Super Rugby Pacific, Semifinals - Teams and Predictions
PREVIEW: Chiefs must defy history if they are to beat the Crusaders in Christchurch in the opening Super Rugby semi-final on Friday.
The Crusaders are the most successful team ever in the southern hemisphere club competition and have been invincible playing sudden-death matches on home turf.
In 27 years of Super Rugby, the 12-times champions have played 26 knockout games at home and never been defeated.
The second semi-final, on Saturday, features the Blues and Brumbies, two sides looking to revive their glory days when they dominated the championship in its formative years.
The Chiefs have also had past Super Rugby success, winning the competition in 2012 and 2013, and showed ominous signs of a revival when they edged the Crusaders 24-21 in Christchurch this year.
But that was during the regular season and Crusaders coach Scott Robertson said that scoreline has loomed large in talk this week.
“It’s a firm reminder that a team like that on their day can test anyone,” said Robertson, who will be marking his 100th game in charge of the Crusaders.
“Any Kiwi team can effectively have their moments that can change games. We’ve reminded each other from the last game.”
The two teams feature 21 All Blacks between them, including Crusaders locks Sam Whitelock and Scott Barrett against the Waikato pair Brodie Retallick and Tupou Vaa’i.
Barrett said there will be no love lost between the Test teammates.
“It’s two [sets of] All Blacks against each other, so it’s a huge battle,” he said.
“We’re both competitive teams. Often in the heat of the moment, a few words might be added, hopefully with a smile.”
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Australia’s only hope
The Brumbies, seeking their first Super Rugby title since 2004, head to Auckland hoping to erase the memory of their heartbreaking loss to the Blues in the regular season when Beauden Barrett snatched victory with a drop goal after the final hooter.
“We took a lot of lessons from that. Obviously we’ve got to be more disciplined,” Brumbies flyhalf Noah Lolesio said.
“We’re definitely full of confidence but we know we’ve got a hard task.”
The Blues, with a star-studded side headlined by a backline combination of Barrett, Roger Tuivasa-Sheck and Rieko Ioane, are favoured by bookmakers to go all the way.
They have lost only once this season and are currently on a club-record 13-match winning streak, but coach Leon Macdonald was shutting out what he called “outside noise”.
“It’s really important we stick with what’s worked for us, and that’s been a day-by-day focus,” he said.
“It’s going to be survival of the fittest. Three brutal playoff games is going to take its toll on every team, there are going to be injuries and guys will need to be ready to go.”
A win for the Blues will see next week’s final played in Auckland.
Should the Brumbies be victorious then the final will be hosted by the winner of the Crusaders-Chiefs match.
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Friday, June 10
Crusaders v Chiefs
(Orangetheory Stadium, Christchurch – Kick-off: 19:05; 07.05 GMT)
The Crusaders have won 10 of their last 14 Super Rugby games against the Chiefs; although, the spoils are split at two wins apiece from their four meetings in the finals with the Chiefs winning the first two clashes (2012, 2013) and the Crusaders winning the most recent two (2017, 2021).
The Chiefs picked up a 24-21 win when they last visited the Crusaders in Super Rugby (March 12 2022), their first win in Christchurch since 2016; in fact, the win snapped a six-game losing streak in such fixtures for the Chiefs.
The Crusaders have won eight of their last 10 Super Rugby home games including their last three on the bounce in Super Rugby Pacific; they’ve won all 26 of their previous home games in Super Rugby finals.
The Chiefs have won seven of their last eight Super Rugby Pacific games including their last four games on the bounce; the last time they won more in succession was a five-game stretch from March to April in the 2021 Super Rugby Aotearoa campaign.
The Chiefs have won only two of their 11 previous Super Rugby finals games as the away team on the day, with both of those wins coming against the Stormers (2016, 2017).
The Crusaders (11.5) and Chiefs (11.3) have made the most attacking 22m entries per game of any teams in the 2022 Super Rugby Pacific season, while only the Blues (3.1) have scored more points per attacking 22m entry than the Crusaders (2.8) this campaign.
The Chiefs (9) and Crusaders (9.7) have conceded the fewest and third-fewest penalties per game of any teams in the 2022 Super Rugby Pacific competition; in fact, no team has received fewer yellow cards this campaign than the Chiefs (3).
The Chiefs’ Bryn Gatland (11) and Crusaders’ Bryn Hall (10) have made more try assists in the 2022 Super Rugby Pacific season than any other players in the competition.
Alex Nankivell (Chiefs) scored two tries and made one try assist when he faced the Crusaders in Round 6 of the 2022 Super Rugby Pacific season and has been directly involved in three tries in his last four games overall in the competition (2 tries, 1 try assist).
Will Jordan (Crusaders) has scored 18 tries in his last 19 Super Rugby games including six tries in his last four games; furthermore, he has scored seven tries in his last seven games against the Chiefs in Super Rugby, crossing at least once in six of those seven games.
Prediction
@rugby365com: Crusaders by 10 points.
