Super Rugby Pacific, Round eight - Teams and Predictions

BUSINESS END: Super Rugby Pacific reaches the halfway point of the regular season this weekend and plenty of intrigue remains as to which eight teams will secure the coveted playoff spots at the conclusion of the full 15 rounds.

The Highlanders and Moana Pasifika kick off the action at Forsyth Barr Stadium on Friday. Although they occupy the bottom of the ladder, a win for either side will catapult them up the table and on the cusp of the top eight.

It’s an equally important clash for the Western Force and the Melbourne Rebels later on Friday at HBF Park. The Force are poised in seventh place and a win over the Rebels will push them deep inside the top eight and markedly improve their playoff chances.

It’s a Super Saturday with three pivotal games happening across New Zealand and Australia.

The Hurricanes host the Crusaders at Sky Stadium in a clash crucial to their playoff chances. The Hurricanes currently sit in eighth place on the ladder with two wins and three losses, and will be desperate for a win over the formidable Crusaders to show that they are a force to be reckoned with in 2022.

It’s then over to the Battle of the Bombay’s when the Chiefs roll out the welcome mat to neighbours the Blues. Both teams have been in imperious form in 2022 and another classic is sure to be played between these two North Island rivals.

Round Eight is capped off with a tantalising clash between the Fijian Drua and Brumbies at Suncorp Stadium.

The Brumbies sit at the top of the log but will be eager to bounce back from their 7-21 loss to the Reds in round seven. The Fijian Drua have looked dangerous in every outing in 2022 and will be desperate to notch up their second competition win and keep their playoff hopes alive.

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Round Eight teams and predictions below!

Friday, April 8

Highlanders v Moana Pasifika
(Forsyth Barr Stadium, Dunedin – Kick-off: 19.05; 07.05 GMT)

This will be the first meeting between the Highlanders and Moana Pasifika in SuperRugby; the Highlanders have won five of their last six games in the competition when facing a team for the firsttime.

The Highlanders have lost their last seven consecutive Super Rugby games, their longest losing streak in the competition since an 11 game stretch from June 2012 to April 2013

The Highlanders have won 16 of their last 19 Super Rugby games at home against teams from outside New Zealand (D1,L2), including their last three on the bounce.

Moana Pasifika have lost four of their five games in Super Rugby thus far(W1), including back-to-back defeats to the Blues in Round 7 of this Super Rugby Pacific campaign; they’ve scored 20+ points in a game only once but went on to win that game on the day (24-19 v Hurricanes, March 25, 2022).

Only the Crusaders(94%) have a higher success rate from mauls in the 2022 Super Rugby Pacific season than the Highlanders(91%) and MoanaPasifika(90%).

The Highlanders have scored five tries starting possession from a scrum in the 2022 Super Rugby Pacific season, the second-most by any team(Chiefs 6) and three more than MoanaPasifika(2).

The Highlanders have made 114 carries per game in the 2022 Super Rugby Pacific season, the second-most of any team (Chiefs–128) and 24 per game more than Moana Pasifika(90).

Prediction

@rugby365com: Highlanders by five points.

Teams: 

Highlanders: 15 Connor Garden-Bachop, 14 Sam Gilbert, 13 Fetuli Paea, 12 Scott Gregory, 11 Mosese Dawai, 10 Mitch Hunt, 9 Aaron Smith (captain), 8 Marino Mikaele-Tu’u, 7 James Lentjes, 6 Shannon Frizell, 5 Josh Dickson, 4 Manaaki Selby-Rickit, 3 Jermaine Ainsley, 2 Andrew Makalio,1 Ethan De Groot,
Replacements: 16 Rhys Marshall, 17 Ayden Johnstone, 18 Saula Mau, 19 Max Hicks, 20 Gareth Evans, 21 Folau Fakatava, 22 Vilimoni Koroi, 23 Denny Solomona

