners-up twice, the Waratahs were losing semifinalists on three other occasions and got knocked out in the preliminary play-offs once. The Sharks – by comparison – were runners-up four times (1996, 2001, 2007 and 2012), losing semifinalists three times and knocked out in the preliminary play-offs once.

However, before the Waratahs can even begin to think of shedding their 'chokers' tag, they first have to get past the Brumbies.

Despite never having won a title, the Tahs broke at least one 'drought' this year – finishing first on the standings for the first time, as Michael Cheika's men were seven points clear of their nearest rivals, the Crusaders, on the standings.

The Sydneysiders know it will be a tall order to overcome the two-time champion Brumbies.

"Their key players are back and they've got just as many international players as we have," Cheika said.

"They've got an excellent record in the last two seasons," he said of a Brumbies team that were runners-up last year and just missed out on the play-offs the year before.

"If you look at it from the outside, it's going to be a really good match.

"We know what we have to do.

"We're concentrating very much on our style and what we need to deliver in the game – try and turn the dial up as high as possible come kick-off."

Cheika has recalled South African powerhouse utility forward Jacques Potgieter and is leaving Wallaby giant Will Skelton on the bench for a second half impact, while 12-try fullback Israel Folau and wing Rob Horne are back.

The Brumbies are unchanged and Director of Rugby Laurie Fisher expects his team to be strong in the set-piece.

"To have got through last weekend injury free, it's great for us to be playing again this weekend to maintain momentum," he said.

"We were comfortable with where our set piece was last week against the Chiefs.

"I expect those areas to work in our favour again this weekend."

The Waratahs have a strong record at home over the Brumbies, winning seven of their last eight meetings.

However, it is the Brumbies' tactics that concerns Cheika more than the history between the two sides

"[Head coach Stephen] Larkham picked and chose his times very well when to run, when to kick," Cheika said.

"Because he was such a influential playmaker, Stephen, I think they're very much becoming like him – choosing their times to run and when to kick.

"I think they'll do the same [on Saturday] … the key for us is to limit the opportunities that they can see, or the space that they can see.

"It's about us concentrating on our style to give them plenty to deal with, then limit the opportunities so they've got less decisions to make, or less time to make decisions."

Players to watch:

For the Waratahs: No doubt the one player everybody love to watch is fullback Israel Folau, with wing Alofa Alofa's attacking ability also in the pros column. Flyhalf Bernard Foley has grown in stature this year. Up front it is the power of No.8 Wycliff Palu, the leadership and skill of flank Michael Hooper and the brute force of South African import Jacques Potgieter.

For the Brumbies: Jesse Mogg may not be as spectacular, but what he lacks in explosiveness, he more than makes up for in steadiness. Wing Henry Speight would like to show why he deserves his Wallaby call-up (even if his debut is still another two months away), Christian Lealiifano and Matt Toomua are the key play-makers, while Jarrad Butler provides the power and Scott Fardy the go-forward.

Head to head: They are all over the park and probably all important. There is the contrasting styles of fullbacks Israel Folau (Waratahs) and Jesse Mogg (Brumbies) will be an interesting sideshow. Then there is the midfield battle that has a sound mix of skill – the Waratahs with Adam Ashley-Cooper (for his power) and Kurtley Beale (with his skill) against the Brumbies combination of Tevita Kuridrani (power play) and Christian Lealiifano (skills). At No.8 there is the brute force of Wycliff Palu (Waratahs) against the skills of Ben Mowen (Brumbies). Probably the most intriguing of the battles could be at lock – the wild ways of Jacques Potgieter (Waratahs) against the more subdued approach of Leon Power (Brumbies).

Recent results:

2014: Waratahs won 39-8, Sydney

2014: Brumbies won 28-23, Canberra

2013: Waratahs won 28-22, Sydney

2013: Brumbies won 35-6, Canberra

2012: Brumbies won 19-15, Sydney

2012: Brumbies won 23-6, Canberra

2011: Waratahs won 41-7, Sydney

2011: Waratahs won 29-22, Canberra

2010: Waratahs won 19-12, Sydney

2009: Brumbies won 21-11, Canberra

Prediction: Henry Speight's 12 defenders beaten against the Crusaders was the joint second-highest total recorded in a Super Rugby match since 2006. Only Digby Ioane's 13 defenders beaten for the Reds against the Force last May can better this. The Brumbies' goal-kicking (63 percent) and scrum (76 percent) success rates remain the lowest in the competition this season, though they boast the best ruck success rate (96 percent). The Waratahs top the charts for most carries, metres, offloads, passes and clean breaks per game this term. NSW have averaged fewer missed tackles per game (14.5) than any other side. The Waratahs have averaged fewer kicks from hand (16.3) per game than any other side, but have also received fewer kicks from hand per game (18.2) than any of their peers. The Brumbies rank last for average turnovers won, just 5.8 per match. Bernard Foley (210) and Nic White (204) rank second and third for total kicks this season. The Brumbies try difference is +14, while the Waratahs' is +31. The Brumbies have scored the most tries from possessions which originated from line-outs (25) this season. They also top the list for tries which originated from scrums (12), while the Waratahs have scored 10 from this method. The Waratahs have won six and lost one of seven home matches against the Brumbies since 2006. The key statistics and pointers – getting the basics right and making the least mistakes, which are vital in play-offs – suggest the Waratahs will have too much gas in the tank and take the win by 10 to 15 points.

Teams:

Waratahs: 15 Israel Folau, 14 Alofa Alofa, 13 Adam Ashley-Cooper, 12 Kurtley Beale, 11 Rob Horne, 10 Bernard Foley, 9 Nick Phipps, 8 Wycliff Palu, 7 Michael Hooper (captain), 6 Stephen Hoiles, 5 Jacques Potgieter, 4 Kane Douglas, 3 Sekope Kepu, 2 Tatafu Polota-Nau, 1 Benn Robinson.

Replacements: 16 Tola Latu, 17 Paddy Ryan, 18 Jeremy Tilse, 19 Will Skelton, 20 Mitchell Chapman, 21 Pat McCutcheon, 22 Brendan McKibbon, 23 Taqele Naiyaravoro.

Brumbies: 15 Jesse Mogg, 14 Henry Speight, 13 Tevita Kuridrani, 12 Christian Lealiifano, 11 Robbie Coleman, 10 Matt Toomua, 9 Nic White, 8 Ben Mowen, 7 Jarrad Butler, 6 Scott Fardy, 5 Leon Power, 4 Sam Carter, 3 Ben Alexander, 2 Josh Mann-Rea, 1 Scott Sio.

Replacements: 16 Ruaidhri Murphy, 17 Ruan Smith, 18 Allan Alaalatoa, 19 Fotu Auelua, 20 Tom McVerry, 21 Michael Dowsett, 22 Joe Tomane, 23 Pat McCabe.

Date: Saturday, July 26

Venue: Allianz Stadium, Sydney

Kick-off: 19.40 local (09.40 GMT; 21.40 NZ time, 11.40 SA time)

Expected weather: There will be early showers, although it is expected to clear up through the day. It will be mild, with a low of 11°C and a high of 22°C

Referee: Jaco Peyper

Assistant referees: Craig Joubert, James Leckie

TMO: George Ayoub

By Jan de Koning