URC, Round Five - Teams and Predictions

SATURDAY PREVIEW: It would be an over-simplification to suggest it is a ‘Test’, but the sheer number of internationals has elevated the Shark Tank showdown to well beyond just a United Rugby Championship league encounter.

The Sharks, hovering well outside the top 10 on the standings, host the defending champion Glasgow Warriors at Kings Park in what is – with apologies to the Irish provinces – the match of the weekend.

With Aphelele Fassi, Lukhanyo Am, Andre Esterhuizen, Makazole Mapimpi, Jordan Hendrikse, Jaden Hendrikse, Phendulani Buthelezi, Eben Etzebeth (as captain), Vincent Koch, Bongi Mbonambi and Retshegofaditswe Nche starting, the home team has a heavy-duty look and feel about it.

Add four more Boks on the bench – Trevor Nyakane, Ruan Dreyer, Jason Jenkins and Grant Williams – then you see why the expectations are high for the Durban-based franchise to start a successful home run.

However, the Warriors have some heavy hitters of their own – Sebastian Cancelliere (Argentina), Sione Tuipulotu (Scotland, as captain), Jack Dempsey (Australia and Scotland), Rory Darge (Scotland captain), Matt Fagerson and Zander Fagerson.

Coached by South African Franco Smith, the Scottish franchise is up for a stern challenge as they embark on a two-week tour of South Africa.

“We are going to play two very hard and tough games on the road against teams that will have most of their internationals back,” Smith said.

Having given the bulk of his squad game-time in the opening four URC matches, he added that it was ‘important’ to have the bulk of the squad on the park.

“It makes my task difficult as they all play well and they make full use of it,” the Glasgow coach said.

“But continuity is going to be important now over the next couple of weeks.”

It’s the first home game of the season for the 14th-placed Sharks, following a last gasp-win in Newport and defeats out in Galway and Treviso.

Sharks coach John Plumtree said that while he has a ‘strong’ team on paper, the key is how they “come together” in a new environment – with a difference between the terminology from the international to the domestic stages.

“We have had a compromised week because of our travel [back from Europe], but that is the nature of this competition,” he added.

“I am relying on their experience.

“They are good at coming together very quickly.”

He said this week is like bringing a Barbarians team together, relying on the experienced players to gel quickly.

“This Sharks side will get better,” he said, but cautioned that this is a ‘really good’ Glasgow team.

“They have proven themselves time and again under pressure.

“They have their big players and it is going to be a massive challenge for us.”

In games like this, the foundation for victory is always laid up front, bringing into confrontation two massive sets of forwards.

“If we get the momentum we need [up front], it will give the time and space the backs need,” he told @rugby365com.

“They are not too dissimilar to us. If they get momentum and are on the front foot, they are deadly.

“There will be a lot of collisions and it will be physical – two packs going hard at each other and two sets of defence going hard at each other.

“It will be about who has those ‘soft moments’ that allow crucial tries in.

“That is why I am relying on those big boys to come through.”

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* Saturday’s drama start when Zebre hosts the Lions, one of only three remaining unbeaten sides, in Parma.

Lions coach Ivan van Rooyen is anticipating an “attacking cracker” at the Sergio Lanfranchi Stadium.

His team have shown a real eagerness to move the ball while scoring 15 tries in winning their first three league matches and he feels their Italian hosts will buy into that approach.

“If you want to make it open and want to play an expansive game, they are happy,” he said.

“It looks like they can thrive and survive under that, so I think it’s going to be an attacking cracker.”

Zebre will certainly be keen to rediscover a cutting edge.

Since crossing six times in their famous victory over Munster, they have only touched down once in the subsequent defeats to the Stormers and Glasgow.

Describing the conditions ahead of Saturday, Lions defence coach Jaque Fourie says they are expecting a bit of rain which will require his side to adapt and execute a suitable strategy.

