Super Rugby Pacific, Round 14 - Teams and Predictions

PREVIEW: With just two rounds remaining until the playoffs, round 14 provides an opportunity for teams to lock up a home playoff or confirm their spot in the top eight.

The action kicks off on Friday when the Crusaders host the Fijian Drua in a game that should provide no shortage of entertainment. The Queensland Reds then host Moana Pasifika in a game that could keep their slim home playoff hopes alive.

It is a triple-header on Saturday with the Chiefs hosting the Western Force in an afternoon clash at FMG Stadium Waikato. A Chiefs win will see them close in on a home playoff spot while a victory for the Force will keep the door slightly ajar for a spot in the top eight.

Then it is a blockbuster to close out Saturday with the Brumbies hosting table-topping Blues in Canberra.

Round 14 is capped off on Sunday when the Highlanders host the Waratahs at Forsyth Barr Stadium. A win for the Highlanders will all but confirm their spot in the quarterfinals.

Queensland Reds coach Brad Thorn has turned to the sage words of his former NRL mentor Wayne Bennett as they attempt to halt a four-game Super Rugby Pacific losing streak.

The Reds (7-5) have tumbled from equal first to seventh ahead of their penultimate round clash against newcomers Moana Pasifika (1-10) at Suncorp Stadium on Friday night.

It’s no coincidence that slide has come since the resumption of trans-Tasman competition, although injuries to key pair James O’Connor and Taniela Tupou as well as a host of others have exacerbated concerns at Ballymore.

O’Connor and last week’s key omissions Harry Wilson (concussion) and Fraser McReight (illness) are back on deck though, the Reds hoping to salvage their season before a likely quarter-final against rivals the Brumbies in Canberra.

“It’s been an interesting year; you have Covid, you have injuries then you have like, the flu,” former Brisbane Broncos and All Blacks forward Thorn said.

“You can’t take a trick sometimes but at this time of year, I remember Wayne always said, it’s about having your full deck and the other thing is momentum.

“That’s what we’ll be trying to build this week, then against the Crusaders [in the final round].

“Whatever happens, week one of the finals, we want to compete.”

Wilson’s return will be key given he’s statistically the most damaging ball-runner in this year’s competition.

But he’s improved in other areas too.

“He’s really grown, Wilso,” Thorn said of the No.8, who was badly concussed attempting to score a fortnight ago in a tough loss to the Highlanders.

“There’s a lot more chat around the team; he’s really starting to show some leadership in the group and he’s had a good season, played some good footy.”

The Reds will look to avoid a fifth-straight loss for the first time since 2018, while they haven’t lost three consecutive home games since 2016.

All that’s come after the Reds finished last season as domestic champions and committed to ending New Zealand’s dominance in 2022.

“Apart from the Blues [last week], they were too good, but the three games before that we were leading, had some close results,” Thorn said.

“Last year we were getting pumped [by the NZ teams] so the guys have improved, but we haven’t got what we wanted, we want to win.”

See the Round 14 teams and predictions below!

Friday, May 20

Crusaders v Fijian Drua
(Orangetheory Stadium, Christchurch – Kick-off: 19:05; 19.05 FJT; 07.05 GMT)

This will be the first Super Rugby match between the Crusaders and Fijian Drua; the Crusaders have won their last four matches in the competition when facing a team for the first time on the day, as many as they won in all their 15 such fixtures prior in the competition (W4, D2, L9).

The Crusaders have lost two of their last three Super Rugby Pacific games on home turf (W1), as many as they had lost in their 45 Super Rugby home games prior (W42, D1).

The Crusaders have lost only one of their last 20 Super Rugby games against teams from outside New Zealand (W17, D2), restricting their opposition to fewer than 30 points in every one of those games.

The Fijian Drua will be looking to log back-to-back wins in Super Rugby Pacific for the first time after a 34-19 win over Moana Pasifika in Round 13 of this season; it was their most points scored and fewest conceded in a game in the competition thus far.

The Fijian Drua were defeated 67-5 by the Hurricanes in their last Super Rugby Pacific game in New Zealand (8 May 2022); it was the joint-tenth biggest defeat by any team in Super Rugby history and the biggest since June 2019 (Crusaders def. Melbourne Rebels, 66-0).

