Super Rugby Aotearoa - predictions and teams: Round One

LET THE GAMES BEGIN: Super Rugby makes a comeback in New Zealand this weekend, with full crowds allowed in a major landmark for professional sport’s emergence from the coronavirus shutdown.

High-profile Auckland Blues recruit Dan Carter will be among those looking on as rugby reaps the reward of New Zealand’s success in achieving zero cases of COVID-19.

Organisers say the competition will be the first professional sport played without crowd restrictions anywhere in the world since the pandemic took hold, although football leagues in Vietnam and Turkmenistan might dispute the claim.

It is certainly highest profile sport to throw open its doors and its visibility was given an added boost with All Black legend Carter’s shock decision to sign for the Blues at the age of 38, five years after his international retirement.

Super Rugby Aotearoa – the Maori name for New Zealand – is a domestic replacement for the suspended 15-team Southern Hemisphere competition, which has been in limbo since mid-March.

Featuring New Zealand’s five Super Rugby teams, the 10-round competition will have two matches each weekend.

The opening fixture Saturday sees Highlanders meet Chiefs in Dunedin, where student fans in “The Zoo” section of the ground are sure to offering full-throated support and generating an electric atmosphere.

The Highlanders’ backline has been boosted by the recruitment of livewire former international Nehe Milner-Skudder, while the Chiefs are missing newly anointed All Blacks captain Sam Cane with a back strain.

The second match on Sunday pits Blues against Hurricanes at Eden Park, where the crowd is expected to exceed 35,000.

The Blues are on a high after signing Carter, although the two-time World Cup winner and three-time world player of the year admit he is several weeks away from being match fit.

Even if Carter does not take the field, Beauden Barrett said his presence at training had been “immense”.

“The boost he’s given to the team and me personally, it’s been huge,” said Barrett, himself a two-time world player of the year.

It will be Barrett’s first appearance for the Blues since he transferred from the Hurricanes at the end of last season and Wellington halfback Thomas Perenara promised him warm reception from his former teammates.

“I’m sure there’ll be a few words out there but it’ll be in the spirit of the game,” Perenara told reporters.

Barrett will not face off against younger brother Jordie, who the Hurricanes said was nursing a shoulder injury.

The competition has introduced some experimental rule changes that New Zealand Rugby said were designed to add excitement to the game, including a golden point winner in extra-time if scores are level after 80 minutes.

Teams can also replace a player who has been red-carded after 20 minutes, instead of playing the rest of the match down one man.

Referees have also been told to strictly police the breakdown, to ensure a fast-flowing game.

This week’s predictions

Saturday, June 13

Highlanders v Chiefs
(Forsyth Barr Stadium, Dunedin – Kick-off: 19.05; 07.05 GMT)

The Chiefs have lost only one of their last five Super Rugby games against the Highlanders.

However, the last encounter between the teams in the competition ended in a 31-all draw.

The Highlanders have lost five of their last six completed Super Rugby games, including their last three on the bounce.

Each of the Chiefs’ last four Super Rugby games have been won by the away team on the day, with the Hamilton-based squad picking up two wins and two defeats in that stretch.

The Chiefs have conceded 10+ penalties in six of their last seven Super Rugby fixtures, as many times as they had done so in their 24 games prior.

Shannon Frizell (Highlanders) has scored two tries in just 90 minutes of Super Rugby action against the Chiefs, as well as making three offloads in that time.

Teams:

Highlanders: 15 Mitch Hunt, 14 Sam Gilbert, 13 Rob Thompson, 12 Patelesio Tomkinson, 11 Jona Nareki, 10 Josh Ioane, 9 Aaron Smith, 8 Marino Mikaele Tu’u, 7 Dillon Hunt, 6 Shannon Frizell, 5 Josh Dickson, 4 Paripari Parkinson, 3 Siate Tokolahi, 2 Ash Dixon (captain), 1 Ayden Johnstone.
Replacements: 16 Liam Coltman, 17 Daniel Lienert-Brown, 18 Jeff Thwaites, 19 Manaaki Selby-Rickit, 20 Teariki Ben-Nicholas, 21 Kayne Hammington, 22 Teihorangi Walden, 23 Vilimoni Koroi.

