S18 PREVIEW: ROUND FOUR, PART ONE
It is going to be an intriguing Friday – with a trio of absorbing and riveting matches.
On the face of it the weekend's opening match, between the Hurricanes and Western Force, may not be the most appealing encounter.
However, the Hurricanes do not have the best track record in Palmerston North – where they have won just over 50 persent of their matches and have an average match score of 24-all.
It is a statistic the Western Force will take heart from.
It gets better, much better, from then on.
We move across the Tasman Sea to Sydney, where the Waratahs – coming off a loss to the Brumbies and a bye – will have to overcome an ever-improving Highlanders outfit.
The day's action is completed with an all-South African derby, when the Bulls host the Sharks – one of only two unbeaten sides.
We look at the Friday, March 18, matches below!
The The Hurricanes, who finally broke their duck with a win over the Blues, have lost a number of key players.
Not only have they lost star back Nehe Milner-Skudder, but blindside flank Brad Shields, prop Reggie Goodes and hooker Leni Apisai have all been ruled out due to injury.
On the flipside, they were able to bolster their armoury with captain Dane Coles – back in the starting XV after pre-season niggles.
Despite the loss of key personnel, Western Force coach Michael Foley remains wary of last year's losing finalists.
Foley said the clash with the Hurricanes is obviously an important one, with the team wanting to kick the three-week New Zealand tour off with a win.
"Playing the Hurricanes at home is always a tough match, but we look forward to the challenge and are eager to test ourselves against last year's runners-up," the Force coach said.
"The Hurricanes are a dangerous team with threats all over the park, but we will stick to our game style and focus on playing at pace."
Recent results:
2015: Hurricanes won 42-13, Perth
2013: Hurricanes won 22-16, Wellington
2012: Hurricanes won 46-19, Perth
2011: Hurricanes won 34-28, Palmerston North
2010: Hurricanes won 47-22, Wellington
2009: Hurricanes won 28-27, Perth
Prediction: The Hurricanes have won their last seven matches against the Force with the Western Australian team's only win against the Hurricanes coming in a 18-17 nailbiter in Round Six, 2007. The Hurricanes have neither come from behind nor let a lead slip after being ahead at half-time in their last nine Super Rugby fixtures, of those nine they have won five. The last time the Force won three away games on the spin against any opposition in Super Rugby was 2008. Western Force flank Matt Hodgson (51) is the first and only player so far this season to make more than 50 tackles and he's missed on only three further attempts. Beauden Barrett (32) has made more kicks in general play than any other player so far this season. The Hurricanes still look to have too much class for the visitors and despite their poor track record in Palmerston, they should with by at least 12 points.
Teams:
Hurricanes: 15 James Marshall, 14 Cory Jane, 13 Vince Aso, 12 Ngani Laumape, 11 Julian Savea, 10 Beauden Barrett, 9 TJ Perenara, 8 Victor Vito, 7 Ardie Savea, 6 Vaea Fifita, 5 Mark Abbott, 4 Blade Thomson, 3 Jeff Toomaga-Allen, 2 Dane Coles (captain), 1 Chris Eves.
Replacements: 16 Ricky Riccitelli, 17 Loni Uhila, 18 Ben May, 19 Michael Fatialofa, 20 Callum Gibbins, 21 Jamison Gibson-Park, 22 Willis Halaholo, 23 Jason Woodward.
Western Force: 15 Dane Haylett-Petty, 14 Marcel Brache, 13 Ben Tapuai, 12 Solomoni Rasolea, 11 Semisi Masirewa, 10 Peter Grant, 9 Alby Mathewson, 8 Ben McCalman, 7 Matt Hodgson, 6 Angus Cottrell, 5 Adam Coleman, 4 Ross Haylett-Petty, 3 Tetera Faulkner, 2 Nathan Charles, 1 Pekahou Cowan.
Replacements: 16 Chris Heiberg, 17 Heath Tessmann, 18 Jermaine Ainsley, 19 Sitiveni Mafi, 20 Brynard Stander, 21 Ryan Louwrens, 22 Ian Prior, 23 Albert Nikoro.
Referee: Paul Williams (New Zealand)
Assistant referees: Ben O'Keeffe (New Zealand), Kane McBride (New Zealand)
TMO: Shane McDermott (New Zealand)
The Waratahs, desperate to get their campaign back on track, have a strong reference point – as they look to bounce back from a Week Two loss to the Brumbies.