The Fijian Drua have retained possession on 15% of their total kicks in play (24/162) in the 2022 Super Rugby Pacific season, the joint-highest rate of any team in the competition (also Western Force – 15 percent).

The Crusaders have gained 205 metres from mauls this Super Rugby Pacific season, the most of any team in the competition; the Fijian Drua (37) are ranked last in this category.

The Fijian Drua have made 106 offloads in the 2022 Super Rugby Pacific season, the second most by any team (Chiefs – 123) and 15 more than the Crusaders (91).

Will Jordan (Crusaders) has gained 1,014 metres in the 2022 Super Rugby Pacific season, the most of any player in the competition; the Fijian Drua’s best Vinaya Habosi (845) is ranked third in this category (Manasa Mataele – 908 for Western Force).

Apisalome Vota (Fijian Drua) has made seven tackles resulting in a turnover won this Super Rugby Pacific season, the most of any player in the competition; no Crusaders player has logged more than two in this category.

Prediction

@rugby365com: Crusaders by 20 points

Teams:

Crusaders: 15 Chay Fihaki, 14 Sevu Reece, 13 Braydon Ennor, 12 Jack Goodhue, 11 Leicester Fainga’anuku, 10 Fergus Burke, 9 Bryn Hall, 8 Ethan Blackadder, 7 Tom Christie, 6 Scott Barrett (captain), 5 Sam Whitelock, 4 Zach Gallagher, 3 Fletcher Newell, 2 Ricky Jackson, 1 Finlay Brewis
Replacements: 16 Shilo Klein, 17 Tamaiti Williams, 18 Oli Jager, 19 Dominic Gardiner, 20 Corey Kellow, 21 Mitch Drummond, 22 Simon Hickey, 23 George Bridge

Fijian Drua: 15 Kitione Taliga, 14 Selestino Ravutaumada, 13 Kalaveti Ravouvou, 12 Teti Tela, 11 Vinaya Habosi, 10 Caleb Muntz, 9 Peni Matawalu, 8 Nemani Nagusa (captain), 7 Mesulame Dolokoto, 6 Joseva Tamani, 5 Ratu Rotuisolia, 4 Isoa Nasilasila, 3 Samuela Tawake, 2 Zuriel Togiatama, 1 Kaliopasi Uluilakepa
Replacements: 16 Tevita Ikanivere, 17 Haereiti Hetet, 18 Manasa Saulo, 19 Chris Minimbi, 20 Raikabula Momoedonu, 21 Leone Nawai, 22 Ilaisa Droasese, 23 Tuidraki Samusamuvodre

Referee: Angus Mabey
Assistant referees: Brendon Pickerill & Jono Bredin
TMO: Glenn Newman

Reds v Moana Pasifika
(Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane – Kick-off: 19:45; 22.45 Samoa time; 09.45 GMT)

This will be the first Super Rugby match between the Queensland Reds and Moana Pasifika; the Reds have won six of their last seven matches in the competition when facing a team for the first time (L1), including each of their last two – their only defeat in that span was a 22-8 loss to the Jaguares (25 March 2017).

The Queensland Reds have lost their last four consecutive Super Rugby Pacific games; the last time they lost more in succession in Super Rugby competitions was a five-game stretch from May to June in 2018.

The Queensland Reds have lost their last two games at home in Super Rugby Pacific and will be looking to avoid a third straight home loss for the first time since March 2016.

Moana Pasifika have lost their last eight consecutive Super Rugby Pacific games; though, they have scored 20+ points in a game twice in their last three games after doing so only once in their eight games prior.

Moana Pasifika have gained 21% of their total metres from kick returns (888/4286) in the 2022 Super Rugby Pacific season, the second highest rate of any team in the competition (Crusaders – 22 percent).

The Queensland Reds have received 11 yellow cards in the 2022 Super Rugby Pacific season, the most of any team in the competition; Moana Pasifika (7) have received the joint-second most by any side in the campaign.

Moana Pasifika have a scrum success rate of 84 percent this Super Rugby Pacific season, the lowest of any team in the competition; the Queensland Reds (92 percent) have logged the highest rate of any Australian team in this category.

Only the NSW Waratahs (13) have conceded more penalties per game than Moana Pasifika (12) and the Queensland Reds (12) in the 2022 Super Rugby Pacific campaign.

