Super Rugby Pacific, Quarterfinals - Teams and Predictions

THE FINAL EIGHT: After 15 rounds of regular season action, we have arrived at the quarterfinals with just eight teams left standing for knockout footy.

With the brand-new Super Rugby Pacific trophy revealed this week, the stakes are high with a spot in the semifinals awaiting the four winners this weekend.

The action kicks off on Friday when the Crusaders host the Reds in a rematch of their highly competitive match last week which saw the home side prevail 28-15.

The Reds will fancy their chances after spending the whole week in the Garden City plotting the downfall of the highly fancied Kiwi outfit.

Reds head coach Brad Thorn is banking the impact of weapons Fraser McReight and Hunter Paisami off the bench to help his team finish off the Crusaders on Friday.

With co-captain Liam Wright returning from injury to replace McReight, who has been one of the Reds’ best, Thorn is gambling they will be in the fight at half-time before the livewire flanker makes his entry from the bench.

But he will consider early changes if required as the Reds look to end a horror 0-5 run against Kiwi teams.

They have been given little chance, with bookmakers quoting AUS$12.50 for a Queensland win.

Thorn said Wright gave them more grunt at the set-piece.

“We’ll be ready to adapt to any situation,” Thorn said on Thursday from Christchurch.

“Liam Wright coming in is our co-captain, supporting Tate [McDermott], and just around our set-piece and line-out with his knowledge and experience there.

“The Crusaders started well [last week] and we were trying to fight back from that and I was really pleased that our finishers came on and brought energy and Fraser is going to be a really important part of that.

“Back in the 1980s or 90s you only got on with an injury but squads of 23 are so important – they often come on when it’s crunch time.

“Every team wants to start well, it’s important, but we think those guys on the bench can bring real energy.”

Hit-man Paisami has been sidelined for a month with a shoulder injury and Thorn said it “makes sense” not to try to get 80 minutes out of the Wallabies centre.

🕺🏽 Who are you picking to make it through to the big dance in 2022?#SRPFINALS pic.twitter.com/vhUnSxXm6v

— Super Rugby Pacific (@SuperRugby) June 1, 2022

The Crusaders have been bolstered by the return of All Blacks trio Jack Goodhue, Richie Mo’unga and Codie Taylor.

Former Argentina skipper Pablo Matera is in the Crusaders’ starting side after he escaped further sanction from SANZAAR despite dumping Reds centre Jordan Petaia on his head during a clean-out last Friday.

Thorn said he had contacted officials about the inconsistency in their decision given Highlanders flyhalf Sam Gilbert was banned for five weeks for a similar tackle of Waratahs flank Michael Hooper.

He said though that the Reds needed to put it behind them.

“I don’t really understand it,” Thorn said of the lack of penalty beyond a yellow card.

“We have had time with officials … going on the NSW game with the Highlanders the week before, the outcome there, just the consistency, and also the safety of players.

“It was positive feedback but it’s gone now and it’s all about Friday.”

Saturday sees three quarterfinal matches played with the Chiefs and Waratahs squaring off first at Waikato Stadium. The Waratahs have been in hot form in recent weeks and will be hoping to upset a Chiefs side desperate to impress in their first home playoff game since 2013.

The table-topping Blues host the eighth-placed Highlanders in a potential banana skin clash at Eden Park on Saturday. While the form book suggests the Blues should have no trouble against their southern rivals, anything can happen in knockout footy and the Highlanders loom as a potential grenade in the path of a first Super Rugby title for the powerhouse club since 2003 (when only counting full Super Rugby regular season competitions).

In the only quarterfinal to be played in Australia, the Brumbies host the Hurricanes at Canberra Stadium.

The Brumbies dismantled the Hurricanes 42-25 in Canberra back in Round 11 but will no doubt find a tougher opponent this time with a spot in the final four on the line.

See the Round 15 teams and predictions below!