Teams:
Crusaders: 15 Will Jordan, 14 Sevu Reece, 13 Jack Goodhue, 12 David Havili, 11 Leicester Fainga’anuku, 10 Richie Mo’unga, 9 Bryn Hall, 8 Cullen Grace, 7 Tom Christie, 6 Pablo Matera, 5 Sam Whitelock, 4 Scott Barrett (captain), 3 Oli Jager, 2 Codie Taylor, 1 George Bower
Replacements: 16 Brodie McAlister, 17 Tamaiti Williams, 18 Fletcher Newell, 19 Zach Gallagher, 20 Corey Kellow, 21 Mitch Drummond, 22 Braydon Ennor, 23 George Bridge
Chiefs: 15 Josh Ioane, 14 Jonah Lowe, 13 Alex Nankivell, 12 Quinn Tupaea, 11 Etene Nanai-Seturo, 10 Bryn Gatland, 9 Brad Weber (captain), 8 Pita Gus Sowakula, 7 Luke Jacobson, 6 Samipeni Finau, 5 Tupou Vaa’i, 4 Brodie Retallick, 3 Angus Ta’avao, 2 Samisoni Taukei’aho, 1 Aidan Ross
Replacements: 16 Bradley Slater, 17 Ollie Norris, 18 George Dyer, 19 Naitoa Ah Kuoi, 20 Sam Cane, 21 Xaiver Roe, 22 Rameka Poihipi, 23 Chase Tiatia
Referee: Nic Berry
Assistant referees: Brendon Pickerill & Jordan Way
TMO: Chris Hart
Saturday, June 11
Blues v Brumbies
(Eden Park, Auckland – Kick-off: 19.05; 17.05 AEST; 07.05 GMT)
The Blues have won five of their last six Super Rugby games against the Brumbies, including their last two on the bounce; they have also won both of their two previous post-season encounters with the Brumbies (1997 Final, 2003 Semi Final).
The Blues have won eight of their last 10 Super Rugby games at home against the Brumbies, including their last three on the bounce and wins by 25 points or more in each of their last two.
The Blues have lost just a single game in Super Rugby since the beginning of the 2021 Super Rugby Trans-Tasman season (W20), a one-point loss to the Hurricanes in Round 2 of Super Rugby Pacific (33-32) and have won their last 14 consecutive games overall.
The Blues have won their last 11 consecutive Super Rugby games against Australian opponents and have won three of their four post-season games against Australian teams; this will be the first time they’ve faced a club from Australia in the finals since 2011 when they faced the NSW Waratahs (Play-Off) and Queensland Reds (Semi Final).
The Brumbies won their last away game against a New Zealand team in Super Rugby competitions (38-28 v Chiefs – May 7 2022); they will be aiming for back-to-back wins in such fixtures for the first time since May 2013.
The Blues (3.1) and Brumbies (2.8) have scored the most and third-most points per attacking 22m entry respectively of any teams in the 2022 Super Rugby Pacific campaign, with the Blues (147) having made just four fewer entries than the Brumbies (151) this season.
The Brumbies have scored nine tries from mauls in the 2022 Super Rugby Pacific season, the most by any team in the competition and five more than the Blues (4) via this method.
Pete Samu (Brumbies) has made seven line breaks in the 2022 Super Rugby Pacific season, the second-most of any forward in the competition behind only the Queensland Reds’ Fraser McReight (9).
Beauden Barrett (Blues) has scored four tries and made four try assists across his last three Super Rugby Pacific games; the last time he scored a try in more consecutive games was a four-game stretch from Rounds 5 to 9 in the 2016 season.
Folau Fainga’a (Brumbies) has scored one try in each of his last four Super Rugby Pacific appearances and has scored four tries across his two career starts against the Blues in Super Rugby competitions.
Prediction
@rugby365com: Blues by seven points.
Teams:
Blues: 15 Stephen Perofeta, 14 AJ Lam, 13 Rieko Ioane, 12 Roger Tuivasa-Sheck, 11 Mark Telea, 10 Beauden Barrett (captain), 9 Finlay Christie, 8 Hoskins Sotutu, 7 Adrian Choat, 6 Akira Ioane, 5 Tom Robinson, 4 Josh Goodhue, 3 Nepo Laulala, 2 Kurt Eklund, 1 Alex Hodgman
Replacements: 16 Soane Vikena, 17 Karl Tu’inukuafe, 18 Ofa Tuungafasi, 19 Luke Romano, 20 James Tucker, 21 Sam Nock, 22 Tamati Tua, 23 Zarn Sullivan
Brumbies: 15 Tom Banks, 14 Tom Wright, 13 Ollie Sapsfor, 12 Irae Simone, 11 Andy Muirhead, 10 Noah Lolesio, 9 Nic White, 8 Rob Valentini, 7 Pete Samu, 6 Tom Hooper, 5 Caderyn Neville, 4 Darcy Swain, 3 Allan Alaalatoa (captain), 2 Folau Fainga’a, 1 James Slipper.
Replacements: 16 Lachlan Lonergan, 17 Scott Sio, 18 Sefo Kautai, 19 Nick Frost, 20 Luke Reimer, 21 Jahrome Brown, 22 Ryan Lonergan, 23 Hudson Creighton.
Referee: Ben O’Keeffe
Assistant referees: Angus Gardner & Stu Curran
TMO: Shane McDermott
Source: AAP & @SuperRugby
*Statistical information provided by Opta Data