Moana Pasifika: 15 William Havili, 14 Tima Fainga’anuku, 13 Levi Aumua, 12 Danny Toala, 11 Timoci Tavatavanawai, 10 Christian Leali’ifano, 9 Ereatara Enari, 8 Penitoa Finau, 7 Alamanda Motuga, 6 Solomone Funaki, 5 Samuel Slade, 4 Veikoso Poloniati, 3 Sekope Kepu (captain), 2 Luteru Tolai, 1 Ezekiel Lindenmuth
Replacements: 16 Samiuela Moli, 17 Abraham Pole, 18 Chris Apoua, 19 Mahonri Ngakuru, 20 Sione Tu’ipulotu, 21 Jonathan Taumateine, 22 Lincoln McClutchie, 23 Fine Inisi

Referee: Mike Fraser
Assistant referees: Ben O’Keeffe & Jono Bredin
TMO: Aaron Paterson

Western Force v Melbourne Rebels
(HBF Park, Perth – Kick-off: 17.45; 09.45 GMT)

The Western Force have won their last two Super Rugby games against the Melbourne Rebels after having never previously won back-to-back games against them; however, they were defeated in their last game as hosts against the Rebels (10-7 – Rd 4, 2021 Super Rugby AU).

Seven of the eight previous Super Rugby games between the Western Force and Melbourne Rebels in Western Australia were decided by single-digit margins on the day with the Rebels picking up six wins in that span (L2).

The Western Force have won only one of their last six Super Rugby matches against fellow Australian teams (L5), a 28-3 victory against the Melbourne Rebels (Round 2 – 2022 Super Rugby Pacific).

The Melbourne Rebels defeated the Fijian Drua 42-27 in their most recent Super Rugby match (Round 6 – 2022 Super Rugby Pacific), snapping a 10-match losing run in the competition; they will be aiming for back-to-back wins for the first time since March 2021.

The Melbourne Rebels have made dominant contact on 28% of their total carries (175/618) in the 2022 Super Rugby Pacific season; no team has a higher rate in this category for the campaign.

The Western Force have a goalkicking accuracy of 90% on place kicks this Super Rugby Pacific campaign (26/29) – the best rate of any team and 17 percentage points more than the Melbourne Rebels (73%).

The Western Force have a scrum success rate of 83% this Super Rugby Pacific season, the lowest of any team in the competition and six percentage points fewer than the Melbourne Rebels (89%).

The Melbourne Rebels have a tackle success rate of 72% in the 2022 Super Rugby Pacific season, the lowest of any team in the competition and six percentage points fewer than the Western Force (78%).

Manasa Mataele (Western Force) has crossed the gainline on 44 carries this Super Rugby Pacific season, the most of any back and the third most by any player overall (Harry Wilson – 66 and Pita Sowakula – 45).

Matt Philip (Melbourne Rebels) has made 12 offloads in the 2022 Super Rugby Pacific season, the joint-most by any player (also Quinn Tupaea – 12) and four more than Western Force’ best Fergus Lee-Warner (8).

Prediction

@rugby365com:  Western Force by three points.

Western Force: 15 Jake Strachan, 14 Byron Ralston, 13 Kyle Godwin (captain), 12 Bayley Kuenzle, 11 Manasa Mataele, 10 Reesjan Pasitoa, 9 Ian Prior, 8 Brynard Stander, 7 Kane Koteka, 6 Tim Anstee, 5 Fergus Lee-Warner, 4 Jeremy Thrush, 3 Santiago Medrano, 2 Andrew Ready, 1 Harrison Lloyd
Replacements: 16 Feleti Kaitu’u, 17 Bo Abra, 18 Greg Holmes, 19 Izack Rodda, 20 Ollie Callan, 21 Issak Fines-Leleiwasa, 22 Jake McIntyre, 23 Brad Lacey