🔥 It’s finals time! Catch up on all the team-lists, stats, big stories and key information ahead of the quarterfinals below.#SRPFINALS

— Super Rugby Pacific (@SuperRugby) June 2, 2022

Friday, June 3:

Crusaders v Reds
(Christchurch Stadium, Christchurch – Kick-off: 19.05; 17.05 AEST; 07.05 GMT)

The Crusaders have won their last 10 consecutive Super Rugby games against the Queensland Reds, including a 28-15 win when they met in the final regular season round of the 2022 Super Rugby Pacific season.

This will be the fourth post-season meeting between the Crusaders and Queensland Reds in Super Rugby competitions and the first since 2013; the Crusaders have won two of their past three finals meetings, although the Reds were successful in their only Grand Final meeting (18-13 in 2011).

The Crusaders have won their last 10 consecutive finals games in Super Rugby, leading at half-time on the day in all 10 of those fixtures; their last post-season defeat came at the hands of the Lions in 2016 (25-42).

The Crusaders have won 13 of their last 14 Super Rugby games against Australian opposition (L1), including their last three on the bounce and haven’t lost at home to an Australian outfit since the opening round of the 2015 campaign against the Melbourne Rebels (10-20).

The Queensland Reds have won two of their last three Super Rugby finals games (L1) and have won two of their last three finals games against New Zealand opposition (L1) despite scoring more than 18 points in a game only once in that period.

The Queensland Reds have lost their last eight Super Rugby games away from home against teams based outside Australia, scoring more than 20 points in a game only twice in that span.

The Crusaders have made 71 dominant tackles in the 2022 Super Rugby Pacific season, the most of any team in the competition and 37 more than the Queensland Reds (34, =9th).

Prediction

@rugby365com: Crusaders by 14 points.

Teams:

Crusaders: 15 Will Jordan, 14 Sevu Reece, 13 Jack Goodhue, 12 David Havili, 11 Leicester Fainga’anuku, 10 Richie Mo’unga, 9 Bryn Hall, 8 Cullen Grace, 7 Ethan Blackadder, 6 Pablo Matera, 5 Sam Whitelock, 4 Scott Barrett (captain), 3 Oli Jager, 2 Codie Taylor, 1 George Bower.
Replacements: 16 Brodie McAlister, 17 Finlay Brewis, 18 Fletcher Newell, 19 Zach Gallagher, 20 Tom Christie, 21 Mitch Drummond, 22 Braydon Ennor, 23 George Bridge.

Reds: 15 Jock Campbell, 14 Suliasi Vunivalu, 13 Jordan Petaia, 12 Hamish Stewart, 11 Filipo Daugunu, 10 Lawson Creighton, 9 Tate McDermott (co-captain), 8 Harry Wilson, 7 Liam Wright (co-captain), 6 Seru Uru, 5 Angus Blyth, 4 Ryan Smith, 3 Feao Fotuaika, 2 Matt Faessler, 1 Harry Hoopert.
Replacements: 16 Richie Asiata, 17 Dane Zander, 18 Sef Fa’agase, 19 Connor Vest, 20 Angus Scott-Young, 21 Fraser McReight, 22 Kalani Thomas, 23 Hunter Paisami.

Referee: Brendon Pickerill
Assistant referees: James Doleman, Angus Mabey
TMO: Glenn Newman

Saturday, June 4:

Chiefs v Waratahs
(Waikato Stadium, Hamilton – Kick-off: 16.35; 14.35 AEST; 04.35 GMT)

The Chiefs have won their last five straight Super Rugby games against the Waratahs, as many as they had won in their 18 clashes in Super Rugby competitions prior (W5, L13); this will be the first time that the two teams have ever met in the finals.

The Chiefs have won six of their last eight Super Rugby games at home against the Waratahs (L2), including their last two on the bounce across which they’ve scored an average of 43 points per game.

The Chiefs have lost their last four post-season games in Super Rugby competitions, their longest stretch in such fixtures; the last time they won a Super Rugby finals game was in 2017 against the Stormers (17-11).

The Chiefs have won six of their last seven Super Rugby games against Australian opposition (L1), including their last two on the bounce; they have won 12 of their last 14 home games against teams from Australia (L2).

The Waratahs have won three of their last five finals games in Super Rugby competitions (L2) but have never won a finals game away from home in the history of the competition (L6).