Chiefs: 15 Damian McKenzie, 14 Shaun Stevenson, 13 Quinn Tupaea, 12 Anton Lienert-Brown, 11 Sean Wainui, 10 Kaleb Trask, 9 Brad Weber (captain), 8 Pita Gus Sowakula, 7 Lachlan Boshier, 6 Luke Jacobson, 5 Tupou Vaa’i, 4 Mitchell Brown, 3 Nepo Laulala, 2 Samisoni Taukei’aho, 1 Aidan Ross.
Replacements: 16 Bradley Slater, 17 Ryan Coxon, 18 Ross Geldenhuys, 19 Naitoa Ah Kuoi, 20 Dylan Nel, 21 Te Toiroa Tahuriorangi, 22 Aaron Cruden, 23 Etene Nanai-Seturo.

Referee: Paul Williams
Assistant referees: Brendon Pickerill, Ben O’Keeffe
TMO: James Doleman

Predictions

Rugby365: Chiefs by 10 points

Sunday, June 14

Blues v Hurricanes
(Eden Park, Auckland – Kick-off: 15.35; 03.35 GMT)

The Blues picked up a 24-15 win in their last Super Rugby meeting with the Hurricanes, snapping a nine-game losing streak against them in the process.

The Hurricanes have won on each of their last five visits to face the Blues in Super Rugby, more times than they had won in all 12 such meetings prior.

The Blues have won their last four Super Rugby games on the bounce. The last time they won more in succession was a seven-game stretch in the 2011 campaign which was bookended with wins against the Hurricanes.

The Hurricanes have finished each of their last 10 Super Rugby games without losing a single scrum on their own feed, winning a total of 84 scrums in that stretch.

Beauden Barrett has scored three tries and made three try assists across his last four Super Rugby games between the Blues and Hurricanes. However, this will be the first time he’s represented the Auckland side against his former franchise.

Teams

Blues: 15 Beauden Barrett, 14 Mark Telea, 13 Rieko Ioane, 12 TJ Faiane, 11 Caleb Clarke, 10 Otere Black, 9 Sam Nock; 8 Hoskins Sotutu, 7 Blake Gibson, 6 Tom Robinson, 5 Josh Goodhue, 4 Patrick Tuipulotu (captain), 3 Ofa Tu’ungafasi, 2 James Parsons, 1 Alex Hodgman.
Replacements: 16 Kurt Eklund, 17 Ezekiel Lindenmuth, 18 Marcel Renata, 19 Gerard Cowley-Tuioti, 20 Dalton Papalii, 21 Finlay Christie, 22 Harry Plummer, 23 Matt Duffie.

Hurricanes: 15 Chase Tiatia, 14 Wes Goosen, 13 Vince Aso, 12 Ngani Laumape, 11 Ben Lam, 10 Jackson Garden-Bachop, 9 Thomas Perenara (co-captain), 8 Gareth Evans, 7 Du’Plessis Kirifi, 6 Reed Prinsep, 5 Scott Scrafton, 4 James Blackwell, 3 Tyrel Lomax, 2 Dane Coles (co-captain), 1 Fraser Armstrong.
Replacements: 16 Asafo Aumua, 17 Tevita Mafileo, 18 Alex Fidow, 19 Isaia Walker-Leawere, 20 Vaea Fifita, 21 Ardie Savea, 22 Jamie Booth, 23 Billy Proctor.

Referee: Mike Fraser
Assistant referees: Ben O’Keeffe, James Doleman
TMO: Brendon Pickerill

Predictions

Rugby365: Blues by seven points

* Statistics provided by Opta Sports