Melbourne Rebels: 15 Reece Hodge, 14 Andrew Kellaway, 13 Stacey Ili, 12 Raymond Nu’u, 11 Glen Vaihu, 10 Matt To’omua, 9 James Tuttle, 8 Michael Wells (captain), 7 Richard Hardwick, 6 Brad Wilkin, 5 Josh Canham, 4 Matt Philip, 3 Cabous Eloff, 2 Jordan Uelese, 1 Matt Gibbon
Replacements: 16 James Hanson, 17 Cameron Orr, 18 Rhys van Nek, 19 Josh Hill, 20 Sam Wallis, 21 Joe Powell, 22 Carter Gordon, 23 George Worth

Referee: Damon Murphy
Assistant referees: Graham Cooper & Jordan Kaminski
TMO: Kyle Burnett

Saturday, April 9

Hurricanes v Crusaders
(Sky Stadium, Wellington – Kick-off: 16.35; 04.35 GMT)

The Crusaders have won nine of their last 10 Super Rugby games against the Hurricanes (L1) including their last three on the bounce and haven’t lost away to the Hurricanes since Round 4, 2018 (29-19).

The Crusaders have won their last three away games against the Hurricanes in Super Rugby after having lost five on the bounce prior to that period; their last such clash ended in a 30-27 win to the Crusaders in Round 7, 2021 Super Rugby Aotearoa.

The Crusaders have won 12 of their last 13 Super Rugby games (L1), including their last two on the bounce; they have won their last six consecutive games when playing away from home on the day.

The Hurricanes have lost each of their last two Super Rugby matches, as many as they lost in their nine games prior (W7, L2); the last time they went on a longer losing run was a three-match span in April 2021.

The Crusaders have won each of their last two Super Rugby away matches against fellow New Zealand teams by the exact same score line (34-19); the Crusaders have never previously scored the same amount of points in more than two consecutive such fixtures.

The Crusaders have retained possession on 24 kicks in play this Super Rugby Pacific season, the joint-most of any team (also Brumbies – 24); the Hurricanes (9) have logged the fewest of any team so far.

The Crusaders have scored five tries from mauls in the 2022 Super Rugby Pacific season, the joint-most by any team (also NSW Waratahs – 5); the Hurricanes (0) are one of two teams yet to score a try via this method (Fijian Drua).

The Hurricanes have made dominant contact on 31 carries per game in the 2022 Super Rugby Pacific season, the most of any team in the competition and seven per game more than the Crusaders (24).

Ardie Savea (Hurricanes) has made 15 tackle breaks this Super Rugby Pacific season, more than any other forward and more than double Crusaders’ best forward Cullen Grace (6).

Tom Christie (Crusaders) has made 110 tackles in the 2022 Super Rugby Pacific season, 25 more than any other player and more than double the Hurricanes’ best James Blackwell (48).

Prediction

@rugby365com: Crusaders by seven points.

Hurricanes: 15 Josh Moorby, 14 Julian Savea, 13 Billy Proctor, 12 Jordie Barrett, 11 Wes Goosen, 10 Jackson Garden-Bachop, 9 TJ Perenara, 8 Ardie Savea (captain), 7 Du’Plessis Kirifi, 6 Te Kamaka Howden, 5 Scott Scrafton, 4 James Blackwell, 3 Tyrel Lomax, 2 Asafo Aumua, 1 Pouri Rakete-Stones
Replacements: 16 James O’Reilly, 17 Alex Fidow, 18 Tevita Mafileo, 19 Caleb Delany, 20 Devan Flanders, 21 Jamie Booth, 22 Bailyn Sullivan, 23 Ruben Love