“They said earlier in the week already that it is going to come down with a lot of rain, so we are quite comfortable to go into a kicking battle and playing in the right areas of the field – and then also to keep the ball through a lot of phases to score tries when we are in those areas.”

The former Springbok centre also cautioned not to look too far head, but instead to focus on getting over the Italians first.

“As players and coaches, those are the teams you want to play against, to measure yourself.

“If and when we win this weekend, next weekend is probably a top-of-the-table clash against Leinster – so we will give it our all against them next week.

“But we first need to do the job this weekend.

“Zebre are not an easy team, and if we are going in with that mindset – that it’s just going to be a walk in the park – we will be making a big mistake,” he added.

The Lions have won all three of their matches to sit third in the table, with a game in hand on the two sides above them – Leinster and Glasgow Warriors.

Van Rooyen said they are now coming out on top in games they would have lost a year ago, having learned how to “win ugly” where required.

He also feels they have become more attuned to the contrasting challenges presented by the five-country URC.

“It’s good fun. It’s probably the most variety of coaching styles and playing styles in any competition in world rugby,” he said.

“It is tricky, but isn’t that great for the development of coaches, players and systems, with guys getting exposed to this kind of rugby.

“I think it’s hugely beneficial to get players exposed to this week-in, week-out.

“It is very different to Super Rugby where the weather was generally quite nice. Here you can come up against the wind, the rain and the cold. That’s why it looks a bit more like Test matches.

“The first season, we were way behind with box kicks in terms of receiving those and creating opportunities from them. So it forced us to play differently, which is good for us. The wind and the rain force you to learn quickly.”

* The South African team in the most trouble is the Stormers, who just returned home after another humbling European tour and are last in the standings.

Stormers coach John Dobson said he is looking for his team to rediscover their ‘fizz’ now they are back on home soil.

The Cape Town outfit suffered defeats away to the Ospreys and Edinburgh, with a win over Zebre sandwiched in between.

“The next two games are important,” he said, adding that there is a determination to set the record straight.

“We’ve got the 2023 champions Munster and last year’s champions Glasgow Warriors.

“If we get through tomorrow [Saturday] and next week – two home games – and i If they go like most URC games we are in a different world, with three [wins] from five [starts].

“That makes tomorrow [Saturday] Super important.”

The other factor is that Munster, who is also looking to bounce back after last week’s loss to arch-rivals Leinster at a packed Croke Park, has a 100 percent URC record against the Stormers.

However, Dobson said there is not a ‘weight of history’ that they are winless against the Irish province.

“There is an awareness around that and we are not trying to hype Munster up, [but] they are a really good side.

“We need to be better to stop the trend [of losses], but we also haven’t talked about it too much.”

Munster attack coach Mike Prendergast said despite their poor start to the season, the Stormers still have quality all around.

“I know scoreline [a 7-38 loss] was quite heavy against Edinburgh, I don’t think the scoreline reflects the game,” Prendergast said.

“Much like us, just some small things, at times – finishing off those opportunities close to the line.

“I don’t look too much into what has happened the last few weeks.

“They are at home and have the quality and are dangerous.

“They will also be fired up and will be thinking about the last we met [in the 2023 Final] in the same stadium when we came out on top.”

* Cracking the miserly Jacques Nienaber defence will be the big challenge for Connacht as they welcome the league leaders Leinster to Galway.

Under the expert tutelage of the man who guided South Africa to World Cup glory last year, Leinster have conceded just three tries in their last three matches.

So Connacht coach Pete Wilkins is well aware of the task facing his troops as they take on the table toppers, who have racked up maximum points so far this season.

“There is such a clear identity to their defensive structure and intent, so it’s about being good enough to deal with it,” he said.

“It requires calm heads and a lot of accuracy to get either through it or around it. It’s a brilliant challenge for us.”

Outlining Nienaber’s impact, Leinster captain Caelan Doris said: “Our defence has been a good area of growth.

