URC, Round 18 - Teams and Predictions
SATURDAY PREVIEW: Champions Cup qualification will be the name of the game for a few teams on Saturday as the United Rugby Championship concludes its league phase.
For South Africa, the big focus will be on the Bulls and the Sharks.
For the Sharks in particular, the focus on Connacht’s final game of the league phase of the season, which also happens to be the last game of the regular season before the play-offs start, will be intense.
Provided they pick up a win over Munster in Durban earlier in the day, they will be hoping that Connacht trip up when the sixth-placed team visits fourth-placed Glasgow Warriors at Scotstoun in Glasgow.
If they don’t, and the Bulls have beaten what should be a significantly weakened Leinster side at Loftus earlier in the day, then the Sharks’ result against Munster would be rendered irrelevant – they will finish eighth, meaning outside of the Championship Cup qualification.
The four Shield winners all earn automatic qualification regardless of where they finish, and the Welsh are well out of top eight consideration.
Conversely, depending on how his team has fared against Leinster, Bulls coach Jake White will be rooting for Glasgow.
That’s because a Connacht defeat will enable the Bulls to finish sixth, which barring an upset result in Belfast, where second-placed Ulster host Edinburgh, will mean a trip to Cape Town for the Bulls’ quarterfinal.
Saturday’s match against the Bulls is just one more hurdle for Leinster to overcome to go through the entire league season unbeaten, but it’s going to be a sizeable one for Leo Cullen’s young team at Loftus Versfeld.
The seventh-placed Bulls will be going all out for the win as they look to qualify for the Champions Cup. They also may need to finish in the top six to do that, should either Benetton or the Scarlets win the Challenge Cup.
So, they will doubtless be looking for a bonus point win as they set their sights on Connacht and Munster above them.
“Once our game is finished we will know what is going to happen,” said Bulls Director of Rugby Jake White.
“We would like to believe that after our game, destiny is already in our hands rather than waiting for someone else.
“I don’t think it’s just about Champions Cup [qualification]. It is about playing as well as you can in this game to make sure that whoever you play in the next round you get a fair chance to get the win.”
Altitude was a big talking point ahead of Leinster’s 39-36 win over the Lions in Johannesburg and White believes it will be even less of a factor this week.
“One thing they are very good at is playing quickly, so I don’t think that they will change their style,” White explained.
“I don’t think the altitude factor will hit them as hard as it did last week, because there is always that scientific debate about either you come one day before or you come 10 days before the game and I think they have been here long enough to actually get used to the altitude.
“Someone told me that Ellis Park is higher than Loftus, so maybe training in Johannesburg has helped them.
“I don’t think they will move away from the things that worked for them. I can’t see them trying to slow it up and changing what has worked for them, not only this year but for the last couple of years.”
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Meanwhile, Munster will still be on a high after their win over the Stormers last weekend and head to Durban looking to avenge their Champions’ Cup defeat a few weeks ago.
Connacht and the Bulls can technically overtake them if they lose and they could drop down the table.
The Sharks, on the other hand, are in a lot more danger with the whole Champions Cup situation. An eighth spot won’t be enough to qualify for Europe as a Welsh shield winner will qualify ahead of them.
The Sharks are also saying farewell to Springbok captain Siya Kolisi and prop Thomas du Toit, both of whom will move abroad at the end of the URC, so there will be a lot of emotion around the side’s performance.
On all those permutations heading into the weekend, Sharks Director of Rugby Neil Powell said: “If we don’t do ourselves a favour and if we are not successful against Munster, then none of those permutations actually matter.
“We got to do the job ourselves first before we look at anybody else.
“That was the discussion this week. It is all about us and doing ourselves a favour, by beating Munster here, because if we lose then nothing else matters.
“It’s difficult not to focus on that [permutations], but we got to make sure we do our job first before we look at other teams to do favours for us.”
Powell believes Munster will be a more formidable unit now than when they met a few weeks ago in the Champions Cup.
“We are expecting a different Munster team. You could see some of their intent in the Stormers game,” said Powell.
“To go to Cap Town and beat a Stormers team is no easy feat and I think they definitely stepped up in the areas where we challenged them and beat them at Kings Park.