Crusaders: 15 Will Jordan, 14 Sevu Reece, 13 Braydon Ennor, 12 David Havili, 11 George Bridge, 10 Richie Mo’unga, 9 Mitchell Drummond, 8 Cullen Grace, 7 Ethan Blackadder, 6 Pablo Matera, 5 Quinten Strange, 4 Scott Barrett (captain), 3 Fletcher Newell, 2 Codie Taylor, 1 Joe Moody
Replacements: 16 Ricky Jackson, 17 George Bower, 18 Tamaiti Williams, 19 Zach Gallagher, 20 Tom Christie, 21 Bryn Hall, 22 Fergus Burke, 23 Leicester Fainga’anuku

Referee: James Doleman
Assistant referees: Brendon Pickerill& Dan Waenga
TMO: Chris Hart

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Chiefs v Blues
(FMG Stadium Waikato, Hamilton – Kick-off: 19.05; 07.05 GMT)

The Blues have won four of their last five Super Rugby games against the Chiefs (L1), including their last two on the bounce; the last time they won more in succession against them was a four-game stretch from 1996 to 1999 – their first four clashes in the competition.

The Chiefs have won nine of their last 10 Super Rugby games at home against the Blues (L1), including a 15-12 win when they last hosted them (Rd 5, 2021 Super Rugby Aotearoa).

The Chiefs were defeated 34-19 by the Crusaders in their last game at home in Super Rugby (March 26, 2022), snapping a six-game winning streak as hosts in the competition.

The Blues have won 12 of their last 13 Super Rugby games (L1) including their last five on the bounce and haven’t lost away from home since a 6-29 loss to the Crusaders in Round 9 of the 2021 Super Rugby Aotearoa campaign.

The Blues have crossed the gainline on 65% of their total carries (384/589) in the 2022 Super Rugby Pacific season, the highest rate of any team and four percentage points more than any other side in the campaign.

The Blues have gained 120 metres from mauls in the 2022 Super Rugby Pacific season, the most of any team in the competition and 89m more than the Chiefs (31m).

Only the Fijian Drua (10) have made more offloads resulting in a break than the Chiefs (7) and Blues (7) in the 2022 Super Rugby Pacific competition.

The Chiefs have scored four tries starting possession from kick returns in the 2022 Super Rugby Pacific season, more than any other team in the competition; the Blues (3) have scored the joint-second most of any side via this method.
Pita Sowakula (Chiefs) has made 71 carries in the 2022 Super Rugby Pacific season, the second-most by any forward (Harry Wilson – 103) and the third most by any player overall (Kalaveti Ravouvou – 72).

Blues’ duo Stephen Perofeta and Finlay Christie have each provided four try assists in the 2022 Super Rugby Pacific season; only the Queensland Reds’ James O’Connor (5) has made more in the campaign.

Prediction

@rugby365com: Blues by five points.

Chiefs: 15 Kaleb Trask, 14 Emoni Narawa, 13 Anton Lienert-Brown, 12 Alex Nankivell, 11 Etene Nanai-Seturo, 10 Bryn Gatland, 9 Brad Weber, 8 Pita Gus Sowakula, 7 Sam Cane, 6 Kaylum Boshier, 5 Naitoa Ah Kuoi, 4 Josh Lord, 3 Angus Ta’avao, 2 Samisoni Taukei’aho, 1 Aidan Ross
Replacements: 16 Bradley Slater, 17 Ollie Norris, 18 George Dyer, 19 Samipeni Finau, 20 Luke Jacobson, 21 Cortez Ratima, 22 Quinn Tupaea, 23 Chase Tiatia

Blues: 15 Stephen Perofeta, 14 Jacob Ratumaitavuki-Kneepkens, 13 Rieko Ioane, 12 Bryce Heem, 11 Mark Telea, 10 Beauden Barrett, 9 Finlay Christie, 8 Hoskins Sotutu, 7 Dalton Papalii (captain), 6 Tom Robinson, 5 Josh Goodhue, 4 Luke Romano, 3 Ofa Tuungafasi, 2 Kurt Eklund, 1 Alex Hodgman
Replacements: 16 Ricky Riccitelli, 17 Jordan Lay, 18 Marcel Renata, 19 James Tucker, 20 Adrian Choat, 21 Sam Nock, 22 Tanielu Tele’a, 23 AJ Lam