“There’s a clarity and understanding with Jacques’s plan, so that’s been good. He’s brought an extra level of aggression and the mindset of wanting to suffocate teams and using our defence as a weapon to get the ball back.

“He’s a great fella to have around. He’s very energetic, enthusiastic, he enjoys a pint and he’s just good for the environment in general.”

Reflecting on Leinster’s start to the season, No.8 Doris said: “We are 20 from 20, which is ideal. Performance-wise, it hasn’t been perfect, but it’s been pretty good at times.”

On the meeting with Connacht, he added: “It will be a hostile atmosphere down there.

“They are loud, pretty boisterous, the Galway people. It will be good. It’s always a tough challenge there.”

All the Saturday teams and predictions follow below …

Zebre v Lions
(Stadio Lanfranchi, Parma – Kick-off: 13.30; 11.30 GMT; 13.30 SA Time)

Prediction

@rugby365com: Lions by 14 points

Teams

Zebre: 15 Geronimo Prisciantelli, 14 Jacopo Trulla, 13 Giulio Bertaccini, 12 Luca Morisi, 11 Simone Gesi, 10 Giovanni Montemauri, 9 Alessandro Fusco, 8 Giovanni Licata, 7 Iacopo Bianchi, 6 Davide Ruggeri, 5 Andrea Zambonin, 4 Matteo Canali, 3 Juan Pitinari, 2 Tommaso Di Bartolomeo, 1 Danilo Fischetti (captain).
Replacements: 16 Luca Bigi, 17 Luca Rizzoli, 18 Matteo Nocera, 19 Leonard Krumov, 20 Luca Andreani, 21 Giacomo Milano, 22 Gonzalo Garcia, 23 Fetuli Paea.

Lions: 15 Quan Horn, 14 Richard Kriel, 13 Henco van Wyk, 12 Marius Louw, 11 Edwill van der Merwe, 10 Sanele Nohamba, 9 Morné van den Berg, 8 Francke Horn (captain), 7 Jarod Cairns, 6 Johannes Pretorius, 5 Ruben Schoeman, 4 Reinhard Nothnagel, 3 Conraad van Vuuren, 2 Jaco Visagie, 1 Juan Schoeman.
Replacements: 16 Pieter Botha, 17 Heiko Pohlmann, 18 RF Schoeman, 19 Ruan Delport, 20 Renzo du Plessis, 21 Nico Steyn, 22 Erich Cronje, 23 Rabz Maxwane.

Referee: Ben Connor (Wales)
Assistant referees: Ben Whitehouse (Wales) and Rhys Jones (Wales)
TMO: Aled Griffiths (Wales)

Sharks v Glasgow Warriors
(Kings Park, Durban – Kick-off: 15.45; 13.45 GMT; 14.45 IRE & UK time)

Prediction

@rugby365com: Sharks by six points

Teams

Sharks: 15 Aphelele Fassi, 14 Eduan Keyter, 13 Lukhanyo Am, 12 Andre Esterhuizen, 11 Makazole Mapimpi, 10 Jordan Hendrikse, 9 Jaden Hendrikse, 8 Phendulani Buthelezi, 7 Emmanuel Tshituka, 6 Siyamthanda Kolisi, 5 Emile van Heerden, 4 Eben Etzebeth (captain), 3 Vincent Koch, 2 Bongi Mbonambi, 1 Retshegofaditswe Nche.
Replacements: 16 Fez Mbatha, 17 Trevor Nyakane, 18 Ruan Dreyer, 19 Jason Jenkins, 20 James Venter, 21 Grant Williams, 22 Siya Masuku, 23 Jurenzo Julius.