The Tahs experienced a similar situation back in 2014 – when they suffered an early season loss (23-28) to the Brumbies in Canberra. However they managed to bounce back, going on to win 12 out of 15 matches to claim their maiden Super Rugby title.
This year, they're willing for the same and, with a host of experienced players and new stock, are just as able.
Scrumhalf, Nick Phipps believes it's the perfect time to review the last few games and look at what the team and other teams have been doing well.
"There's been a lot of work out there, a lot of contact as well," Phipps said in an interview on the Waratahs website.
"It's been stuff that we've been needing to hit on the head now so that we're not dying at the end of the season, instead we can compete towards the middle and the end of the season, as opposed to just peaking now and then, while other teams chase us."
Highlanders coach Jamie Joseph has not had much time to celebrate last week's impressive win over the Lions – as he was forced to make a raft of changes to his team.
Four players who started last week against the Lions – Joe Wheeler (concussion), Dan Pryor (concussion), Luke Whitelock (knee) and Patrick Osborne (hip) – have been ruled out through injury.
It means the defending champions' depth will be sorely tested.
Rookie wing Matt Faddes said the pace and physicality of the game means there is no place to hide.
"Every tackle is a big tackle," he told the Otago Daily Times.
"Every run you've got to put the hammer down. And you have to execute the skills at speed. There are no dud players here."
Recent results:
2015: Highlanders won 35-17, Sydney (semifinal)
2015: Highlanders won 26-19, Dunedin
2014: Waratahs won 44-16, Sydney
2012: Highlanders won 18-17, Dunedin
2011: Waratahs won 33-7, Sydney
2010: Highlanders won 26-10, Invercargill
Prediction: The Highlanders have won four of their last six matches against the Waratahs, though the Waratahs have won three of the most recent four matches between these sides when played in Australia. The Waratahs have won seven of their last nine matches against New Zealand opponents in Super Rugby, though both their losses in that span have been against the Highlanders. The Highlanders have won only three of their last 17 matches in Australia, though two of those wins came in their two most recent such fixtures, one against the Waratahs in the 2015 semifinals. Ben Smith (five) has had the most try involvements of any player so far this season with three tries and two try assists. The Waratahs have conceded only one try from opposition possession beginning from a line-out, the equal fewest of any team in the competition. The Waratahs are coming off a bye and the Highlanders are still feeling the effects of last week's bruising encounter with the Lions. The Waratahs will get the upperhand in the final quarter, but the margin should be in single digits.
Teams:
Waratahs: 15 Israel Folau, 14 Matt Carraro, 13 Rob Horne, 12 David Horwitz, 11 Zac Guildford, 10 Kurtley Beale, 9 Nick Phipps, 8 Wycliff Palu, 7 Michael Hooper (captain), 6 David Dennis, 5 Will Skelton, 4 Dean Mumm, 3 Angus Ta'avao, 2 Tolu Latu, 1 Paddy Ryan.
Replacements: 16 Hugh Roach, 17 Jeremy Tilse, 18 Tom Robertson, 19 Sam Lousi, 20 Jed Holloway, 21 Jack Dempsey, 22 Matt Lucas, 23 Reece Robinson.
Highlanders: 15 Ben Smith (co-captain), 14 Matt Faddes, 13 Malakai Fekitoa, 12 Rob Thompson, 11 Ryan Tongia, 10 Lima Sopoaga, 9 Aaron Smith, 8 Liam Squire, 7 Shane Christie (co-captain), 6 Elliot Dixon, 5 Tom Franklin, 4 Alex Ainley, 3 Siosiua Halanukonuka, 2 Liam Coltman, 1 Brendon Edmonds.
Replacements: 16 Ash Dixon, 17 Daniel Lienert-Brown, 18 Ross Geldenhuys, 19 Mark Reddish, 20 Gareth Evans, 21 Josh Renton, 22 Hayden Parker, 23 Jason Emery.
Referee: Nick Briant (New Zealand)
Assistant referees: James Leckie (Australia), Graham Cooper (Australia)
TMO: Ian Smith (Australia)
The Sharks, the only unbeaten South African team after three rounds, made a mockery of the pre-season predictions.