Referee: Paul Williams
Assistant referees: Angus Mabey & Mike Winter
TMO: Richard Kelly

Fijian Drua v Brumbies
(Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane – Kick-off: 19.45; 09.45 GMT)

The Brumbies piled on a 42-3 win over the Fijian Drua in their only previous meeting in Super Rugby (Round 2 – 2022 Super Rugby Pacific), the biggest win any team has levelled against the Fijian side this campaign.

Three of the Fijian Drua’s last five Super Rugby games have been decided by a margin of no greater than five points on the day, including their solitary win in the competition over the Melbourne Rebels in Round 3 of this Super Rugby Pacific season (31-26).

The Brumbies will be looking to avoid back-to-back defeats in Super Rugby for the first time since May 2021, following their 21-7 loss to the Queensland Reds last time out (Round 7 – 2022 Super Rugby Pacific).

The Brumbies have won two of their last three Super Rugby matches against teams from outside Australia (L1), as many as they won in their seven such fixtures prior (W2, L5).

The Brumbies have scored 18 tries starting possession from a lineout this Super Rugby Pacific season, the most of any team in the competition; the Fijian Drua (2) have scored the fewest of any side via this method.

The Brumbies have crossed the gainline on 48 carries per game in the 2022 Super Rugby Pacific season, the fewest of any team and 12 per game fewer than the Fijian Drua (60).

The Fijian Drua have gained 464 metres per game in the 2022 Super Rugby Pacific season, the second-most of any team in the competition (Chiefs – 483) and 110 per game more than the Brumbies (354).

The Fijian Drua have made 26 tackle breaks per game in the 2022 Super Rugby Pacific season, the most of any team in the competition and eight per game more than the Brumbies (18).

Kalaveti Ravouvou (Fijian Drua) has made dominant contact on 21 carries this Super Rugby Pacific season, the most of any back and two more than the next best (Quinn Tupaea – 19).

Tom Banks (Brumbies) has made five break passes this Super Rugby Pacific season, the joint-second most by any player (also Josh Ioane – 5) and three more than any Fijian Drua player.

Prediction

@rugby365com: Brumbies by seven points.

Fijian Drua: 15 Kitione Ratu, 14 Selestino Ravutaumada, 13 Apisalome Vota, 12 Tuidraki Samusamuvodre, 11 Vinaya Habosi, 10 Teti Tela, 9 Frank Lomani, 8 Meli Derenalagi (captain), 7 Vilive Miramira, 6 Joseva Tamani, 5 Chris Minimbi, 4 Viliame Rarasea, 3 Samuela Tawake, 2 Mesulame Dolokoto, 1 Haereiti Hetet
Replaceemnts: 16 Tevita Ikanivere, 17 Timoci Sauvoli, 18 Jone Tiko, 19 Isoa Nasilasila, 20 Raikabula Momoedonu, 21 Rusiate Nasove, 22 Simione Kuruvoli, 23 Napolioni Bolaca

Brumbies: 15 Tom Wright, 14 Cam Clark, 13 Len Ikitau, 12 Irae Simone, 11 Andy Muirhead, 10 Rod Iona, 9 Nic White (captain), 8 Rob Valetini, 7 Luke Reimer, 6 Ed Kennedy,5 Tom Hooper, 4 Darcy Swain, 3 Sefo Kautai, 2 Billy Pollard, 1 James Slipper
Replacements: 16 Connal McInerney, 17 Scott Sio, 18 Tom Ross, 19 Nick Frost, 20 Rory Scott, 21 Ryan Lonergan, 22 Hudson Creighton, 23 Ollie Sapsford

Referee: Nic Berry
Assistant referees: Angus Gardner & Matt Kellahan
TMO: Oli Kwellett