Glasgow Warriors: 15 Josh McKay, 14 Sebastian Cancelliere, 13 Stafford McDowall, 12 Sione Tuipulotu (captain), 11 Kyle Rowe, 10 Tom Jordan, 9 George Horne, 8 Jack Dempsey, 7 Rory Darge, 6 Matt Fagerson, 5 Scott Cummings, 4 Max Williamson, 3 Zander Fagerson, 2 Gregor Hiddleston, 1 Nathan McBeth.
Replacements: 16 Johnny Matthews, 17 Rory Sutherland, 18 Sam Talakai, 19 Alex Samuel, 20 Gregor Brown, 21 Henco Venter, 22 Jamie Dobie, 23 Adam Hastings.

Referee: Chris Busby (Ireland)
Assistant referees: Marius van der Westhuizen (South Africa) & Stephan Geldenhuys (South Africa)
TMO: Andrew Brace (Ireland)

Stormers v Munster
(Cape Town Stadium, Cape Town – Kick-off: 18.00; 16.00 GMT; 17.00 IRE & UK times)

Prediction

@rugby365com: Munster by three points

Teams

Stormers: 15 Warrick Gelant, 14 Suleiman Hartzenberg, 13 Ruhan Nel, 12 Dan du Plessis (captain), 11 Leolin Zas, 10 Damian Willemse, 9 Paul de Wet, 8 Keke Morabe, 7 Ben-Jason Dixon, 6 Marcel Theunissen, 5 John Schickerling, 4 Adre Smith, 3 Neethling Fouche, 2 Joseph Dweba, 1 Sti Sithole.
Replacements: 16 Andre-Hugo Venter, 17 Brok Harris, 18 Sazi Sandi, 19 Ruben van Heerden, 20 Dave Ewers, 21 Louw Nel, 22 Herschel Jantjies, 23 Jurie Matthee.

Munster: 15 Mike Haley, 14 Calvin Nash, 13 Tom Farrell, 12 Alex Nankivell, 11 Shane Daly, 10 Jack Crowley, 9 Conor Murray, 8 Jack O’Donoghue, 7 Alex Kendellen, 6 Tom Ahern, 5 Tadhg Beirne (captain), 4 Jean Kleyn, 3 John Ryan, 2 Niall Scannell, 1 Jeremy Loughman.
Replacements: 16 Eoghan Clarke, 17 Kieran Ryan, 18 Stephen Archer, 19 Fineen Wycherley, 20 Ruadhán Quinn, 21 Ethan Coughlan, 22 Billy Burns, 23 Seán O’Brien.

Referee: Mike Adamson (Scotland)
Assistant referees: Aimee Barrett-Theron (South Africa) & AJ Jacobs (South Africa)
TMO: Hollie Davidson (Scotland)

Edinburgh v Cardiff
(Hive Stadium, Edinburgh – Kick-off: 17.15; 16.15 GMT)

Prediction

@rugby365com: Edinburgh by 12 points

Teams

Edinburgh: 15 Wes Goosen, 14 Darcy Graham, 13 Matt Currie, 12 Mosese Tuipulotu, 11 Duhan van der Merwe, 10 Ross Thompson, 9 Ali Price, 8 Magnus Bradbury, 7 Ben Muncaster, 6 Luke Crosbie, 5 Grant Gilchrist (captain), 4 Marshall Sykes, 3 D’Arcy Rae, 2 Paddy Harrison, 1 Boan Venter.
Replacements: 16 Ewan Ashman, 17 Pierre Schoeman, 18 Paul Hill, 19 Jamie Hodgson, 20 Hamish Watson, 21 Ben Vellacott, 22 Cammy Scott, 23 Matt Scott.

Cardiff: 15 Cam Winnett, 14 Gabriel Hamer-Webb, 13 Mason Grady, 12 Rory Jennings, 11 Iwan Stephens, 10 Callum Sheedy, 9 Aled Davies, 8 Alun Lawrence, 7 Thomas Young, 6 James Botham, 5 Teddy Williams, 4 Josh McNally, 3 Rhys Litterick, 2 Dafydd Hughes, 1 Ed Byrne.
Replacements: 16 Evan Lloyd, 17 Danny Southworth, 18 Keiron Assiratti, 19 Rory Thornton, 19 Alex Mann, 20 Mackenzie Martin, 21 Johan Mulder, 22 Ben Thomas.