Sharks Director of Rugby Gary Gold said his team is determined to maintain their momentum ahead of another big all-South African derby.
“We spoke in pre-season about how important it was for us to get a good start, otherwise we could have had a repeat of last season," Gold said.
"Besides a good start, a couple of those wins have come away from home as well.
"But it's not going to get any easier, we have a short turnaround this week, [with a game] against the Bulls at Loftus on Friday."
The Bulls are coming off a bye – following their opening round loss to the Stormers and a less than satisfactory win over the Rebels.
"To have a bye this early in the competition has pros and cons, but we decided to look at it in a positive way," Bulls coach Nollis Marais said.
"It gave us time to work on the aspects of our game that was shown up by the Stormers and Rebels and it gave the likes of Jesse [Kriel] a chance to get match-fit again.
"The Sharks will arrive at Loftus with a lot of momentum and confidence, but we need to put a stop to that if we want to be successful," Marais added.
Bulls captain Adriaan Strauss made it clear that his side is keen to get back to the field.
"The tournament has already showed why it is such a great event," Strauss said.
"There has been some great games so far and we can't wait to become part of the action again this weekend.
"This will be another typical South African derby with no mercy being given or asked.
"The Sharks have been great so far and will provide us with a massive test.
"But we would not want it any other way and to front that challenge in front of our home support will certainly spur us on."
Recent results:
2015: Bulls won 17-10, Durban
2015: Bulls won 43-35, Pretoria
2014: Bulls won 23-19, Pretoria
2014: Sharks won 31-16, Durban
2013: Bulls won 20-19, Pretoria
2013: Bulls won 18-16, Durban
Prediction: The Bulls have won nine of their last 12 matches against the Sharks, including each of their last three, but at no point in that span have they beaten them by more than nine points. After snapping a six game losing streak with a win in Round Two the Bulls will be looking to secure back-to-back wins in Super Rugby for the first time since Round Ten last season, which was their last encounter with the Sharks. The Sharks have tied together six wins on the trot and a seventh win would see the streak extend to their longest in Super Rugby since they won eight in a row across the 2006 and 2007 seasons. The Bulls remain the only team in the competition yet to concede a first half try so far this season though they've conceded four penalty goals in this period. Sharks goal-kicker Joe Pietersen has kicked 14 goals so far this season, the third most of any player and the most of any South African in the competition. The Bulls are lacking something – a magic spark – and the Sharks have looked a solid unit in the first three rounds. We feel the Sharks will win by more than a converted try.
Teams:
Bulls: 15 Warrick Gelant, 14 Jamba Ulengo, 13 Jan Serfontein, 12 Burger Odendaal, 11 Bjorn Basson, 10 Francois Brummer, 9 Rudy Paige, 8 Arno Botha, 7 Jannes Kirsten, 6 Roelof Smit, 5 Grant Hattingh, 4 Rudolph Snyman, 3 Marcel van der Merwe, 2 Adriaan Strauss (captain), 1 Trevor Nyakane.
Replacements: 16 Jaco Visagie, 17 Lizo Gqoboka, 18 Hencus van Wyk, 19 Jason Jenkins, 20 Nic de Jager, 21 Piet van Zyl, 22 Tian Schoeman, 23 Jesse Kriel.
Sharks: 15 Willie le Roux, 14 JP Pietersen, 13 Paul Jordaan, 12 Andre Esterhuizen, 11 Lwazi Mvovo, 10 Joe Pietersen, 9 Michael Claassens, 8 Daniel du Preez, 7 Philip van der Walt, 6 Marcell Coetzee, 5 Stephan Lewies, 4 Etienne Oosthuizen, 3 Lourens Adriaanse, 2 Kyle Cooper, 1 Tendai Mtawarira (captain).
Replacements: 16 Franco Marais, 17 Juan Schoeman, 18 Coenie Oosthuizen, 19 Hyron Andrews, 20 Keegan Daniel, 21 Cobus Reinach, 22 Garth April, 23 Odwa Ndungane.
Referee: Glen Jackson (New Zealand)
Assistant referees: Stuart Berry (South Africa), Rasta Rasivhenge (South Africa)
TMO: Willie Vos (South Africa)
Compiled by Jan de Koning
@King365ed
@rugby365com
* Statistical information provided by Opta Sports