The Chiefs have made 10 offloads per game this Super Rugby Pacific campaign, the joint-most of any team in the competition; though, the Waratahs’ eight offloads per game are the most of any Australian team.

The Waratahs have stolen 21 line-outs throughout the 2022 Super Rugby Pacific season, the second- most of any team in the competition behind only the Western Force (25).

Prediction

@rugby365com: Chiefs by seven points.

Teams:

Chiefs: 15 Emoni Narawa, 14 Jonah Lowe, 13 Alex Nankivell, 12 Quinn Tupaea, 11 Etene Nanai-Seturo, 10 Bryn Gatland, 9 Brad Weber (captain), 8 Pita Gus Sowakula, 7 Luke Jacobson, 6 Samipeni Finau, 5 Tupou Vaa’i, 4 Brodie Retallick, 3 Angus Ta’avao, 2 Samisoni Taukei’aho, 1 Aidan Ross.
Replacements: 16 Bradley Slater, 17 Ollie Norris, 18 Atu Moli, 19 Naitoa Ah Khoi, 20 Mitch Brown, 21 Xavier Roe, 22 Josh Ioane, 23 Rameka Poihipi.

Waratahs: 15 Ben Donaldson, 14 Mark Nawaqanitawase, 13 Alex Newsome, 12 Lalakai Foketi, 11 Dylan Pietsch, 10 Tane Edmed, 9 Jake Gordon (captain), 8 Will Harris, 7 Michael Hooper, 6 Charlie Gamble, 5 Ned Hanigan, 4 Jed Holloway, 3 Harry Johnson-Holmes, 2 Dave Porecki, 1 Angus Bell.
Replacements: 16 Tom Horton, 17 Paddy Ryan, 18 Archer Holz, 19 Hugh Sinclair, 20 Jeremy Williams, 21 Langi Gleeson, 22 Jack Grant, 23 Jamie Roberts.

Referee: Nic Berry
Assistant referees: Jordan Way, Dan Waenga
TMO: Chris Hart

Blues v Highlanders
(Eden Park, Auckland – Kick-off: 19.05; 07.05 GMT)

The Blues have won six of their last seven Super Rugby games against the Highlanders (L1) including their last three on the bounce; the last time they won more in succession against the Highlanders was a six-game stretch from 2007 to 2011.

This will be the third time that the Blues and Highlanders have clashed in the finals of a Super Rugby campaign with the Blues having won both of their previous two encounters (1998 semifinal, 2021 Trans-Tasman final).

The Blues have won their last 13 straight Super Rugby games, a club record; in fact, only three times in Super Rugby history has any team enjoyed a longer winning streak with the Crusaders holding all three of those records.

The Blues have won nine of their 10 Super Rugby finals games when playing at home on the day (L1) while the Highlanders have lost their last five consecutive finals games at any venue.

The Highlanders have lost their last nine consecutive Super Rugby games against fellow New Zealand teams, their joint-longest losing streak in such fixtures.

The Blues have scored 3.1 points per entry into the opposition 22m zone this Super Rugby Pacific season, the most of any team in the competition.

The Highlanders made just 36 percent of their total metres post contact in the 2022 Super Rugby Pacific regular season, the lowest rate of any team in the competition and four percentage points lower than the Blues (40 percent).

Prediction

@rugby365com: Blues by 11 points.

Teams:

Blues: 15 Stephen Perofeta, 14 Bryce Heem, 13 Rieko Ioane, 12 Roger Tuivasa-Sheck, 11 Mark Telea, 10 Beauden Barrett, 9 Finlay Christie, 8 Hoskins Sotutu, 7 Dalton Papalii (captain), 6 Akira Ioane, 5 Tom Robinson, 4 James Tucker, 3 Ofa Tuungafasi, 2 Kurt Eklund, 1 Alex Hodgman.
Replacements: 16 Soane Vikena, 17 Karl Tu’inukuafe, 18 Nepo Laulala, 19 Luke Romano, 20 Adrian Choat, 21 Sam Nock, 22 AJ Lam, 23 Zarn Sullivan.

