URC, Semifinals - Teams and Predictions

PREVIEW: Stormers head coach John Dobson says his team is “fired up” to make full use of their home-ground advantage in their United Rugby Championship semifinal on Saturday.

The Stormers are up against Irish side Connacht in Saturday’s first semifinal at Cape Town Stadium.

Saturday’s second semifinal will see Leinster at home in Dublin against fellow Irish outfit Munster.

The Stormers, who will be without Springboks Deon Fourie and Marvin Orie, will enter the clash in the Mother City as favourites with home advantage, form and statistics counting in their favour. Connacht will also be wary of the defending champions’ impressive track record at home, where they have lost only twice in 22 home matches in the last two seasons.

A spot in the final aside, the Capetonians’ motivation to register a victory will be fuelled by the fact that a win will also keep them in the race for a possible home final should Munster create an upset against Leinster, thanks to the tournament rule that the highest-ranked of the two finalists will host the Grand Final.

“We are pretty fired up. We saw Connacht’s win against Ulster [in the quarterfinals] and we learnt a lot from that game,” said Dobson.

“We saw their intensity and we saw their physicality.

“We got a get out of jail card last week with that result, which allowed us to play here [in Cape Town].

“These are very tough economic times where most of our fans are not very affluent. With people coming out in numbers as they have, we have to fight and we have a responsibility [to do well] because we know we might not be here again.

“We might be favourites in a rugby sense and with our track record over the last few years, but we are not treating ourselves like that at all.

“We are just very keen.”

The preview continues below…

The Stormers boast a significantly better-attacking record with 564 points scored this season to Connacht’s 471, but the teams’ defensive statistics are more closely matched, with the Cape side conceding 412 points to 436 by the Irish outfit.

The hosts will also draw inspiration from the fact that they registered a comfortable 38-15 victory against the visitors at the Danie Craven Stadium in Stellenbosch in the pool stages. Interestingly this will mark Connacht’s first visit to the Cape Town Stadium, as the teams’ last two outings were in Stellenbosch and Galway respectively.

However, the surface is not in the best condition at the stadium and there has been rain in the city leading up to Saturday’s fixture as well.

“They [Connacht] play in the most remarkable weather there [in Belfast] but they got a 4G field,” said Dobson.

“With our style of rugby, we would have loved to play at a Loftus or something and especially with our front row.

“That [Cape Town Stadium] field is not really equipped to take rain, so it is going to be a challenge.

“The one thing in our favour is that we are used to it like they are to the conditions in Galway.”

The visitors, who finished the pool stages in seventh place, will enter the clash with the mindset that nothing is impossible after defying the odds to beat the second-placed Ulster away last week.

This victory came after a morale-boosting run of winning six of their last seven league games to qualify for the play-offs, while they will also draw some confidence from the fact that they defeated the Stormers 19-17 in a tight match in Galway last season.

“Last Friday [against Ulster], to anyone outside the squad, we were the clear underdogs, and tomorrow [Saturday] will be no different,” said Connacht’s Director of Rugby, Andy Friend.

“Yet for us on the inside, there is enormous belief in our ability, and that is all that matters. We enter the semifinal with the same 23 who started last week, which is a great testament to our players’ toughness and resilience, and also to the work of our Athletic Performance & Medical Teams. All bodies are fit & healthy and have fully recovered from the travel down here to Cape Town.”

With a player like Fourie out of the match, there could be a huge glimmer of hope for Connacht. However, Friend said they won’t be “falling into the trap” thinking it will be easier.

“They are a quality rugby side and John is a quality coach,” said Friend.

“Ideally you want to have your best players out there and if your best players can’t get out there, then there is always someone sitting and waiting for an opportunity and no doubt, they will take that opportunity tomorrow [Saturday].

“We are under no false illusion after seeing that team. It is still going to be a great contest and we are going to have to be at our best to win.

“Players want to play on the biggest stages, so I am disappointed for him [Fourie] that he is not there, but for us, it doesn’t change anything.”

On the playing surface at Cape Town Stadium, Friend added: “We have been reading what everyone else has been reading that the surface is not great but at the same time it is beyond our control.

“We will wear the appropriate footwear and we will deal with it.”

Dublin showdown

In Dublin, Leinster will enter their semifinal against Munster as favourites, but it will not be easy as the visitors have gotten a boost after some injury concerns earlier in the week.

In a surprise move, Leinster also decided to give a few big names a rest ahead of next weekend’s Champions Cup Final.

There are four personnel changes and two positional switches to the Munster side that won away to Glasgow Warriors in last week’s quarterfinal.

Keith Earls recovered from his groin injury earlier this week and makes his first start since his 200th Munster appearance against Sharks three weeks ago.