Referee: Morné Ferreira (South Africa)
Assistant referees: Fin Brown (Scotland) and Michael Todd (Scotland)
TMO: Griffin Colby (South Africa)

Connacht v Leinster
(Sportsground, Galway – Kick-off: 19.35; 18.35 GMT)

Prediction

@rugby365com: Leinster by 10 points

Teams

Connacht: 15 Piers O’Conor, 14 Shayne Bolton, 13 David Hawkshaw, 12 Bundee Aki, 11 Santiago Cordero, 10 Josh Ioane, 9 Ben Murphy, 8 Paul Boyle, 7 Sean O’Brien, 6 Cian Prendergast, 5 Darragh Murray, 4 Joe Joyce, 3 Finlay Bealham, 2 Dave Heffernan, 1 Denis Buckley.
Replacements: 16 Dylan Tierney-Martin, 17 Peter Dooley, 18 Jack Aungier, 19 Niall Murray, 20 Sean Jansen, 21 Caolin Blade, 22 Cathal Forde, 23 Hugh Gavin.

Leinster: 15 Hugo Keenan, 14 Liam Turner, 13 Garry Ringrose, 12 Jamie Osborne, 11 Andrew Osborne, 10 Ciarán Frawley, 9 Jamison Gibson-Park, 8 James Culhane, 7 Will Connors, 6 Max Deegan, 5 James Ryan (captain), 4 RG Snyman, 3 Rabah Slimani, 2 Gus McCarthy, 1 Jack Boyle.
Replacements: 16 Stephen Smyth, 17 Andrew Porter, 18 Thomas Clarkson, 19 Brian Deeny, 20 Scott Penny, 21 Fintan Gunne, 22 Ross Byrne, 23 Hugh Cooney.

Referee: Eoghan Cross (Ireland)
Assistant referees: Keane Davison (Ireland) and Jonny Erskine (Ireland)
TMO: Leo Colgan (Ireland)

Dragons v Benetton
(Rodney Parade, Newport – Kick-off: 19.35; 18.35 GMT; 20.35 Italy time)

Prediction

@rugby365com: Benetton by eight points

Teams

Dragons: 15 Angus O’Brien, 14 Rio Dyer, 13 Joe Westwood, 12 Aneurin Owen, 11 Jared Rosser, 10 Lloyd Evans, 9 Rhodri Williams, 8 Taine Basham, 7 Harri Keddie, 6 Ryan Woodman, 5 Ben Carter (captain), 4 Shane Lewis-Hughes, 3 Leon Brown, 2 Brodie Coghlan, 1 Rodrigo Martinez.
Replacements: 16 Oli Burrows, 17 Cameron Jones, 18 Chris Coleman, 19 Steve Cummins, 20 Dan Lydiate, 21 Dane Blacker, 22 Steff Hughes, 23 Ewan Rosser.

Benetton: 15 Matt Gallagher, 14 Ignacio Mendy, 13 Tommaso Menoncello, 12 Ignacio Brex, 11 Louis Lynagh, 10 Jacob Umaga, 9 Andy Uren, 8 Lorenzo Cannone, 7 Michele Lamaro (captain), 6 Alessandro Izekor, 5 Federico Ruzza, 4 Niccolò Cannone, 3 Simone Ferrari, 2 Bautista Bernasconi, 1 Thomas Gallo.
Replacements: 16 Marco Manfredi, 17 Destiny Aminu, 18 Enzo Avaca, 19 Eli Snyman, 20 Manuel Zuliani, 21 Alessandro Garbisi, 22 Tomas Albornoz, 23 Malakai Fekitoa.

Referee: Peter Martin (Ireland)
Assistant referees: Ben Breakspear (Wales) and Gareth Newman (Wales)
TMO: Colin Stanley (Ireland)

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* Additional reporting by @URCOfficial