Highlanders: 15 Connor Garden-Bachop, 14 Fetuli Paea, 13 Thomas Umaga-Jensen, 12 Scott Gregory, 11 Mosese Dawai, 10 Marty Banks, 9 Aaron Smith (captain), 8 Marino Mikaele-Tu’u, 7 Billy Harmon, 6 High Renton, 5 Josh Dickson, 4 Bryn Evans, 3 Jermaine Ainsley, 2 Andrew Makalio, 1 Ethan de Groot.
Replacements: 16 Leni Apisai, 17 Daniel Lienert-Brown, 18 Saula Mau, 19 Max Hicks, 20 Shannon Frizell, 21 Folau Fakatava, 22 Liam Coombes-Fabling, 23 Denny Solomona.

Referee: Angus Gardner
Assistant referees: Ben O’Keeffe, Stu Curran
TMO: James Leckie

Brumbies v Hurricanes
(Canberra Stadium, Canberra – Kick-off 19.45; 21.45 NZST; 09.45 GMT)

The Brumbies have won both of their two Super Rugby meetings with the Hurricanes since the beginning of 2020 after having picked up just two wins from their six previous clashes with them in the competition (L4).

This will be the fourth post-season meeting between the Brumbies and Hurricanes in Super Rugby; the Hurricanes have won their last two finals encounters in 2015 and 2017 after losing their first such game in 1997.

The Brumbies have won nine of their last 11 Super Rugby finals games on home soil (L2), including their last three in succession; although, their last defeat in such a fixture came in the 2017 play-offs against the Hurricanes (16-35).

The Hurricanes will be out to avoid back-to-back losses against Australian teams for the first time since March 2014 after succumbing to a 22-27 loss to the Western Force in their final game of the 2022 Super Rugby Pacific regular season.

The Hurricanes have won only one of their 10 previous finals games when playing away from home in Super Rugby (L9); although, that single victory came against the Brumbies in the 2017 play-offs (35-16).

The Brumbies have made a kick in play once every 3.1 rucks in the 2022 Super Rugby Pacific season, the most frequent of any team in the competition, while the Hurricanes have done so once every 5.5 rucks, the second-least frequent of any team.

The Hurricanes have run for 369 post contact metres per game in the 2022 Super Rugby Pacific season, the most of any team in the competition, while only the Melbourne Rebels (216m) have made fewer per game than the Brumbies (225m).

Prediction

@rugby365com: Brumbies by four points.

Teams:

Brumbies: 15 Tom Banks, 14 Tom Wright, 13 Len Ikitau, 12 Irae Simone, 11 Andy Muirhead, 10 Noah Lolesio, 9 Nic White, 8 Pete Samu, 7 Luke Reimer, 6 Tom Hooper, 5 Caderyn Neville, 4 Darcy Swain, 3 Allan Alaalatoa, 2 Folau Fainga’a, 1 James Slipper.
Replacements: 16 Lachlan Lonergan, 17 Scott Sio, 18 Sefo Kautai, 19 Nick Frost, 20 Rory Scott, 21 Jahrome Brown, 22 Ryan Lonergan, 23 Ollie Sapsford.

Hurricanes: 15 Josh Moorby, 14 Julian Savea, 13 Billy Proctor, 12 Jordie Barrett, 11 Salesi Rayasi, 10 Aidan Morgan, 9 TJ Perenara, 8 Ardie Savea (captain), 7 Du’Plessis Kirifi, 6 Blake Gibson, 5 Isaia Walker-Leawere, 4 James Blackwell, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Dane Coles, 1 Tevita Mafileo.
Replacements: 16 Asafo Aumua, 17 Pouri Rakete-Stones, 18 Tyrel Lomax, 19 Caleb Delany, 20 Brayden Iose, 21 Jamie Booth, 22 Ruben Love, 23 Wes Goosen.

Referee: Paul Williams
Assistant referees: Mike Fraser, Mike Winter
TMO: Richard Kelly

Source: AAP & @SuperRugby

*Statistical information provided by Opta Data