“We are expecting a team that is going to be a lot more physical and wants a lot more dominance with their forward pack.
“It’s well documented over the last week or so that they had a good chat after their game against us and they took a lot of lessons from that game.”
Before the Sharks and Bulls’ home matches, the Lions will enter their clash against Zebre Parma at Loftus Versfeld as favourites given the fact that the Italian outfit have lost all their matches this season and come off a heavy 12-78 defeat against the Bulls last week.
The Johannesburgers will also want to make up for their heart-breaking last-minute defeat against log-leaders Leinster last week – which dashed all hopes of them squeezing through to the quarterfinals following a brave comeback in the competition in the last few rounds – and to finish the season on a high note.
Zebre Parma will have to step up their defence to create an upset, as they have the worst defensive record in the competition with 684 points conceded in 17 matches.
“It is all about respecting them,” said Lions backline coach Ricardo Loubscher.
“We are expecting them to come out guns blazing and trying to finish on a high and putting in a strong performance.
“From our point of view, it’s to prepare well and make sure we finish on a high as well come Saturday.”
Saturday’s other final-round games are Welsh derbies with the Dragons hosting Scarlets and Ospreys up against Cardiff.
See below for Saturday’s teams and predictions!
Saturday, April 22:
Lions v Zebre Parma
(Loftus Versfeld Stadium, Pretoria – Kick-off 13.00; 13.00 Italy time; 11.00 GMT)
Prediction
@rugby365com: Lions by 18 points.
Teams:
Lions: 15 Quan Horn, 14 Sibahle Maxwane, 13 Manuel Rass, 12 Marius Louw (captain), 11 Edwill van der Merwe, 10 Gianni Lombard, 9 Sanele Nohamba, 8 Francke Horn, 7 Ruan Venter, 6 Jacobus Kriel, 5 Ruben Schoeman, 4 Willem Alberts, 3 Asenathi Ntlabakanye, 2 Pieter Botha, 1 Rhynardt Rijnsburger.
Replacements: 16 Morné Brandon, 17 Morgan Naude, 18 Ruan Dreyer, 19 Ruan Delport, 20 Emmanuel Tshituka, 21 Morné van den Berg, 22 Rynhardt Jonker, 23 Andries Coetzee.
Zebre Parma: 15 Jacopo Trulla, 14 Kobus van Wyk, 13 Richard Kriel, 12 Enrico Lucchin (captain), 11 Simone Gesi, 10 Tiff Eden, 9 Chris Cook, 8 Giacomo Ferrari, 7 Iacopo Bianchi, 6 Guido Volpi, 5 Andrea Zambonin, 4 Leonard Krumov, 3 Matteo Nocera, 2 Luca Bigi, 1 Paolo Buonfiglio.
Replacements: 16 Marco Manfredi, 17 Juan Pitinari, 18 Muhamed Hasa, 19 David Sisi, 20 Davide Ruggeri, 21 Alessandro Fusco, 22 Geronimo Prisciantelli, 23 Damiano Mazza.
Referee: Ben Whitehouse (Wales)
Assistant referees: Morne Ferreira (South Africa) & Stephan Geldenhuys (South Africa)
TMO: Jon Mason (Wales)
Bulls v Leinster
(Loftus Versfeld Stadium, Pretoria – Kick-off: 16.00; 15.00 Ireland and UK time; 14.00 GMT)
Prediction
@rugby365com: Bulls by four points.
Teams:
Bulls: 15 Kurt-Lee Arendse, 14 Canan Moodie, 13 Stedman Gans, 12 Harold Vorster, 11 David Kriel, 10 Johan Goosen 9 Embrose Papier, 8 Elrigh Louw, 7 Cyle Brink, 6 Marco van Staden, 5 Ruan Nortje (captain), 4 Ruan Vermaak, 3 Mornay Smith, 2 Johan Grobbelaar, 1 Gerhard Steenekamp.
Replacements: 16 Bismarck du Plessis, 17 Dylan Smith, 18 Francois Klopper, 19 Janko Swanepoel, 20 WJ Steenkamp, 21 Keagan Johannes, 22 Chris Smith, 23 Cornal Hendricks.