Harry Wilson (Queensland Reds) has crossed the gainline on 95 carries in the 2022 Super Rugby Pacific season, the most of any player in the competition and 26 more than Moana Pasifika’s best Henry Stowers (69).

Timoci Tavatavanawai (Moana Pasifika) has made 56 tackle breaks in the 2022 Super Rugby Pacific season, the most of any player in the competition and 29 more than the Queensland Reds’ best Jordan Petaia (27).

Prediction

@rugby365com: Reds by seven points.

Teams:

Reds: 15 Jock Campbell, 14 Suliasi Vunivalu, 13 Josh Flook, 12 Hamish Stewart, 11 Jordan Petaia, 10 James O’Connor, 9 Tate McDermott (Captain), 8 Harry Wilson, 7 Fraser McReight, 6 Seru Uru, 5 Angus Blyth, 4 Ryan Smith, 3 Feao Fotuaika, 2 Matt Faessler, 1 Harry Hoopert
Replacements: 16 Richie Asiata, 17 Dane Zander, 18 Sef Fa’agase, 19 Connor Vest, 20 Angus Scott-Young, 21 Kalani Thomas, 22 Lawson Creighton, 23 Filipo Daugunu

Moana Pasifika: 15 William Havili, 14 Tomasi Alosio, 13 Solomone Kata, 12 Danny Toala, 11 Timoci Tavatavanawai, 10 Christian Leali’ifano, 9 Jonathan Taumateine, 8 Henry Time-Stowers, 7 Solomone Funaki, 6 Sione Tu’ipulotu, 5 Samuel Slade, 4 Michael Curry, 3 Sekope Kepu (captain), 2 Ray Niuia, 1 Abraham Pole
Replacements: 16 Luteru Tolai, 17 Ezekiel Lindenmuth, 18 Joe ‘Apikotoa, 19 Alex McRobbie, 20 Jack Lam, 21 Ereatara Enari, 22 Lincoln McClutchie, 23 Henry Taefu

Referee: Graham Cooper
Assistant referees: Jordan Way & Reuben Keane
TMO: Brett Cronan

Saturday, May 21

Chiefs v Western Force
(FMG Stadium Waikato, Hamilton – Kick-off: 16:35; 14.35 AWST; 04.35 GMT)

The Chiefs have won eight of their last nine Super Rugby matches against the Western Force (L1), including their last four in succession; their only defeat in that span was a 18-15 loss in March 2014.

The Chiefs have won all five of their previous home games against the Western Force in Super Rugby competitions, including a 53-10 win when they last hosted them (26 March 2016) – the biggest win in the history of this fixture.

The Chiefs have lost three of their last four Super Rugby Pacific games at home (W1), including a 10-point defeat to the Brumbies in their last home game in the competition (38-28 – 7 May 2022); they had won five consecutive home games prior to that five-game stretch.

The Western Force have lost 15 of their last 17 Super Rugby games including their last six in succession and have conceded 50+ points in their last two games; only once in Super Rugby history has any team conceded 50+ points in three consecutive games (Sunwolves in Round 14-16, 2016).

The Western Force’s last Super Rugby win against a New Zealand outfit was an 18-15 win against the Chiefs in Round 6, 2014; they have since logged 24 consecutive defeats to New Zealand teams.

The Chiefs have an 82% goalkicking accuracy on place kicks (53/65) in the 2022 Super Rugby Pacific season, the best rate of any team in the competition and 12 percentage points higher than the Western Force (70 percent).

The Western Force have made 20 lineout steals in the 2022 Super Rugby Pacific season, the most of any team in the competition and six more than the Chiefs (14).

The Chiefs have scored nine tries starting possession from a kick return this Super Rugby Pacific season, the joint-most by any team in the competition (also Crusaders – 9) and six more than the Western Force (3).

Quinn Tupaea (Chiefs) has made dominant contact on 38 carries in the 2022 Super Rugby Pacific season, the most of any player in the competition and nine more than Western Force’ best Manasa Mataele (29).

Santiago Medrano (Western Force) has conceded 19 penalties in the 2022 Super Rugby Pacific season, the most of any player in the competition and nine more than any Chiefs player (Quinn Tupaea – 10).