Craig Casey, Ben Healy and John Hodnett also come into the side with Tadhg Beirne moving into the second row as Jack Crowley starts at inside centre.

Captain Peter O’Mahony (elbow) and Diarmuid Barron (shoulder) both came through training this week and are named in the starting XV.

Meanwhile, Leinster also received a boost with the news that Rónan Kelleher and Robbie Henshaw are fit and ready for the semifinal.

However, Hugo Keenan, Jordan Larmour, Dan Sheehan, Tadgh Furlong and Caelan Doris are all being rested this weekend.

Kelleher is set to feature for Leinster for the first time since January.

Jimmy O’Brien starts at fullback, with Tommy O’Brien and Dave Kearney named on the wings.

Charlie Ngatai and Henshaw are partnered in the centre, with Harry Byrne and Luke McGrath completing the backline.

In the pack, Michael Milne and Michael Ala’alatoa pack down either side of Kelleher in the front row.

Ryan Baird and Jason Jenkins form the heart of the pack for the second week in a row, while Max Deegan, Will Connors and Jack Conan are in the back row.

See below for Saturday’s teams and predictions!

Saturday, May 13:

Stormers v Connacht
(Cape Town Stadium, Cape Town – Kick-off: 16.00; 15.00 IRE & UK time; 14.00 GMT)

Prediction

@rugby365com: Stormers by nine points.

Teams:

Stormers: 15 Damian Willemse, 14 Angelo Davids, 13 Ruhan Nel, 12 Dan du Plessis, 11 Leolin Zas, 10 Manie Libbok, 9 Herschel Jantjies, 8 Evan Roos, 7 Hacjivah Dayimani, 6 Willie Engelbrecht, 5 Ruben van Heerden, 4 Ben-Jason Dixon, 3 Frans Malherbe, 2 Joseph Dweba, 1 Steven Kitshoff (captain).
Replacements: 16 JJ Kotze, 17 Ali Vermaak, 18 Neethling Fouche, 19 Connor Evans, 20 Marcel Theunissen, 21 Paul de Wet, 22 Jean-Luc du Plessis, 23 Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu.

Connacht: 15 Tiernan O’Halloran, 14 John Porch, 13 Tom Farrell, 12 Bundee Aki, 11 Mack Hansen, 10 Jack Carty, 9 Caolin Blade, 8 Cian Prendergast, 7 Conor Oliver, 6 Shamus Hurley-Langton, 5 Niall Murray, 4 Josh Murphy, 3 Finlay Bealham, 2 Dave Heffernan, 1 Denis Buckley.
Replacements: 16 Dylan Tierney-Martin, 17 Jordan Duggan, 18 Jack Aungier, 19 Oisín Dowling, 20 Jarrad Butler, 21 Kieran Marmion, 22 Tom Daly 23 Byron Ralston.

Referee: Mike Adamson (Scotland)
Assistant referees: Sam Grove-White (Scotland) & Hollie Davidson (Scotland)
TMO: Ben Blain (Scotland)

Leinster v Munster
(Landsdowne Road, Dublin – Kick-off: 17.30; 16.30 GMT)

Prediction

@rugby365com: Leinster by four points

Teams:

Leinster: 15 Jimmy O’Brien, 14 Tommy O’Brien, 13 Robbie Henshaw, 12 Charlie Ngatai, 11 Dave Kearney, 10 Harry Byrne, 9 Luke McGrath (captain), 8 Jack Conan, 7 Will Connors, 6 Max Deegan, 5 Jason Jenkins, 4 Ryan Baird, 3 Michael Ala’alatoa, 2 Rónan Kelleher, 1 Michael Milne
Replacements: 16 John McKee, 17 Cian Healy, 18 Thomas Clarkson, 19 Joe McCarthy, 20 Josh van der Flier, 21 Nick McCarthy, 22 Ciarán Frawley, 23 Liam Turner.

Munster: 15 Mike Haley, 14 Keith Earls, 13 Antoine Frisch, 12 Jack Crowley, 11 Shane Daly, 10 Ben Healy, 9 Craig Casey, 8 Gavin Coombes, 7 John Hodnett, 6 Peter O’Mahony (captain), 5 Tadhg Beirne, 4 Jean Kleyn, 3 Stephen Archer, 2 Diarmuid Barron, 1 Jeremy Loughman.
Replacements: 16 Niall Scannell, 17 Josh Wycherley, 18 Roman Salanoa, 19 Fineen Wycherley, 20 Jack O’Donoghue, 21 Neil Cronin, 22 Rory Scannell, 23 Alex Kendellen.

Referee: Frank Murphy (Ireland)
Assistant referees: Andrew Brace (Ireland) & Chris Busby (Ireland)
TMO: Ben Whitehouse (Wales)

Additional sources: SA Rugby & @URCOfficial