Leinster: 15 Chris Cosgrave, 14 Tommy O’Brien, 13 Liam Turner, 12 Ben Brownlee, 11 Dave Kearney, 10 Sam Prendergast, 9 Nick McCarthy, 8 Max Deegan, 7 Will Connors, 6 James Culhane, 5 Brian Deeny, 4 Alex Soroka, 3 Thomas Clarkson, 2 Tadgh McElroy, 1 Ed Byrne (captain).
Replacements: 16 Lee Barron, 17 Michael Milne, 18 Temi Lasisi, 19 Conor O’Tighearnaigh, 20 Liam Molony, 21 Ben Murphy, 22 Charlie Tector, 23 Rob Russell.
Referee: Craig Evans (Wales)
Assistant referees: Adriaan Jacobs (South Africa) & Aimee Barrett-Theron (South Africa)
TMO: Jon Mason (Wales)
Dragons v Scarlets
(Millennium Stadium, Cardiff – Kick-off: 15.00; 14.00 GMT)
Prediction
@rugby365com: Scarlets by seven points.
Teams:
Dragons: 15 Jordan Williams, 14 Rio Dyer, 13 Sio Tomkinson, 12 Steff Hughes, 11 Ashton Hewitt, 10 Angus O’Brien, 9 Rhodri Williams (captain), 8 Aaron Wainwright, 7 Taine Basham, 6 George Nott, 5 Matthew Screech, 4 Ben Carter, 3 Lloyd Fairbrother, 2 Elliot Dee, 1 Rhodri Jones.
Replacements: 16 Bradley Roberts, 17 Rob Evans, 18 Chris Coleman, 19 Huw Taylor, 20 Sean Lonsdale, 21 Lewis Jones, 22 Will Reed, 23 Aneurin Owen.
Scarlets: 15 Tom Rogers, 14 Steff Evans, 13 Joe Roberts, 12 Johnny Williams, 11 Ryan Conbeer, 10 Sam Costelow, 9 Kieran Hardy, 8 Carwyn Tuipulotu, 7 Josh Macleod (captain), 6 Iwan Shenton, 5 Morgan Jones, 4 Vaea Fifita, 3 Javan Sebastian, 2 Ken Owens, 1 Kemsley Mathias.
Replacements: 16 Daf Hughes, 17 Wyn Jones, 18 Sam Wainwright, 19 Iestyn Rees, 20 Shaun Evans, 21 Gareth Davies, 22 Dan Jones, 23 Johnny McNicholl.
Referee: Jaco Peyper (South Africa)
Assistant referees: Adam Jones (Wales) & Elgan Williams (Wales)
TMO: Brian MacNeice (Ireland)
Ospreys v Cardiff
(Millennium Stadium, Cardiff – Kick-off: 17.15; 16.15 GMT)
Prediction
@rugby365com: Ospreys by five points.
Teams:
Ospreys: 15 Michael Collins, 14 George North, 13 Keiran Williams, 12 Owen Williams, 11 Luke Morgan, 10 Gareth Anscombe, 9 Rhys Webb, 8 Morgan Morris, 7 Dan Lydiate, 6 Rhys Davies, 5 Alun Wyn Jones, 4 Adam Beard, 3 Tomas Francis, 2 Sam Parry, 1 Nicky Smith (captain).
Replacements: 16 Dewi Lake, 17 Gareth Thomas, 18 Tom Botha, 19 Huw Sutton, 20 Ethan Roots, 21 Reuben Morgan-Williams, 22 Harri Doel, 23 Max Nagy.
Cardiff: 15 Rhys Priestland, 14 Mason Grady, 13 Rey Lee-Lo, 12 Max Llewellyn, 11 Jason Harries, 10 Jarrod Evans, 9 Tomos Williams, 8 Taulupe Faletau, 7 Thomas Young, 6 Josh Turnbull (captain), 5 Seb Davies, 4 James Ratti, 3 Keiron Assiratti, 2 Liam Belcher, 1 Corey Domachowski.