Prediction

@rugby365com: Chiefs by three points.

Teams: 

Chiefs: 15 Kaleb Trask, 14 Emoni Narawa, 13 Rameka Pohipi, 12 Quinn Tupaea, 11 Chase Tiatia, 10 Bryn Gatland, 9 Brad Weber, 8 Luke Jacobson, 7 Sam Cane, 6 Pita Gus Sowakula, 5 Tupou Vaa’i, 4 Josh Lord, 3 Angus Ta’avao, 2 Bradley Slater, 1 Aidan Ross
Replacements: 16 Samisoni Taukei’aho, 17 Josh Bartlett, 18 George Dyer, 19 Samipeni Finau, 20 Mitch Brown, 21 Kaylum Boshier, 22 Xavier Roe, 23 Rameka Poihipi

Western Force: 15 Jake Strachan, 14 Byron Ralston, 13 Kyle Godwin, 12 Reesjan Pasitoa, 11 Toni Pulu, 10 Jake McIntyre, 9 Ian Prior, 8 Jackson Pugh, 7 Tim Anstee, 6 Fergus Lee-Warner, 5 Izack Rodda, 4 Ryan McCauley, 3 Santiago Medrano, 2 Feleti Kaitu’u (captain), 1 Tom Robertson
Replacements: 16 Andrew Ready, 17 Angus Wagner, 18 Bo Abra, 19 Jeremy Thrush, 20 Will Sankey, 21 Michael McDonald, 22 Richard Kahui, 23 Brad Lacey

Referee: James Doleman
Assistant referees: Ben O’Keeffe & Dan Waenga
TMO: Chris Hart

Hurricanes v Rebels
(Sky Stadium, Wellington – Kick-off: 19:05; 17.05 AEST; 07.05 GMT)

The Hurricanes have won eight of their nine Super Rugby matches against the Melbourne Rebels (L1) and have won their last eight meetings on the bounce; they have scored 44 points per game in those wins.

The Hurricanes have won all five of their previous home games against the Melbourne Rebels by an average margin of 33 points per game; indeed, only once in that period have they conceded 20 points or more in a game.

The Hurricanes have won their last three consecutive home games in Super Rugby Pacific by a combined score of 150-34, including a 67-5 win in their last home game – their second biggest ever home win in a Super Rugby game.

The Hurricanes have won their last 13 consecutive home games against Australian teams in Super Rugby; in fact, their last defeat in such a fixture came in Round 10, 2015.

The Melbourne Rebels have lost their last eight straight Super Rugby games against New Zealand teams by an average of 24 points per game; their last win against a New Zealand team came away to the Highlanders in Round 5, 2020.

The Hurricanes (28 percent) and Melbourne Rebels (27 percent) have made dominant contact on a higher percentage of their total carries than any other teams in the 2022 Super Rugby Pacific season.

The Hurricanes have made 15 offloads resulting in a break this Super Rugby Pacific season, the joint-most by any team in the competition (also Blues – 15); the Melbourne Rebels (11) have logged the most by any Australian team in the campaign.

The Melbourne Rebels have a tackle success rate of 71 percent in the 2022 Super Rugby Pacific season, the lowest of any team in the competition and six percentage points fewer than the Hurricanes (77 percent).

Jordie Barrett (Hurricanes) has made 129 carries in the 2022 Super Rugby Pacific season, the most by any back and the second most of any player overall (Harry Wilson – 156 for Queensland Reds).

Reece Hodge (Melbourne Rebels) has conceded 22 turnovers this Super Rugby Pacific season; only the Hurricanes’ Jordie Barrett (24) and Crusaders’ Will Jordan (24) have logged more in the campaign.

Prediction

@rugby365com: Hurricanes by seven points.

