Super Rugby Aotearoa - predictions and teams: Round 10

UNCERTAIN TIMES: The New Zealand rugby community is waiting with bated breath for the speech of Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern on Friday.

Ardern will then reveal the status of the escalating COVID-19 threat in the country – which could see the final round of the successful domestic competition being culled.

As it stands, Saturday’s Highlanders versus Hurricanes match in Dunedin (at Level Two) can go ahead, with significant restrictions on crowd attendance.

However, with Auckland at Level Three, the Blues versus Crusaders game on Sunday could not be played – even with Eden Park already sold out.

If Ardern raises the level around the country – following the revelation that there were 13 new cases overnight – the entire final round of Super Rugby Aotearoa could be called off.

“It’s down to the government and the level we are at, because that determines what we can and cannot do, so we won’t hear before then,” Highlanders CEO Roger Clark told the New Zealand media.

“We’ll hear at the same time as everyone else, we’ll be glued to the TV tomorrow [Friday].

“At level 1 we’ll play with a crowd, and anything above that we’ll either have no crowd or no game.”

This week’s predictions

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Saturday, August 15

Highlanders v Hurricanes ‘
(Forsyth Barr Stadium, Dunedin – Kick-off: 19.05; 07.05 GMT)

The Hurricanes have won six of their last seven Super Rugby games against the Highlanders, including their last three on the bounce; although, their last three clashes have all been won by a margin of fewer than seven points on the day.

The Highlanders have lost four of their last five Super Rugby games on home soil, including their last two on the bounce.

The last time they lost more consecutive home games in the competition was a six-game stretch across the 2012 and 2013 seasons.

The Highlanders have made dominant contact of 24.5 percent of their total carries so far in Super Rugby Aotearoa, the highest percentage of any team in the competition and three percentage points higher than the Hurricanes (21.5 percent).

Marino Mikaele-Tu’u (Highlanders) and Ngani Laumape (Hurricanes) have each made dominant contact on 25 carries in Super Rugby Aotearoa, the joint-most of any player in the competition.

Thomas Perenara (Hurricanes) has made eight break passes so far in Super Rugby Aotearoa, the joint-most of any player in the competition and two more than Highlanders’ best Mitch Hunt (six)

Predictions

@rugby365com: Hurricanes by five points

Teams

Highlanders: 15 Mitch Hunt, 14 Josh McKay, 13 Michael Collins, 12 Sio Tomkinson, 11 Jona Nareki, 10 Josh Ioane, 9 Aaron Smith, 8 Marino Mikaele-Tu’u, 7 Dillon Hunt, 6 Shannon Frizell, 5 Jack Whetton, 4 Pari Pari Parkinson, 3 Jeff Thwaites, 2 Ash Dixon, 1 Ayden Johnstone.
Replacements: 16 Liam Coltman, 17 Daniel Lienert-Brown, 18 Siate Tokolahi, 19 Manaaki Selby-Rickit, 20 Teariki Ben-Nicholas, 21 Folau Fakatava, 22 Ngatungane Punivai, 23 Tom Florence.

Hurricanes: 15 Jordie Barrett, 14 Vince Aso, 13 Billy Proctor, 12 Peter Umaga-Jensen, 11 Wes Goosen, 10 Jackson Garden-Bachop, 9 Jamie Booth, 8 Ardie Savea, 7 Du’Plessis Kirifi, 6 Reed Prinsep, 5 Scott Scrafton, 4 James Blackwell, 3 Tyrel Lomax, 2 Dane Coles (captain), 1 Ben May.
Replacements: 16 Ricky Riccitelli, 17 Tevita Mafileo, 18 Pouri Rakete-Stones, 19 Liam Mitchell, 20 Devan Flanders, 21 Jonathan Taumateine, 22 Salesi Rayasi, 23 Chase Tiatia.

Referee: Brendon Pickerill
Assistant referees: Mike Fraser, James Doleman
TMO: Chris Hart

Sunday, August 16

Blues v Crusaders
(Eden Park, Auckland – Kick-off: 15.35; 03.35 GMT)

The Crusaders have won their last 12 consecutive Super Rugby games against the Blues, conceding an average of just 16 points per game in that stretch.

The Crusaders have trailed at half-time in four of their last five Super Rugby games; although, they have managed to bounce back and pick up four wins across that stretch.

The Blues have scored the opening try of the game in 11 of their last 13 Super Rugby games on home turf, including their last six on the bounce.

The Crusaders lead Super Rugby Aotearoa in carries (129), metres gained (475), clean breaks (13), defender beaten (28) and offloads (11) per game while no team has made fewer carries (96) or gained fewer metres (307) per game than the Blues.

Finlay Christie (Blues) has been directly involved in four tries in his last two Super Rugby appearances (3 tries, 1 try assist), including two tries and an assist in his last appearance (Rd 8, Super Rugby Aotearoa)

Predictions

@rugby365com: Blues by seven points

Teams

TBC

Bye: Chiefs

* Stats provided by Opta Sports