Super Rugby Aotearoa - predictions and teams: Round Six
BIG BARRETT BATTLE: The four teams in the chasing pack are being given a chance to close the gap on the pace-setting Crusaders this week.
The Chiefs will look for their first win and exact some revenge when they host the Highlanders (one win from four starts) in Hamilton on Sunday.
However, it is in Wellington on Saturday where Super Rugby Aotearoa’s focus will be this week.
The Blues, with just one defeat, have the most realist chance of changing the unbeaten Crusaders.
However, it the is the battle of the Barrett brothers – Jordie (Hurricanes) and Beauden (Blues) – that has fans salivating ahead of this Round Six outing.
As was top be expected, Hurricanes coach Jason Holland this week reiterated an earlier statement that Jordie Barrett is the best fullback in New Zealand.
However, older brother Beauden has been in fine form for the Blues as a fullback.
“In my eyes, he’s the best [fullback] in the country, but he’s got to work hard to make sure he stays there and perform week in, week out,” Holland told stuff.co.nz in an interview this week.
The Hurricanes mentor still believes Beauden Barrett is more effective at flyhalf, the position he played most often in for the Hurricanes – when he featured for the Wellington team in 125 games between 2011 and 2019.
“We do things with our players to pick guys in different positions and obviously they [The Blues] think that [fullback] is the best way to get results and it’s probably proven to be the case for them so far this year,” he added.
“Beaudy is a massive threat at No.10 and he’s obviously not there from set-piece, which probably gives us some peace of mind if he’s not a threat around the No.10 channel.”
This week’s predictions
Saturday, July 18
Hurricanes v Blues
(Regional Stadium, Wellington – Kick-off: 19.05; 07.05 GMT)
The Blues have won their last two Super Rugby games on the bounce against the Hurricanes>
The last time they won more in succession against them was an eight-game streak in their first eight meetings in the competition from 1996 to 2003.
Three of the last four Super Rugby games when the Hurricanes have hosted the Blues have been won by the team trailing at half-time on the day, with the Hurricanes picking up three wins in that span.
Six of the Hurricanes’ last eight Super Rugby games against fellow New Zealand opposition have been decided by a single-point margin on the day, including wins by seven and six points in their last two fixtures in Super Rugby Aotearoa.
The Hurricanes have scored five tries on possession begun with a scrum win on their own feed this Super Rugby Aotearoa campaign, more than all other teams combined via this method.
Hoskins Sotutu (Blues) has made 40 carries and 42 tackles throughout Super Rugby Aotearoa. He is the only player to have registered 40+ in both categories.
Predictions
@rugby365com: Blues by seven points
Teams
Hurricanes: 15 Jordie Barrett, 14 Kobus van Wyk, 13 Peter Umaga-Jensen, 12 Ngani Laumape, 11 Ben Lam, 10 Jackson Garden-Bachop, 9 Thomas Perenara, 8 Ardie Savea, 7 Du’Plessis Kirifi, 6 Reed Prinsep, 5 Scott Scrafton, 4 James Blackwell, 3 Tyrel Lomax, 2 Dane Coles, 1 Ben May.
Replacements: 16 Asafo Aumua, 17 Fraser Armstrong, 18 Alex Fidow, 19 Isaia Walker-Leawere, 20 Vaea Fifita, 21 Jamie Booth, 22 Billy Proctor, 23 Wes Goosen.
Blues: 15 Beauden Barrett, 14 Emoni Narawa, 13 Rieko Ioane, 12 Harry Plummer, 11 Mark Telea, 10 Otere Black, 9 Finlay Christie; 8 Akira Ioane, 7 Dalton Papalii, 6 Aaron Carroll, 5 Josh Goodhue, 4 Patrick Tuipulotu (captain), 3 Ofa Tuungafasi, 2 Kurt Eklund, 1 Alex Hodgman.
Replacements: 16 Tolai Luteru, 17 Marcel Renata, 18 Sione Mafileo, 19 Gerard Cowley-Tuioti, 20 Tony Lamborn, 21 Jonathan Ruru, 22 Thomas Faiane, 23 Matt Duffie.
Referee: Ben O’Keeffe
Assistant referees: Brendon Pickerill, Paul Williams
TMO: James Doleman
Sunday, July 19
Chiefs v Highlanders
(Waikato Stadium, Hamilton – Kick-off: 15.35; 03.35 GMT)
The Highlanders have won eight of their last 12 Super Rugby games against the Chiefs and are undefeated in their last three clashes against them.
Four of the Chiefs’ last five home games against the Highlanders in Super Rugby have been decided by a margin of five points or fewer, with the Chiefs picking up just two wins in that span.
The Chiefs have lost their last five Super Rugby games on the bounce and will be looking to avoid a franchise-record equaling sixth straight defeat for the first time since a six-game losing streak across the 2008 and 2009 campaigns.
The Chiefs have had an average of 18 minutes and 15 seconds of time in possession per game during Super Rugby Aotearoa – the most of any team. As a result, they’ve also made more carries per game (136) than any other franchise.
Highlanders’ duo Aaron Smith and Dillon Hunt have each won five turnovers in Super Rugby Aotearoa – the joint-most of any player in the competition.
The only other player to have reached this mark is the Chiefs’ Lachlan Boshier.
Predictions
@rugby365com: Chiefs by 10 points
Teams:
Chiefs: 15 Damian McKenzie, 14 Sean Wainui, 13 Anton Lienert-Brown, 12 Alex Nankivell, 11 Solomon Alaimalo, 10 Kaleb Trask, 9 Brad Weber, 8Pita Gus Sowakula, 7 Sam Cane (captain), 6 Lachlan Boshier, 5 Mitchell Brown, 4 Tupou Vaa’i, 3 Nepo Laulala, 2 Bradley Slater, 1 Aidan Ross.
Replacements: 16 Samisoni Taukei’aho, 17 Reuben O’Neill, 18 Ross Geldenhuys, 19 Adam Thomson, 20 Mitchell Karpik, 21 Te Toiroa Tahuriorangi, 22 Aaron Cruden, 23 Quinn Tupaea.
Highlanders: 15 Michael Collins, 14 Josh McKay, 13 Rob Thompson, 12 Sio Tomkinson, 11 Scott Gregory, 10 Mitch Hunt, 9 Aaron Smith (co-captain), 8 Marino Mikaele-Tu’u, 7 Shannon Frizell, 6 Dillon Hunt, 5 Jack Whetton, 4 Pari Pari Parkinson, 3 Siate Tokolahi, 2 Ash Dixon, 1 Ayden Johnstone.
Replacements: 16 Liam Coltman (co-captain), 17 Ethan De Groot, 18 Jeff Thwaites, 19 Manaaki Selby-Rickit, 20 Jesse Parete, 21 Folau Fakatava, 22 Josh Ioane, 23 Jona Nareki.
Referee: Mike Fraser
Assistant referees: Paul Williams, James Doleman
TMO: Brendon Pickerill
Bye: Crusaders
* Stats provided by Opta Sports