Teams: 

Hurricanes: 15 Ruben Love, 14 Julian Savea, 13 Billy Proctor, 12 Jordie Barrett, 11 Salesi Rayasi, 10 Aidan Morgan, 9 TJ Perenara, 8 TK Howden, 7 Du’Plessis Kirifi, 6 Blake Gibson, 5 Isaia Walker-Leawere, 4 James Blackwell, 3 Tyrel Lomax, 2 Dane Coles, 1 Tevita Mafileo
Replacements: 16 Asafo Aumua, 17 Pouri Rakete-Stones, 18 Owen Franks, 19 Scott Scrafton, 20 Caleb Delany, 21 Jamie Booth, 22 Jackson Garden-Bachop, 23 Wes Goosen

Rebels: 15 Reece Hodge, 14 George Worth, 13 Andrew Kellaway, 12 Matt To’omua, 11 Glen Vaihu, 10 Carter Gordon, 9 James Tuttle, 8 Tamati Ioane, 7 Brad Wilkin, 6 Michael Wells (captain), 5 Rob Leota, 4 Matt Philip, 3 Pone Fa’amausili, 2 Jordan Uelese, 1 Matt Gibbon
Replacements: 16 James Hanson, 17 Cameron Orr, 18 Cabous Eloff, 19 Josh Canham, 20 Richard Hardwick, 21 Joe Powell, 22 Lukas Ripley, 23 Nick Jooste

Referee: Paul Williams
Assistant referees: Mike Fraser & Mike Winter
TMO: Richard Kelly

Brumbies v Blues
(GIO Stadium, Canberra – Kick-off: 19:45; 21.45 NZST; 09.45 GMT)

The Blues have won four of their last five Super Rugby matches against the Brumbies (L1), more than they won across their six meetings prior in the competition (W2, L4).

The Brumbies won their most recent Super Rugby home match against the Blues (26-21, 4 May 2019); they will be aiming for back-to-back wins against the Blues at home for just the second time in the history of the competition (February 2004).

The Brumbies will be out to avoid back-to-back home losses in Super Rugby for the first time since May 2018 after succumbing to an 11-point loss to the Crusaders in their last home game.

The Brumbies have won three of their four games against New Zealand teams in the 2022 Super Rugby Pacific season; the last time they won more games against New Zealand teams in a single campaign was in 2004 when they won four of their five regular season games against them and then logged two more wins in the post-season.

The Blues have won 18 of their last 19 Super Rugby games including their last 11 on the bounce; a 12th consecutive win would equal their longest ever winning streak in the competition set back in the 1997 campaign.

The Blues have won their last nine straight games against Australian teams in Super Rugby competitions and have scored 124 points across their last two such fixtures; their last defeat to an Australian outfit came in Round 17, 2019 against the Queensland Reds.

The Blues have crossed the gainline on 67 percent  of their total carries this Super Rugby Pacific season, the best rate of any team in the competition and eight percentage points more than the Brumbies (59 percent).

The Brumbies (32) and Blues (32) have scored more tries starting possession from a lineout (inc. steals) than any other teams this Super Rugby Pacific season.

Nick Frost (Brumbies) has made six lineout steals in the 2022 Super Rugby Pacific season, the second most by any player in the competition (Izack Rodda – 9 for Western Force).

Rieko Ioane (Blues) has made four offloads resulting in a break this Super Rugby Pacific season, the second most by any player in the competition (Jordie Barrett – 5 for Hurricanes).

Prediction

@rugby365com: Blues by five points.

Teams:

Brumbies: 15 Tom Banks, 14 Tom Wright, 13 Len Ikitau, 12 Irae Simone, 11 Andy Muirhead, 10 Noah Lolesio, 9 Nic White, 8 Pete Samu, 7 Luke Reimer, 6 Tom Hooper, 5 Cadeyrn Neville, 4 Darcy Swain, 3 Allan Alaalatoa (captain), 2 Folau Fainga’a, 1 Scott Sio
Replacements: 16 Billy Pollard, 17 James Slipper, 18 Sefo Kautai, 19 Nick Frost, 20 Rory Scott, 21 Ryan Lonergan, 22 Hudson Creighton, 23 Ollie Sapsford

Blues: 15 Stephen Perofeta, 14 Mark Telea, 13 Bryce Heem, 12 Roger Tuivasa-Sheck, 11 Caleb Clarke, 10 Beauden Barrett, 9 Finlay Christie, 8 Hoskins Sotutu, 7 Dalton Papalii (captain), 6 Tom Robinson, 5 Sam Darry, 4 James Tucker, 3 Ofa Tu’ungafasi, 2 Kurt Eklund, 1 Alex Hodgman
Replacements: 16 Ricky Riccitelli, 17 Karl Tu’inukuafe, 18 Nepo Laulala, 19 Luke Romano, 20 Anton Segner, 21 Sam Nock, 22 Tanielu Tele’a, 23 Zarn Sullivan

