URC Round 16 - teams and prediction

FRIDAY PREVIEW: The Stormers have a chance to cement their place in the play-offs – and even move into a top-four spot – when they host Glasgow Warriors in the opening match of Round 16.

With two Irish provinces – Ulster and Munster – also meeting on Friday, there could be some big changes on the United Rugby Championship table.

Another team with play-off ambitions and in a good position is Edinburgh, who hosts hapless Zebre.

Winning with bonus points has become significantly more important since the URC announcement that the Final will be hosted at the home venue of the highest-ranked team.

It means everybody is chasing the table-topping Leinster team, who is on 60 points – with just three rounds remaining.

It is in Cape Town where the drama starts.

The Stormers are looking for their sixth consecutive win and a seventh consecutive home win.

Their only home defeat this season came when the Lions visited Cape Town on December 4.

Stormers coach John Dobson made no secret of the importance they have placed on getting a win to start their run-in to the play-offs.

Dobson said it should be a “good game”, given the two teams’ positions on the standings – Glasgow third in 50 points from 15 outings and the Stormers fifth (47 from 15).

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“We are growing as a team and we are excited,” the coach said about the team’s growth this season, adding: “We have done a lot of hard work to get in this reasonable position and we don’t want to mess it up now.

“We are actually doing well, athletically and physically, but we have got two really tough games coming up,” Dobson said about a run-in that will see them host Glasgow (on Friday) and Leinster (next Saturday), before travelling to Llanelli to face the Scarlets on May 21.

“Both Glasgow and Leinster are above us on the log.

“Glasgow has been prepping for us and that is going to be a tough game.”

He described the Scottish visitors as a “system-based” team that do “move the ball”, with a really good maul.

“[Glasgow captain] Ali Price is really good with his box kicks at international level,” Dobson said, adding that South African teams will no longer have the conditions (high temperatures) to use to their advantage.

“We will have to bring the intensity ourselves, with how we play.

“We are excited about the opportunity to do that.”

Fresh from their Challenge Cup last-16 win over Newcastle Falcons at Kingston Park last Friday, the Warriors are looking to transfer their European form into the URC.

Glasgow Warriors have lost only two of their previous 10 fixtures against South African opposition – against the Southern Kings in September 2018 and the Cheetahs a year later.

“After a strong showing against Newcastle last weekend, we’re looking forward to another challenging test against the Stormers,” coach Danny Wilson said.

“With four players returning to the squad, we know we’ll need to be at our best against a strong Stormers team.

“The Stormers named a very strong team with an abundance of pace and a strong forward pack.

“Despite having a limited training week due to travel, the boys are fresh and looking forward to taking them on in Cape Town.”

The Stormers’ only previous encounter with Scottish opposition was a 20-all draw at Edinburgh in October.

Stormers skipper Steven Kitshoff said the team was in a ‘really good space’ and ready for the challenge that the Scottish visitors bring.

“We know we are coming to the Sharp end of the competition,” the Stormers captain said.

He stated the obvious by describing the last three rounds as “crucial”.

“For us, it is to get the wins and the momentum,” Kitshoff said, adding: “Hopefully we get a play-off game at home – which will be great.

“However, just qualifying for the play-offs is the priority.”

* After that the focus shifts to the Ravenhill Stadium, where Ulster hosts Munster in an all-Irish clash.

Second-placed Ulster trail leaders Leinster by 10 points heading into the weekend but could put daylight between themselves and Munster – currently three points further back – with a victory over Johann van Graan’s side in Belfast.

Defeat for Munster, who made seven changes to the side that overcame Exeter Chiefs last weekend, would put them at risk of losing their place in the top four and potentially slipping as low as eighth, with their four closest challengers all within striking distance and playing at home this weekend.

Ulster coach Dan McFarland said his team is “a bit grumpy”, after being knocked out of the Champions Cup by Toulouse.

“We have one competition to focus on now and there’s nothing like Munster coming to town on Friday to refocus the mind,” McFarland said.

Munster, with just one win in their last four URC matches, has lost on their previous four visits to Belfast since prevailing in 2016.

“We haven’t won there for a long time and they haven’t won at Thomond Park for a long time,” Munster coach Johann van Graan said.

“So this is a very tough assignment against a very good side.

“We are under no illusions about what we need to go and do in Belfast on Friday and it’s a team that’s been playing very good rugby over the past couple of months.”

* The last of the Friday outings pits Edinburgh against Zebre, as the home team looks to strengthen their grip on a place in the play-offs.

Edinburgh, who have won just two of their last seven matches in the URC, will be encouraged by their head-to-head record with Zebre, having triumphed in 11 of their 16 meetings.

The capital club also have an impressive record at home, winning eight and drawing one of their nine games played there in all competitions.

“The games are coming thick and fast as we move into the business end of the season,” Edinburgh coach Mike Blair said.

“We face another huge test against Zebre.

“The guys are playing with confidence but we know we’ll have to be switched on from the first whistle to get a result against a Zebre side that pushed us really hard in Parma.

“The crowd will once again have a big part to play in driving us forward.”