Replacements: 16 Kristian Dacey, 17 Rhys Carré, 18 Dillon Lewis, 19 Teddy Williams, 20 James Botham, 21 Lloyd Williams, 22 Ben Thomas, 23 Harri Millard.
Referee: Frank Murphy (Ireland)
Assistant referees: Gareth Newman (Wales) & Gwyn Morris (Wales)
TMO: Olly Hodges (Ireland)
Sharks v Munster
(Kings Park, Durban – Kick-off: 18.15; 17.15 Ireland & UK time; 16.15 GMT)
Prediction
@rugby365com: Sharks by two points.
Teams:
Sharks: 15 Henry Chamberlain, 14 Werner Kok, 13 Lukhanyo Am, 12 Ben Tapuai, 11 Makazole Mapimpi, 10 Curwin Bosch, 9 Grant Williams, 8 Sikhumbuzo Notshe, 7 Vincent Tshituka, 6 Siyamthanda Kolisi (captain), 5 Gerbrandt Grobler, 4 Jeandre Labuschagne, 3 Thomas du Toit, 2 Mbongeni Mbonambi, 1 Retshegofaditswe Nché.
Replacements: 16 Kerron van Vuuren, 17 Ntuthuko Mchunu, 18 Carlü Sadie, 19 Reniel Hugo, 20 Phendulani Buthelezi, 21 Cameron Wright, 22 Rohan Janse van Rensburg, 23 Aphelele Fassi.
Munster: 15 Mike Haley, 14 Calvin Nash, 13 Antoine Frisch, 12 Malakai Fekitoa, 11 Shane Daly, 10 Jack Crowley, 9 Conor Murray, 8 Gavin Coombes, 7 Alex Kendellen, 6 Peter O’Mahony (captain), 5 Fineen Wycherley, 4 Jean Kleyn, 3 Stephen Archer, 2 Diarmuid Barron, 1 Jeremy Loughman.
Replacements: 16 Scott Buckley, 17 Josh Wycherley, 18 Keynan Knox, 19 Edwin Edogbo, 20 Jack O’Donoghue, 21 Craig Casey, 22 Ben Healy, 23 Keith Earls.
Referee: Mike Adamson (Scotland)
Assistant referees: Cwengile Jadezweni (South Africa) & Griffin Colby (South Africa)
TMO: Hollie Davidson (Scotland)
Glasgow Warriors v Connacht
(Scotstoun Stadium, Glasgow – Kick-off: 19.35; 18.35 GMT)
Prediction
@rugby365com: Glasgow by seven points.
Teams:
Glasgow Warriors: 15 Huw Jones, 14 Cole Forbes, 13 Stafford McDowall (captain), 12 Sam Johnson, 11 Jamie Dobie, 10 Tom Jordan, 9 Ali Price, 8 Jack Dempsey, 7 Sione Vailanu, 6 Rory Darge, 5 Richie Gray, 4 Scott Cummings, 3 Lucio Sordoni, 2 Fraser Brown, 1 Allan Dell.
Replacements: 16 Johnny Matthews, 17 Jamie Bhatti, 18 Zander Fagerson, 19 JP du Preez, 20 Lewis Bean, 21 Matt Fagerson, 22 George Horne, 23 Domingo Miotti.
Connacht: 15 Tiernan O’Halloran, 14 John Porch, 13 Tom Farrell, 12 Cathal Forde, 11 Byron Ralston, 10 Jack Carty (captain), 9 Caolin Blade, 8 Cian Prendergast, 7 Conor Oliver, 6 Josh Murphy, 5 Niall Murray, 4 Oisín Dowling, 3 Finlay Bealham, 2 Dylan Tierney-Martin, 1 Denis Buckley.
Replacements: 16 Eoin de Buitléar, 17 Peter Dooley, 18 Sam Illo, 19 Darragh Murray, 20 Shamus Hurley-Langton, 21 Kieran Marmion, 22 Tom Daly, 23 Shane Jennings.
Referee: Gianluca Gnecchi (Italy)
Assistant referees: David Sutherland (Scotland) & Sam O’Neil (Scotland)
TMO: Stefano Roscini (Italy)
Additional reporting: @URCOfficial