Referee: Damon Murphy
Assistant referees: Angus Gardner & Jordan Way
TMO: James Leckie

Sunday, May 22

Highlanders v NSW Waratahs
Forsyth Barr Stadium, Dunedin – Kick-off: 15:35; 13.35 AEST; 03.35 GMT)

The Highlanders have won five of their last six Super Rugby matches in the regular season against the NSW Waratahs (L1), including each of their last two; they had won only five of all their 18 such fixtures in the competition prior to that span (L13).

The Highlanders have won their last six Super Rugby home matches on the bounce against the NSW Waratahs and have scored 40+ points in each of the last three games in that span.

The Highlanders have won 16 of their last 18 Super Rugby games on home turf against Australian squads, including a 61-10 win over the Western Force in their last such fixture (Round 13, 2022 Super Rugby Pacific).

The NSW Waratahs have won three of their last four Super Rugby Pacific games away from home, including a 26-20 win over Moana Pasifika in their last game on the road (Round 12, 2022); they had won only two of their 16 away games prior to that four-game stretch.

The NSW Waratahs have won only one of their last 13 Super Rugby games against New Zealand opposition and haven’t won away to a New Zealand club since a 29-24 win over the Hurricanes in Round 10, 2015.

The Highlanders have a 91 percent accuracy on their lineout throws (136/150) in the 2022 Super Rugby Pacific season, the best rate of any team in the competition and five percentage points higher than the NSW Waratahs (86 percent).

The NSW Waratahs have scored seven tries from mauls in the 2022 Super Rugby Pacific season, the most of any team in the competition and two more than the Highlanders (5).

Only the Chiefs (12) have scored more tries starting possession from a scrum than the Highlanders (8) in the 2022 Super Rugby Pacific campaign; the NSW Waratahs have scored seven tries via this method.

Highlanders’ duo Sam Gilbert (8/8 – 100 percent) and Marty Banks (11/12 – 92 percent) have the best goalkicking accuracies on place kicks of any players in the 2022 Super Rugby Pacific season (min. 4 attempts).

Jed Holloway (NSW Waratahs) has won 63 lineouts (inc. 5 steals) in the 2022 Super Rugby Pacific season, the most by any player in the campaign and 26 more than the Highlanders’ best Josh Dickson (37).

Prediction

@rugby365com: Highlanders by seven points.

Teams: 

Highlanders: 15 Connor Garden-Bachop, 14 Denny Solomona, 13 Josh Timu, 12 Thomas Umaga-Jensen, 11 Scott Gregory, 10 Sam Gilbert, 9 Aaron Smith, 8 Marino Mikaele-Tu’u, 7 Billy Harmon, 6 James Lentjes, 5 Josh Dickson, 4 Sam Caird, 3 Jermaine Ainsley, 2 Liam Coltman, 1 Daniel Lienert-Brown
Replacements: 16 Andrew Makalio, 17 Luca Inch, 18 Saula Mau, 19 Max Hicks, 20 Hugh Renton, 21 Folau Fakatava, 22 Mitch Hunt, 23 Fetuli Paea

Waratahs: 15 Ben Donaldson, 14 Mark Nawaqanitawase, 13 Alex Newsome, 12 Lalakai Foketi, 11 Dylan Pietsch, 10 Tane Edmed, 9 Jake Gordon, 8 Will Harris, 7 Michael Hooper, 6 Langi Gleeson, 5 Hugh Sinclair, 4 Geoff Cridge, 3 Archer Holz, 2 Dave Porecki, 1 Te Tera Faulkner
Replacements: 16 Mahe Vailanu, 17 Angus Bell, 18 Paddy Ryan, 19 Jeremy Williams, 20 Ned Hanigan, 21 Rahboni Warren-Vosayaco, 22 Jack Grant, 23 Jamie Roberts

Referee: Nic Berry
Assistant referees: Brendon Pickerill & Angus Mabey
TMO: Chris Hart

Source: AAP & @SuperRugby

*Statistical information provided by Opta Data