* All the Friday teams and predictions are below …

Friday, April 22

Stormers v Glasgow Warriors
(Cape Town Stadium, Cape Town – Kick-off: 18.30; 17.30 Ireland & UK; 16.30 GMT)

Play-off qualification likelihood

Stormers: 91 percent
Glasgow Warriors: >99 percent

Prediction

@rugby365com: Stormers by 11 points

Teams

Stormers: 15 Damian Willemse, 14 Seabelo Senatla, 13 Ruhan Nel, 12 Rikus Pretorius, 11 Leolin Zas, 10 Manie Libbok, 9 Herschel Jantjies, 8 Evan Roos, 7 Hacjivah Dayimani, 6 Junior Pokomela, 5 Marvin Orie, 4 Adre Smith, 3 Frans Malherbe, 2 Scarra Ntubeni, 1 Steven Kitshoff (captain).
Replacements: 16 JJ Kotze, 17 Ali Vermaak, 18 Brok Harris, 19 Salmaan Moerat, 20 Ben-Jason Dixon, 21 Nama Xaba, 22 Paul de Wet, 23 Warrick Gelant.

Glasgow Warriors: 15 Ollie Smith, 14 Josh McKay, 13 Sione Tuipulotu, 12 Sam Johnson, 11 Kyle Steyn, 10 Ross Thompson, 9 Ali Price (captain), 8 Jack Dempsey, 7 Rory Darge, 6 Ally Miller, 5 Kiran McDonald, 4 Richie Gray, 3 Zander Fagerson, 2 Johnny Matthews, 1 Oliver Kebble.
Replacements: 16 George Turner, 17 Jamie Bhatti, 18 Simon Berghan, 19 Rob Harley, 20 Thomas Gordon, 21 Jamie Dobie, 22 Duncan Weir, 23 Cole Forbes.

Referee: Andy Brace (Ireland)
Assistant referees: AJ Jacobs (South Africa), Griffin Colby (South Africa)
TMO: Marius van der Westhuizen (South Africa)

Ulster v Munster
(Ravenhill Stadium, Belfast – Kick-off: 19.35; 18.35 GMT)

Play-off qualification likelihood

Ulster: >99 percent
Munster: 99 percent

Prediction

@rugby365com: Ulster by five points

Teams

Ulster: 15 Stewart Moore, 14 Rob Baloucoune, 13 James Hume, 12 Stuart McCloskey, 11 Ethan McIlroy, 10 Mike Lowry, 9 John Cooney, 8 Nick Timoney, 7 Jordi Murphy, 6 Matty Rea, 5 Iain Henderson (captain), 4 Alan O’Connor, 3 Marty Moore, 2 Rob Herring, 1 Andrew Warwick.
Replacements: 16 Brad Roberts, 17 Eric O’Sullivan, 18 Gareth Milasinovich, 19 Sam Carter, 20 Sean Reidy, 21 Nathan Doak, 22 Ian Madigan, 23 Ben Moxham.

Munster: 15 Mike Haley, 14 Keith Earls, 13 Chris Farrell, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Shane Daly, 10 Joey Carbery, 9 Craig Casey, 8 Alex Kendellen, 7 John Hodnett, 6 Jack O’Donoghue (captain), 5 Thomas Ahern, 4 Jean Kleyn, 3 Stephen Archer, 2 Diarmuid Barron, 1 Jeremy Loughman.
Replacements: 16 Scott Buckley, 17 Josh Wycherley, 18 John Ryan, 19 Jason Jenkins, 20 Fineen Wycherley, 21 Conor Murray, 22 Ben Healy, 23 Chris Cloete.

Referee: Jaco Peyper (South Africa)
Assistant referees: Andrew Cole (Ireland), Paul Haycock (Ireland)
TMO: Brian MacNeice (Ireland)

Edinburgh v Zebre
(Edinburgh Rugby Stadium, Edinburgh – Kick-off: 19.45; 20.45 Italian time, 18.45 GMT)

Play-off qualification likelihood

Edinburgh: 97 percent
Zebre Parma: zero percent

Prediction

@rugby365com: Edinburgh by 18 points

Teams

Edinburgh: 15 Jaco van der Walt, 14 Ramiro Moyano, 12 Mark Bennett, 12 Cammy Hutchison, 11 Freddie Owsley, 10 Blair Kinghorn, 9 Henry Pyrgos (captain), 8 Mesulame Kunavula, 7 Hamish Watson, 6 Ben Muncaster, 5 Glen Young, 4 Marshall Sykes, 3 Lee-Roy Atalifo, 2 Dave Cherry, 1 Pierre Schoeman.
Replacements: 16 Adam McBurney, 17 Harrison Courtney, 18 Angus Williams, 19 Jamie Hodgson, 20 Connor Boyle, 21 Ben Vellacott, 22 James Lang, 23 Matt Currie.

Zebre: 15 Junior Laloifi, 14 Jacopo Trulla, 13 Erich Cronjé, 12 Enrico Lucchin, 11 Simone Gesi, 10 Antonio Rizzi, 9 Alessandro Fusco, 8 Taina Fox-Matamua, 7 Maxime Mbandà, 6 Liam Mitchell, 5 Andrea Zambonin, 4 Gabriele Venditti, 3 Ion Neculai, 2 Luca Bigi (captain), 1 Danilo Fischetti.
Replacements: 16 Giampietro Ribaldi, 17 Paolo Buonfiglio, 18 Eduardo Bello, 19 David Sisi, 20 Luca Andreani, 21 Chris Cook, 22 Timothy O’Malley, 23 Lorenzo Pani.

Referee: Frank Murphy (Ireland)
Assistant referees: Graeme Ormiston (Scotland), Dunx McClement (Scotland)
TMO: Andrew McMenemy (Scotland)

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* Additional reporting by @URCOfficial