URC: Road to the play-offs
ROUND 17: This weekend brings the penultimate round of action in the United Rugby Championship, but there remains plenty to be decided before the regular season draws to a close.
Who will clinch the top spot?
Who will make the last eight?
And who will have home advantage?
Below, we take a look at what can be decided in Round 17!
TOP SPOT: LEINSTER LEAD THE WAY
The race to end the regular season at the top of the overall table is firmly in Leinster’s hands.
Leo Cullen’s men sit nine points clear of the Stormers and could cement the top seeding for the play-offs this weekend, having missed an opportunity to do so when they lost to the Sharks last week.
Leinster visit the Stormers on Saturday and will be assured of top spot if they emerge from the weekend with a margin greater than five points over whichever team sits second.
A win would guarantee that, but a draw or two bonus points in defeat would also be enough, while one point would be sufficient should the Stormers win but fail to collect a bonus point themselves.
Munster, the Sharks and Ulster are a point back from the Stormers and still mathematically in with a chance of topping the table heading into the final two fixtures, although they would each need a pair of bonus-point wins and for Leinster to register no more points to be in with a shot.
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TOP FOUR: TOO TIGHT TO CALL
Leinster may have a healthy-looking cushion at the top but they are not yet guaranteed a home fixture in the last eight.
The failure by any of Munster, the Sharks or Ulster to collect a bonus-point win this weekend would, however, secure home advantage for the leaders. Should all three achieve that feat, a point would still be enough to see Leinster secure a top-four finish.
None of that trio can make a home quarter-final safe this weekend as they are all guaranteed to remain within reach of each other heading into Round 18.
The Stormers could make sure of home advantage, but it would require several other results to go their way.
John Dobson’s men would have to claim a bonus-point win over Leinster and hope Edinburgh and the Bulls are the only other teams in the top eight to pick up a victory.
Even then, a losing bonus point for any of Munster, the Sharks or Ulster – or two for Glasgow – would force them to wait until Round 18 to finish the job.
Only four points separate the Stormers in second from the Bulls in eighth.
TOP EIGHT: PLACES UP FOR GRABS
At present, Leinster is the only team assured of their place in the play-offs.
From the Stormers down, every team can mathematically be caught by the ninth-placed Scarlets while the Ospreys, who could yield a maximum of 15 points from their remaining fixtures – enough to pull level with seventh-placed Edinburgh as things stand – are now the only other side outside the top eight who could yet break into it.
Wins for any of the Stormers, Munster, the Sharks, Ulster or Glasgow – or a bonus-point win in Edinburgh’s case – would see those sides through to the last eight this weekend, regardless of what happens in the Scarlets’ blockbuster west Wales derby in Swansea on Saturday.
The Bulls will be into the knockouts if they manage to increase their five-point advantage over the Scarlets while also being more than 10 clear of the Ospreys, over whom they currently hold a 14-point cushion.
The Ospreys will be out of the running if they fail to beat the Scarlets, who need to be within five points of the play-off positions by the end of the weekend to stay in the running.
THE SHIELDS
TOP SPOT TAKES ON ADDED IMPORTANCE IN WALES
The Welsh Shield has perhaps become the most intriguing battle, with the possibility that none of the regions reach the play-offs making topping the Shield – and claiming the Heineken Champions Cup qualification spot that comes with it – all the more important.
Victory for the Scarlets in Swansea would see them clinch top spot on Saturday, with Dwayne Peel’s side going into the match with a nine-point advantage over their hosts.
Leinster has a 10-point cushion over Munster and Ulster in the Irish Shield and would get their noses over the line with a single point this weekend.
Munster and Ulster would need bonus-point wins to keep their hopes alive if Leinster failed to pick up that point.
Glasgow can seal the Scottish/Italian Shield with a bonus-point win over the Bulls, as long as Edinburgh fail to pick up a single point from their match against Ulster. Warriors currently lead the capital club by a point.
In the South African Shield, just four points separate the top three.
The Stormers, who lead the second-placed Sharks by a point, will secure the top spot if they emerge from the weekend with a margin greater than five over the chasing pack.
Source: @URCOfficial
