Super Rugby AU - Predictions and Teams, Round Seven

BULLSEYE: They may be winless but there’s no chance of the Western Force ambushing the Waratahs in Friday’s Super Rugby AU clash on the Gold Coast.

“We’ll be flying up there with a big bullseye on our chest,” Waratahs coach Rob Penney said on Thursday.

Despite sitting last with just two bonus points from four outings since their return to the big stage, the Force have been anything but pushovers.

They led the Waratahs 14-0 last time around, almost toppled the Queensland Reds and took the Melbourne Rebels to extra time last start.

So Penney knows full well what the Waratahs are in for at Cbus Super Stadium.

“They’ve been really good, really competitive,” he said.

“They’ve picked up a few good lads from around the place and getting an opportunity and showing their worth, which is great for Australian rugby big picture.

“And they’ve got some old Kiwi heads that I know pretty well that have added a little bit more steel and they’ll be targeting us massively and looking at what they did last time against us and getting a lot of confidence out of that.

“They’ll be desperate for a win. They won’t want to be getting through the competition with a duck egg. They’re a better side than that.”

Coming off a record 45-12 win over the Reds, the third-placed Waratahs have been boosted by the return of skipper Rob Simmons from a broken rib.

The veteran Wallabies lock takes over the captaincy from Michael Hooper, while Penney has rested Ned Hanigan and prop Harry Johnson-Holmes to freshen up the forward pack for the six-day turnaround.

Hooper will be playing his 150th game for the Tahs but Penney said the Wallabies captain and dual John Eales Medallist didn’t want any fanfare for the milestone.

“He’s been tremendous for us and whether he’s captain or not, he still has a massive leadership role for this group,” the coach said.

“But 150 games, I don’t know how many injury breaks he’s had. Not many. He’s just so resilient physically and mentally.”

And in a feelgood story, experienced hooker Rob Abel has returned to the Waratahs’ bubble after a stint doing youth work.

“It’s been a tumultuous time for poor old Robbie,” Penney said.

“This COVID thing has wreaked havoc across all the organisations and we’re no different.

“So he was allowed some leave time for personal reasons around getting some work, some extra income for his family.

“But we reached a point where we needed him back.”

This week’s predictions

Friday, August 14

Western Force v Waratahs
(CBUS Stadium, Gold Coast – Kick-off: 19.05; 09.05 GMT)

The Waratahs have won three of their last four Super Rugby games against the Force – including a 23-14 win when they met in Round Two of Super Rugby AU – despite having trailed at half-time on three occasions throughout that period.

The Force have won four of their last six Super Rugby games in Queensland (L2); although, they were defeated by the Reds in their only previous game in the state in Super Rugby AU (Round Three).

The Waratahs will be on the hunt for back-to-back Super Rugby wins for the first time since March 2019 after a thumping 45-12 win over the Reds in Round Six of Super Rugby AU.

The Waratahs have conceded just 4.2 offloads per game thus far in Super Rugby AU, fewer than any other team in the competition.

Henry Stowers (Force) has made a competition-high 71 tackles in Super Rugby AU; he has missed just five further attempts for a success rate of 93 percent.

Prediction:

@rugby365com: Waratahs by 12 points

Teams:

Western Force: 15 Jake Strachan, 14 Byron Ralston, 13 Kyle Godwin, 12 Richard Kahui, 11 Brad Lacey, 10 Jono Lance, 9 Ian Prior (captain), 8 Brynard Stander, 7 Kane Koteka, 6 Henry Stowers, 5 Fergus Lee Warner, 4 Jeremy Thrush, 3 Kieran Longbottom, 2 Feleti Kaitu’u, 1 Pek Cowan.
Replacements: 16 Andrew Ready, 17 Chris Heiberg, 18 Tom Sheminant, 19 Johan Bardoul, 20 Ollie Atkins, 21 Nick Frisby, 22 Nick Jooste, 23 Jack McGregor.

Waratahs: 15 Jack Maddocks, 14 James Ramm, 13 Lalakai Foketi, 12 Karmichael Hunt, 11 Alex Newsome, 10 Will Harrison, 9 Jake Gordon, 8 Jack Dempsey, 7 Michael Hooper, 6 Lachie Swinton, 5 Rob Simmons (captain), 4 Tom Staniforth, 3 Te Tetera Faulkner, 2 Tom Horton, 1 Tom Robertson.
Replacements: 16 Robbie Abel, 17 Angus Bell, 18 Harry Johnson-Holmes, 19 Ned Hanigan, 20 Hugh Sinclair, 21 Mitch Short, 22 Ben Donaldson, 23 Joey Walton.

Referee: Nic Berry
Assistant referees: Graham Cooper, Amy Perrett
TMO: Brett Cronan

Saturday, August 15

Reds v Rebels
(Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane – Kick-off: 19.15; 09.05 GMT)

The Rebels have won three of their last five Super Rugby games against the Reds at Suncorp Stadium (L2), including a 32-13 win when they met there last (Rd 7, 2019); they’ve not previously won back-to-back games against the Reds in Queensland.

The Reds have won five of their last six Super Rugby games on home turf (L1), including their last three on the bounce; they last time they won more consecutive home games was a five-game stretch across the 2013 and 2014 campaigns.

The Rebels have won three of their last four Super Rugby games away from home (L1), including their last two on the bounce; they have never previously won three
successive away games in the competition.

The Rebels have scored 34 points in the 61st minute of games or later in Super Rugby AU, more than any other team during this period.

The Reds’ James O’Connor has made five break assists so far in Super Rugby AU, the second-most of any player in the competition behind Joe Powell (9).

Prediction:

@rugby365com: Reds by five points

Teams:

Queensland Reds: 15 Jock Campbell, 14 Jordan Petaia, 13 Hunter Paisami, 12 Hamish Stewart, 11 Filipo Dauguna, 10 James O’Connor, 9 Tate McDermott, 8 Harry Wilson, 7 Fraser McReight, 6 Liam Wright, 5 Lukhan Salakaia-Loto, 4 Angus Blyth, 3 Taniela Tupou, 2 Brandon Paenga-Amosa, 1 Jack Straker.
Replacements: 16 Alex Mafi, 17 Jethro Felemi, 18 Zane Nonggorr, 19 Tuaina Taii Tualima, 20 Angus Scott-Young, 21 Scott Malolua, 22 Bryce Hegarty, 23 Josh Flook.

Melbourne Rebels: 15 Reece Hodge, 14 Andrew Kellaway, 13 Campbell Magnay, 12 Matt To’omua (captain), 11 Marika Koroibete, 10 Andrew Deegan, 9 Frank Lomani, 8 Isi Naisarani, 7 Brad Wilkin, 6 Josh Kemeny, 5 Trevor Hosea, 4 Matt Philip, 3 Pone Fa’amausili, 2 Jordan Uelese, 1 Cameron Orr.
Replacements: 16 Efitusi Maafu, 17 Cabous Eloff, 18 Charles Abel, 19 Esei Ha’angana, 20 Michael Wells, 21 Richard Hardwick, 22 James Tuttle, 23 Billy Meakes.

Referee: Damon Murphy
Assistant referees: Nic Berry, Jordan Way
TMO: Brett Cronan

SANZAAR & AAP